These delicious staples can save you money on cooking and energise your body, so make the most of rice, pasta and noodles as they enjoy a surge in popularity as consumers watch their budgets
As consumers continue to see their finances stretched during the cost-of-living crisis, the relative affordability of the pasta, rice and noodles categories is expected to support the sales of these foods in the short term.
Market researcher Mintel forecasts that value sales of pasta, rice and noodles will increase to £1.82 billion in 2028, as it identifies two major opportunities to attract shopper attention: demonstrating added nutritional value and energy-saving potential when cooking.
Pasta, rice and noodles can provide nutritious and well-balanced ingredients and meal solutions that can helpwin favour of the customers, especially in pasta, where high-protein claims are an established, if niche, part of the UK market, typically based on the use of pulses as key ingredients. According to the Mintel’s 2023 market report for the category, 56 per cent of consumers agree that they are interested in pasta/rice/noodles that contain added healthy ingredients.
Photo: iStock
With the high costs of fuel prompting consumers to seek ways to reduce their energy consumption, pasta, rice and noodle brands can boost their relevance by responding to this interest, while it also speaks to the longer-term food sustainability trend. The Mintel report found that two thirds of pasta/rice/noodle buyers (66 per cent) are open to cooking dried variants using energy-saving methods.
“Value growth in the pasta, rice and noodles market has been largely inflationary in 2022, with volumes broadly stagnant. Once consumer incomes recover, the market will face growing pressures. Exploring use of these meal components outside of the main meal occasion and added health hold potential for maintaining engagement, given consumer interest,” comments Claire Finnegan, research analyst at Mintel.
Looking specifically at the UK pasta and noodles market, which was valued at £1.06bn in 2020, a GlobalData report projected the market to grow at a CAGR of more than four per cent during 2021-2025.
Dried pasta led the UK pasta and noodles market in terms of per capita consumption in 2020, followed by dried & instant noodles and chilled pasta respectively, according to this report. However, the dried & instant noodles category is forecast to register the fastest growth in terms of value and volume, followed by chilled noodles.
In the UK pasta and noodles sector, private labels accounted for a value share of 48.5 per cent in 2020 (GlobalData, 2021), a trend which has since intensified as shoppers tried to save money as a result of the lingering cost of living crisis. Mintel says high inflation will leave brands susceptible to trading down by consumers, with own-label set to continue to benefit.
Price worries
Rice prices on international markets have soared in the wake of the Covid pandemic, the war in Ukraine and the impact of the El Nino weather phenomenon on production levels, and the recent export restrictions by top exporter India have compounded the problems.
Global rice prices reached a 15-year high in August after India announced in July a ban on exports of non-basmati white rice, which account for around a quarter of its total.
New Delhi followed it with a floor price, or minimum export price (MEP) of $1,200 (£985) a ton for the exports of basmati rice, a major part of the UK rice market, in August. It was expected to cut this floor price but the government last month said it would maintain the floor price until further notice.
A rime mill in Nalgonda , near Hyderabad, India. (Photo by NOAH SEELAM/AFP via Getty Images)
The decision is expected to further hamper overseas sales of the premium variety.
In India, basmati rice farmers are struggling to sell their produce as millers and traders have stopped coming to dozens of wholesale markets to buy.
“We are staring at massive losses,” Sukrampal Beniwal, who grows basmati varieties in the country's north, told Reuters. “We have harvested our crop, but there are no buyers.”
India and Pakistan are the only growers of basmati rice, and New Delhi exports more than four million metric tons of basmati.
Prices of another staple, pasta, which have already doubled in two years in the UK retail market, might continue its upward trajectory as drought in Canada and bad weather in Europe damages crops of durum wheat and reduces supplies available to flour millers and food companies.
The International Grains Council forecasts 2023-24 global durum production at a 22-year low, pushing world stocks to their smallest in three decades.
Retail pasta prices rose about 12 per cent this year in Europe, according to Nielsen.
Canada accounts for around half of global trade in durum but this year's harvest looks to be the country's second-smallest harvest in 12 years. Canadian farmers are expected to produce 4.3 million metric tons of durum this year, Statistics Canada reported in August.
The US is also expected to harvest a smaller crop due to dryness, while drought has cut production in Spain and severe weather has produced mixed quality in Italy and France.
However, Pasta giant Barilla, which processes local durum in various countries, said it currently saw no critical supply issues.
Consultancy Strategie Grains said pasta makers could possibly use more soft wheat where regulations allow and consumer income is limited. Durum, the hardest wheat, produces pasta with the prized “al dente” firm texture, unlike soft wheat.
“There's not going to be enough durum to supply the whole world at a normal demand level,” Strategie Grains analyst Severine Omnes-Maisons told Reuters.
Rice to the top
Despite not being grown in the UK, rice is big business here, with the UK rice industry worth around £900m annually. Sales in the UK retail rice market amount to £660m, as of October 2023, and the market is expected to grow annually by 3.93 per cent between 2023 and 2028 [Statista Market Insights].
Consumption of rice has gone up 530 per cent since the 1970s with 88 per cent of households in the UK buying rice to cook at home, according to The Rice Association.
The trade body returned with its multichannel consumer campaign, “Rice Up Your Life”, for the sixth year in September, celebrating one of the most convenient, easy to cook and great value foods available. Engaging with consumers on social channels and via influencers, the activity has showcased the many ways people can use and enjoy the different rice varieties, both in and out of home.
“National Rice Week is a wonderful opportunity for the whole food industry to celebrate the versatility of this great value grain, and help consumers learn more of the different ways to enjoy rice, appreciate it’s many benefits, and ultimately increase consumption,” said Tilda’s Jon Calland, chair of The Rice Association.
Rice can be used to create flavoursome, meals for every taste and type of cuisine, and UK consumers today enjoy the widest selection of rice varieties from across the world.
The UK imports rice primarily from India and Pakistan, which accounts for 33.56 per cent and 19.25 per cent share respectively of the total imports in 2021. Italy occupied the third position with 10.25 per cent share.
However, Greece was the fastest-growing import market between 2020 and 2021, reflecting the growing popularity of European rice. Earlier in March, industry body European Rice has launched a campaign to promote the category in the UK, working with social ambassador Bettina Campolucci Bordi from @bettinas_kitchen.
Showcasing its credentials to both consumers and the trade, the campaign focussed on boosting recognition of the two main varieties of European rice, including: Indica, a long grain variety representing around 25 per cent of EU rice production and Japonica, a shorter, medium grain, which dominates with 75 per cent of the production.
The campaign has also made clear the benefits of rice production, not only from an economic point of view, but also the environmental benefits to the natural eco system. The river deltas of North Greece along the rivers Axios, Aliakmon and Loudias provide some of the best rice harvesting conditions in the world and in turn, the rice cultivation expands the existing freshwater habitats, which then stimulates the growth of local fauna and flora across the region.
Rice is grown on an incredible 416,000 hectares across Europe, producing around 2.6 million tonnes a year, with 10 per cent of this coming from Greece – largely on the deltas of rivers Axios, Loudias and Aliakmon.
Tilda, which has 21.6 per cent penetration in the UK rice market [Kantar, 52w/e 03.09.23], has seen its Big Bag sales growing in value (+18.9 per cent) and volume (+15.5 per cent) in the last year [Circana, 52w/e 12.08.2023]. As the festival of Diwali is fast approaching, Anna Beheshti, head of marketing at Tilda, advises retailers to stock large bags of dry rice alongside different types of rice grains, complemented with a range of recipe ideas for those who want to celebrate with different traditional dishes.
“Independent retailers could for example, stock a product such as Jasmine Boil in the Bag Rice, in which Tilda is the number 1 brand [Circana],” she says.
Rice is a Diwali essential, forming the basis of many traditional dishes such as biriyani, pulao and sweet rice preparations, and Beheshti notes that consumers have the tendency to trade up to more premium brands during the festival period.
“In fact, Tilda is the number one brand within dry rice, currently holding 27 per cent of branded value sales and is adding more value growth than any other rice brand in the convenience channel (+534k)[Circana], demonstrating the importance of stocking well-known brands that consumers trust,” she adds.
Independent retailers are advised to stock the most popular SKUs within each category, such as Tilda’s Pure Basmati 5kg bag, which is the biggest selling 5kg Dry Rice SKU in the market.
“Sales of larger formats from the Tilda Big Bag range peak at this time of year as they represent excellent value-for-money, especially when cooking for large groups of people,” Beheshti says.
A sustainable push
As an increasing number of consumers embrace sustainability, whether by choosing brands that have ethical or environmentally sustainable practices and values, or by no longer purchasing certain products because they have concerns around the brand's ethical or sustainability practices or values, brands in the category has been amping up their sustainability credentials.
Tilda has announced its B Corp Certification in September, becoming the only UK brand in the rice sector to achieve this certification, given to companies that meet certain standards for social and environmental performance.
The leading rice producer, which recently released its 2022 Impact Report, has shown how it has been working with over 2700 farmers in India to encourage biodiversity, cut emissions and reduce the environmental impacts of growing rice.
This work includes testing new farming techniques such as Alternate Wet Drying (AWD), which sees farmers move away from the traditional method of flooding paddy fields to ensure roots are always submerged. Instead, farmers use pipes to monitor water levels, and water only when required. This reduces water and energy use, as well as greenhouse gas emissions.
Other techniques include the use of an Ecosystem-Based Pest Management Approach that supports biodiversity and limits the use of chemicals, protecting the crop and saving farmers money.
“This B Corp accreditation reflects our absolute commitment to being the most responsible rice producer in the world,” said Tilda managing director, Jean-Philippe “JP” Laborde.
“We must seek out and embrace all the ways we can reduce the environmental impacts of growing rice, from working with our progressive farmers and scrutinising our supply chain, to investing in our manufacturing, evolving our packaging and supporting local communities.
“We will continue to challenge ourselves, and others, to do better. Looking ahead, it is our ambition to share our learnings across the industry to help ensure that all successful measures that can make a positive difference to people and planet be adopted across the entire global rice supply chain.”
Unilver’s instant noodles brand Pot Noodle has meanwhile started trialling a new recyclable paper pot, made with FSC-certified paper, in the UK.
With an initial stock of 500,000 of the brand’s most popular flavour, Chicken & Mushroom, the new design marks the biggest innovation in its packaging since the brand launched over 40 years ago.
The brand aims to switch the full Pot Noodle range to paper pots if the shopper feedback is positive during the trial. The move could remove 4,000 tonnes of virgin plastic each year.
“Pot Noodle has been a much-loved British brand for over 40 years, and while our great taste will never change, we’re always challenging ways to make our products and packaging better,” Andre Burger, general manager foods (nutrition) at Unilever UK & Ireland, said.
“From material development and testing through to new manufacturing processes and capabilities, big packaging innovations require the investment of time and expertise across many teams and partners. There have been plenty of challenges along the way, but we are committed to reducing the plastic in our packaging and to a paper-based future for our pots, without compromising on the Pot Noodle experience our shoppers know and love. We are now excited to learn from this initial trial with the ambition of bringing our paper pots to more shoppers across the UK soon.”
The new pots can be recycled at home with other cardboard and paper and include on-pack recycling labels to provide clear guidance to UK shoppers on how to dispose of the packaging. A single layer of ultra-thin plastic film is used to provide barrier protection, which ensures ingredients remain fresh and protects the paper when water is added but doesn’t inhibit the recyclability of the pot.
Healthier alternatives
“Affordable convenience” is always a key consideration when consumers are asked about their capacity to stick to healthier eating regimes, because despite all the best intentions in the world one can’t ignore the unrelenting pressure of hectic lifestyles and packed diaries, which can often lead to poor meal choices.
This was a major consideration for SRSLY Low Carb when it once again ventured outside its bread-themed heartland to enter the world of low-carb yet intensely-flavoured, ready meals this July.
In its initial incarnation the five-strong “vegan proud” ready-meal offering consists of Chick’n Teriyaki Noodles, Chick’n Chow Mein Noodles, Vegetable Thai Red Noodles, Chick’n Pad Thai and Chick’n Mexican Rice.
Each recipe is a meticulously choreographed mix of low-carb noodles (or rice), aromatic spices, vegetables and crunchy peanuts that leaves one feeling both full and satisfied, even though each meal contains only a miserly 15g of carbs (300-ish calories per portion).
At the very heart of SRSLY’s ready meal innovation sits konjac noodles, an increasingly popular plant-based flour extracted from the root of the konjac yam plant. A cult stalwart of Asian cuisine, konjac-based noodles are quickly generating a loyalist following for those noodle aficionados seeking a credible alternative to old-school wheat-themed noodles that are high in unwelcome carbs and calories.
“Our ongoing remit is consumers searching for a low carb/sugar lifestyle that marries great taste with unrivalled convenience,” said SRSLY founder, Andy Welch. “In just the same way we saw the opportunity for low carb condiments and jams to prevent lazy, ill-informed decisions at either the breakfast table OR dinner time, we felt the need for fast turnaround ready meals crying out for a low carb hero that pairs fair price points with less predictable flavour formats.”
The real cleverness of Konjac noodles is the fact that it’s made with glucomannan, that in addition to being low in carbs also absorbs water in the digestive tract, which is instrumental when it comes to the consumer feeling both full and content.
The rice, pasta, and noodles market in the UK is shaped by factors such as health consciousness, convenience, sustainability and international trade agreements. But, this diverse and evolving sector reflects changing consumer preferences, a growing interest in healthier options, and the influence of a multicultural society. Increasing sales of these staples in store will require a combination of variety, convenience, competitive pricing, and effective marketing. By understanding your customer base and staying adaptable, you can capture a larger share of this staple food market.
UK retail sales rose less than expected in the runup to Christmas, according to official data Friday that deals a fresh blow to government hopes of growing the economy.
Separate figures revealed a temporary reprieve for prime minister Keir Starmer, however, as public borrowing fell sharply in November.
The updates follow news this week of higher inflation in Britain - an outcome that caused the Bank of England on Thursday to leave interest rates unchanged.
Retail sales by volume grew 0.2 per cent in November after a drop of 0.7 per cent in October, the Office for National Statistics said Friday.
That was less than analysts' consensus for a 0.5-percent gain.
"It is critical delayed spending materialises this Christmas to mitigate the poor start to retail's all-important festive season," noted Nicholas Found, senior consultant at Retail Economics.
"However, cautiousness lingers, slowing momentum in the economy. Households continue to adjust to higher prices (and) elevated interest rates."
He added that consumers were focused on buying "carefully timed promotions and essentials, while deferring bigger purchases".
The ONS reported that supermarkets benefited from higher food sales.
"Clothing stores sales dipped sharply once again, as retailers reported tough trading conditions," said Hannah Finselbach, senior statistician at the ONS.
Retail sales rose 0.2% in November 2024, following a fall of 0.7% in October 2024.
Growth in supermarkets and other non-food stores was partly offset by a fall in clothing retailers.
The Labour government's net borrowing meanwhile dropped to £11.2 billion last month, the lowest November figure in three years on higher tax receipts and lower debt-interest, the ONS added.
The figure had been £18.2 billion in October.
"Borrowing remains subject to upside risks... due to sticky interest rates, driven by markets repricing for fewer cuts in 2025," forecast Elliott Jordan-Doak, senior UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
Jacqui Baker, head of retail at RSM UK and chair of ICAEW’s Retail Group, commented that the later than usual Black Friday weekend meant November’s retail sales figures saw only a slight uptick as cost-conscious consumers held off to bag a bargain.
“Despite many retailers launching Black Friday offers early, November trade got off to a slow start which dragged on for most of the month. This was driven by clothing which fell to its lowest level since January 2022. The only saving grace was half-term and Halloween spending helped to slightly offset disappointing sales throughout November,” Baker said.
“As consumer confidence continues to build and shoppers return to the high street, this should translate into more retail spending next year. However, there are big challenges coming down the track for the sector, so retailers will be banking on a consumer-led recovery to come to fruition so they can combat a surge in costs.”
Thomas Pugh, economist at RSM UK, added: “The tick up in retail sales volumes in November suggests that the stagnation which has gripped the UK economy since the summer continued into the final months of the year.
“While the recent strong pay growth numbers may make the Bank of England uncomfortable, it means that real incomes are growing at just under 3 per cent, which suggests consumer spending should gradually rise next year. However, consumers remain extremely cautious. The very sharp drop in clothing sales in particular could suggest that consumers are cutting back on non-essential purchases.
“We still expect a rise in consumer spending next year, due to strong wage growth and a gradual decline in the saving rate, to help drive an acceleration in GDP growth. But the risks are clearly building that cautious consumers choose to save rather than spend increases in income, raising the risk of weaker growth continuing through the first half of next year.”
Dutch dairy collective FrieslandCampina has agreed to merge with smaller Belgian rival Milcobel, creating a leading dairy cooperative.
FrieslandCampina, whose brands include Yazoo and Chocomel, said the merger will provide the foundation for a future-oriented organisation that has dairy front and centre for member dairy farmers, employees, consumers, and customers.
The proposed merger is subject to approval by FrieslandCampina’s members’ council, Milcobel’s extraordinary meeting of shareholders, and antitrust authorities. The companies said member dairy farmers, employees, works councils and trade unions have been informed about the merger proposal.
Both companies, owned by dairy farmers for many generations, complement each other well in market positions and product portfolios. The merger offers further business development opportunities in market segments such as consumer cheese, mozzarella, white dairy products (such as milk, buttermilk, and yoghurt), and ingredients, as well as benefits in efficiency and expertise, for example in the area of sustainability.
“The combination of FrieslandCampina and Milcobel is bigger than the sum of its parts. It creates a future-oriented, combined dairy cooperative that is resilient and capable of capitalising on opportunities in the dynamic global dairy market,” said Sybren Attema, chair of the board of Zuivelcoöperatie FrieslandCampina.
“This strengthens our appeal to member dairy farmers, business partners and employees. Moreover, this step supports us in realising a leading milk price for our member dairy farmers, now and in the future.”
Betty Eeckhaut, chair of the board of Milcobel, said: “The cooperative philosophy, which is deeply rooted at both Milcobel and FrieslandCampina, is the bedrock for this proposed merger. Our goal remains to create added value for our member dairy farmers.
“Through our regional complementarity we will become the cooperative dairy partner of choice for current and new members, with a solid milk supply for a successful future. For employees, the new organisation provides great opportunities to grow in an international environment. For customers, this merger means more innovation, an expanded product portfolio and further professionalisation of our services.”
Based on the combined 2023 annual figures of FrieslandCampina and Milcobel - excluding Milcobel's Ysco business, which is in the process of being divested - the new, combined organisation has a pro forma revenue of more than €14 billion (£11.6bn) , operates in 30 countries, employs nearly 22,000 staff worldwide, and processes a total volume of approximately 10 billion kilograms of milk.
The boards of the cooperatives and executive management of the two parties have signed a framework agreement regarding the proposed merger. The companies aim to finalise a detailed merger proposal in the first half of 2025, which will then be discussed with the members of FrieslandCampina and the shareholders of Milcobel.
The UK government has pledged stronger measures to combat anti-social behaviour and shoplifting, which it acknowledges as serious crimes that disrupt communities and harm businesses.
Addressing a House of Lords debate on Monday, Home Office minister Lord Hanson detailed plans to abolish the controversial £200 shoplifting threshold and to introduce a new offence for assaults on retail workers.
“Anti-social behaviour and shop theft are not minor crimes. They cause disruption in our communities,” Lord Hanson stated.
“Shop theft in particular costs retailers across the nation millions of pounds, which is passed on to us as customers, and it is not acceptable. That is why, on shop theft, we are going to end the £200 effective immunity. For shop workers, we will protect them by introducing a new offence, because they are very often upholding the law in their shops on alcohol, tobacco and other sales.”
He also emphasised the government’s commitment to restoring visible neighbourhood policing, with 13,000 additional officers and Police Community Support Officers (PCSOs) planned, as well as piloting new “respect orders” to ban repeat offenders from town centres.
Later on Wednesday, the home secretary announced a £1 billion funding boost for police across England and Wales to restore neighbourhood policing. The money will include new funding of £100 million to kickstart the recruitment of 13,000 additional neighbourhood officers, community support officers and special constables.
The debate was initiated by Labour peer Baroness Ayesha Hazarika, who painted a vivid picture of the toll anti-social behaviour takes on workers and communities. “Many people who work in shops feel like they are living in a war zone,” she said. “Anti-social behaviour can so often be the canary down the coal mine and tell a wider story about what kind of society we are living in.”
Baroness Hazarika also urged the use of technology such as facial recognition to target hardened criminals responsible for terrorising shops and local residents.
Lord Hanson agreed, adding that the government is equipping police with the resources to better address persistent offenders, including funding initiatives like Operation Pegasus, which targets organised retail crime.
Retail trade union Usdaw has welcomed the Lords debate tackling anti-social behaviour and shoplifting.
“We very much welcome that Baroness Hazarika has raised this hugely important issue for our members. It is shocking that over two-thirds of our members working in retail are suffering abuse from customers, with far too many experiencing threats and violence,” Paddy Lillis, Usdaw general secretary, said.
“After 14 years of successive Tory governments not delivering the change we need on retail crime, we are pleased that the new Labour government announced a Crime and Policing Bill in the King’s Speech and all the measures that it contains, as set out by Lord Hanson.
“The chancellor announced in the Budget funding to tackle the organised criminals responsible for the increase in shoplifting, and the government has promised more uniformed officer patrols in shopping areas. It is our hope that these new measures will help give shop workers the respect they deserve.”
In response to the mounting pressures faced by postmasters across the UK, the Post Office has unveiled a centralised wellbeing platform aimed at simplifying access to support resources.
Post Office said the surge in shoplifting and violent incidents, documented in the 2024 ACS Crime Report, has only intensified the demand for comprehensive support.
With shoplifting on the rise year-on-year since 2021, and the Christmas trading period presenting heightened risks due to increased footfall and stock levels, the wellbeing of postmasters has become a pressing concern.
The new wellbeing platform, accessible via the Branch Hub app, provides a single point of access to a range of resources designed to meet Postmasters' immediate and ongoing needs. It is divided into three sections:
‘I Need Help Right Now’: Offers urgent support, including access to emergency services, mental health first aiders, , area and business support managers and organisations like Samaritans.
‘More Support and Guidance’: Provides practical tools such as security advice, social media abuse resources, and connections to organisations like Citizens Advice and Mind.
‘Access Community Support’: Encourages peer connections through WhatsApp and Facebook groups, as well as in-person meetings.
The initiative, a collaboration between the Post Office, the National Federation of Sub-Postmasters (NFSP), and Voice of the Postmaster, underscores a shift towards a more cooperative approach between historically independent groups, and creates a shared wellbeing network that is accessible to all postmasters, regardless of affiliation.
Mark Eldridge, postmaster experience director at Post Office, said the initiative will ensure that anyone who needs help can find it quickly and easily.
“It’s about creating a culture of care and resilience in the face of the challenges our postmasters face every day. If the initiative means helping just one postmaster, then we have done our job successfully,” Eldridge added.
Tony Fleming, postmaster at Thorne Post Office, shared how the initiative provided vital support following a traumatic armed robbery at his branch.
“It was incredibly difficult for the person faced with this violent threat, as well as the wider team. It’s a traumatic experience to go through as part of your day job and having the immediate support of the Wellbeing resource was invaluable – it really was wellbeing personified and gave me and everyone in the branch the support to get back to doing what we do best, serving our fantastic community in Thorne,” Fleming said.
Paul Patel, a Hampshire-based postmaster, echoed this sentiment, highlighting the platform’s ability to combat isolation and foster collaboration:
“It has been a difficult time for all postmasters who continue to serve their communities every day often feeling alone in their daily work life. It’s such a privilege to collaborate across the network to support Postmasters wellbeing from forming friendships to guiding for more professional support.”
Christine Donnelly of the NFSP highlighted the initiative’s accessibility and symbolic value.
“From a postmaster perspective this works on several levels. It is an easily accessible resource that offers advice and facts, but it also says by implication that we care, that participants from different areas of the business recognised a need and worked together to make it the best it could be,” Donnelly noted.
“It says you are not alone or the only one - how can you be if there is a whole site available?”
The Post Office plans to evolve the platform based on postmaster feedback, ensuring it remains relevant to emerging challenges.
Earlier this week, Post Office has announced a £20 million boost for postmasters to address their concerns that their income has not kept up with inflation over the past decade.
Both independent postmasters and Post Office’s retail partners that operate branches on its behalf will receive the top-up payment ahead of Christmas. The top-up payment will be based on both the standard fixed and variable remuneration the branch received in November.
Independent retailers have weathered one of their most challenging years in 2024, with multiple headwinds affecting the sector, according to the British Independent Retailers Association (Bira).
With pressures mounting throughout the year, independent retailers have faced an increasingly difficult trading environment marked by changing consumer behaviour and economic uncertainties.
"2024 has presented unprecedented challenges for independent retailers,” said Andrew Goodacre, CEO of Bira. “Consumer spending on non-food items has declined significantly, while persistent footfall problems and fragile consumer confidence have impacted high streets nationwide. Despite inflation coming under control, interest rates are falling slowly, affecting both business and consumer spending."
"The retail landscape has become increasingly competitive, with large chains implementing deeper and longer discount periods. The rise of ultra-fast fashion retailers like Shein and Temu has created additional pressure on margins, whilst deflation on non-food items has further squeezed profits," he added.
The sector has also grappled with retail crime, with Bira's latest survey showing 78.79 per cent of businesses reporting increased frequency or severity of theft incidents.
Research from PwC earlier this year also highlighted the scale of the challenge, with 6,945 outlets shutting – equating to 38 store closures per day, up from 36 per day in 2023. The figure outnumbered the rate of new store openings, which rose modestly to 4,661, averaging 25 openings each day.
Mr Goodacre said: "The key difficulties independent retailers are grappling with include low consumer demand, as consumer confidence remains fragile and shoppers are highly value-focused. Independent shops struggle to compete on price as large chains are able to discount more deeply and for longer periods."
Looking ahead to 2025, retailers face new challenges. He added: "Medium-sized retailers will see a significant increase in employment costs, while thousands of smaller retailers will be hit with higher business rates as relief drops from 75per cent to 40 per cent."
However, Mr Goodacre said he sees reasons for optimism and added: "We expect 2025 to bring some positive changes. Wages are set to rise faster than inflation, which should boost consumer spending. Both inflation and interest rates should continue to fall, helping to rebuild consumer confidence."
"The circular economy presents a growing opportunity for independent retailers, and with economic growth set to improve, we anticipate better trading conditions. While challenges remain, independent retailers who stay adaptable and resilient will find opportunities in the year ahead."