Mints and gum are the perfect category for small shops, as demonstrated by the category's close proximity to the till. It is a vibrant category with great margins and a never-ending supply of NPDs, happily straddling several categories.
The category took a hit during the pandemic as the mint and gum occasion/fresh breath necessity was curtailed due to people working from home/not sitting in the car in traffic etc, and not socialising. However, now the country has returned to normal, the mints and gum opportunity is set to come roaring back (with fresh breath confidence!).
“Mints and gums are seeing positive signs of growth as more people continue to return to work following the Covid- 19 lockdowns,” comments Jason Sutherland, UK & Ireland sales director at Ferrero.
“The Tic Tac brand also showed great resilience and overall, the sugar confectionery segment is on an upward trajectory, driven by mints and gum which is the second growing segment, rising with double digits.”
Photo: iStock
Mark Roberts, marketing and trade marketing director at Perfetti Van Melle (PVM), agrees, adding that the marketing campaigns have been crucial in luring the consumers back.
“The pandemic certainly hit mints and gums hard as we stopped commuting and socialising, so we invested in marketing that would build brand awareness and encourage shoppers back into a ‘refreshment routine’,” he explains.
“There have been fantastic performances across Perfetti Van Melle portfolio this year as a result. Routines have most definitely changed for good, but the need to be ready, alert, and take time for yourself are as important as ever.”
According to IRI data, the gum category was worth £266 million in 2022, growing 18 per cent from the previous year. Roberts says their Mentos brand is outperforming the category with 34 per cent growth, driven by phenomenal annual sales and the launch of Mentos Pure Fresh Gum in paper bottles.
“We’ve seen fantastic performances across our portfolio leading Mentos Gum to be the number three brand within the category. Being sugar free, both Smint and Mentos Gum are HFSS compliant, which is important for retailers after the legislation introduction in October 2022,” he adds.
PVM has recently announced an agreement to acquire Mondelēz International’s developed-market gum business in the US, Canada and Europe, further bolstering its portfolio that includes iconic global brands such as Mentos, Chupa Chups and Alpenliebe.
“Perfetti Van Melle will be an excellent home for the management team and employees of Mondelēz’s gum business in North America and Europe,” said Egidio Perfetti, chairman of PVM Group.
Daniele Perfetti, vice chairman of PVM Group, added: “We have long admired the product and brand portfolio of the gum business and look forward to combining them with the Perfetti Van Melle brand family.”
The sale includes manufacturing facilities in Rockford, US and Skarbimierz, Poland and the gum brands Trident, Dentyne, Stimorol, Hollywood, V6, Chiclets, Bubbaloo and Bubblicious in the US, Canada and Europe, as well as the European candy brands Cachou Lajaunie, Negro, and La Vosgienne.
Mondelēz International will continue to operate its gum business outside the three markets, led by Stride in China, as well as all of its other candy brands and products. The transaction, which is subject to customary closing conditions, is expected to close in final quarter of 2023.
Novelty and innovation
Consumers are attracted to mints and gum products that offer new and interesting flavours, textures, and formats. Roberts credits the focus on fruit flavours for the growth of Mentos Pure Fresh Gum, which also drives new teenage and young adult shoppers into the category.
“Fruit gum is now worth £33m, up 26 per cent versus last year, in fact, Mentos is driving two thirds of the growth of the fruit gum market,” he says.
“Cherry and Tropical flavours along with Bubblefresh continue to accelerate growth, and we see lots of opportunity to grow this further among the 30 million Brits that chew gum. We are continuing to tap into the ‘Gen Z’ audience with activity led by TikTok social campaigns, VoD, OOH, PR all year round.”
Ferrero’s Sutherland also stresses on the huge opportunity provided by the flavours.
“While the category is traditionally aimed towards providing refreshing on the go moments, the introduction and popularity of fruit flavours in the last few years has enabled us to expand our portfolio, offering products for different occasions with fruity flavours that work as a little treat throughout the day,” he says.
Sutherland adds that their Tic Tac mints are showing rising penetration, with half of these buyers aged at 55 and 65+, translating into 1.3 million additional shoppers who are spending eight per cent more.
“Tic Tac has gained more than £1m in sales through winning shoppers with our fruit flavours which is predominantly gaining traction with a younger audience under 35, and we’re seeing many switch from more traditional hard candy or boiled sweets towards our vibrant, fruity flavours. Our expanding Tic Tac Fruits range has also supported our results, bringing in five million incremental value sales by attracting a younger demographic,” he notes.
While sugar category is now worth £1.5bn, up 10 per cent in the past year [Nilelsen], Tic Tac has shown steady growth, up 31 per cent compared to two years’ ago and increasing by 13 per cent this year, meaning this iconic brand is now worth £24.9m.
PVM’s Roberts says that their Smint is also well on its way to pre-pandemic levels, with sales soaring ahead of the category.
According to the IRI data to 21 January 2023, Smint holds a dominant 35 per cent share of the sugar-free mint market, growing at three times the rate of the category. With a value of £9.5m and a growth rate up 44 per cent in the last four weeks alone, there’s never been a better time for retailers to invest in and stock-up on Smint, he added.
The Smint range features a variety of popular flavours including Peppermint, Spearmint, Sweet Mint and Strawberry, which can be purchased in tin, bottle, and dispenser formats. The portfolio was also refreshed last year to include the new Smint Defensive, which launched in response to the growing demand for immune enhancing products.
Available in a widely recyclable 18-piece Flip Top Box, Smint Defensive’s sugar free peppermint lozenges contain Vitamin C, B6 and Zinc, which help to support the immune system and reduce tiredness and fatigue.
Meanwhile, Mentos has entered new market with tangy Sour Gum, launched in December.
The sour gum category is growing 45 per cent MAT, showing consumers’ appetite for this flavour profile. Mentos Sour Gum is HFSS-compliant and available in two popular flavours: Sour Apple and Strawberry, with 15pcs in a pocketable bottle, making it the ideal on-the-go size.
The launch followed the recent successes of the Mentos Pure Fresh Gum range after a summer of ATL activity that represented an investment of £1.5m in the category.
“Research shows that tangy sour flavours hold more appeal for younger demographics than traditional mint flavours,” said Kim McMahon, Mentos Gum brand manager. “Delicious tangy Mentos Sour Gum will introduce younger consumers to the Mentos Gum brand and improve category consideration for the rest of the range.
“We’ve given a lot of thought to the taste experience during development – the crunchy outer shell gives way to the satisfying texture of the liquid fruit centre, combining to give this delicious sugar free gum its unique sour taste. As the UK’s leading manufacturer of sugar-free confectionery, this HFSS-compliant Mentos Sour Gum is the natural next step for us in the gum space.”
The launch is supported by a social media campaign, with in-store activity planned for this year. Mentos Sour Gum is HFSS-compliant, meaning there are no geographical limitations on where it can be merchandised and making it a must-stock.
Wellness mission
Being sugar free both Smint and Mentos are HFSS compliant, Roberts notes, adding that offering more choice in range, brand and flavour should be a key focus for retailers to cater to the new shoppers and drive growth in the category.
“With significant marketing spend to further ensure shoppers can try these outstanding products, some exciting innovation coming into the brand this year and merchandising opportunities increased by forthcoming HFSS legislations, we can only see this progressing,” he says.
Ferrero’s Sutherland also emphasises the importance of stocking a selection from the major brands.
“Tic Tac is an iconic brand when it comes to the mints category, and a familiar sight for UK shoppers in the confectionery aisles. The original Tic Tac Fresh Mint is still our most popular product. With it largely being an impulse purchase, consumers will expect a choice of mints and gums, with an array of varying price points and pack sizes depending on their needs,” he notes.
“By ensuring they have classic flavours, as well more inventive offerings such as sour fruit varieties which include Fruit Adventure, Lime & Orange, and our new Berry Bliss it will allow retailers to capitalise on impulse purchases.”
Discussing the impact of the HFSS legislation Sutherland says Ferrero has been working in collaboration with retailers, continuously listening to the challenges they have in relation to HFSS sales.
“We are and will remain in constant dialogue with them to help mitigate some of their concerns by providing solutions to help with new layouts and range solutions. Part of this was the development of our HFSS-compliant Fresh range. Consumers will still be seeking out sugar confectionery, so it’s about ensuring it remains visible in store and that you clearly signpost to where shoppers can head if they want to purchase sweet treats,” he says.
With confectionery moving away from the front of the store for some independent retailers, he recommends to trial products in different areas of the store, especially alongside other on-the-go products, such as lunchtime bites or near the magazines.
Promotional changes
Roberts points out the impact of the HFSS rules on promotions, with the HFSS legislation originally set to remove multibuys.
“Many retailers began implementing the changes and, in some cases, have carried on,” he notes, adding that this impacts the promotional share and base prices, the latter being already in flux in recent years with the trend of moving away from singles across candy and gum, as bigger format bottles and bags became more appealing to shoppers, shifting the average unit price in the market.
“But what we know is that confectionery remains a fixture in high demand, and with the relatively low entry point to the category the treat role that the category plays will remain relevant and important to shoppers as more pressures take effect,” he says.
Sutherland bats for PMPs which make up 28 per cent of sugar confectionery value in convenience (IRI, 2022), saying they should definitely be considered as part of a wide and varied portfolio.
“We know that available spend for food and drink will fall for many in the months ahead due to overarching cost pressures and inflation, which is where PMPs can offer value,” he says.
“Consumers will still seeklittle treats though, whether chocolate or sweets, so these will remain on the shopping list in 2023. As such, it’s important for retailers to continue to offer quality products within their confectionery range, particularly when it comes to single formats.”
Photo: iStock
He asks retailers to take proactive measures to ensure their sugar confectionery offering stands out and attracts shopper interest through stocking recognisable and trusted brands such as Tic Tac. “We’re well-known for our quality products, so stocking a strong core range helps provide retailers with relevance year-round,” he suggests.
Ferrero has been investing in a fully through-the-line marketing campaign for the brand over the last couple of years, keeping Tic Tac front of mind with a new TV advert and radio advert. In July last year, they introduced the sugar-free Tic Tac Fresh range across grocery and convenience, combining the need for a cool fresh experience with fruit flavours.
“Tic Tac Fresh has brought incremental value to the Tic Tac brand and supported wider category growth, it has provided over £100,000 in value sales and £56,000 in incremental value,” Sutherland says. “As a HFSS-compliant range, it will help retailers attract new consumers to the sugar confectionery fixture.”
Looking to the future, the mints and gum market in the UK is expected to continue to experience growth, driven by increasing demand for healthier, more natural, and functional products. While the market has faced some challenges in recent years due to the Covid-19 pandemic, it has also played a role in driving demand now, as consumers have become more concerned about maintaining good oral hygiene.
Consumers are increasingly looking for mints and gum products that offer functional benefits such as freshening breath, promoting oral health, and reducing stress. Retailers would do well by offering products that incorporate natural ingredients and low sugar or sugar-free formulations.
Given the impact of HFSS regulations in the larger stores, strategic placement of mints and gums is all the more important, and offering multipack bundles would be helpful in nudging customers to buy more than one pack at a time. This can also be an effective way to offer a variety of flavors in one purchase, which can increase customer satisfaction.
Cross-promoting mints and gums with other products in the store, such as soft drinks, snacks or sandwiches, offering free samples of new or popular mints and gums to encourage customers to try them and using eye-catching signage to draw attention to the mints and gums section of the store, while communicating the benefits of the products and any promotional offers that are currently available, are some of the methods retailers can adopt to encourage impulse purchases and increase sales.
The UK retail sector is bracing for a challenging but opportunity-filled 2025, according to Jacqui Baker, head of retail at RSM UK. While the industry grapples with rising costs and heightened crime, advancements in artificial intelligence and a revival of the high street offer potential pathways to growth, she said.
The latest Budget delivered a tough blow to the retail sector, exacerbating existing financial pressures. Retailers, who already shoulder a significant portion of business rates and rely heavily on a large workforce, face increased costs from rising employers’ National Insurance Contributions.
“Higher costs will also eat into available funds for future pay rises, benefits or pension contributions – hitting retailers’ cashflow in the short term and employees’ remuneration in the longer term,” Baker said.
“Retailers must get creative to manage their margins and attract footfall and spend, plus think outside the box to incentivise employees if they’re to hold onto talented staff.”
On the brighter side, falling inflation and lower interest rates could ease operational costs and restore consumer confidence, potentially driving retail spending upward.
High street resurgence
Consumers’ shopping habits are evolving, with a hybrid approach blending online and in-store purchases. According to RSM UK’s Consumer Outlook, 46 per cent of consumers prefer in-store shopping for weekly purchases, compared to 29 per cent for online, but the preference shifts to 47 per cent for online shopping for monthly buys and to 29 per cent for in-store. The most important in-store aspect for consumers was ease of finding products (59%), versus convenience (37%) for online.
“Tactile shopping experiences remain an integral part of the purchase journey for shoppers, so retailers need to prioritise convenience and the opportunity for discovery to bring consumers back to the high street,” Baker noted.
The government’s initiative to auction empty shops is expected to make brick-and-mortar stores more accessible to smaller, independent retailers, further boosting high street revival, she added.
A security guard stands in the doorway of a store in the Oxford Street retail area on December 13, 2024 in London, EnglandPhoto by Leon Neal/Getty Images
Meanwhile, retail crime, exacerbated by cost-of-living pressures, remains a significant concern, with shoplifting incidents reaching record highs. From organised social media-driven thefts to fraudulent delivery claims, the methods are becoming increasingly sophisticated.
“Crime has a knock-on effect on both margins and staff morale, so while the government is cracking down on retail crime, retailers also have a part to play by investing in data to prevent and detect theft,” Baker said.
“Data is extremely powerful in minimising losses and improving the overall operational efficiency of the business.”
AI as a game-changer
Artificial intelligence is emerging as a transformative force for the retail sector. From personalised product recommendations and inventory optimisation to immersive augmented reality experiences, AI is reshaping the shopping landscape.
“AI will undoubtedly become even more sophisticated over time, creating immersive and interactive experiences that bridge the gap between online and in-store. Emerging trends include hyper-personalisation throughout the entire shopping journey, autonomous stores and checkouts, and enhanced augmented reality experiences to “try” products before buying,” she said, adding that AI will be a “transformative investment” that determines the long-term viability of retail businesses.
The Amazon Fresh store in Ealing, LondonPhoto: Amazon
As financial pressures ease, sustainability is climbing up the consumer agenda. RSM’s Consumer Outlook found 46 per cent would pay more for products that are sustainably sourced, up from 28 per cent last year; while 44 per cent would pay more for products with environmentally friendly packaging, compared to 36 per cent last year.
“However, ESG concerns vary depending on age and income, holding greater importance among high earners and millennials. With financial pressures expected to continue easing next year, we anticipate a renewal of sustainability and environmentally conscious spending habits,” Baker noted.
“Retailers ought to tap into this by understanding the preferences of different demographics and most importantly, their target market.”
Southend-on-Sea City Council officials have secured food condemnation orders from Chelmsford Magistrates Court, resulting in the seizure and destruction of 1,100 unauthorised soft drinks.
The condemned drinks, including Mountain Dew, 7-UP, Mirinda, and G Fuel energy drinks, were found during routine inspections of food businesses across Southend by the council’s environmental health officers.
Council said these products contained either banned additives like Calcium Disodium EDTA or unauthorised novel ingredients such as Potassium Beta-hydroxybutyrate.
Calcium Disodium EDTA has been linked to potential reproductive and developmental effects and may contribute to colon cancer, according to some studies. Potassium Beta-hydroxybutyrate has not undergone safety assessments, making its inclusion in food products unlawful.
Independent analysis certified that the drinks failed to meet UK food safety standards. Magistrates ordered their destruction and ruled that the council's costs, expected to total close to £2,000, be recovered from the businesses involved.
“These products, clearly marketed towards children, contain banned or unauthorised ingredients. Southend-on-Sea City Council will always take action to protect the public, using enforcement powers to ensure unsafe products are removed from sale,” Cllr Kevin Robinson, cabinet member for regeneration, major projects, and regulatory services, said.
“As Christmas approaches, we hope this sends a strong message to businesses importing or selling such products: they risk significant costs and possible prosecution.”
The council urged residents to check labels when purchasing imported sweets and drinks, ensuring they include English-language details and a UK importer's address.
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A customer browses clothes inside Charity Super.Mkt at Brent Cross Shopping centre in north London on, December 17, 2024
Bursting with customers one afternoon the week before Christmas, a second-hand charity shop in London's Marylebone High Street looked even busier than the upscale retailers surrounding it.
One man grabbed two puzzle sets and a giant plush toy as a present for friends, another picked out a notebook for his wife.
“Since the end of September, we've seen a huge uplift in people coming to our shops and shopping pre-loved,” said Ollie Mead, who oversees the shop displays - currently glittering with Christmas decorations - for Oxfam charity stores around London.
At the chain of second-hand stores run by the British charity, shoppers can find used, or "pre-loved", toys, books, bric-a-brac and clothes for a fraction of the price of new items.
Popular for personal shopping, charity stores and online second-hand retailers are seeing an unlikely surge in interest for Christmas gifts, a time of year often criticised for promoting consumerism and generating waste.
A report last month by second-hand retail platform Vinted and consultants RetailEconomics found UK customers were set to spend £2 billion on second-hand Christmas gifts this year, around 10 per cent of the £20 billion Christmas gift market.
A woman browses some of the Christmas gift ideas in a store on December 13, 2024 in London, England. Photo by Leon Neal/Getty Images
In an Oxfam survey last year, 33 per cent were going to buy second-hand gifts for Christmas, up from 25 percent in 2021.
“This shift is evident on Vinted,” Adam Jay, Vinted's marketplace CEO, told AFP.
“We've observed an increase in UK members searching for 'gift' between October and December compared to the same period last year.”
According to Mead, who has gifted second-hand items for the last three Christmas seasons, sustainability concerns and cost-of-living pressures are “huge factors”.
Skimming the racks at the central London store, doctor Ed Burdett found a keychain and notebook for his wife.
“We're saving up at the moment, and she likes to give things another life. So it'll be the perfect thing for her,” Burdett, 50, told AFP.
“It's nice to spend less, and to know that it goes to a good place rather than to a high street shop.”
'Quirky, weird
Wayne Hemingway, designer and co-founder of Charity Super.Mkt, a brand which aims to put charity shops in empty shopping centres and high street spaces, has himself given second-hand Christmas gifts for “many, many years”.
“When I first started doing it, it was classed as quirky and weird,” he said, adding it was now going more “mainstream”.
Similarly, when he first started selling second-hand clothes over 40 years ago, “at Christmas your sales always nosedive(d) because everybody wanted new”.
Now, however, “we are seeing an increase at Christmas sales just like a new shop would”, Hemingway told AFP.
“Last weekend sales were crazy, the shop was mobbed,” he said, adding all his stores had seen a 20-percent higher than expected rise in sales in the weeks before Christmas.
“Things are changing for the better... It's gone from second-hand not being what you do at Christmas, to part of what you do.”
Young people are driving the trend by making more conscious fashion choices, and with a commitment to a “circular economy” and to “the idea of giving back (in) a society that is being more generous and fair,” he said.
At the store till, 56-year-old Jennifer Odibo was unconvinced.
Buying herself a striking orange jacket, she said she “loves vintage”.
But for most people, she confessed she would not get a used gift. “Christmas is special, it needs to be something they would cherish, something new,” said Odibo.
“For Christmas, I'll go and buy something nice, either at Selfridges or Fenwick,” she added, listing two iconic British department stores.
Hemingway conceded some shoppers “feel that people expect something new” at Christmas.
“We're on a journey. The world is on a journey, but it's got a long way to go,” he added.
According to Tetyana Solovey, a sociology researcher at the University of Manchester, “for some people, it could be a bit weird to celebrate it (Christmas) with reusing.”
“But it could be a shift in consciousness if we might be able to celebrate the new year by giving a second life to something,” Solovey told AFP.
“That could be a very sustainable approach to Christmas, which I think is quite wonderful.”
Lancashire Mind’s 11th Mental Elf fun run was its biggest and best yet – a sell-out event with more than 400 people running and walking in aid of the mental charity, plus dozens more volunteering to make the day a huge success.
The winter sun shone on Worden Park in Leyland as families gathered for either a 5K course, a 2K run, or a Challenge Yours’Elf distance which saw many people running 10K with the usual running gear replaced with jazzy elf leggings, tinsel and Christmas hats.
And now the pennies have been counted, Lancashire Mind has announced that the event raised a fantastic £17,000.
This amount of money allows Lancashire Mind to deliver, for example, its 10-week Bounce Forward resilience programme in eight schools, reaching more than 240 children with skills and strategies that they can carry with them throughout their lives, making them more likely to ‘bounce forward’ through tough times.
The event was headline sponsored by SPAR for a third year through its association with James Hall & Co. Ltd, SPAR UK’s primary retailer, wholesaler, and distributor for the North of England.
“On behalf of the entire team at Lancashire Mind, we want to extend a heartfelt thank you to the 400+ incredible participants who joined us for Mental Elf 2024!” said Organiser Nicola Tomkins, Community and Events Fundraiser at Lancashire Mind.
“Your support, energy and commitment to raising awareness for mental health makes all the difference. Together, we've taken another important step towards breaking the stigma around mental health and promoting wellbeing for all in our community. We couldn't have done it without you!”
Worden Hall became the hub of the event where people could enjoy music from the Worldwise Samba Drummers and BBC stars Jasmine and Gabriella T, plus lots of family friendly activities and a chance to meet Father Christmas. Pets also got in on the act in the best dressed dog competition.
Lancashire Mind CEO David Dunwell said: “It was heart-warming day, full of community spirit and festive cheer, but with a serious aim to raise funds for mental health.
“We are so grateful to everyone who bought a ticket and fundraised or donated to help us smash our target. The money raised goes directly to supporting Lancashire Mind’s life-changing mental health services. These funds help provide wellbeing coaching, support groups, and educational programmes to individuals and families in need of mental health support in our community.”
The concept of Mental Elf was created by Lancashire Mind and news of the event has spread right across the country in recent years, with around 40 other local Mind charities hosting a similar event in 2024.
Lancashire schools were also encouraged to host their own Mental Elf-themed event this year, whether that was a run, bake sale or dress up day, and raised more than £1,000 in total.
Philippa Harrington, Marketing Manager at James Hall & Co. Ltd, said: “There was a lovely festive feel in the air at Mental Elf and we were delighted to see even more individuals, families, and canine companions taking part in its new home of Worden Park.
“We are also very pleased to see the uptake that Mental Elf has had in schools, and congratulations go to the Lancashire Mind team for taking it to new participants and for raising a fantastic amount of money for an important cause.”
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A woman walks past a window display promoting an ongoing sale, on December 13, 2024 in London, England.
UK retail sales rose less than expected in the runup to Christmas, according to official data Friday that deals a fresh blow to government hopes of growing the economy.
Separate figures revealed a temporary reprieve for prime minister Keir Starmer, however, as public borrowing fell sharply in November.
The updates follow news this week of higher inflation in Britain - an outcome that caused the Bank of England on Thursday to leave interest rates unchanged.
Retail sales by volume grew 0.2 per cent in November after a drop of 0.7 per cent in October, the Office for National Statistics said Friday.
That was less than analysts' consensus for a 0.5-percent gain.
"It is critical delayed spending materialises this Christmas to mitigate the poor start to retail's all-important festive season," noted Nicholas Found, senior consultant at Retail Economics.
"However, cautiousness lingers, slowing momentum in the economy. Households continue to adjust to higher prices (and) elevated interest rates."
He added that consumers were focused on buying "carefully timed promotions and essentials, while deferring bigger purchases".
The ONS reported that supermarkets benefited from higher food sales.
"Clothing stores sales dipped sharply once again, as retailers reported tough trading conditions," said Hannah Finselbach, senior statistician at the ONS.
Retail sales rose 0.2% in November 2024, following a fall of 0.7% in October 2024.
Growth in supermarkets and other non-food stores was partly offset by a fall in clothing retailers.
The Labour government's net borrowing meanwhile dropped to £11.2 billion last month, the lowest November figure in three years on higher tax receipts and lower debt-interest, the ONS added.
The figure had been £18.2 billion in October.
"Borrowing remains subject to upside risks... due to sticky interest rates, driven by markets repricing for fewer cuts in 2025," forecast Elliott Jordan-Doak, senior UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
Jacqui Baker, head of retail at RSM UK and chair of ICAEW’s Retail Group, commented that the later than usual Black Friday weekend meant November’s retail sales figures saw only a slight uptick as cost-conscious consumers held off to bag a bargain.
“Despite many retailers launching Black Friday offers early, November trade got off to a slow start which dragged on for most of the month. This was driven by clothing which fell to its lowest level since January 2022. The only saving grace was half-term and Halloween spending helped to slightly offset disappointing sales throughout November,” Baker said.
“As consumer confidence continues to build and shoppers return to the high street, this should translate into more retail spending next year. However, there are big challenges coming down the track for the sector, so retailers will be banking on a consumer-led recovery to come to fruition so they can combat a surge in costs.”
Thomas Pugh, economist at RSM UK, added: “The tick up in retail sales volumes in November suggests that the stagnation which has gripped the UK economy since the summer continued into the final months of the year.
“While the recent strong pay growth numbers may make the Bank of England uncomfortable, it means that real incomes are growing at just under 3 per cent, which suggests consumer spending should gradually rise next year. However, consumers remain extremely cautious. The very sharp drop in clothing sales in particular could suggest that consumers are cutting back on non-essential purchases.
“We still expect a rise in consumer spending next year, due to strong wage growth and a gradual decline in the saving rate, to help drive an acceleration in GDP growth. But the risks are clearly building that cautious consumers choose to save rather than spend increases in income, raising the risk of weaker growth continuing through the first half of next year.”