Pre-festive deals boosted food sales in otherwise 'disappointing' October

Arrival of customary "pre-festive" deals boosted food sales though overall sales suffered in October as cash-strapped shoppers stayed at home, holding off purchases amid uncertainty over the budget and fears over rising energy bills.

According to data from the British Retail Consortium and the consultancy KPMG published today (5), sales increased by 0.6 per cent compared with October 2023, less than half the three-month average growth rate of 1.3 per cent.

Food sales increased 2.9 per cent year on year over the three months to October, against a growth of 7.9 per cent in October 2023. This is below the 12-month average growth of 4.1 per cent. For the month of Oct, food was in growth year-on-year.

Helen Dickinson OBE, Chief Executive of the British Retail Consortium, said that October’s "disappointing" sales growth was partly driven by half term falling a week later this yea.

"Uncertainty during the run-up to the Budget, coupled with rising energy bills, also spooked some consumers. Fashion sales took the biggest hit as the mild weather delayed winter purchases. Health and beauty sales remained buoyant, with beauty advent calendars flying off the shelves.

“After a painful Budget for retailers, the hope is it will be less painful for households in the immediate term and consumer appetite will pick up in time for the Black Friday sales and festive season. Retailers must now grapple with over £5bn of new costs announced by the Chancellor, including in Employer National Insurance, Business Rates and the uplift in the National Living Wage. Managing this will hold back investment and growth in the short term, while further squeezing already-low margins and risking inflation," she said.

Commenting on sales performance of food and drink sector performance, Sarah Bradbury, CEO at IGD, said,“In October, UK food and grocery sales saw a modest step up in growth compared to September, but this period does not include the last five days of the month, when an uptick of spending around Halloween might have been expected.

“However, the arrival of customary ‘pre-festive’ deals in categories such as wine helped boost sales in the second half of the month. Importantly - volume, as well as value growth, remained positive despite a downbeat mood in the wider economy reflecting nervousness around potential tax hikes in the government’s budget.

“Shopper Confidence continues to reflect very differing shopper experiences, with lower income households feeling much more negative than higher income households. Retailers will be hoping that measures announced in the budget, such as the uplift in the minimum wage, will give a much-needed confidence boost to lower income shoppers and that the nation is looking forward to the coming festive period with more optimism.”