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'End of falling inflation' to dampen spending over Christmas
Nov 26, 2024
Shoppers’ ability to afford Christmas treats has been put under threat as retailers warned November could mark a turning point for inflation, with the recent fall in prices slowing amid increased fresh produce costs and fewer discounts on the shelves.
According to figures released by British Retail Consortium (BRC) today (26), shop price deflation was at 0.6 per cent in November, up from deflation of 0.8 per cent in the previous month. This is slightly above the 3-month average rate of -0.7 per cent. Shop price annual growth remained its lowest rate since September 2021.
Food inflation slowed to 1.8 per cent in November, down from 1.9 per cent in October. This is below the 3-month average rate of 2.0 per cent. The annual rate continues to ease in this category and inflation remained at its lowest rate since November 2021.
Fresh Food inflation accelerated in November, to 1.2 per cent, up from 1.0 per cent in October. This is in line with the 3-month average rate of 1.2 per cent. Inflation was its lowest since November 2021.
Ambient Food inflation decelerated to 2.7 per cent in November, down from 3.1 per cent in October. This is below the 3-month average rate of 3.0 per cent and remained at its lowest since February 2022.
Helen Dickinson, Chief Executive of the BRC, said, “November was the first time in 17 months that shop price inflation has been higher than the previous month, albeit remaining overall in negative territory. Food prices increased for fresh products such as seafood, which is more vulnerable to high import and processing costs, especially during winter."Tea prices also remained high as poor harvests in key producing regions continued to impact supply. While coffee prices experienced a momentary dip, price rises are imminent as global coffee prices approach record highs. In non-food, while many retailers unwound some of their discounting, there are still many bargains across fashion and furniture.
"Customers looking to upgrade their electricals were able to pick up some great deals in early Black Friday sales. With significant price pressures on the horizon, November’s figures may signal the end of falling inflation.
"The industry faces £7 billion of additional costs in 2025 because of changes to Employers’ National Insurance Contributions, business rates, an increase to the minimum wage and a new packaging levy.
"Retail already operates on slim margins, so these new costs will inevitably lead to higher prices. If the government wants to prevent this, it must reconsider the existing timelines for the new packaging levy, while ensuring any changes to business rates offer a meaningful reduction for all retailers as early as possible.”
Mike Watkins, Head of Retailer and Business Insight, NielsenIQ, said: “Shoppers are still being cautious by shopping savvy for the essentials and holding back their discretionary spend, so the lower level of inflation should help sentiment ahead of Black Friday promotions. And with lower inflation than this time last year, many food retailers are extending offers and discounts to help sales momentum in December.”The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), which produces the tracker for the supermarket, predicted that households will face “dampened spending power over the festive period”. It said the rising cost of essentials would be particularly concerning for households on lower incomes.
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A BP petrol station in Tonbridge, south east of London on April 30, 2022
Photo by BEN STANSALL/AFP via Getty Images
BP renews UK partnership with Retail Insight tackling food waste
Nov 26, 2024
Global oil and gas company and forecourt retailer BP has renewed its partnership with Retail Insight, the leading provider of in-store execution software, for an additional three years in the UK, as it continues to reduce food waste across its store estate while enhancing operational efficiencies.
BP, which operates over 300 convenience stores as part of its partnership with M&S Food, has expressed ambition to grow its convenience business, aiming to become the first choice for customers on the roadside.
Since partnering with Retail Insight in 2019, BP has used Retail Insight’s AI-powered solution, WasteInsight, to deliver value and customer satisfaction by offering dynamic markdowns on goods nearing expiry, providing reduced prices to customers.
A cloud-based software solution, WasteInsight provides data-led, actionable insights that support businesses’ entire waste journeys. Analysing foundational retail data, the solution applies a Machine Learning (ML) model to provide dynamic markdown prices that encourage sell-through and reduce waste.
As well as enabling dynamic discounts, WasteInsight also addresses expiration management, offers more efficient donations to charities and drives improved forecasting accuracy, allowing retailers to sell more while wasting less.
“The WasteInsight solution has delivered impressive results across our estate,” Hannah Munns, UK trading director at BP, commented.
“The implementation of dynamic markdowns has not only reduced waste but also significantly improved our sell-through. We are looking forward to seeing continued improvements over the coming years.”
Kieran O’Brien, VP customer success EMEA at Retail Insight, added: “We are delighted to be able to extend our relationship with BP for a further three years. It’s always rewarding to see the benefits that our dynamic markdown solution can bring, and we look forward to continuing to improve the outputs from WasteInsight for BP over the next three years. Together, we will continue to set new benchmarks in waste reduction and operational efficiency.”
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This illustration picture shows a plastic bag drifting in the Bothnia Gulf on May 3, 2023 near Pietarsaari in western Finland, during the late spring as the sea-ice is slowly melting.
Photo by OLIVIER MORIN/AFP via Getty Images
Deep divisions on display at plastic pollution treaty talks
Nov 26, 2024
A final round of talks on a treaty to curb plastic pollution opened on Monday, with deep differences between nations emerging almost immediately.
The meeting started just hours after a chaotic end to the COP29 climate talks in Baku, where delegates agreed to a boost in climate funding that developing countries slammed as insufficient.
Opening the plastics meeting, the Ecuadorian diplomat chairing the talks warned nations that the conference was about "far more than drafting an international treaty".
"It is about humanity rising to meet an existential challenge," Luis Vayas Valdivieso told a plenary in South Korea's Busan.
Plastic pollution is so ubiquitous that it has been found in clouds, the deepest ocean trenches and even human breastmilk.
And while almost everyone agrees it is a problem, there is less consensus on how to solve it.
Among the most contentious issues are whether the treaty should cap plastic production, a possible ban on chemicals feared toxic to human health and how to pay for implementation.
The deep differences have dogged four previous rounds of talks over the last two years, resulting in a lengthy and contradictory draft treaty running over 70 pages.
Valdivieso has produced an alternative document intended to synthesise the views of delegations and move negotiations forward.
But several countries, including Russia and India, immediately objected to it.
"The reality is that many countries do not see themselves represented in this paper," warned Saudi Arabia's Abdelrahman Al Gwaiz, speaking on behalf of the Arab group.
In 2019, the world produced around 460 million tonnes of plastic, a figure that has doubled since 2000, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.
Plastic production is expected to triple by 2060.
'Not going to wait'
Some countries, including the so-called High Ambition Coalition (HAC), which groups many African, Asian and European nations, want the treaty to address the entire "lifecycle" of plastics.
That means limiting production, redesigning products for reuse and recycling, and addressing waste.
More than 90 percent of plastic is not recycled, with over 20 million tonnes leaking into the environment, often after just a few minutes of use.
On the other side are countries, largely oil producers like Saudi Arabia and Russia, who want a downstream focus on waste alone.
Plastic accounts for around three percent of global emissions, mostly linked to its production from fossil fuels.
The HAC wants binding global targets on reducing production and warned ahead of the Busan talks that "vested interests" should not be allowed to hamper a deal.
Some observers believe the talks are likely to falter and be extended - especially after the difficult negotiations at UN climate and biodiversity conferences in recent weeks.
But by Monday afternoon, Valdivieso won agreement for negotiations to begin on the basis of his slimmed-down document.
"I thank you very much for your flexibility," he told the room.
The short time frame has some environmental groups worried an agreement will be watered down to ensure something is signed.
"The majority is there" for a strong treaty, said Eirik Lindebjerg, WWF global plastics policy lead.
"The big question the rest of the week is whether they will move ahead with the necessary ambition or hide behind the few spoilers to water down language and make weak compromises."
Key to any accord will be the US and China, neither of which have openly sided with either bloc.
Earlier this year, Washington raised hopes among environmentalists by signalling support for some limits on production, a position that is reportedly now being rowed back.
The election of Donald Trump has also raised questions about how ambitious the US delegation will be, and whether negotiators should seek their support if a treaty is unlikely to be ratified by Washington.
Despite the challenging start, the UN Environment Programme chief counselled patience.
"We are only in the first few hours," said Inger Andersen, noting the Paris climate agreement had taken over two decades to reach clear targets for global warming.
"We have to get something with targets and we're not going to wait 21 years for it."
(AFP)
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Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves is seen during a discussion at the Annual CBI Conference, at Queen Elizabeth II Centre on November 25, 2024 in London, England.
Photo by Leon Neal/Getty Images
Reeves vows no repeat of budget tax rises after employers' warning
Nov 26, 2024
Chancellor Rachel Reeves on Monday said she would never have to repeat the tax hikes of her first budget, an attempt to reassure businesses that were caught off-guard by a 25 billion-pound tax rise.
The Confederation of British Industry said a survey of its members showed 61 per cent viewed Britain as a less attractive place to invest and nearly half intended to cut staff levels or lower pay rises after a big increase in employers' social security payments.
The Labour Party's first budget in 14 years raised taxes by £40 billion in all. Prime minister Keir Starmer and Reeves said the tax increases would allow them to spend more on public services including the National Health Service.
Reeves said the budget had provided "the stability and platform that we need to move forward" and that business could now be certain in tax rates moving forward, adding she had heard a lot of feedback from the budget but not many alternatives.
"I'm really clear: I'm not coming back with more borrowing or more taxes," Reeves said at the CBI's annual conference, adding the budget had wiped the slate clean.
"As a result, we won't have to do a budget like this ever again."
CBI chief executive Rain Newton-Smith said that the National Insurance changes "caught us all off guard" and contributed to creating "a heavy burden on business."
Starmer earlier said that he wasn't surprised that budget measures had been criticised by those it impacted, adding the government had to take "big calls" to protect public services.
The CBI's complaint comes amid broader signs of an economic slowdown in Britain both before and after the budget, a blow to Reeves and Starmer who have pledged to make economic growth a priority.
But Britain's budget watchdog has said Reeves has left little room to absorb any increase in government borrowing costs without either raising taxes or missing her goal to reduce debt.
"Tax rises like this must never again be simply done to business," Newton-Smith said.
Keith Anderson, chief executive of Scottish Power, said there was a "changed atmosphere" compared to pre-election Labour events when the party was burnishing its pro-business credentials.
"It's important that government and business get back around the table," he told Reuters before hosting the conversation with Reeves.
"They need to get on the front foot and tell the story of how they get the growth, how they get the investment," he said, adding that any backtracking could knock confidence.
Britain has low investment by international standards and many economists see this as a key cause of its weaker productivity compared to the US, Germany and France.
(Reuters)
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Detection dog, Griff, helped to locate stashes of illegal tobacco products (Photo: Kent County Council)
Millions of illicit vapes and tobacco products seized by Trading Standards
Nov 25, 2024
More than a million illegal vapes were seized by Trading Standards in 2023/2024, new data released today from National Trading Standards (NTS) and the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) show.
A joint initiative named Operation Joseph has tracked over 1.19 million illegal vapes removed from sale across England, a 59 per cent increase in the number seized compared to the previous year. The products seized failed to meet basic UK safety standards, with most containing excess nicotine levels.
New data also shines a spotlight on sales of vapes to children. In Q4 2023-24, almost a quarter (24 per cent) of the 775 test purchases conducted in-person by Trading Standards resulted in illegal sales to under 18s.
Meanwhile, Operation CeCe — a joint initiative between NTS and HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) running since 2021 — continues to disrupt the illicit tobacco trade. In 2023-24, over 19 million illicit cigarettes and more than 5,103 kg of hand-rolling tobacco worth £11.7 million were seized by Trading Standards. Since the operation started three years ago, 46 million illicit cigarettes and 12,600kg of hand-rolling tobacco have been seized, disrupting the illegal trade which undermines efforts to drive down smoking rates – including taxation policies.
“The protection of communities, public health and the safeguarding of honest businesses who are struggling to compete with the flood of illegal products lies at the heart of what Trading Standards does,” said Lord Michael Bichard, Chair of National Trading Standards.
“Trading Standards has seized nearly 1.2 million illegal vapes and more than £26 million worth of illicit tobacco so far. But the reality is further action is necessary to remove more illegal – and in many cases dangerous – products from sale.
“Illicit tobacco undermines legitimate retailers, funds wider crime, and harms public health while depriving our vital public services of around £2.2 billion a year,” said Richard Las, Director, HMRC Fraud Investigation Service.
“We will continue to work with partners like trading standards to tackle this organised criminal trade that harms our communities. These criminals don’t care who they sell to including children.
“We urge anyone with information about the smuggling, distribution or sale of illicit tobacco to report it online.”
Kate Pike, Lead Officer for Tobacco and Vaping for the Chartered Trading Standards Institute said: “Trading Standards officers recognise that it is really important that adult smokers are able to switch to legal compliant vaping products which carry a fraction of the risk of their lethal tobacco habit. These figures show we are working incredibly hard to remove illegal vapes from our communities and to support businesses not to sell to children. We encourage anyone with information about businesses ignoring the law to report to us so we can continue to target our enforcement resources most effectively.”
Speaking on behalf of the government, Andrew Gwynne, Minister for Public Health and Prevention added: “This shows just how many illegal and harmful vapes are on our streets, putting consumers and children at risk. To further crack down on illicit trade of tobacco products and vapes, we are investing an extra £10 million to keep these harmful products out of the hands of kids.
“The Tobacco and Vapes Bill will strengthen enforcement activity, allowing Trading Standards to take swifter action to enforce the law, including on non-compliant products, and closing loopholes.”
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