All vegetable oil prices set to jump as Indonesia's palm oil export ban leaves buyers with no plan B
This photo taken on April 7, 2022 shows workers transferring crude palm oil to tanker trucks at the Tanjung Emas seaport in Semarang, Indonesia before being distributed to cooking oil packaging factories. (Photo by DAFFA RAMYA KANZUDDIN/AFP via Getty Images)
Global edible oil consumers have no option but to pay top dollar for supplies after Indonesia's surprise palm oil export ban forced buyers to seek alternatives, already in short supply due to adverse weather and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
The move by the world's biggest palm oil producer to ban exports from Thursday will lift prices of all major edible oils including palm oil, soyoil, sunflower oil and rapeseed oil, industry watchers predict. That will place extra strain on cost-sensitive consumers in Asia and Africa hit by higher fuel and food prices.
"Indonesia's decision affects not only palm oil availability, but vegetable oils worldwide," James Fry, chairman of commodities consultancy LMC International, told Reuters.
Palm oil - used in everything from cakes and frying fats to cosmetics and cleaning products - accounts for nearly 60 per cent of global vegetable oil shipments, and top producer Indonesia accounts for around a third of all vegetable oil exports. It announced the export ban on April 22, until further notice, in a move to tackle rising domestic prices.
"This is happening when the export tonnages of all other major oils are under pressure: soybean oil due to droughts in South America; rapeseed oil due to disastrous canola crops in Canada; and sunflower oil because of Russia's war on Ukraine," Fry said.
Vegetable oil prices have already risen more than 50 per cent in the past six months as factors from labour shortages in Malaysia to droughts in Argentina and Canada - the biggest exporters of soyoil and canola oil respectively - curtailed supplies.
Buyers were hoping a bumper sunflower crop from top exporter Ukraine would ease the tightness, but supplies from Kyiv have stopped because of what Russia calls its "special operation" in the country.
This had prompted importers to bank on palm oil being able to plug the supply gap until Indonesia's shock ban delivered a "double whammy" to buyers, said Atul Chaturvedi, president of trade body the Solvent Extractors Association of India (SEA).
Importers such as India, Bangladesh and Pakistan will try to increase palm oil purchases from Malaysia, but the world's second-biggest palm oil producer cannot fill the gap created by Indonesia, Chaturvedi said.
Indonesia typically supplies nearly half of India's total palm oil imports, while Pakistan and Bangladesh import nearly 80 per cent of their palm oil from Indonesia.
"Nobody can compensate for the loss of Indonesian palm oil. Every country is going to suffer," said Rasheed JanMohd, chairman of Pakistan Edible oil Refiners Association (PEORA).
In February, prices of vegetable oils jumped to a record high as sunflower oil supplies were disrupted from the Black Sea region.
The price rise raised working capital requirements for oil refiners, who were holding lower inventories than normal in anticipation of a pullback in prices, said a Mumbai-based dealer with a global trading firm.
Instead, all oil prices have rallied further.
"Refiners have been caught on the wrong foot. Now they can't afford to wait for a few weeks. They have to make purchases to run plants," the dealer said.
As Indonesia has allowed loading until April 28, consuming countries will have enough supply for the first half of May, but could face shortages from the second half, said a refiner based in Dhaka.
South Asian refiners will only slowly release oil into the market as they know supplies are limited, he said.
In India, the world's biggest vegetable oil importer, palm oil prices rose by nearly 5 per cent over the weekend as industry prices in shortages in the coming months. Prices also rose in Pakistan and Bangladesh.
Leading wholesale buying and marketing group Sugro UK has collaborated with Britvic Soft Drinks, a global organisation with 39 much-loved brands sold in over 100 countries, to launch a groundbreaking Fast Food Sample Box.
The sample box is specifically designed for ICS UK LTD customers, giving them a unique opportunity to sample and experience new Fast Food soft drinks offerings firsthand.
The new Fast Food Sample Box offers ICS customers an exclusive opportunity to explore a curated selection of Britvic's best-selling and new product offerings that drives incremental sales. This trial initiative is designed to provide Fast Food retailers with a hands-on experience of market-leading products, helping them identify key opportunities for growth in the Fast-Food soft drinks categories.
Sugro UK's Fast Food Sample Box represents a pioneering approach to boosting customer engagement, providing tailored solutions that meet the evolving demands of today’s consumers. This initiative is the first of its kind in the sector, giving ICS customers exclusive access to products that are proven to drive sales and offering them a competitive edge in their local markets.
Alice Graham, GB Head of Dining Route to Market Wholesale, "We are delighted to collaborate with both Sugro and ICS with this initiative. The fast-food market has seen double digit growth over the last few years and the growth is set to continue. This initiative with ICS, a leader in fast food wholesale, underscores our commitment to supporting the growth of Britvic brands and advancing our partnerships with fast food establishments.”
Sid Musa, Manager at ICS (UK) added, “At ICS UK LTD, we are thrilled to partner with Sugro UK and Britvic on this industry-first initiative. The Fast-Food Sample Box gives our fast-food customers a unique opportunity to experience top-tier products firsthand, empowering them to make informed decisions that can truly elevate their offerings. We’re confident this exclusive initiative will help our customers stay competitive and drive growth in an ever-evolving market.”
Yulia Petitt, Head of Commercial and Marketing at Sugro UK commented: “We are incredibly excited about the partnership with Britvic delivered with excellence by our member – ICS Ltd. Fast Food sector is a big part of the group commercial strategy, so we see it as a huge opportunity for the group.”
Sugro UK is proudly owned by its 90 plus independent wholesale members, with a combined turnover of over £2.5 billion. The group was recently voted number one across all buying groups in the recent Advantage Group Survey.
British plant-based ready meal maker Allplants has filed a notice of intention to appoint administrators, citing ongoing financial losses, stated recent reports.
Allplants, known as the UK’s largest vegan ready meal brand, has faced mounting losses over recent years. Filing the notice provides the company with a critical window to explore options to avoid liquidation, such as restructuring, refinancing, or negotiating a sale.
According to the founder and CEO Jonathan Petrides, Allplants is working closely with insolvency specialists Interpath Advisory to assess “all possible options for restructuring, refinancing, and ensuring the sustainability of Allplants".
The reports added that while the prospect of a buyer offers some hope, failure to finalise a deal would likely lead to the company’s remaining stock being sold off to pay creditors. The development underscores the challenges faced by plant-based food companies as they navigate a competitive and increasingly crowded market.
Allplants started off as a direct-to-consumer brand in 2016, made its retail debut in November 2022, listing its meals at Planet Organic and several independent stores, as well as online grocer Ocado. It witnessed instant success, selling six million meals within the first three months and becoming the second-most purchased frozen meal brand on the latter platform.
Allplants has raised £67m across several financing rounds from investors including Molten Ventures, Felix Capital, Octopus Ventures, The Craftery, and professional footballers Chris Smalling and Kieran Gibbs.
Allplants’s move to appoint administrators is indicative of the distressed vegan ready meal category in the UK. It was among the categories that have witnessed a drop-off in sales recently, falling by 20 per cent between 2022 and 2023, according to Circana data commissioned by the Good Food Institute, which attributed it to cost-of-living pressures that led shoppers to cut back on non-essential and convenience items.
The country’s largest meat-free company, Quorn, posted pre-tax losses of £63m in 2023, a fourfold increase from the £15m it lost the year before. Meatless Farm and VBites also came close to the brink, before being rescued by VFC (now the Vegan Food Group) and owner Heather Mills, respectively.
Entrepreneur and businessperson Stanley Morrice, an influential figure in the retail and wholesale sectors, received an Honorary Doctorate from the University of Stirling at Stirling’s winter graduation held today (22).
Stanley, from Fraserburgh, is being recognised for his services to Scottish food, drink and agriculture. He entered the sector as a school leaver. In 1993, he joined Aberdeen-based convenience stores Aberness Foods, which traded as Mace. He rose to become Sales Director, boosting income by 50 per cent and tripling profits, and went on to be Managing Director, successfully leading the business through a strategic sale to supermarket group Somerfield.
Throughout a stellar business career, Stanley has set up, led, managed and sold more than 100 companies, from retail, wholesale and property to coaching and mentoring firms, in the UK and internationally.
An MBA graduate in retailing and wholesaling from the University of Stirling and Chair of the University of Stirling Management School’s International Advisory Board, Stanley was recognised with an MBE in 2022 for his work to support sustainable food and drink production in north-east Scotland.
Collecting his degree along with more than 300 other graduates at Friday morning’s ceremony, Stanley said, “I am deeply honoured to receive this recognition from the University of Stirling, where I completed my MBA in 1998. The University has played a pivotal role in shaping my career, and it has been a privilege to serve as Chair of the International Advisory Board at Stirling Management School since early 2020.
“This honorary degree reflects the University's commitment to cultivating industry partnerships and its dedication to preparing students for success in the business world. I was grateful for the opportunity to contribute to Stirling's mission of fostering innovation and developing future leaders.”
Professor Sir Gerry McCormac, Principal and Vice-Chancellor of the University of Stirling, said: “We are delighted to be awarding an Honorary Doctorate to Stanley Morrice, who has been an influential and exemplary figure in business and entrepreneurship, and in his advisory role at the University of Stirling. We know Stanley’s accomplishments, impact and leadership will be an inspiration to those graduating alongside him this week.”
In total, more than 1,000 students will graduate from the University of Stirling this week. Three ceremonies are being held across two days (21 – 22 November) as students celebrate their academic achievements alongside their families, friends and University staff.
British consumers have turned less pessimistic following the government's first budget and the US presidential election and they are showing more appetite for spending in the run-up to Christmas, according to a new survey.
The GfK Consumer Confidence Index, the longest-running measure of British consumer sentiment, rose to -18 in November, its highest since August and up from -21 in October which was its lowest since March.
Economists polled by Reuters had expected a deterioration in the confidence indicator to -22. Neil Bellamy, GfK's consumer insights director, said consumers seemed to have moved past their nervousness in the run-up to the 30 October budget and the 4 November US elections.
Finance minister Rachel Reeves announced a big increase in taxes on 30 October but the burden fell mostly on businesses rather than individuals.
Bellamy said it was too soon to say a corner had been turned. "As recent data shows, inflation has yet to be tamed, people are still feeling acute cost-of-living pressures, and it will take time for the UK's new government to deliver on its promise of 'change'," he said.
All five of the five components of the GfK's survey rose this month, led by a gauge of shoppers' willingness to make expensive purchases which rose five point to -16.
The survey was conducted between 30 October and 15 November and was based on the responses of 2,001 people.
GfK’s survey reported modest improvements in consumer measures of their personal finances and the general economic situation over the next 12 months. The figures clash with a separate survey of 1,500 households which showed growing pessimism over job security, according to S&P Intelligence.
“Consumer confidence continues to be variable but ability to spend depends on household circumstance,” Linda Ellett, UK head of consumer and retail at KPMG, said. “Inflation and interest rates having not yet sufficiently fallen and a toughening labour market are all weighing on the minds of many people.”
The government announced a £20 billion rise in employer national insurance contributions at the budget, as part of its promise not to hit “working people” with extra levies. Labour has also cut back on winter fuel payments for all pensioners, and said it will boost pay for public sector workers this year.
British retail sales fell by much more than expected in October, according to official data that added to other signs of a loss of momentum in the economy in the run-up to the first budget of prime minister Keir Starmer's new government.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said sales volumes have fallen by 0.7 per cent in October. A Reuters poll of economists had forecast a monthly fall of 0.3 per cent in sales volumes from September.
The drop was the sharpest since June when sales fell by 1.0 per cent from May. A monthly rise in sales in September was also revised down to 0.1 per cent from a previous estimate of a 0.3 per cent gain.
The ONS said retailers across the board reported that consumers held back on spending ahead of the new government's first tax and spending budget on 30 October.
It also said a possible contributor to the weakness in sales were the school half-term holidays for England and Wales which typically fall within the October data reporting period but did not this year.
Sales of clothing were particularly weak in October, something reflected in previously released figures for the month from the British Retail Consortium, representing the industry, which linked the fall to weather that was warmer than usual.
The ONS said during the 12 months to October, sales volumes rose by 2.4 per cent, slowing from September's 3.2 per cent rise and weaker than the median forecast in the Reuters poll for a 3.4 per cent increase.
Slow start to Golden Quarter
Jacqui Baker, head of retail at RSM UK and chair of ICAEW’s Retail Group, described the figures as a “concerning start to the Golden Quarter” - the busiest period for retailers.
“With half-term falling later this year and relatively mild weather, consumers have put off buying their winter coats and boots. This has made it difficult for retailers to shift stock,” she said. Many shoppers appear to be holding out for Black Friday deals, which Baker predicts will lift sales throughout November.
Baker noted that despite a challenging October, there is hope for a recovery in the months ahead.
“The Budget didn’t deal a huge blow to consumers in the form of tax rises, plus interest rates continue to come down, and the American election is now out of the way, which should help with confidence and create a clear runway for Christmas spending,” she said.
Thomas Pugh, an economist at RSM UK, echoed these concerns, pointing to the timing of the school half-term as a significant factor in October's sales slump. However, he expressed optimism about the longer-term outlook, predicting that retail sales would grow through 2025 as “higher consumer incomes and rising consumer confidence … feed through into higher spending volumes.”
He added: “While headline inflation jumped from 1.7 per cent in September to 2.2 per cent in October, retail prices fell at an accelerated rate. Indeed, retail inflation dropped from -1.3 per cent to -1.6 per cent, meaning lower prices will help a rise in spending feed through into bigger increases in sales volumes.”
Silvia Rindone, EY UK&I Retail Lead, highlighted consumer caution as another key factor behind the October decline.
“The decline in sales volumes can be attributed to a decrease in consumer confidence, influenced by several factors including uncertainty surrounding the Autumn Statement, rising energy bills, and the impending costs of Christmas,” she commented.
EY’s latest Holiday Shopping survey revealed that nearly half of consumers began their festive shopping before November, aiming to spread out holiday expenses.
Rindone warned that retailers face a challenging period ahead, with upcoming labour cost increases, including changes to National Insurance and a minimum wage hike set for April 2025.
“The next few months are critical… Retailers will need to ensure they drive margin this Golden Quarter so that investments can be made in their proposition,” she said.
“As our survey found, shoppers are willing to spend if the price is right and the proposition is strong. Continuing to operate as efficiently as possible while steadily improving the experience for customers will be key. Much like the last few years, the market is getting tougher, and only those able to continually evolve will thrive.”