Andrew Bailey acknowledges retailers' warning on job cuts

Retailers are right to warn of potential job cuts as a result of tax increases announced at last month’s budget, Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey has said.

Bailey appeared before the cross-party Treasury select committee on Tuesday (19), after almost 80 retailers claimed rising costs would make “job losses inevitable, and higher prices a certainty”.

“I think there is a risk here that the reduction in employment could be more. Yes, I think that’s a risk,” Bailey said, adding that depending on how companies respond, there could be a bigger reduction in employment as a result of the NICs rise than the 50,000 jobs projected by the government’s spending watchdog, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).

Bailey suggested the Bank’s monetary policy committee (MPC) would continue to reduce interest rates slowly from their current level of 4.75%, allowing time to assess the impact of the tax changes.

Rachel Reeves’s first budget increased taxes by £40bn, which Labour said would be used to fund creaking public services. The biggest revenue-raiser was a £25bn rise in employer national insurance contributions (NICs), which has prompted a backlash from business groups.

In a letter to the chancellor, retail bosses claimed this and other changes would cost the sector £7bn and lead to layoffs. Signatories included senior figures from Tesco, Greggs, H&M, B&Q and Specsavers.

The letter, which was organised by the British Retail Consortium (BRC) and signed by 80 companies, warned the industry faces £7bn in increased costs as a result of changes to employers’ National Insurance, a higher minimum wage rise and levies on packaging.

It added that job losses were now “inevitable”, as a result of the “sheer scale” of the new costs on business.

The letter continued: “For any retailer, large or small, it will not be possible to absorb such significant cost increases over such a short timescale. The effect will be to increase inflation, slow pay growth, cause shop closures and reduce jobs, especially at the entry level. This will impact high streets and customers right across the country.”

The BRC estimates that retailers will face a £2.3bn bill from April, after the implementation of the increase in employer NICs from 13.8 per cent to 15 per cent, as well as the reduction in the earnings threshold when they must start paying it, from £9,100 to £5,000.

Meanwhile, retailers are understood to have been contacted by the Treasury last week to find out whether they planned on giving their support to the letter, which criticised the Chancellor’s decision to impose extra costs on the industry. One industry source suggested the Government had been thrown into a “tizzy” by the prospect of a public letter rebuking the Chancellor.