Scotland’s hospitality trade bodies (NTIA, SBPA, SHG, SLTA, UKH) have today released joint survey results highlighting the impossible financial situation that extension of vaccine certification would put the sector in.
A survey of more than 150 business owners and operators reveal the extent of the impact any extension would have on the hospitality sector, which is vital to local economies and the country’s tourism offer.
At the moment, 83.6 per cent of businesses say that turnover is down by over 10 per cent on pre-pandemic levels.
If vaccine passports were extended to wider hospitality:
• 76.2 per cent of businesses would not survive with the winter without further Government support.
• 95.4 per cent would have to cut staff hours (if trade reduced as expected).
The survey also found that for those businesses already impacted by the policy:
• 95.2 per cent say trade has been negatively impacted.
• 87.2 per cent have seen trade reduced by over 20 per cent since the introduction of the scheme.
• Less than 1 per cent say business has been unaffected.
“From this survey it is clear to see that Scotland’s hospitality sector is in a precarious situation, making the recovery period all the more important," said the trade bodies in a joint statement. "Four out of Five (83.6 per cent) businesses are significantly below pre-pandemic levels and with inflation, debt levels and other costs rising, the sector is facing a very difficult winter ahead.
“The survey also shows that covid certification has a hugely negative impact on businesses already caught by the policy and any extension will have a devastating impact on the wider hospitality sector. Three quarters (76.2 per cent) say they would not survive without further economic support from Government, should the policy be extended.
“It’s a similarly worrying picture for staff with over 95 per cent of businesses saying that if trade reduced in line with expectations, they would have to reduce staff hours by the same or greater percentage as the loss of turnover. Given that turnover has reduced by 20% to 40% for businesses impacted by the scheme, this would be a devastating blow for the sector’s 100,000 workers just in the run-up to Christmas. The Scottish Government must take this into consideration when making the decision on any extension of the covid certification and provide the economic support to keep thousands of businesses afloat.”
Two-thirds of retail leaders respondents say they will raise prices in response to increased NI costs while food inflation could hit 4.2 per cent by the end of 2025, a leading retailers' body has said citing a recent survey.
British Retail Consortium (BRC) today (15) released the findings of a survey of CFOs (Chief Financial Officers) at 52 leading retailers, revealing significant concern about trading conditions over the next 12 months.
Sentiment languished at a concerning -57 with 70 per cent of respondents “pessimistic” or “very pessimistic” about trading conditions over the coming 12 months, while just 13 per cent said they were “optimistic” or very “optimistic” (17 per cent were neither optimistic nor pessimistic).
The biggest concerns, all appearing in over 60 per cent of CFO’s “top 3 concerns for their business” were falling demand for goods and services, inflation for goods and services, and the increasing tax and regulatory burden.
When asked how they would be responding to the increases in employers’ National Insurance Contributions(NICs) (from April 2025), two-thirds stated they would raise prices (67 per cent), while around half said they would be reducing ‘number of hours/overtime’ (56 per cent), ‘head office headcount’ (52 per cent), and ‘stores headcount’ (46 per cent). Almost one third said the increased costs would lead to further automation (31 per cent).
The impact of the Budget on wider business investment was also clear, with 46 per cent of CFOs saying they would ‘reduce capital expenditure’ and 25 per cent saying they would ‘delay new store openings.’ 44 per cent of respondents expected reduced profits, which will further limit the capacity for investment.
This survey comes only a few weeks after 81 retail CEOs wrote to the Chancellor with their concerns about the economic consequences of the Budget. The letter noted that the retail industry’s costs could rise by over £7 billion in 2025 as a result of changes to employers’ NICs (£2.33 bn), National Living Wage increases (£2.73bn) and the reformed packaging levy (£2 billion).
The Budget is not the only challenge retailers are facing, with weak consumer confidence and low consumer demand also an issue. As part of the survey, CFOs offered their forecasts for the year ahead. These suggest that shop price inflation, currently at 0.5 per cent, will rise to an average of 2.2 per cent in the second half of 2025. This would be most pronounced for food, where inflation is expected to hit an average of 4.2 per cent in the second half of the year.
The forecast for sales was more muted. While sales growth is expected to improve on the 2024 level of just 0.7 per cent , at just 1.2 per cent this would still be below inflation. This means the industry could be facing a year of falling sales volumes at the same time as huge new costs resulting from the Budget.
Helen Dickinson, Chief Executive at the BRC, said, “With the Budget adding over £7bn to their bills in 2025, retailers are now facing into the difficult decisions about future investment, employment and pricing.
"As the largest private sector employer, employing many part-time and seasonal workers, the changes to the NI threshold have a disproportionate effect on both retailers and their supply chains, who together employ 5.7m people across the country.
“Retailers have worked hard to shield their customers from higher costs, but with slow market growth and margins already stretched thin, it is inevitable that consumers will bear some of the burden.
"The majority of retailers have little choice but to raise prices in response to these increased costs, and food inflation is expected to rise steadily over the year. Local communities may find themselves with sparser high streets and fewer retail jobs available. Government can still take steps to shore up retail investment and confidence.
"Business rates remain the biggest roadblock to new shops and jobs, with retailers paying over a fifth of the total rates bill. The Government must confirm the planned reforms will make a meaningful difference to retailers’ bills and that no shop will end up paying more.”
Jack Daniel’s owner Brown-Forman Corporation has announced a series of measures including the restructuring the executive leadership team and an approximately 12 per cent reduction in its global workforce.
The company will also close its Louisville, US-based barrel-making operation, Brown-Forman Cooperage.
“In 2025, Brown-Forman celebrates 155 years of delivering Nothing Better in the Market. We have achieved this impressive milestone in part because of our relentless focus on evolving our strategy, our portfolio, and our organisation to grow and thrive,” said Lawson Whiting, president & chief executive officer.
“Today’s announcement will ensure we have the structure and teams in place to continue on this path, while also making investments that we believe will facilitate growth for generations to come.”
Brown-Forman has restructured its executive leadership team, consolidating and streamlining its commercial structure to leverage greater synergies and effectiveness in its markets.
Under the changes, Jeremy Shepherd has been named chief marketing officer. Shepherd previously led the company’s USA & Canada commercial division.
Michael Masick has been named president, Americas. Masick will continue commercial leadership for Mexico, South and Central America, and the Caribbean. In his expanded role, he will add USA & Canada to his remit.
Yiannis Pafilis has been named president, Europe, Africa, Asia Pacific. Pafilis currently leads teams across Europe. In this expanded role, he will add Africa, the Asia Pacific region, and global travel retail.
Chris Graven has joined the executive leadership team as chief strategy officer. Graven has held roles in Brown-Forman’s HR, finance, marketing, and commercial organisations in her 20 years with the company.
Brown-Forman said it has made the “difficult decision” to reduce its global workforce by approximately 12 per cent of its 5,400 employees worldwide. The company added that it is “deeply committed” to supporting departing employees with comprehensive transition agreements.
The closure of Brown-Forman Cooperage, set to take effect by 25 April, is expected to impact approximately 210 hourly and salaried employees, part of the overall 12 per cent workforce reduction. The company added that it will source barrels from an external supplier in future.
Collectively, these actions are projected to deliver approximately $70 to $80 million (£65m) in annualised cost savings, a portion of which is expected to be reinvested to accelerate growth. In addition, the company will receive more than $30 million in proceeds in connection with the sale of the cooperage assets. The company expects to incur approximately $60 to $70 million in aggregate charges for severance and related costs associated with the workforce reduction and cooperage closing.
“I want to express my sincere gratitude to our employees, particularly those impacted by these changes, for their dedication and contributions to Brown-Forman,” said Whiting. “We are committed to supporting them through this transition and are confident that these strategic initiatives will ensure the company endures for generations to come.”
Asda has announced a revamp of its leadership team as the beleaguered retailer refocusses on its mission to “satisfy the daily and weekly shopping needs of ordinary working people and their families who demand value”.
The retailer said Liz Evans will take up the position of chief commercial officer, non-food and retail, leading its large store operations on a permanent basis, alongside her continued leadership of the George clothing brand.
Asda has also created a new position on its executive team – chief supply chain officer – to oversee all its food and general merchandise operations. The position is yet to be filled.
To bolster the food team under Kris Comerford, chief commercial officer – food, Ade McKeon rejoins Asda as vice president – ambient, with beer wines and spirits, core grocery, impulse grocery, non-edible and healthcare teams reporting to him.
McKeon previously spent four years with Asda in commercial and brand leadership roles, before joining Accolade Wines as UK and Ireland general manager in 2017. He left Accolade in 2020.
Gemma Lightbody will also be rejoining Asda from Marks and Spencer as business unit director for impulse grocery reporting to McKeon.
Matt Shields will join from Aldi in due course as business unit director for core grocery and current Asda colleague Matt Wood will take on the role of SD commercial operations reporting directly to Comerford with immediate effect.
Commenting on the revamp, Allan Leighton, Asda's executive chairman, said: “Asda's mission is to deliver the value ordinary working people, and their families demand from us. To do this, we need to be and are rediscovering our 'Asda-ness'. I'm delighted to be announcing these leadership changes as we start this journey.”
Asda continues to face significant challenges, with sales declining by 5.8 per cent in the 12 weeks to December 29, 2024 - the steepest fall among the major multiples. This marked nearly a year of consistent sales decline for the supermarket, which has struggled to maintain momentum since early 2024.
As UK and European retailers gear up for 2025, the grocery sector is poised for transformation, driven by renewed focus on fundamental retail practices, new revenue opportunities, and the growing demand for health and sustainability initiatives., highlights a new report.
A new report from IGD outlines six key trends that are set to shape the future of the grocery sector across the UK and Europe.
1. Optimising Retail Fundamentals for Success
While new technologies capture attention, UK and European retailers are reinforcing core retail fundamentals like stock availability, pricing, and promotions. Innovations like shelf-edge cameras and AI-driven stock management are improving these essential areas, ensuring a seamless shopping experience.
2. Exploring New Revenue Streams
As operating costs rise, UK retailers are diversifying their revenue sources by leveraging e-commerce technology, data monetisation, and B2B services. Tesco’s launch of Transcend, enabling other grocers to use its fulfilment tools, exemplifies the growing interest in non-traditional retail income streams.
3. Evolving Store Formats for Greater Flexibility
Retailers are adopting adaptable store designs that cater to evolving consumer needs and seasonal trends. The rise of modular store formats that feature event spaces, like FairPrice Finest in Singapore, is gaining traction in Europe, offering dynamic, customer-focused shopping experiences.
4. Seamless Connected Commerce
UK and European retailers are enhancing the integration of physical and digital retail, focusing on omnichannel experiences, loyalty programmes, and smart checkout solutions. AI-powered tools, like Target’s Store Companion, are simplifying store operations while enhancing customer engagement.
5. Health and Wellness Products Lead the Charge
Driven by growing health-conscious consumer demand, retailers in the UK and Europe are introducing more functional foods and health-focused products. The rise of initiatives like Cycle.me demonstrates a shift towards combining wellness with convenience, offering consumers greater choice in healthy, sustainable products.
6. Accelerating Sustainability Commitments
Retailers are intensifying their sustainability efforts, with a focus on reducing food waste, plastic packaging, and energy usage. Germany’s EDEKA Dorfmann sustainability store sets a new benchmark for eco-conscious retail, inspiring UK and European retailers to meet ambitious sustainability goals through innovative practices.
Stewart Samuel, Director of Retail Futures at IGD, commented, “As we move towards 2025, retailers must build on the foundation of global trends while ensuring they stay agile to rapidly evolving consumer demands.
"Focusing on the basics – stock availability, pricing, and promotions – remains critical to success. But at the same time, leveraging new revenue streams, embracing technological innovation, and championing health and sustainability are no longer optional; they are essential to staying competitive.
“Retailers who can successfully integrate these areas will not only future-proof their businesses but also build stronger relationships with increasingly conscious and demanding consumers.”
E-commerce has become a central channel for wholesalers, with a significant portion of foodservice and retail operators now shopping exclusively online, shows a recent report.
According to Lumina Intelligence’s new UK Wholesale Online Report 2024, wholesalers should prioritise eB2B strategies that deliver seamless digital experiences and ensure product visibility.
Economic pressures continue to challenge spending growth in the sector. However, targeted offers, loyalty programmes, and operational efficiencies are being used to drive more frequent purchasing and boost customer retention.
The report showcases how wholesalers such as Hancocks and Parfetts have modernised their platforms to enhance user experiences, while initiatives like Mason Foodservice’s adoption of advanced logistics software have reduced costs and improved customer satisfaction.
Lumina Intelligence further emphasises the importance of digital engagement, noting that online order frequency is increasing.
Suppliers can take advantage of this trend by implementing clear and targeted promotions on digital platforms, including personalised ads and push notifications, to capture operator attention.
Branded searches dominate the retail segment, while foodservice operators face higher search failure rates, underscoring the need for suppliers to provide comprehensive product data and align their marketing with trending search terms, such as sustainability-focused keywords.
Retailers are also more likely than foodservice operators to make impulsive purchases, presenting opportunities for suppliers to maximise conversions through compelling promotional offers, digital banners, and strategic new product placements.
The report identifies several key opportunities for the future, including the expansion of digital loyalty initiatives, such as Sugro UK’s e-loyalty scheme collaboration with b2bStore, which rewards digital purchasing behaviours to drive customer traffic and sales.
Mobile commerce continues to see strong growth, making app optimisation and mobile-specific strategies critical for wholesalers and suppliers alike.
Additionally, there is increasing demand for sustainable products, including compostable packaging, presenting suppliers with opportunities to lead in the eco-conscious market.