The price of bread and other bakery products could see a spike of 20 per cent in the coming week after wheat prices hit a nine-year high, industry chiefs have warned on Sunday (21).
Price of bread wheat has gone up by 26.7 per cent in the past year due to rising demand while other costs continue to increase including fuel for transport and gas used in baking ovens.
Bread wheat is now trading on commodity markets at £255.40 a tonne, up nearly 27 per cent on a year ago and at its highest for nine years.
Record-high petrol prices are also driving up the transport cost while freight costs have also risen, making it more expensive for British bakers to import the Canadian wheat found in most of our bread.
Alice Jones, analyst with agricultural body, AHDB, said: "Global wheat prices keep climbing each week on the back of supply concerns, and UK prices are following global trends."
"As long as global prices keep rising there is scope for domestic prices to keep rising."
While some of the higher costs may be absorbed by retailers, higher price tags will be visible very soon, said the reports citing industry experts.
Now that food prices are at a ten year high globally, pasta prices have already started to rise in recent weeks with more increases likely to follow.
"Energy pricing is also on the rise, while HGV driver shortages and recruitment are resulting in increased wage rates,” a report quoted Gordon Polson, CEO of Britain's Federation of Bakers, as saying.
Allied Bakeries, which owns Kingsmill, said the industry was "exposed to inflationary pressure in relation to the cost of flour, as well as the gas we use in our ovens and fuel for our delivery fleet."
Behind a record surge in cocoa prices this year, a corner of financial markets that drives the cost of chocolate underwent a seismic shift: the hedge funds that oiled its workings headed for the exit.
Confectionery prices, from candy bars to hot chocolate, are heavily influenced by futures contracts for cocoa beans. These financial instruments, traded in London and New York, allow cocoa buyers and sellers to determine a price for the commodity, forming a benchmark for sales across the world.
In the middle of last year, hedge funds - a class of investors that use privately pooled money to make speculative bets - started pulling back from trading cocoa futures because price swings in the market were raising their cost of trading and making it harder to make profits.
They accelerated their retreat in the first half of this year as cocoa prices hit a record in April, driven by supply issues in West Africa, according to Reuters calculations based on data from the US Commodity Trading Futures Commission (CFTC), which oversees the New York market, and ICE Futures Europe, an exchange that compiles figures for trading in London.
"This market became increasingly volatile," said Razvan Remsing, director of investment solutions at Aspect Capital, a $9.3 billion London-based fund that uses coding and algorithms to find trades. "Our system's response was to trim our positions."
Aspect slashed the exposure to cocoa in its Diversified Fund from nearly 5 per cent of its net asset value in January to less than one percent after April, according to a presentation reviewed by Reuters.
REUTERS
The departure of hedge funds and other speculators caused liquidity in the market to slump, making it harder to buy and sell, stoking volatility to record highs and fueling the price spike still further.
Reuters spoke to a dozen fund executives, cocoa market brokers and traders who said the retreat has left lasting strains on the market. That has resulted in greater gaps between the price at which cocoa can be bought and sold, and has prompted some industry players to seek alternative instruments, leaving a lasting impact on the sector.
This month, the number of futures contracts held globally at the end of a given trading day - a key indicator of market health known as "open interest" - hit its lowest since at least 2014, the global figures show, a sign the futures market overall has shrunk significantly. Data prior to 2014 was not available.
On Wednesday, New York cocoa futures prices topped their April peak.
The futures market is a crucial cog in the cocoa industry, allowing producers and chocolate companies to hedge their exposure to swings in the price of beans.
Futures dictate income for the farmers and low-income nations that produce the world's cocoa - the majority of which comes from Ghana and Ivory Coast in West Africa.
Hedge funds and speculators have become bigger players in commodity markets over the past two decades as the value of their overall assets has grown. But, as purely financial investors, they have no need to remain in the market at times of stress.
The impact of hedge funds' exit illustrates how reliant trading has become on these lightly regulated funds that increasingly shape financial markets. Reuters has reported this year on how hedge funds are piling into the euro zone's $10 trillion government bond market, drawing regulatory scrutiny, and on their growing sway in European stock trading.
Contacted by Reuters, the CFTC declined to comment. A representative for Britain's regulator, the Financial Conduct Authority, said that, in line with its market supervision practice, "we have been working with trading venues and participants to monitor the orderliness of the market."
Bernhard Tröster, an economist at the Austrian Foundation for Development Research (ÖFSE) in Vienna, who last year co-authored a paper on the growing role of financial actors in commodities derivatives markets, said the withdrawal of hedge funds had helped fuel the crisis in cocoa markets.
"When markets became so volatile this year, it was clear how hedge funds and other financial actors have become so important," he said.
Supply issues hit prices
Hedge funds and other speculators' share of the market peaked at 36 per cent in May 2023, the highest in at least a decade, after which their retreat began, the global data calculated by Reuters show.
Then, at the start of this year, global cocoa prices soared after top producer Ivory Coast was hit by adverse weather and disease. Number two producer Ghana fared even worse, with smuggling, illegal gold mining on cocoa farms and sector mismanagement added to the mix.
In early February, cocoa prices surpassed a previous record high set in 1977. Executives at five hedge funds told Reuters they began to withdraw as volatility grew and the cost of trading increased.
When markets become too hot, exchanges require speculators to increase the amount of collateral they put down per futures contract, raising their costs. Lawrence Abrams, president of Absolute Return Capital Management in Chicago, said the cost of trading a single cocoa futures contract soared from $1,980 in January to $25,971 by June.
High prices and volatility, combined with falling liquidity, began to affect "our system's trading and risk management decisions," Abrams said, whose fund sold out before prices peaked in April. He declined to detail how much his fund managed, citing regulatory reasons.
Ripe cocoa pods grow on a tree at a farm in Assin Foso, Ghana, November 20, 2024REUTERS/Francis Kokoroko/File Photo
Many hedge funds promise investors they will not exceed a certain amount of risk, meaning that if a certain market becomes too volatile they have to reduce their exposure.
The difference between prices offered and sought for futures, the so-called "bid-ask spread", soared following the hedge funds' withdrawal. That has made trading harder: lower liquidity and wider spreads mean traders struggle to execute large trades without moving overall prices.
"You need speculators," said Vladimir Zientek, a trading associate at brokerage firm StoneX, referring to hedge funds, which are not among his clients. "Without speculators in the market, you lose a lot of liquidity, which allows for these very wide and erratic market swings."
By mid-April, New York contracts CCc1 hit a then-record above $12,000, up three-fold from January, prompting hedge funds to sell down their positions.
"Trends don't last forever," said Remsing at Aspect Capital. "Stay too long in size and you stand to give back all your gains."
Hedge funds' share of the cocoa futures market dropped to 7 per cent in late May, its lowest in at least a decade, the global data show.
One European broker, who requested anonymity to discuss clients' trades, said that panic in the market increased in March and April as liquidity drained away.
Volatility in cocoa futures hit an all-time high in May, up five-fold from a year earlier, according to data from the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG).
Daily average price swings that month neared $800, some 15 times the levels of a year earlier, according to a Reuters analysis of figures from market data provider PortaraCQG.
Riskier markets
For major trading houses that buy and sell cocoa beans - a group that includes Singapore's Olam, Switzerland’s Barry Callebaut, and US-based Cargill - the liquidity drain and associated price surge exacerbated the more than-$1 billion dollar hit they took on their futures positions.
The losses came earlier this year after Ghana, following a disastrous harvest in the October 2023 to September 2024 season, delayed delivery on nearly half the beans the nation had pledged to sell, upsetting cocoa traders' futures market strategies.
These traders typically use futures to lock in prices achieved for cocoa beans, or to hedge against the risk of falling prices.
But that strategy unraveled as Ghana delayed its deliveries. Traders were forced to liquidate, at steep losses, short positions for the month of expected delivery, and take new short positions.
REUTERS
The market turmoil has prompted some trading houses and producers to seek alternatives to futures.
Australian investment bank Macquarie, a big player in commodity markets, told Reuters it sold over-the-counter products to trading houses, processors and chocolate makers when cocoa volatility hit record levels this year, and demand remains high.
One major agri-commodities trader is now using such bespoke contracts, according to a source who requested anonymity citing sensitive commercial relationships. They declined to comment on the magnitude of the business.
Such products typically protect buyers against narrower price swings than is possible with futures, limiting their use, a European broker said, declining to be identified to freely discuss clients' activity.
'Cocoa tourists'
Some hedge funds have returned to the market. Along with other speculators that trade using investors' cash, they accounted for 22 per cent of futures trading this month, according to the global data. But buying and selling in the cocoa market's altered landscape has become harder.
Zientek, the trading associate at StoneX, said bid-ask spreads can now top 20 "ticks" - $200 per contract - compared to about 2-4 ticks before cocoa's rally to record highs.
"This makes larger orders tougher to execute without seeing an immediate distortion in the market," he said.
Daniel Mackenzie, managing director of Cocoa Hub, a UK-based company that sources and sells cocoa beans to artisan chocolate makers, said higher and more volatile prices were forcing small and medium-sized makers to decide between passing costs to clients or reducing product sizes.
One chocolate maker he worked with has been shuttered and another sold, he said, without providing further details.
As hedge funds exited, short-term investors such as day-traders – which buy and sell assets within a single trading day – have stayed in the market, the European broker and the broker at the agri-commodities bank said.
The cohort that includes day-traders this month accounted for 5 per cent of the market, about the same as the start of the year, the global data show.
Day-traders cannot fulfill the liquidity-provision role traditionally played by hedge funds, the two brokers said.
"I like to call them 'cocoa tourists' - they move in, hold a position for a day or two, then move out," the European broker said.
The UK retail sector is bracing for a challenging but opportunity-filled 2025, according to Jacqui Baker, head of retail at RSM UK. While the industry grapples with rising costs and heightened crime, advancements in artificial intelligence and a revival of the high street offer potential pathways to growth, she said.
The latest Budget delivered a tough blow to the retail sector, exacerbating existing financial pressures. Retailers, who already shoulder a significant portion of business rates and rely heavily on a large workforce, face increased costs from rising employers’ National Insurance Contributions.
“Higher costs will also eat into available funds for future pay rises, benefits or pension contributions – hitting retailers’ cashflow in the short term and employees’ remuneration in the longer term,” Baker said.
“Retailers must get creative to manage their margins and attract footfall and spend, plus think outside the box to incentivise employees if they’re to hold onto talented staff.”
On the brighter side, falling inflation and lower interest rates could ease operational costs and restore consumer confidence, potentially driving retail spending upward.
High street resurgence
Consumers’ shopping habits are evolving, with a hybrid approach blending online and in-store purchases. According to RSM UK’s Consumer Outlook, 46 per cent of consumers prefer in-store shopping for weekly purchases, compared to 29 per cent for online, but the preference shifts to 47 per cent for online shopping for monthly buys and to 29 per cent for in-store. The most important in-store aspect for consumers was ease of finding products (59%), versus convenience (37%) for online.
“Tactile shopping experiences remain an integral part of the purchase journey for shoppers, so retailers need to prioritise convenience and the opportunity for discovery to bring consumers back to the high street,” Baker noted.
The government’s initiative to auction empty shops is expected to make brick-and-mortar stores more accessible to smaller, independent retailers, further boosting high street revival, she added.
A security guard stands in the doorway of a store in the Oxford Street retail area on December 13, 2024 in London, EnglandPhoto by Leon Neal/Getty Images
Meanwhile, retail crime, exacerbated by cost-of-living pressures, remains a significant concern, with shoplifting incidents reaching record highs. From organised social media-driven thefts to fraudulent delivery claims, the methods are becoming increasingly sophisticated.
“Crime has a knock-on effect on both margins and staff morale, so while the government is cracking down on retail crime, retailers also have a part to play by investing in data to prevent and detect theft,” Baker said.
“Data is extremely powerful in minimising losses and improving the overall operational efficiency of the business.”
AI as a game-changer
Artificial intelligence is emerging as a transformative force for the retail sector. From personalised product recommendations and inventory optimisation to immersive augmented reality experiences, AI is reshaping the shopping landscape.
“AI will undoubtedly become even more sophisticated over time, creating immersive and interactive experiences that bridge the gap between online and in-store. Emerging trends include hyper-personalisation throughout the entire shopping journey, autonomous stores and checkouts, and enhanced augmented reality experiences to “try” products before buying,” she said, adding that AI will be a “transformative investment” that determines the long-term viability of retail businesses.
The Amazon Fresh store in Ealing, LondonPhoto: Amazon
As financial pressures ease, sustainability is climbing up the consumer agenda. RSM’s Consumer Outlook found 46 per cent would pay more for products that are sustainably sourced, up from 28 per cent last year; while 44 per cent would pay more for products with environmentally friendly packaging, compared to 36 per cent last year.
“However, ESG concerns vary depending on age and income, holding greater importance among high earners and millennials. With financial pressures expected to continue easing next year, we anticipate a renewal of sustainability and environmentally conscious spending habits,” Baker noted.
“Retailers ought to tap into this by understanding the preferences of different demographics and most importantly, their target market.”
Southend-on-Sea City Council officials have secured food condemnation orders from Chelmsford Magistrates Court, resulting in the seizure and destruction of 1,100 unauthorised soft drinks.
The condemned drinks, including Mountain Dew, 7-UP, Mirinda, and G Fuel energy drinks, were found during routine inspections of food businesses across Southend by the council’s environmental health officers.
Council said these products contained either banned additives like Calcium Disodium EDTA or unauthorised novel ingredients such as Potassium Beta-hydroxybutyrate.
Calcium Disodium EDTA has been linked to potential reproductive and developmental effects and may contribute to colon cancer, according to some studies. Potassium Beta-hydroxybutyrate has not undergone safety assessments, making its inclusion in food products unlawful.
Independent analysis certified that the drinks failed to meet UK food safety standards. Magistrates ordered their destruction and ruled that the council's costs, expected to total close to £2,000, be recovered from the businesses involved.
“These products, clearly marketed towards children, contain banned or unauthorised ingredients. Southend-on-Sea City Council will always take action to protect the public, using enforcement powers to ensure unsafe products are removed from sale,” Cllr Kevin Robinson, cabinet member for regeneration, major projects, and regulatory services, said.
“As Christmas approaches, we hope this sends a strong message to businesses importing or selling such products: they risk significant costs and possible prosecution.”
The council urged residents to check labels when purchasing imported sweets and drinks, ensuring they include English-language details and a UK importer's address.
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A customer browses clothes inside Charity Super.Mkt at Brent Cross Shopping centre in north London on, December 17, 2024
Bursting with customers one afternoon the week before Christmas, a second-hand charity shop in London's Marylebone High Street looked even busier than the upscale retailers surrounding it.
One man grabbed two puzzle sets and a giant plush toy as a present for friends, another picked out a notebook for his wife.
“Since the end of September, we've seen a huge uplift in people coming to our shops and shopping pre-loved,” said Ollie Mead, who oversees the shop displays - currently glittering with Christmas decorations - for Oxfam charity stores around London.
At the chain of second-hand stores run by the British charity, shoppers can find used, or "pre-loved", toys, books, bric-a-brac and clothes for a fraction of the price of new items.
Popular for personal shopping, charity stores and online second-hand retailers are seeing an unlikely surge in interest for Christmas gifts, a time of year often criticised for promoting consumerism and generating waste.
A report last month by second-hand retail platform Vinted and consultants RetailEconomics found UK customers were set to spend £2 billion on second-hand Christmas gifts this year, around 10 per cent of the £20 billion Christmas gift market.
A woman browses some of the Christmas gift ideas in a store on December 13, 2024 in London, England. Photo by Leon Neal/Getty Images
In an Oxfam survey last year, 33 per cent were going to buy second-hand gifts for Christmas, up from 25 percent in 2021.
“This shift is evident on Vinted,” Adam Jay, Vinted's marketplace CEO, told AFP.
“We've observed an increase in UK members searching for 'gift' between October and December compared to the same period last year.”
According to Mead, who has gifted second-hand items for the last three Christmas seasons, sustainability concerns and cost-of-living pressures are “huge factors”.
Skimming the racks at the central London store, doctor Ed Burdett found a keychain and notebook for his wife.
“We're saving up at the moment, and she likes to give things another life. So it'll be the perfect thing for her,” Burdett, 50, told AFP.
“It's nice to spend less, and to know that it goes to a good place rather than to a high street shop.”
'Quirky, weird
Wayne Hemingway, designer and co-founder of Charity Super.Mkt, a brand which aims to put charity shops in empty shopping centres and high street spaces, has himself given second-hand Christmas gifts for “many, many years”.
“When I first started doing it, it was classed as quirky and weird,” he said, adding it was now going more “mainstream”.
Similarly, when he first started selling second-hand clothes over 40 years ago, “at Christmas your sales always nosedive(d) because everybody wanted new”.
Now, however, “we are seeing an increase at Christmas sales just like a new shop would”, Hemingway told AFP.
“Last weekend sales were crazy, the shop was mobbed,” he said, adding all his stores had seen a 20-percent higher than expected rise in sales in the weeks before Christmas.
“Things are changing for the better... It's gone from second-hand not being what you do at Christmas, to part of what you do.”
Young people are driving the trend by making more conscious fashion choices, and with a commitment to a “circular economy” and to “the idea of giving back (in) a society that is being more generous and fair,” he said.
At the store till, 56-year-old Jennifer Odibo was unconvinced.
Buying herself a striking orange jacket, she said she “loves vintage”.
But for most people, she confessed she would not get a used gift. “Christmas is special, it needs to be something they would cherish, something new,” said Odibo.
“For Christmas, I'll go and buy something nice, either at Selfridges or Fenwick,” she added, listing two iconic British department stores.
Hemingway conceded some shoppers “feel that people expect something new” at Christmas.
“We're on a journey. The world is on a journey, but it's got a long way to go,” he added.
According to Tetyana Solovey, a sociology researcher at the University of Manchester, “for some people, it could be a bit weird to celebrate it (Christmas) with reusing.”
“But it could be a shift in consciousness if we might be able to celebrate the new year by giving a second life to something,” Solovey told AFP.
“That could be a very sustainable approach to Christmas, which I think is quite wonderful.”
Lancashire Mind’s 11th Mental Elf fun run was its biggest and best yet – a sell-out event with more than 400 people running and walking in aid of the mental charity, plus dozens more volunteering to make the day a huge success.
The winter sun shone on Worden Park in Leyland as families gathered for either a 5K course, a 2K run, or a Challenge Yours’Elf distance which saw many people running 10K with the usual running gear replaced with jazzy elf leggings, tinsel and Christmas hats.
And now the pennies have been counted, Lancashire Mind has announced that the event raised a fantastic £17,000.
This amount of money allows Lancashire Mind to deliver, for example, its 10-week Bounce Forward resilience programme in eight schools, reaching more than 240 children with skills and strategies that they can carry with them throughout their lives, making them more likely to ‘bounce forward’ through tough times.
The event was headline sponsored by SPAR for a third year through its association with James Hall & Co. Ltd, SPAR UK’s primary retailer, wholesaler, and distributor for the North of England.
“On behalf of the entire team at Lancashire Mind, we want to extend a heartfelt thank you to the 400+ incredible participants who joined us for Mental Elf 2024!” said Organiser Nicola Tomkins, Community and Events Fundraiser at Lancashire Mind.
“Your support, energy and commitment to raising awareness for mental health makes all the difference. Together, we've taken another important step towards breaking the stigma around mental health and promoting wellbeing for all in our community. We couldn't have done it without you!”
Worden Hall became the hub of the event where people could enjoy music from the Worldwise Samba Drummers and BBC stars Jasmine and Gabriella T, plus lots of family friendly activities and a chance to meet Father Christmas. Pets also got in on the act in the best dressed dog competition.
Lancashire Mind CEO David Dunwell said: “It was heart-warming day, full of community spirit and festive cheer, but with a serious aim to raise funds for mental health.
“We are so grateful to everyone who bought a ticket and fundraised or donated to help us smash our target. The money raised goes directly to supporting Lancashire Mind’s life-changing mental health services. These funds help provide wellbeing coaching, support groups, and educational programmes to individuals and families in need of mental health support in our community.”
The concept of Mental Elf was created by Lancashire Mind and news of the event has spread right across the country in recent years, with around 40 other local Mind charities hosting a similar event in 2024.
Lancashire schools were also encouraged to host their own Mental Elf-themed event this year, whether that was a run, bake sale or dress up day, and raised more than £1,000 in total.
Philippa Harrington, Marketing Manager at James Hall & Co. Ltd, said: “There was a lovely festive feel in the air at Mental Elf and we were delighted to see even more individuals, families, and canine companions taking part in its new home of Worden Park.
“We are also very pleased to see the uptake that Mental Elf has had in schools, and congratulations go to the Lancashire Mind team for taking it to new participants and for raising a fantastic amount of money for an important cause.”