Nearly half (46 per cent) of Brits prioritised spending on small, affordable, mood-boosting luxuries such as pastries and cosmetics in 2024 though most shoppers were bothered by "double-dip" shrinkflation majorly seen in snacks and chocolates, states a recent industry report, charting out top 10 trends that shaped consumer behaviour last year.
New data from Barclays reveals that essential spending grew just 0.9 per cent in 2024, down from 3.9 per cent last year, as spending on fuel fell while supermarket growth slowed.
The Barclays Consumer Spend report, which combines hundreds of millions of customer transactions with consumer research to provide an in-depth view of UK spending, reveals the top 10 trends that shaped consumer behaviour this year.
'Spendanova' for experience-loving Brits
Brits prioritised spending on memorable experiences in 2024, with the entertainment sector enjoying a 5.8 per cent uplift. Those who spent on entertainment in 2024 each spent £343 on average.
Spending on live shows and concerts increased 6.7 per cent thanks to ticket sales and attendance at major musical events such as The Eras Tour, Sabrina Carpenter, Coldplay World Tour, and Oasis’s reunion.
Treatonomics and the ‘lipstick effect’
Cutbacks continued for countless consumers, but many adopted a “treat yourself” attitude in 2024. Nearly half (46 per cent) of Brits say they prioritise spending on small, affordable, mood-boosting luxuries such as pastries and cosmetics, even while tightening budgets.
Among this group, baked goods were a particularly popular ‘pick-me-up’, chosen by 43 per cent at an average monthly spend of £22 each, with crookies and pistachio desserts among the year’s top trending treats.
Demand for little luxuries also boosted pharmacy, health and beauty retailers, up 7.1 per cent, further demonstrating the impact of the "lipstick effect", where shoppers prioritise cosmetics purchases, even when limited spending. ‘Beauty spenders’ splashed out £291 each on average in 2024.
Double-dip shrinkflation
Shrinkflation emerged as one of supermarket shoppers’ top scourges in 2023, while this year saw ‘double-dip’ shrinkflation bite. Two thirds (64 per cent) of cost-conscious Brits noticed ‘double-dip’ shrinkflation in 2024, where products go through two or more rounds of size reductions without a corresponding drop in price.
According to this group, the five most cited products hit by ‘double-dip shrinkflation’ were chocolate (54 per cent), crisps (39 per cent), packs of biscuits (34 per cent), snack bars (32 per cent) and sweets (32 per cent).
Brits find creative ways to save
Consumer confidence in household finances showed tentative signs of recovery this year, reaching an average of 69 per cent, up from 64 per cent on average in 2023. Brits took control over their finances and embraced new ways to save; almost a quarter (23 per cent) say they have participated in or would consider participating in a “no-spend” challenge, which involves refraining from making non-essential purchases, such as takeaways, coffees and clothes.
Almost half (45 per cent) said they were cooking more at home to save money, while setting clearly defined spending goals (such as saving for a holiday or building an emergency fund) and planning expenses in advance also proved to be popular.
Television thrives
Demand for digital content soared in 2024, emerging as the year’s strongest performing category, up 13.2 per cent – nearly twice the 7.3 per cent increase seen in 2023.
“Streamflation”, the rising price of streaming subscriptions, also took effect; 59 % of Brits expressed concern about their digital subscriptions becoming more costly. Despite this, only 27% of those cutting down their discretionary spending said that they would reduce their spending on the category.
Brits continue to pull up a bar stool
Brits continued to flock to bars, pubs and clubs in 2024, as the sector recorded a modest 3.6 per cent year-on-year increase, fuelled by a summer of sport and a desire for festive socialising, with Brits that ventured to the pub spending £344 on average each throughout 2024. Growth at pubs outperformed restaurants in 2024, which were up just 1.7% in comparison, suggesting Brits opted for more casual, relaxed socialising in the last year.
Grocery Slowdown
Growth in supermarket spending slowed to 1.3 per cent, down from 6.5 per cent in 2023.
In a year of determined budgeting, cost-conscious shoppers continued to look out for loyalty scheme discounts and supermarket deals. Encouragingly, Barclays Consumer Confidence data found over a third (36 per cent) of shoppers have noticed food prices rising at a slower rate in recent months.
Easing pressure on household finances
There was welcome relief for households as concerns about inflation and the cost of energy bills both began to ease at the midway point of the year.
Brits take to the skies
Travel sector spending stayed strong in 2024, up 6.9 per cent, but lagged behind 2023, when growth reached 15.2 per cent. Holidaymakers spent £1,117 on average each on travel, and travel agents (7.9 per cent) and airlines (7.5 per cent) both saw significant uplifts in the period.
Homeowners choose sustainability over style
Spending on home improvements & DIY dropped -7.3 per cent year-on-year, while furniture stores also recorded a -2.2 per cent fall, indicating that Brits have been making fewer home décor purchases, instead favouring experience-led categories.
Whilst energy bills remained below 2023 levels, the energy price cap rise and colder weather kept home heating on the agenda. A quarter of homeowners reported making energy efficiency improvements to their home in 2024. Of those making changes, over half (52 per cent) are seeking to reduce long-term energy use and a fifth hope to increase the value of their property.
Karen Johnson, head of retail at Barclays, said, “2024 demonstrated Brits’ strong appetite for experiences very clearly, spending selectively elsewhere in order to find room in their budgets for the moments and treats that the most matter to them.
“From The Eras Tour to the much-anticipated Oasis reunion; blockbusters at the cinema to quality content on the couch; pastries to lipsticks and planning trips abroad, Brits collectively said ‘yes’ to joy in their spending, even against a backdrop of rising bills and living costs.
“This conscious consumerism will continue to shape spending in the new year, with entertainment likely to maintain its momentum, as Brits continue to embrace their ‘new essentials’.”
The majority of UK households are heading into 2025 feeling financially secure, but more people think the health of the economy is worsening than improving, a recent report has shown.According to KPMG UK’s Consumer Pulse survey, nearly three times more people feel secure (fifty-seven percent) than insecure (twenty-one percent) about their financial situation.
While the picture for financial security is largely positive, consumer opinion regarding the health of the UK economy was more mixed – with four in ten consumers saying the economy is worsening, compared to a quarter saying it’s improving.
Pessimism about the UK economy is highest among two-thirds of those aged sixty-five and over, with those aged 25-34 the most optimistic. Regionally, London is the most upbeat, with the North East the most downbeat about the economy.
A wage rise would be the most likely reason to increase an individual’s spending beyond 2024’s levels.
A third of consumers say that retailer promotional events could convince them to part with more money during the course of the year, with a quarter saying improved loyalty scheme prices would.
Reflecting upon the findings, Linda Ellett, head of consumer, retail and leisure for KPMG UK, said, “Whether due to confidence in their ability to spend or their ability to manage household bills, it is positive news that the majority of UK households are heading into 2025 feeling financially secure.
“Despite four in ten people saying the UK economy is worsening, a higher amount than those thinking it is improving, planned spending on big ticket items over the next twelve months looks healthy. Whether that spend comes to fruition will depend on a range of factors, including continued reduction in interest rates and whether perception about economic worsening becomes a reality in the form of increased job insecurity.”
Comparing their spending in the last three months (Sept, Oct, Nov) to the previous (June, July, Aug), groceries was the number one category for those spending more money while eating out was the activity consumers most commonly spent less money on.
A quarter of consumers reported buying promotional or discounted items more over the last three months, while half of consumers said they bought big ticket items – most commonly on a holiday, followed by household appliances.
Price was the top purchasing driver for both everyday purchases and one-off higher cost items.
Ellett added, “Promotional periods and the value consumers place on loyalty pricing throughout the year have all demonstrated that shoppers remain savvy when it comes to searching out better deals.
"This will continue in 2025 and our research shows that up to a third of consumers may increase their overall spending levels if retailer offers are sufficiently appealing to them.
"Retailers will be looking to capitalise on this by using customer data and AI to ensure offer targeting is increasingly personalised in the coming twelve months.”
The UK's independent retail sector endured a grim 2024, with 11,341 store closures and 58,616 job losses, marking a significant increase compared to 2023, when 7,793 stores closed and 34,390 jobs were lost, according to the Centre for Retail Research.
This 45 per cent rise in store closures and a staggering 70 per cent jump in job losses highlight the growing challenges faced by smaller retailers, who have been disproportionately affected by economic pressures, rising costs, and intensifying competition. The sector's struggles contributed heavily to the overall retail closures and redundancies in 2024, which saw 13,479 stores shuttered and 169,395 jobs lost across the UK.
In contrast, the multiples sector, while also impacted, experienced a less dramatic year-on-year change. In 2024, multiples closed 2,138 stores and reported 74,784 job losses, compared to 2,701 closures and 45,428 job losses in 2023.
The figures paint a bleak picture for independent retail, which is often hailed as a cornerstone of local communities. Retailing jobs form a sizeable portion of the country’s overall job market, with 2.87 million roles representing about 8.5 per cent of all UK jobs, according to the most recent figures from the British Retail Consortium.
“The comparatively low [job loss] figures for 2023 now look like an anomaly, a pause for breath by many retailers after lockdowns if you like,” Professor Joshua Bamfield, director of the Centre for Retail Research, said.
“The problems of changed customer shopping habits, inflation, rising energy costs, rents and business rates have continued and forced many retailers to cut back even more strongly in 2024.”
Trade bodies have warned that small high street shops are likely to face significant challenges in 2025 due to tax hikes announced in the Autumn Budget, coupled with minimum wage changes. Businesses will see an increase in national insurance contributions and a reduction in business rate discounts next year.
The Centre for Retail Research forecasts 17,349 store closures in 2025, resulting in nearly 202,000 job losses.
“By increasing both the costs of running stores and the costs on each consumer’s household it is highly likely that we will see retail job losses eclipse the height of the pandemic in 2020,” Bamfield warned.
Retailers across Britain have warned of potential price increases and store closures following a bleak Christmas trading period, as consumers grapple with relentless cost-of-living pressures.
Fresh data from Rendle Intelligence and Insights paints a challenging picture for UK retail in the lead-up to Christmas. Footfall in the final full week of trading was down by a significant 11.4 per cent compared to the same period last year.
“Super Saturday,” traditionally the year's busiest shopping day, offered little relief.
Footfall on the day was only 4.1 per cent higher than the previous Saturday and a mere 0.9 per cent higher than the equivalent day in 2023.
These lukewarm figures follow a Black Friday that saw a modest 5.5 per cent uplift in footfall year-on-year, as shoppers appeared to prioritise discounted deals over last-minute festive spending.
Diane Wehrle, CEO of Rendle, highlighted the stark reality, “The disappointing results, coinciding with news that the UK economy showed no growth between July and September, underscore the severe cost pressures faced by households amid prolonged high inflation.
“It appears this Christmas has been disastrous for retail, and a bad omen for 2025.”
Official data also showed that retail sales in the UK fell short of expectations in November despite shops starting to cut prices early as part of Black Friday discounting.
Sales volumes rose by a weaker-than-expected 0.2 per cent month-on-month in November, having fallen by 0.7 per cent in October, new data from the Office for National Statistics shows.
Early retail sales data for December showed little sign of improvement.
Meanwhile, retailers body British Retail Consortium (BRC) has also warned of “spending squeeze” in January 2025.
BRC-Opinium figures released on Monday (23) suggest that public confidence in the state of the economy nosedived in December, falling eight points to minus 27.
The public’s spending intentions, both in retail and beyond, dropped six points, with expectations of spending in nearly every retail category falling.
Helen Dickinson, the BRC’s chief executive, stated, "The weak spending intentions could pave the way for a challenging year for retailers, who face being buffeted by low consumer demand and £7 billion of new costs from the budget set to hit the industry in 2025.
“With sales growth unable to keep pace, retailers will have no choice but to raise prices or cut costs, closing stores and freezing recruitment.”
Grocers must focus on their price positioning to remain competitive as food and grocery spending in UK convenience stores is projected to outpace the hypermarkets, supermarkets, and discounters channel.
According to GlobalData, food and grocery spending in convenience stores is projected to reach £43.2 billion by 2028, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.0 per cent between 2024 and 2028.
Between 2023 and 2024, the traditional big four grocers, Tesco, Sainsbury’s, ASDA, and Morrisons, collectively added 800 new convenience stores to their portfolios, with ASDA and Morrisons leading the growth with acquisitions. This rapid expansion underscores increasing competition in the convenience market.
After successfully focusing on price in large format stores to appeal to consumers during the cost-of-living crisis, grocers must shift their focus on agile pricing to convenience locations.
Sainsbury’s and Tesco are notable examples within convenience, with Sainsbury's recently introducing Aldi price matching in its Local stores and Tesco announcing price reductions on over 200 products in its Express stores.
Aliyah Siddika, Retail Analyst at GlobalData, comments, “This replication of price focus from larger format stores to grocers’ expanding their convenience offer will encourage consumers to impulse buy due to increased affordability.
"The shift in UK consumer behaviour towards frequent top-up shopping has also created substantial growth potential in the convenience market.”
Before the pandemic, 81.6 per cent of UK consumers stated they would visit a grocer on the way home from work, and 78.4 per cent reported the same now.
Budget limitations have primarily driven this change, followed by the rise of hybrid working. Pre-pandemic, consumers working in the office full-time had less time to cook dinner after work.
However, with the shift to hybrid work models, consumers now go into the office a few times a week and are more likely to have the time to prepare meals ahead of the days they are in the office to save money.
Convenience retailers should promote low prices on their fakeaway options to entice consumers to visit on their way home from work for an affordable yet indulgent meal.
Siddika concludes,“When offering deeper price cuts in convenience formats, grocers must target price promotions towards items that consumers are more inclined to purchase during the workweek. Such as food-to-go ranges, ready meals, quick dinners, and treats to capture spending from commuters."
Sales of fresh meat and poultry have soared as shoppers cut back on takeaways and eating out – but they are increasingly shunning so-called ‘meat-free’ options.
NIQ data released today (14) shows that over the last 12 months, British consumers did more scratch cooking, with sales of fresh meat (+£481.3m), fresh fruit (+£463.5m), fresh vegetables (+£374m), fresh salad (+£285.3m) and fresh poultry (+£247.6m) all among the top 10 fastest growing categories.
In a further sign that more meals are being freshly prepared, dried herbs and spices enjoyed the biggest volume percentage gains out of all the 127 categories in this year’s report.
Sales of beef (+£242.1m) and chicken (+£212m) were among the most popular and fastest growing products in British supermarket baskets in 2024, but lamb and duck also enjoyed strong growth.
But the meat-free category (-£37.1m) continues to decline, dipping below £500m in value. Market leader Quorn (-£16.5m) was the biggest casualty, although some brands are still in growth.
Inflation
The NIQ data also shows that UK shoppers have cut back on some dairy products, with milk (-£223.3m) and butter, spreads & margarine (-£63.7m) among the fastest falling categories, as the massive inflation in these categories over the past two years has taken its toll.
With inflation now largely under control in grocery retail, the reintroduction of branded promotions has helped stem the slump in overall branded volumes. But inflation is still having a material impact on the market.
A less obvious casualty is chocolate confectionery (+£532.6m), which actually recorded the biggest increase in value sales across the Top Products Survey. But volumes fell and most of the value gains reflect price hikes linked to soaring cocoa commodity prices, as cocoa beans futures reached an all-time high of $12,000/tonne earlier this year.
It was a similar story for Cadbury Dairy Milk (+£72.4m), where the leading chocolate brand’s strong value sales again masked lower volumes.
The cost of living crisis is likely also to blame for the decline in sales in many alcoholic drinks categories, although the government’s duty hikes have also played a part. Spirits (-£52.6m), sparkling wine (-£19.9m) and champagne (-£12.1m) all fared badly. And alcohol brands accounted for 50% of the top 10 fastest falling products, including lager brands Foster’s (-£34m) and Carling (-£22.2m) as well as the UK’s leading gin brand Gordon’s (-£21.4m).
Sales of wine (+£242.4m) performed better, although Hardys (-£41m), and Blossom Hill (-£22.7m) were some of the biggest losers overall in terms of value sales.
It was a different story in energy drinks.
Monster (+£103.6m) and Red Bull (+£84.7m) were the strongest performing brands in terms of value sales. But after enjoying stratospheric growth, following its social-media fuelled launch, sales of Prime (-£63.1m) came crashing down to earth.
The biggest overall casualty, however, was disposable vaping brand ElfBar (-£284m), amid signs that the vaping category may have passed its peak ahead of duty hikes and increased legislative restrictions. On the other hand the overall fastest growing product was SKE Crystal Bar (+£240.8m) which shows how prone to fast-moving fads the vaping category is.
The fortunes of the wrapped bread market were also highly variable. Hovis (-£37.7m) experienced the biggest downturn in sales of any food brand; while Warburtons (+£57.6m) was the biggest food brand to be in value and volume growth.
Fastest-growing grocery categories of 2024
Category
Actual growth (£ millions) in value sales
1
Chocolate
£532.6m
2
Fresh Meat
£481.3m
3
Fresh Fruit
£463.5m
4
Fresh Veg
£374m
5
Fresh Salad
£285.3m
6
Crisps & Snacks
£247.6m
7
Fresh Poultry
£247.6m
8
Eggs
£246m
9
Light Wine
£242.4m
10
Sweet Biscuits
£238.9m
Fastest-falling grocery categories of 2024
Category
Actual decline (£ millions) in value sales
1
Milk
-£223.3m
2
Toilet Tissue
-£106.2m
3
Butter, Spreads & Marge
-£63.7m
4
Spirits
-£52.6m
5
Meat-Free
-£37.1m
6
Frozen Fish
-£21.3m
7
Sparkling Wine
-£19.9m
8
Kitchen Roll
-£12.9m
9
Champagne
-£12.1m
10
Dry Pasta
-£6.8m
Rachel White, Managing Director UK & Ireland at NIQ, said, “Shopping habits have changed once again. What we are seeing in this year’s survey is a return to scratch cooking and the preparation of fresh meals.
"Perhaps this is a nod to trends in healthier living – with consumers taking the time to prepare meals together, sourcing fresh and healthy products and consuming less alcohol – but it’s also a product of the cost of living crisis, as shoppers cut back on takeaways and eating out to save money.”