Leading retail association Bira has warned that independent high street shops are facing a "perfect storm" of declining in-store sales and rising costs, despite modest overall growth in the retail sector.
The latest BRC-KPMG Retail Sales Monitor figures for February 2025 show UK retail sales increased by 1.1 per cent year-on-year (0.9 per cent on a like-for-like basis). However, this headline figure masks significant challenges facing independent retailers.
While food sales grew by 2.3 per cent (2.1 per cent like-for-like), non-food sales remained flat at 0.0 per cent (-0.1 per cent like-for-like). Most concerning is the continued decline in non-food in-store sales, which fell by -1.0 per cent (-1.3 per cent like-for-like) compared to the same period last year.
"There is some positivity in the overall retail figures, but we are very concerned by the continued decline of non-food sales in store,” said Andrew Goodacre, CEO of Bira, which represents over 6,000 independent retail businesses across the UK. “Independent retailers predominantly operate in the non-food sectors and are worried about sales, especially with costs set to rise next week. The 140 per cent increase in business rates for smaller retailers announced in the budget will be a painful addition to the burgeoning cost base of running a shop."
The data shows online non-food sales increased by 1.9 per cent, with online penetration rising to 36.4 per cent compared to 35.8 per cent in February 2024. This shift continues to challenge high street retailers who are simultaneously coping with increased operational costs.
Bira, which includes Retra (the trade association for independent electrical retailers), notes that computing and electronics were among the stronger performing categories online, which could benefit some specialist independent electrical retailers. However, the overall picture for store-based independents remains challenging.
Younger drinkers are driving the emergence of the premium cream liqueur category in the UK, according to new data from Irish cream challenger brand, Coole Swan.
The brand’s sales data shows 20 – 40-year-olds as the core consumer of Coole Swan, a demographic significantly contributing to the brand’s 67 per cent growth in the UK in 2024.
Coole Swan CEO, Mary Sadlier, believes this growth to be an untapped opportunity for the trade.
Data shows that Coole Swan consumers spend 84 per cent more instore than the category average and 70 per cent of its consumers come from outside the category, preserving the growth of the popular value end of the cream liqueur category.
Mary Sadlier commented, “Consumers are willing to pay more for premium alcohol, especially the younger consumer. It’s well documented that post millennials are drinking less, but when they are drinking, they’re opting for a better-quality liquid, with the finest ingredients and no additives.
"They might be buying less volume, but they’re spending more on quality, enjoying it for longer and really appreciating the liquid.
"For the trade, these new consumer habits mean better margins and repeat custom from proven higher spending consumers. It’s a real growth opportunity that doesn’t cannibalise the value end of the market, given that nearly three quarters of our consumers are discovering the brand from outside the category. ”
The global cream liqueur market is projected to register a CAGR of 10.5 per cent from 2023 to 2029. Global data shows that growth is largely driven by premium brands, which are growing faster than the rest of the category in Europe and the US.
Sadlier continued, “Irish Cream Liqueurs are having their day and Coole Swan is here to disrupt as the next generation cream liqueur. Blended with care, Coole Swan has fresher ingredients, a smoother finish and a cleaner taste and has won multiple, prestigious awards globally, to prove it.
"It’s hard to believe that a brand created in a shed in County Meath has gone on to create such disruption in the market. We don’t have big budgets behind us, simply loyal, satisfied customers who keep coming back.”
As well as maximising strategic price promotions throughout the year, Coole Swan also expects to secure brand growth through new retail and wholesale listings, working with its UK distributor. The brand is also investing in digital marketing to further tap into this younger, engaged audience.
Food sales continued to see an uptick last month against overall dip in sales as shopper confidence rose a little as retailers brace of additional costs and legislative changes in the coming months, shows industry data released today (11).
According to British Retail Consortium (BRC), total retail sales increased by 1.1 per cent year on year in February, against a growth of 1.1 per cent in February 2024. This was below the 3-month average growth of 2.4 per cent and above the 12-month average growth of 0.8 per cent.
Food sales increased by 2.3 per cent year on year in February, against a growth of 5.6 per cent in February 2024. This was level with the 3-month average growth of 2.3 per cent and below the 12-month average growth of 2.8 per cent.
Non-Food sales were flat year on year in February, against a decline of 2.7 per cent in February 2024
Commenting on the figures, Helen Dickinson OBE, Chief Executive of the British Retail Consortium, said, “Retail sales saw more modest growth in February. While sales growth across non-food categories was generally muted, it was propped up by online purchases, particularly in computing and electronics.
"Jewellery, watches and fragrance sold well thanks to Valentine’s Day, reversing declines seen last year, and furniture also returned to growth. Fashion performed poorly due to the gloomy weather throughout the month, but retailers are hopeful the early March sunshine kickstarts spending on Spring and Summer wardrobes.
“This weak performance makes many retailers uneasy, especially as they brace for £7bn of new costs from the Budget and packaging levy in 2025, as well as the potential impact of the Employment Rights Bill.
"The industry is already doing all it can to absorb existing costs, but they will be left with little choice but to increase prices or reduce investment in jobs and shops, or both.
"The focus of the Employment Rights Bill should be on unscrupulous employers but instead the industry faces ongoing uncertainty and a trajectory that risks punishing responsible businesses who provide valuable employment, particularly at entry level. It is time for government to course correct to ensure investment and growth are not undermined.”
Regarding the performance in food and drink sector, Sarah Bradbury, CEO at IGD, said, "Despite upcoming cost challenges, shopper confidence rose to 2 (from -3 in January) due to wage growth and the impending rise in the National Living Wage.
"Early February saw positive retail value sales, likely from Valentine’s promotions, but overall, February's volume sales dipped. Shopper confidence is expected to remain volatile in response to the external environment."
Retail footfall rebounded last week from the week before in high streets and retail parks whereas shopping centres continued to see a decline, shows the latest figures.
The rise in high street activity is being attributed to warmer weather, and schools reopening following the half term break across the UK which will also signal a return to the office.
According to MRI Software, footfall rose on four out of seven days last week peaking on Sunday and Wednesday in all UK retail destinations, however the drop in activity came on Friday which was far more significant in shopping centres.
High streets benefitted from the warmer weather on Saturday with a rise in footfall recorded however retail parks and shopping centres saw a drop in activity on this day compared to the week before.
All town types seemingly benefited from the milder weather conditions with footfall rising from the week before, especially in coastal towns and Greater London where double digit rises were recorded from the week before.
Market and historic towns also witnessed strong activity, alongside MRI Software’s Central London Back to Office benchmark. Apart from the West Midlands, regional footfall in all UK retail destinations remained strong particularly in the East of England and the South West.
Retail footfall rose by +1.8 per cent overall last week from the week before driven by a +4.2 per cent rebound in high street activity and by +0.1 per cent in retail parks.
Shopping centres, however, saw a -1.6 per cent decline in footfall, reflecting cautious consumer behaviour ahead of Mother’s Day and Easter, which fall two weeks later this year than in 2024. This suggest shoppers may be planning purchases more intentionally.
Week on week, Sunday and Wednesday were the strongest days with footfall in all UK retail destinations but driven predominantly by high streets experiencing strong rises.
This upward trend continued into the weekend with activity rising by +4% on Saturday whereas retail parks and shopping centres saw a much quieter day with footfall declining, a sign of milder weather conditions encouraging people to outdoor retail destinations.
Coastal towns also benefitted from the improved weather conditions as footfall rose by +11 per cent week on week, a double digit trend which was also echoed in Greater London (+10.6 per cent). The return to office was evident in Central London.
Compared to 2024 levels, high street footfall remained flat whereas shopping centres and retail parks saw a footfall decline.
With seasonal shifts in major events that typically drive retail footfall, including Mother’s Day and Easter moving to later in March and into April, these annual fluctuations are expected to level out over time.
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Decline in plant-based product sales and rise in meat and dairy sales
Meat and dairy products saw a rise in sales in January, while their meat-free counterparts and dairy-free products experienced less demand compared with 2024.
According to a report released by Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB), while the meat, fish and poultry (MFP) category saw volume growth of 1.4 per cent, meat-free products had their fourth consecutive year of decline.
This was mostly driven by vegetable-based products such as bean burgers, rather than meat imitation products (like Quorn), as vegetable-based products saw a -12.4 per cent decline.
This weaker performance is likely due to declining engagement with Veganuary, according to Google searches, and only a small proportion of the population (5.65 per cent) taking part in the challenge this year.
Of those who took part, 1.29 per cent are vegan all year round, 2.30 per cent completed Veganuary and 2.06 per cent did not. Of those who managed to maintain a vegan diet for the entire month, 39 per cent stated they are not going to continue with the diet beyond January, states AHDB.
Promotions played a big part in performance this January, and according to Kantar, meat-free product saw a 9.1 per cent decline in promotions year-on-year, which, along with high inflation, likely contributed to its performance.
While meat imitation products did see spend and volume growth in January, it was the only meat-free category to see increases in both, however, this isn’t expected to continue, as historically (2021–2024) there has been an average decline in volume of -22.5 per cent from January to February (Kantar 4 w/e 26 January 2025).
Cow’s dairy volumes increased by 6.1 per cent in January and saw volume increases in almost all product categories, while plant-based dairy sales increased by just 1 per cent, with volume declines in nearly all plant-based dairy categories, including plant-based cheese, spreads and butter.
Hannah McLoughlin, an AHDB analyst, said, “Our data highlights that consumer interest in meat and dairy-free products is not as strong as it was in previous years.
“The demand for meat and dairy remains resilient, with many consumers showing a preference for traditional products over plant-based options.
“This shift in consumption patterns, coupled with fluctuating promotional activity, suggests that the traditional meat and dairy sectors continue to hold their ground in the face of changing dietary trends.
“AHDB continues to promote the benefits of eating meat and dairy year-round, with our Milk Every Moment, Let’s Eat Balanced and Love Pork campaigns focusing on the great taste and health benefits of these products as part of a healthy balanced diet.”
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Shoppers walk through Birmingham's New Street on February 18, 2025.
Footfall in February remained somewhat stable, notes a recent report, showing a considerable rise observed after the post-Christmas lull with Valentine's Day emerging as the key contributor.
MRI Software’s latest retail footfall data for February revealed a minor dip of -0.3 per cent compared to February 2024 across all UK retail destinations, driven by a -1.5 per cent decline in high street activity.
This annual fall reflects historical trends for February but may have been compounded this year by a particularly severe flu season, ongoing travel disruptions, and the arrival of Storm Herminia; all of which created further obstacles in driving retail and office-based footfall.
Shopping centres and retail parks bucked the trend recording rises of +0.2 per cent and +1.9 per cent, respectively, and continues to reinforce the benefits of enclosed retail destinations.
Despite these challenges, February’s month-on-month footfall provided welcome relief.
Total footfall rose by +7.3 per cent from January as the retail sector moved past the traditional post-Christmas lull.
Key events including the February half-term holiday provided a boost for physical retail destinations, particularly shopping centres and high streets where footfall jumped by +9 per cent and +11.6 per cent, respectively, from the previous week.
Valentine's Day was also another key contributor as footfall rose by +22.3 per cent in all UK retail destinations on this day alone compared to the week before; this was led by a +27.1 per cent rise in high streets, a +15.4 per cent uplift in retail parks, and +18.9 per cent in shopping centres.
Year on year, retail park growth was particularly strong from 5pm-11pm with footfall rising by +20.4 per cent in comparison to the same time period on Valentine's Day last year.
Looking ahead, there is cautious optimism among retailers. MRI Software’s weekly Insights from the Inside survey revealed that 55 per cent of retailers saw stronger sales during February’s half-term break compared to last year.
However, the outlook for March is more reserved, with 58 per cent of retailers expecting lower sales than in 2024 likely due to the later timing of Easter, which shifts key spending into April.
As the sector prepares for the upcoming Spring Budget, attention is turning to how financial policies may further influence consumer confidence and retail spending. Potential changes in tax, public spending, and household support will be closely monitored for its impact on disposable income and retail demand in the months ahead.