Conservatives will take bold actions to crackdown on rising retail crime as well as to strengthen the backbone of Britain’s economy, prime minister Rishi Sunak has said as he called on Brits for their support ahead of General Elections on July 4.
Speaking exclusively to Eastern Eye, a publication of Asian Media Group (the house of Asian Trader), the prime minister declared that fighting retail crime is very much on his priority list and he will continue taking bold steps to protect shop workers against abuse.
He said, “Anti-social behaviour and crimes such as shoplifting are a blight on our communities and scourge for local businesses. That’s why as PM, I have launched plans to tackle anti-social behaviour plan and fight retail crime plan.
“On anti-social behaviour, we have toughened up the police response to drugs and expanded testing on arrest, banned nitrous oxide, will make perpetrators repair the damage they cause and are targeting policing in hotspot areas. The plan is working with anti-social behaviour down by half in some pilot areas and we are now rolling the plan out nationwide.”
In April this year, the Conservative-led government has announced that assaulting a retail worker will be made a standalone criminal offence under which those found guilty could be sent to prison for up to six months, receive an unlimited fine and be banned from going back to the shop where they committed the crimes.
Alongside these measures introduced by Sunak, the serial offenders will be required to wear tags to track their movements. There will also be increased use of facial recognition technology to help combat crime on high streets and other public spaces.
The new measures were included in the Criminal Justice Bill amendment though they could not be put into action due to the announcement of the Election date.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Kent visits Swans Farm Shop to meet with apprentices. Picture by Edward Massey / CCHQ
During the exclusive conversation with Shailesh Solanki, executive editor of Asian Media Group, Sunak once again made clear that the Conservative party, if it comes to power, will make sure to bring forward the changes proposed in the last term.
“On shoplifting, we will create a new standalone offence of assaulting a retail worker, introduce electronic tagging for violent behaviour or serial shoplifting and making more use of facial recognition to catch suspects.
“Since 2010, we have recruited 20,000 new police officers since 2019, and we will go further by recruiting 8,000 new full-time police officers with full power of arrest as part of a new neighbourhood policing programme.”
Sunak reminded the voters that Labour has “no plan to tackle crime”.
“Crime is down since the Conservatives came to power and we will continue to take bold action to protect shopkeepers and local communities and make our streets safer. Labour have no plan to tackle crime and would take us back to square one,” he said.
The Prime Minister was on a visit to the Shree Kutch Satsang Swaminarayan Temple in Harrow, in northwest London, when he also talkedin detail about his ideas, future plans, background as well as faith, saying Hindu "dharma" (sense of duty) drove him to accept the most challenging job in the UK.
“I was raised with values of service to your community and particularly dharma as you'll understand it,” said Sunak.
“It's about doing one's duty, and that's how I approach this job. I'm so grateful to everything that this country has done for me and my family, and that's why I love it, and I work very hard in this job to try and help other people.
“That philosophy gives me a sense that, even when things are difficult, of which there are plenty of difficult times in this job, having something that you can kind of anchor with, get support and courage from, and strength and resilience from, is really important.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Bob Blackman visit the Shree Kutch Satsang Swaminarayan Temple. Picture by Edward Massey / CCHQ
“It teaches me to work as hard as I can, do what I believe is right, and try and not get as fixated on the outcome, because I've got to focus on doing what I think is right, and putting as much into it as I can, and doing my duty right, and even if it's difficult, that's what I'm here to do," he said.
Sunak also explained how his sense of duty and serving communities came from his childhood.
He said, “I was really lucky, because I was raised in a very loving home and very supportive family. I think family is probably the most important thing in all of our lives, and that's something I think governments don't always talk about.
“I'm happy to talk about it because I think it is important, but I was also raised with the values of hard work and service and for us, serving the community in different ways was very important to my parents, both in their jobs as pharmacist and GP.
“They went above and beyond to really look after people that they were responsible for and had a duty to. But also, whether it was at the mandir or other things, that was instilled in us that you have to spend your time helping other people in your community in lots of different ways.”
“You don't get anywhere in life without hard work, you have to work hard for what you want.”
The prime minister took over leading the country and his party at a time when Britain’s economy went into a tailspin caused by his predecessor, Liz Truss. Her mini budget included £45billion of unfunded tax cuts, which led to Truss’ downfall and promoted her resignation after 49 days.
In 2022, during the Tory party leadership contest, Sunak warned members that his opponent’s tax cut plans would “tip millions of people into misery”. The markets panicked and sterling hit a record low.
Even so, Sunak said he had no choice but to accept responsibility to guide his country to a better future.
He recalled, “It was clearly going to be very difficult that wasn't me [saying it], someone else described it as the worst hospital pass (someone put in a difficult or unpleasant situation) for any incoming prime minister.
“But I didn't feel I had any choice, I felt it was my duty, given what I said over the summer about the economy, and that's what I focused on. Then making sure we restore that economic stability, which we have now done, 11 per cent inflation now back on target, the economy growing faster than our competitors, wages rising, interest rates on the verge of being cut.
“So, I think we have on the thing that was most important, really made good progress,” he said.
With Kalpesh Solanki and Shailesh Solanki (Pic credit: Edward Massey)
It was Conservative MPs who elected Sunak as their party leader, after Penny Mordaunt and former prime minister, Boris Johnson, dropped out of the contest in October 2022. In doing so, he became the first PM of south Asian heritage to occupy Number 10.
The mantle of office, he admitted, weighed heavily.
“I feel an extra sense of responsibility, because I know lots of people are looking up to me and being the first at something, it does come with that,” said Sunak.
“I don't want to let people down, and I want to do a good job for everyone, but you do have that extra kind of mantle of responsibility, a lot of people are looking up to me to do a good job. So, you try and do the best you can.”
Sunak added that while his faith guided him, he did rely on the support of his wife, Akshata, daughter of the Indian tech-billionaire, Narayana Murthy.
“Akshata is an incredible support to me and provides a lot of strength and support [during] a lot of difficult times. And my girls are great because they're young, and largely what I do doesn't bother them, and they're not that focused on it, because they're still little enough, which is great.
“What they are is a wonderful distraction away from it all, because they're more interested in their games, or what they're playing, and what they're watching on tele, or their hobbies.
“I don't see them as much, I [don’t] get to spend as much time with them, but when I do, it is a nice switch off and [get] a break from everything else, because they're just young enough that this is not something that they're worried about. They're not sitting there watching the six o'clock news or debates, things like that.”
Speaking about his stance on immigration, the Prime Minister said that he was “living proof of how tolerant and compassionate our country is”.
“We were welcomed into this country, and I've always said ours is a country where if you come here and you're willing to work hard, integrate and share a set of common values, the sky's the limit for what you can achieve, and I'm living proof of that.
“That's something we should celebrate, we're the most successful multiethnic, multi faith democracy anywhere in the world. That should be a source of enormous pride for us. But I do think that that success would be put at risk if we are not able to demonstrate to everybody that we are in control of the levels of immigration, and the levels over the past few years have just simply been too high.
“It's right that they come back down to more sustainable levels, because that eases pressure on public services. We need to make sure that we're reforming our welfare system here at home, so that we can support people into work. When we've got so many people on the welfare system, particularly since the pandemic, that with the right support, they can work.”
Britain's Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and his wife Akshata Murty (Photo by HENRY NICHOLLS/AFP via Getty Images)
On being questioned whether we should celebrate more the contribution of communities of colour, Sunak explained, “I think in one sense, it's big deal that I'm first British-Asian prime minister. But in one sense, it was not a big deal, and I think that that is a good thing in the sense that because people think that it’s just something which is British.
“I think that is a positive thing, in a way, because it is perceived as something that is perfectly reasonable and possible in this country, and I think that is a good thing.
“But of course, we constantly need to make progress, as every country does, and just making sure that we are a tolerant country where everyone, regardless of their background, not just ethnic or religious background, is getting the opportunities that they deserve to live a fulfilling life.”
Sunak was equally clear that he could and would continue to help minority communities.
“I’m proud of the Conservatives’ record on helping Asian and black communities,” he continued.
“Since 2010, employment in ethnic minority groups has gone up by 70 per cent, and ethnic diversity at the top of Britain’s biggest companies has also increased – 96 of the FTSE 100 companies now have at least one ethnic minority director. While there is more to do, we should celebrate these achievements and not do down the progress our country has made.”
With the exception of Simon Arora of B&M Stores, FTSE 100 companies have never appointed a British born Asian or black chief executive, relying on importing bosses of colour from countries such as America.
“I think we have made progress on boards,” the prime minister countered. “What the government has done in over the last [few] years, working in the industry, is focus on corporate governance and boards and where you have seen a really big change in companies, in board representation.
“That's something where it's right that we have made progress, but with all these things we keep going, when the journey is not completed. I think role models are important, and the more people are able to be successful, the more people look at them and say, ‘Oh, I can do that, that door is not closed for me.’
“That is why we are constantly making sure opportunity is spread far and wide is important. I'm not one of these people who believes in top-down quotas. I believe in a meritocracy, in making sure that everyone has the right opportunities, and any artificial unfair barriers are removed.”
Sunak promised to cut taxes should he be elected on 4 July by abolishing national insurance for those who are self-employed.
Research from Queen Mary University of London suggests that in London most Asians will vote for Labour in significant margins. But the one group where there is a mere four-point lead for Labour is among British-Indians.
Sunak made a direct appeal for south Asian communities to vote for his party.
“From a global pandemic to the biggest energy shock for almost half a century, Britain has been hit by a number of unprecedented challenges in the past few years,” he said.
“But by sticking to our clear plan, we have now turned a corner. My first priority as PM was to halve inflation and it’s now back to normal at two percent target – lower than in Europe and the US. Real wages are rising, Britain was the joint fastest-growing economy in the G7 in the first quarter of this year, and we have been able to cut the average worker’s taxes by £900 since January.
(Photo by BENJAMIN CREMEL/AFP via Getty Images)
“With your vote, I will take further bold action in the next parliament, cutting taxes for workers, parents and pensioners, and helping the backbone of Britain’s economy – small businesses – to thrive.”
Concluding about contribution of Asian and Black communities in Britain, Sunak stated that he is enormously proud to be the first British Asian Prime Minister of what he believes as the most successful multi-ethnic democracy in the world.
“My grandmother came here with almost nothing. In no other country would my story be possible. And I’m proud of the Conservatives’ record on helping Asian and Black communities.
“Since 2010, employment in ethnic minority groups has gone up by 70 percent and ethnic diversity at the top of Britain’s biggest companies has also increased – 96 of the FTSE 100 companies now have at least one ethnic minority director. While there is more to do, we should celebrate these achievements and not bring down the progress our country has made.
“I will continue to work as hard as I can for you, cutting working people’s taxes too so they have more money in their pockets and growing the economy to create new opportunities. Just this year, we have cut taxes by £900 for the average worker, and my clear plan will deliver a further tax cut in the next Parliament, saving the average worker £1,350 in total, and abolish National Insurance completely for the self-employed.”
Warning the voters against Labour’s expected moves, Sunak declared that what Britain needs for the coming five years is a bold action plan.
Sunak said, “Right now, I’m focused on fighting for every vote at this election so I can continue with our clear plan to cut taxes, protect pensioners and build a more secure, more prosperous future for our children and grandchildren.
“I am working flat out in this election because I passionately believe that Britain needs the bold action our plan sets out for the next five years. Labour would raise taxes, raid pensions and take us back to square one.
“From a global pandemic to the biggest energy shock for almost half a century, Britain has been hit by a number of unprecedented challenges in the past few years. But by sticking to our clear plan, we have now turned a corner. My first priority as PM was to halve inflation and it’s now back to normal at two percent target – lower than in Europe and the US.
“Real wages are rising, Britain was the joint fastest-growing economy in the G7 in the first quarter of this year, and we have been able to cut the average worker’s taxes by £900 since January. With your vote, I will take further bold action in the next Parliament, cutting taxes for workers, parents and pensioners, and helping the backbone of Britain’s economy – small businesses – to thrive.
“In contrast, Labour offers a tax rise of £2,094, a raid on people’s pensions and more burdensome regulation on small businesses. They would take us back to square one and cannot be trusted," he said.
The UK retail sector is bracing for a challenging but opportunity-filled 2025, according to Jacqui Baker, head of retail at RSM UK. While the industry grapples with rising costs and heightened crime, advancements in artificial intelligence and a revival of the high street offer potential pathways to growth, she said.
The latest Budget delivered a tough blow to the retail sector, exacerbating existing financial pressures. Retailers, who already shoulder a significant portion of business rates and rely heavily on a large workforce, face increased costs from rising employers’ National Insurance Contributions.
“Higher costs will also eat into available funds for future pay rises, benefits or pension contributions – hitting retailers’ cashflow in the short term and employees’ remuneration in the longer term,” Baker said.
“Retailers must get creative to manage their margins and attract footfall and spend, plus think outside the box to incentivise employees if they’re to hold onto talented staff.”
On the brighter side, falling inflation and lower interest rates could ease operational costs and restore consumer confidence, potentially driving retail spending upward.
High street resurgence
Consumers’ shopping habits are evolving, with a hybrid approach blending online and in-store purchases. According to RSM UK’s Consumer Outlook, 46 per cent of consumers prefer in-store shopping for weekly purchases, compared to 29 per cent for online, but the preference shifts to 47 per cent for online shopping for monthly buys and to 29 per cent for in-store. The most important in-store aspect for consumers was ease of finding products (59%), versus convenience (37%) for online.
“Tactile shopping experiences remain an integral part of the purchase journey for shoppers, so retailers need to prioritise convenience and the opportunity for discovery to bring consumers back to the high street,” Baker noted.
The government’s initiative to auction empty shops is expected to make brick-and-mortar stores more accessible to smaller, independent retailers, further boosting high street revival, she added.
A security guard stands in the doorway of a store in the Oxford Street retail area on December 13, 2024 in London, EnglandPhoto by Leon Neal/Getty Images
Meanwhile, retail crime, exacerbated by cost-of-living pressures, remains a significant concern, with shoplifting incidents reaching record highs. From organised social media-driven thefts to fraudulent delivery claims, the methods are becoming increasingly sophisticated.
“Crime has a knock-on effect on both margins and staff morale, so while the government is cracking down on retail crime, retailers also have a part to play by investing in data to prevent and detect theft,” Baker said.
“Data is extremely powerful in minimising losses and improving the overall operational efficiency of the business.”
AI as a game-changer
Artificial intelligence is emerging as a transformative force for the retail sector. From personalised product recommendations and inventory optimisation to immersive augmented reality experiences, AI is reshaping the shopping landscape.
“AI will undoubtedly become even more sophisticated over time, creating immersive and interactive experiences that bridge the gap between online and in-store. Emerging trends include hyper-personalisation throughout the entire shopping journey, autonomous stores and checkouts, and enhanced augmented reality experiences to “try” products before buying,” she said, adding that AI will be a “transformative investment” that determines the long-term viability of retail businesses.
The Amazon Fresh store in Ealing, LondonPhoto: Amazon
As financial pressures ease, sustainability is climbing up the consumer agenda. RSM’s Consumer Outlook found 46 per cent would pay more for products that are sustainably sourced, up from 28 per cent last year; while 44 per cent would pay more for products with environmentally friendly packaging, compared to 36 per cent last year.
“However, ESG concerns vary depending on age and income, holding greater importance among high earners and millennials. With financial pressures expected to continue easing next year, we anticipate a renewal of sustainability and environmentally conscious spending habits,” Baker noted.
“Retailers ought to tap into this by understanding the preferences of different demographics and most importantly, their target market.”
Southend-on-Sea City Council officials have secured food condemnation orders from Chelmsford Magistrates Court, resulting in the seizure and destruction of 1,100 unauthorised soft drinks.
The condemned drinks, including Mountain Dew, 7-UP, Mirinda, and G Fuel energy drinks, were found during routine inspections of food businesses across Southend by the council’s environmental health officers.
Council said these products contained either banned additives like Calcium Disodium EDTA or unauthorised novel ingredients such as Potassium Beta-hydroxybutyrate.
Calcium Disodium EDTA has been linked to potential reproductive and developmental effects and may contribute to colon cancer, according to some studies. Potassium Beta-hydroxybutyrate has not undergone safety assessments, making its inclusion in food products unlawful.
Independent analysis certified that the drinks failed to meet UK food safety standards. Magistrates ordered their destruction and ruled that the council's costs, expected to total close to £2,000, be recovered from the businesses involved.
“These products, clearly marketed towards children, contain banned or unauthorised ingredients. Southend-on-Sea City Council will always take action to protect the public, using enforcement powers to ensure unsafe products are removed from sale,” Cllr Kevin Robinson, cabinet member for regeneration, major projects, and regulatory services, said.
“As Christmas approaches, we hope this sends a strong message to businesses importing or selling such products: they risk significant costs and possible prosecution.”
The council urged residents to check labels when purchasing imported sweets and drinks, ensuring they include English-language details and a UK importer's address.
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A customer browses clothes inside Charity Super.Mkt at Brent Cross Shopping centre in north London on, December 17, 2024
Bursting with customers one afternoon the week before Christmas, a second-hand charity shop in London's Marylebone High Street looked even busier than the upscale retailers surrounding it.
One man grabbed two puzzle sets and a giant plush toy as a present for friends, another picked out a notebook for his wife.
“Since the end of September, we've seen a huge uplift in people coming to our shops and shopping pre-loved,” said Ollie Mead, who oversees the shop displays - currently glittering with Christmas decorations - for Oxfam charity stores around London.
At the chain of second-hand stores run by the British charity, shoppers can find used, or "pre-loved", toys, books, bric-a-brac and clothes for a fraction of the price of new items.
Popular for personal shopping, charity stores and online second-hand retailers are seeing an unlikely surge in interest for Christmas gifts, a time of year often criticised for promoting consumerism and generating waste.
A report last month by second-hand retail platform Vinted and consultants RetailEconomics found UK customers were set to spend £2 billion on second-hand Christmas gifts this year, around 10 per cent of the £20 billion Christmas gift market.
A woman browses some of the Christmas gift ideas in a store on December 13, 2024 in London, England. Photo by Leon Neal/Getty Images
In an Oxfam survey last year, 33 per cent were going to buy second-hand gifts for Christmas, up from 25 percent in 2021.
“This shift is evident on Vinted,” Adam Jay, Vinted's marketplace CEO, told AFP.
“We've observed an increase in UK members searching for 'gift' between October and December compared to the same period last year.”
According to Mead, who has gifted second-hand items for the last three Christmas seasons, sustainability concerns and cost-of-living pressures are “huge factors”.
Skimming the racks at the central London store, doctor Ed Burdett found a keychain and notebook for his wife.
“We're saving up at the moment, and she likes to give things another life. So it'll be the perfect thing for her,” Burdett, 50, told AFP.
“It's nice to spend less, and to know that it goes to a good place rather than to a high street shop.”
'Quirky, weird
Wayne Hemingway, designer and co-founder of Charity Super.Mkt, a brand which aims to put charity shops in empty shopping centres and high street spaces, has himself given second-hand Christmas gifts for “many, many years”.
“When I first started doing it, it was classed as quirky and weird,” he said, adding it was now going more “mainstream”.
Similarly, when he first started selling second-hand clothes over 40 years ago, “at Christmas your sales always nosedive(d) because everybody wanted new”.
Now, however, “we are seeing an increase at Christmas sales just like a new shop would”, Hemingway told AFP.
“Last weekend sales were crazy, the shop was mobbed,” he said, adding all his stores had seen a 20-percent higher than expected rise in sales in the weeks before Christmas.
“Things are changing for the better... It's gone from second-hand not being what you do at Christmas, to part of what you do.”
Young people are driving the trend by making more conscious fashion choices, and with a commitment to a “circular economy” and to “the idea of giving back (in) a society that is being more generous and fair,” he said.
At the store till, 56-year-old Jennifer Odibo was unconvinced.
Buying herself a striking orange jacket, she said she “loves vintage”.
But for most people, she confessed she would not get a used gift. “Christmas is special, it needs to be something they would cherish, something new,” said Odibo.
“For Christmas, I'll go and buy something nice, either at Selfridges or Fenwick,” she added, listing two iconic British department stores.
Hemingway conceded some shoppers “feel that people expect something new” at Christmas.
“We're on a journey. The world is on a journey, but it's got a long way to go,” he added.
According to Tetyana Solovey, a sociology researcher at the University of Manchester, “for some people, it could be a bit weird to celebrate it (Christmas) with reusing.”
“But it could be a shift in consciousness if we might be able to celebrate the new year by giving a second life to something,” Solovey told AFP.
“That could be a very sustainable approach to Christmas, which I think is quite wonderful.”
Lancashire Mind’s 11th Mental Elf fun run was its biggest and best yet – a sell-out event with more than 400 people running and walking in aid of the mental charity, plus dozens more volunteering to make the day a huge success.
The winter sun shone on Worden Park in Leyland as families gathered for either a 5K course, a 2K run, or a Challenge Yours’Elf distance which saw many people running 10K with the usual running gear replaced with jazzy elf leggings, tinsel and Christmas hats.
And now the pennies have been counted, Lancashire Mind has announced that the event raised a fantastic £17,000.
This amount of money allows Lancashire Mind to deliver, for example, its 10-week Bounce Forward resilience programme in eight schools, reaching more than 240 children with skills and strategies that they can carry with them throughout their lives, making them more likely to ‘bounce forward’ through tough times.
The event was headline sponsored by SPAR for a third year through its association with James Hall & Co. Ltd, SPAR UK’s primary retailer, wholesaler, and distributor for the North of England.
“On behalf of the entire team at Lancashire Mind, we want to extend a heartfelt thank you to the 400+ incredible participants who joined us for Mental Elf 2024!” said Organiser Nicola Tomkins, Community and Events Fundraiser at Lancashire Mind.
“Your support, energy and commitment to raising awareness for mental health makes all the difference. Together, we've taken another important step towards breaking the stigma around mental health and promoting wellbeing for all in our community. We couldn't have done it without you!”
Worden Hall became the hub of the event where people could enjoy music from the Worldwise Samba Drummers and BBC stars Jasmine and Gabriella T, plus lots of family friendly activities and a chance to meet Father Christmas. Pets also got in on the act in the best dressed dog competition.
Lancashire Mind CEO David Dunwell said: “It was heart-warming day, full of community spirit and festive cheer, but with a serious aim to raise funds for mental health.
“We are so grateful to everyone who bought a ticket and fundraised or donated to help us smash our target. The money raised goes directly to supporting Lancashire Mind’s life-changing mental health services. These funds help provide wellbeing coaching, support groups, and educational programmes to individuals and families in need of mental health support in our community.”
The concept of Mental Elf was created by Lancashire Mind and news of the event has spread right across the country in recent years, with around 40 other local Mind charities hosting a similar event in 2024.
Lancashire schools were also encouraged to host their own Mental Elf-themed event this year, whether that was a run, bake sale or dress up day, and raised more than £1,000 in total.
Philippa Harrington, Marketing Manager at James Hall & Co. Ltd, said: “There was a lovely festive feel in the air at Mental Elf and we were delighted to see even more individuals, families, and canine companions taking part in its new home of Worden Park.
“We are also very pleased to see the uptake that Mental Elf has had in schools, and congratulations go to the Lancashire Mind team for taking it to new participants and for raising a fantastic amount of money for an important cause.”
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A woman walks past a window display promoting an ongoing sale, on December 13, 2024 in London, England.
UK retail sales rose less than expected in the runup to Christmas, according to official data Friday that deals a fresh blow to government hopes of growing the economy.
Separate figures revealed a temporary reprieve for prime minister Keir Starmer, however, as public borrowing fell sharply in November.
The updates follow news this week of higher inflation in Britain - an outcome that caused the Bank of England on Thursday to leave interest rates unchanged.
Retail sales by volume grew 0.2 per cent in November after a drop of 0.7 per cent in October, the Office for National Statistics said Friday.
That was less than analysts' consensus for a 0.5-percent gain.
"It is critical delayed spending materialises this Christmas to mitigate the poor start to retail's all-important festive season," noted Nicholas Found, senior consultant at Retail Economics.
"However, cautiousness lingers, slowing momentum in the economy. Households continue to adjust to higher prices (and) elevated interest rates."
He added that consumers were focused on buying "carefully timed promotions and essentials, while deferring bigger purchases".
The ONS reported that supermarkets benefited from higher food sales.
"Clothing stores sales dipped sharply once again, as retailers reported tough trading conditions," said Hannah Finselbach, senior statistician at the ONS.
Retail sales rose 0.2% in November 2024, following a fall of 0.7% in October 2024.
Growth in supermarkets and other non-food stores was partly offset by a fall in clothing retailers.
The Labour government's net borrowing meanwhile dropped to £11.2 billion last month, the lowest November figure in three years on higher tax receipts and lower debt-interest, the ONS added.
The figure had been £18.2 billion in October.
"Borrowing remains subject to upside risks... due to sticky interest rates, driven by markets repricing for fewer cuts in 2025," forecast Elliott Jordan-Doak, senior UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
Jacqui Baker, head of retail at RSM UK and chair of ICAEW’s Retail Group, commented that the later than usual Black Friday weekend meant November’s retail sales figures saw only a slight uptick as cost-conscious consumers held off to bag a bargain.
“Despite many retailers launching Black Friday offers early, November trade got off to a slow start which dragged on for most of the month. This was driven by clothing which fell to its lowest level since January 2022. The only saving grace was half-term and Halloween spending helped to slightly offset disappointing sales throughout November,” Baker said.
“As consumer confidence continues to build and shoppers return to the high street, this should translate into more retail spending next year. However, there are big challenges coming down the track for the sector, so retailers will be banking on a consumer-led recovery to come to fruition so they can combat a surge in costs.”
Thomas Pugh, economist at RSM UK, added: “The tick up in retail sales volumes in November suggests that the stagnation which has gripped the UK economy since the summer continued into the final months of the year.
“While the recent strong pay growth numbers may make the Bank of England uncomfortable, it means that real incomes are growing at just under 3 per cent, which suggests consumer spending should gradually rise next year. However, consumers remain extremely cautious. The very sharp drop in clothing sales in particular could suggest that consumers are cutting back on non-essential purchases.
“We still expect a rise in consumer spending next year, due to strong wage growth and a gradual decline in the saving rate, to help drive an acceleration in GDP growth. But the risks are clearly building that cautious consumers choose to save rather than spend increases in income, raising the risk of weaker growth continuing through the first half of next year.”