As businesses wait for Rishi Sunak-led government’s first Spring statement, vehement calls are being raised to restore high streets, ease running costs, boost consumer confidence and create a business-friendly environment in the country.
On March 15, Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt will deliver his first Spring Budget. Insiders claim that Hunt has warned not to expect any major tax cuts in his March Budget. In a recent public interview, he also insisted the "best tax cut right now is a cut in inflation", arguing that reducing inflation was the "only sustainable way to restore industrial harmony" in Britain.
Sunak too, though has stressed his desire to cut taxes earlier, has warned voters they would have to wait due to after effects ofCovid-19 crisis and Russia’s current invasion of Ukraine.
As cost-of-living crisis continues to squeeze shoppers’ spending, retailers are also facing a series of other problems like high energy costs, fluctuating supply on some lines, hikes of food prices, squeeze of margin and staff shortage. Not to forget the lower footfalls in general.
No wonder, retailers have been keeping their wish list ready ahead of the Hunt’s budget announcement. The intention is to boost spend, restore consumer confidence, bring back footfall and ease costs of running business.
Bring back VAT-free shopping
World famous British fashion brand Mulberry recently announced the closure of its Bond Street, London store, saying high-end retail in London was becoming “unviable” after demise of VAT-free shopping.
Known as Tax Free for Tourists, the £1.3 billion scheme was part of the short-lived mini-Budget drawn by Liz Truss’s government during its turbulent 49 days in Downing Street.
When Hunt took over the reins, he reversed the decision as part of wider measures designed to soothe fears on international financial markets about the UK’s economy. He is due to outline his next set of tax in March and is rumored to bring back return of the rebate.
The move does not much affect grocery retail directly but it does impact overall footfall and general sentiment in high streets.
BIRA CEO Andrew Goodacre
BIRA CEO Andrew Goodacre calls the decision to remove the VAT exemption for visitors as “completely flawed”.
“I think we are no longer competitive as a tourist destination compared to others places in Europe. Visitors know they can buy the same product, possibly in Paris or Milan or anywhere else in Europeway cheaper,” Goodacre tells Asian Trader.
British Retail Consortium (BRC) is also calling to reconsider VAT exemptions.
Helen Dickinson OBE, chief executive of BRC, states that offering tax-free shopping for tourists would help strengthen the UK’s position as a top destination for international shoppers.
“As it stands, the UK is one of the only European countries not to provide a tax-free shopping scheme to encourage tourism, which is why we’re asking the government to look again at reinstating it,” Dickinson tells Asian Trader.
Business Rates
Although business rate bills are set to drop by a fifth in April, retailers want further overhaul reform of current “broken” system.
Shops will see a 20 per cent reduction in business rates bills from April according to the government's £13.6 billion support package announced in Hunt's autumn statement.
Business rate is linked to the underlying value of a property, but they are currently based on values from April 2015. Retailers have long argued that it does not reflect how real estate values in the industry have been hammered due to the pandemic and competition from online firms.
Concerning the issues, Dickinson from BRC stated that the government took an essential step towards longer term reform of the “broken Business Rates system” by the scrapping of downwards phasing of transitional relief.
“Finally, retailers are paying only what they owe, rather than overpaying their rates bill even when the value of their property had already fallen. Yet the need for Business Rates reform is far from over, and the changes made in the budget are a far cry from the fundamental reform promised in 2019,” Dickinson tells Asian Trader.
“The ‘broken’ Business Rates system is a drag on investment, jobs, and the vibrancy of town and city centres. For example, while other business taxes like Corporation Tax and VAT rise and fall with the changes in the economy, Business Rates must be paid in full whether firms are making a profit or a loss.
Helen Dickinson, Chief Executive of the British Retail Consortium
“This makes Business Rates a final nail in the coffin of many struggling stores- shutting shops, costing jobs and preventing new openings,” she says.
Stating how businesses are “rethinking their strategy”, Goodacre from BIRA is also reminding government to recognise that high streets are in a very “fragile” position due to low consumer spending.
“There's real concern for some clear program for economic growth and retailers are concerned about their future. I think this spring statement is an opportunity to start delivering what the government is going to do about stimulating growth in the economy.”
BIRA echoed BRC’s call to state that business rates still need wholesale reform, especially given that for smaller retailers, the rate able values are set to increase by 10 per cent.
“We welcome the higher level of retail discount that will come into force in April, but we also want to see the multiplier permanently reduced for the small retailers to further offset the increase in rate able values,” Goodacre said.
The Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) wants the Small Business Rates Relief (SBRR) threshold raised to £25,000 (it is currently £15,000), while introducing a new “large business multiplier” for properties with a rateable value above £500,000. This move would not cost the government anything, as said by FSB at the beginning of February.
Wages and staff shortage
Labour shortage is a persistent problem now which impacts grocery sector at multiple levels.
To tackle the same, British Chamber of Commerce is calling on to reform the Shortage Occupation List to help firms fill urgent job vacancies from outside the UK when they cannot recruit locally.
There is also buzz that the government is considering extending the working hours limits for foreign students studying in the UK. An expansion of free childcare could also be announced to help parents get back into work.
Retail trade union Usdaw in its formal representation to HM Treasury has asked for a new deal for retail workers with an immediate £12 per hour minimum wage along with an end to one-sided flexibility, ban on zero and short hour’s contracts to provide much needed security of employment and income.
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Usdaw is also calling for a fundamental overhaul of the Universal Credit system to support the incomes of working people and reform in childcare policies.
FSB is also demanding to bring in a measure to increase employers’ Employment Allowance in line with the National Living Wage, increase tax-free childcare to £3,000 and more help for over 50s employment.
FSB Policy Chair Tina McKenzie said that there is an urgent need of a strong agenda for growth.
“Hopefully, there is a recognition in government that too many initiatives of the past have ignored the small businesses that make up such a large chunk of UK firms, and that we need to focus on small firms when making economic policy,” McKenzie said.
Overall, FSB is calling on the Chancellor to bring forward bold measures to create a budget that drives economic growth and fosters a business-friendly environment.
Energy Bill Relief
From April retailers will be at even greater disadvantage as the government’s support to businesses to cope with the jump in energy bills is set to be slashed significantly, raising energy costs for small businesses by around 80 per cent.
Whilst wholesale energy prices have fallen, the cost to businesses remain very high and the energy support for indie retailers will fall from £6,400 per annum to £400 per annum (based on government figures).
Goodacre points out that with energy companies making record profits, the windfall tax received by the government will be higher than expected, and should allow the government to do more to support businesses. This support could be in the form of grants to improve the energy efficient of the business.
“BIRA would also like to see those business who signed contracts when prices were at their highest last year, be allowed to renegotiate so they can benefit from lower wholesale prices The government should also commit to reviewing the energy support scheme again in October when costs normally increase,” he said.
Business groups including the Association of Convenience Stores (ACS), FSB, and BIRA have written to the Business Secretary, calling on him to rethink plans to slash the support provided to shops and other local businesses amid fears of widespread closures in the summer.
Strongly condemning the government over its failure to help businesses, ACS chief James Lowman has warned that without urgent intervention to allow businesses to renegotiate fairer contracts, local shops will be forced to shut down.
Photo: iStock
ACS has been demanding more support for rural areas as part of the government’s ongoing leveling up agenda, particularly as supporting investment in digital infrastructure to provide rural shops with reliable broadband and mobile coverage, and enabling rural shops to maintain a viable network of free to use cash machines.
In light of slashing subsidies, trade bodies like FSB also want government to provide “Green” vouchers to small businesses to help them invest in environment-friendly sustainable improvements in their premises, including heat pumps, better insulation and solar panels. To implement the same, FSB has proposed a “Help to Green” voucher worth £5,000 with renovations.
What’s Ahead
Overall, small local retailers are worried over the sustainability of their businesses.
As Goodacre points out, consumer habits have changed post-pandemic and footfall will never be the same again. However, small changes, like providing better accessibility for all age groups, parking spots, can go a long way in welcoming shoppers back to high streets.
“Stimulation of economy, increase in consumer confidence, investment in high streets and better support system is what retailers are seeking at the moment,” he concluded.
The last two years have been marked by a period of rapidly rising inflation, majorly driven by energy and food prices. Despite the need and expectations, it is being said that Hunt will be able to offer only modest help in the upcoming budget and no immediate major relief because of tight constraints on the public finances.
It all implies that from April 2023, businesses will be facing highest tax burden since Second World War. The picture will become clearer when Hunt will present his “make or break” budget on March 15.
UK retail sales rose less than expected in the runup to Christmas, according to official data Friday that deals a fresh blow to government hopes of growing the economy.
Separate figures revealed a temporary reprieve for prime minister Keir Starmer, however, as public borrowing fell sharply in November.
The updates follow news this week of higher inflation in Britain - an outcome that caused the Bank of England on Thursday to leave interest rates unchanged.
Retail sales by volume grew 0.2 per cent in November after a drop of 0.7 per cent in October, the Office for National Statistics said Friday.
That was less than analysts' consensus for a 0.5-percent gain.
"It is critical delayed spending materialises this Christmas to mitigate the poor start to retail's all-important festive season," noted Nicholas Found, senior consultant at Retail Economics.
"However, cautiousness lingers, slowing momentum in the economy. Households continue to adjust to higher prices (and) elevated interest rates."
He added that consumers were focused on buying "carefully timed promotions and essentials, while deferring bigger purchases".
The ONS reported that supermarkets benefited from higher food sales.
"Clothing stores sales dipped sharply once again, as retailers reported tough trading conditions," said Hannah Finselbach, senior statistician at the ONS.
Retail sales rose 0.2% in November 2024, following a fall of 0.7% in October 2024.
Growth in supermarkets and other non-food stores was partly offset by a fall in clothing retailers.
The Labour government's net borrowing meanwhile dropped to £11.2 billion last month, the lowest November figure in three years on higher tax receipts and lower debt-interest, the ONS added.
The figure had been £18.2 billion in October.
"Borrowing remains subject to upside risks... due to sticky interest rates, driven by markets repricing for fewer cuts in 2025," forecast Elliott Jordan-Doak, senior UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
Jacqui Baker, head of retail at RSM UK and chair of ICAEW’s Retail Group, commented that the later than usual Black Friday weekend meant November’s retail sales figures saw only a slight uptick as cost-conscious consumers held off to bag a bargain.
“Despite many retailers launching Black Friday offers early, November trade got off to a slow start which dragged on for most of the month. This was driven by clothing which fell to its lowest level since January 2022. The only saving grace was half-term and Halloween spending helped to slightly offset disappointing sales throughout November,” Baker said.
“As consumer confidence continues to build and shoppers return to the high street, this should translate into more retail spending next year. However, there are big challenges coming down the track for the sector, so retailers will be banking on a consumer-led recovery to come to fruition so they can combat a surge in costs.”
Thomas Pugh, economist at RSM UK, added: “The tick up in retail sales volumes in November suggests that the stagnation which has gripped the UK economy since the summer continued into the final months of the year.
“While the recent strong pay growth numbers may make the Bank of England uncomfortable, it means that real incomes are growing at just under 3 per cent, which suggests consumer spending should gradually rise next year. However, consumers remain extremely cautious. The very sharp drop in clothing sales in particular could suggest that consumers are cutting back on non-essential purchases.
“We still expect a rise in consumer spending next year, due to strong wage growth and a gradual decline in the saving rate, to help drive an acceleration in GDP growth. But the risks are clearly building that cautious consumers choose to save rather than spend increases in income, raising the risk of weaker growth continuing through the first half of next year.”
Dutch dairy collective FrieslandCampina has agreed to merge with smaller Belgian rival Milcobel, creating a leading dairy cooperative.
FrieslandCampina, whose brands include Yazoo and Chocomel, said the merger will provide the foundation for a future-oriented organisation that has dairy front and centre for member dairy farmers, employees, consumers, and customers.
The proposed merger is subject to approval by FrieslandCampina’s members’ council, Milcobel’s extraordinary meeting of shareholders, and antitrust authorities. The companies said member dairy farmers, employees, works councils and trade unions have been informed about the merger proposal.
Both companies, owned by dairy farmers for many generations, complement each other well in market positions and product portfolios. The merger offers further business development opportunities in market segments such as consumer cheese, mozzarella, white dairy products (such as milk, buttermilk, and yoghurt), and ingredients, as well as benefits in efficiency and expertise, for example in the area of sustainability.
“The combination of FrieslandCampina and Milcobel is bigger than the sum of its parts. It creates a future-oriented, combined dairy cooperative that is resilient and capable of capitalising on opportunities in the dynamic global dairy market,” said Sybren Attema, chair of the board of Zuivelcoöperatie FrieslandCampina.
“This strengthens our appeal to member dairy farmers, business partners and employees. Moreover, this step supports us in realising a leading milk price for our member dairy farmers, now and in the future.”
Betty Eeckhaut, chair of the board of Milcobel, said: “The cooperative philosophy, which is deeply rooted at both Milcobel and FrieslandCampina, is the bedrock for this proposed merger. Our goal remains to create added value for our member dairy farmers.
“Through our regional complementarity we will become the cooperative dairy partner of choice for current and new members, with a solid milk supply for a successful future. For employees, the new organisation provides great opportunities to grow in an international environment. For customers, this merger means more innovation, an expanded product portfolio and further professionalisation of our services.”
Based on the combined 2023 annual figures of FrieslandCampina and Milcobel - excluding Milcobel's Ysco business, which is in the process of being divested - the new, combined organisation has a pro forma revenue of more than €14 billion (£11.6bn) , operates in 30 countries, employs nearly 22,000 staff worldwide, and processes a total volume of approximately 10 billion kilograms of milk.
The boards of the cooperatives and executive management of the two parties have signed a framework agreement regarding the proposed merger. The companies aim to finalise a detailed merger proposal in the first half of 2025, which will then be discussed with the members of FrieslandCampina and the shareholders of Milcobel.
The UK government has pledged stronger measures to combat anti-social behaviour and shoplifting, which it acknowledges as serious crimes that disrupt communities and harm businesses.
Addressing a House of Lords debate on Monday, Home Office minister Lord Hanson detailed plans to abolish the controversial £200 shoplifting threshold and to introduce a new offence for assaults on retail workers.
“Anti-social behaviour and shop theft are not minor crimes. They cause disruption in our communities,” Lord Hanson stated.
“Shop theft in particular costs retailers across the nation millions of pounds, which is passed on to us as customers, and it is not acceptable. That is why, on shop theft, we are going to end the £200 effective immunity. For shop workers, we will protect them by introducing a new offence, because they are very often upholding the law in their shops on alcohol, tobacco and other sales.”
He also emphasised the government’s commitment to restoring visible neighbourhood policing, with 13,000 additional officers and Police Community Support Officers (PCSOs) planned, as well as piloting new “respect orders” to ban repeat offenders from town centres.
Later on Wednesday, the home secretary announced a £1 billion funding boost for police across England and Wales to restore neighbourhood policing. The money will include new funding of £100 million to kickstart the recruitment of 13,000 additional neighbourhood officers, community support officers and special constables.
The debate was initiated by Labour peer Baroness Ayesha Hazarika, who painted a vivid picture of the toll anti-social behaviour takes on workers and communities. “Many people who work in shops feel like they are living in a war zone,” she said. “Anti-social behaviour can so often be the canary down the coal mine and tell a wider story about what kind of society we are living in.”
Baroness Hazarika also urged the use of technology such as facial recognition to target hardened criminals responsible for terrorising shops and local residents.
Lord Hanson agreed, adding that the government is equipping police with the resources to better address persistent offenders, including funding initiatives like Operation Pegasus, which targets organised retail crime.
Retail trade union Usdaw has welcomed the Lords debate tackling anti-social behaviour and shoplifting.
“We very much welcome that Baroness Hazarika has raised this hugely important issue for our members. It is shocking that over two-thirds of our members working in retail are suffering abuse from customers, with far too many experiencing threats and violence,” Paddy Lillis, Usdaw general secretary, said.
“After 14 years of successive Tory governments not delivering the change we need on retail crime, we are pleased that the new Labour government announced a Crime and Policing Bill in the King’s Speech and all the measures that it contains, as set out by Lord Hanson.
“The chancellor announced in the Budget funding to tackle the organised criminals responsible for the increase in shoplifting, and the government has promised more uniformed officer patrols in shopping areas. It is our hope that these new measures will help give shop workers the respect they deserve.”
In response to the mounting pressures faced by postmasters across the UK, the Post Office has unveiled a centralised wellbeing platform aimed at simplifying access to support resources.
Post Office said the surge in shoplifting and violent incidents, documented in the 2024 ACS Crime Report, has only intensified the demand for comprehensive support.
With shoplifting on the rise year-on-year since 2021, and the Christmas trading period presenting heightened risks due to increased footfall and stock levels, the wellbeing of postmasters has become a pressing concern.
The new wellbeing platform, accessible via the Branch Hub app, provides a single point of access to a range of resources designed to meet Postmasters' immediate and ongoing needs. It is divided into three sections:
‘I Need Help Right Now’: Offers urgent support, including access to emergency services, mental health first aiders, , area and business support managers and organisations like Samaritans.
‘More Support and Guidance’: Provides practical tools such as security advice, social media abuse resources, and connections to organisations like Citizens Advice and Mind.
‘Access Community Support’: Encourages peer connections through WhatsApp and Facebook groups, as well as in-person meetings.
The initiative, a collaboration between the Post Office, the National Federation of Sub-Postmasters (NFSP), and Voice of the Postmaster, underscores a shift towards a more cooperative approach between historically independent groups, and creates a shared wellbeing network that is accessible to all postmasters, regardless of affiliation.
Mark Eldridge, postmaster experience director at Post Office, said the initiative will ensure that anyone who needs help can find it quickly and easily.
“It’s about creating a culture of care and resilience in the face of the challenges our postmasters face every day. If the initiative means helping just one postmaster, then we have done our job successfully,” Eldridge added.
Tony Fleming, postmaster at Thorne Post Office, shared how the initiative provided vital support following a traumatic armed robbery at his branch.
“It was incredibly difficult for the person faced with this violent threat, as well as the wider team. It’s a traumatic experience to go through as part of your day job and having the immediate support of the Wellbeing resource was invaluable – it really was wellbeing personified and gave me and everyone in the branch the support to get back to doing what we do best, serving our fantastic community in Thorne,” Fleming said.
Paul Patel, a Hampshire-based postmaster, echoed this sentiment, highlighting the platform’s ability to combat isolation and foster collaboration:
“It has been a difficult time for all postmasters who continue to serve their communities every day often feeling alone in their daily work life. It’s such a privilege to collaborate across the network to support Postmasters wellbeing from forming friendships to guiding for more professional support.”
Christine Donnelly of the NFSP highlighted the initiative’s accessibility and symbolic value.
“From a postmaster perspective this works on several levels. It is an easily accessible resource that offers advice and facts, but it also says by implication that we care, that participants from different areas of the business recognised a need and worked together to make it the best it could be,” Donnelly noted.
“It says you are not alone or the only one - how can you be if there is a whole site available?”
The Post Office plans to evolve the platform based on postmaster feedback, ensuring it remains relevant to emerging challenges.
Earlier this week, Post Office has announced a £20 million boost for postmasters to address their concerns that their income has not kept up with inflation over the past decade.
Both independent postmasters and Post Office’s retail partners that operate branches on its behalf will receive the top-up payment ahead of Christmas. The top-up payment will be based on both the standard fixed and variable remuneration the branch received in November.
Independent retailers have weathered one of their most challenging years in 2024, with multiple headwinds affecting the sector, according to the British Independent Retailers Association (Bira).
With pressures mounting throughout the year, independent retailers have faced an increasingly difficult trading environment marked by changing consumer behaviour and economic uncertainties.
"2024 has presented unprecedented challenges for independent retailers,” said Andrew Goodacre, CEO of Bira. “Consumer spending on non-food items has declined significantly, while persistent footfall problems and fragile consumer confidence have impacted high streets nationwide. Despite inflation coming under control, interest rates are falling slowly, affecting both business and consumer spending."
"The retail landscape has become increasingly competitive, with large chains implementing deeper and longer discount periods. The rise of ultra-fast fashion retailers like Shein and Temu has created additional pressure on margins, whilst deflation on non-food items has further squeezed profits," he added.
The sector has also grappled with retail crime, with Bira's latest survey showing 78.79 per cent of businesses reporting increased frequency or severity of theft incidents.
Research from PwC earlier this year also highlighted the scale of the challenge, with 6,945 outlets shutting – equating to 38 store closures per day, up from 36 per day in 2023. The figure outnumbered the rate of new store openings, which rose modestly to 4,661, averaging 25 openings each day.
Mr Goodacre said: "The key difficulties independent retailers are grappling with include low consumer demand, as consumer confidence remains fragile and shoppers are highly value-focused. Independent shops struggle to compete on price as large chains are able to discount more deeply and for longer periods."
Looking ahead to 2025, retailers face new challenges. He added: "Medium-sized retailers will see a significant increase in employment costs, while thousands of smaller retailers will be hit with higher business rates as relief drops from 75per cent to 40 per cent."
However, Mr Goodacre said he sees reasons for optimism and added: "We expect 2025 to bring some positive changes. Wages are set to rise faster than inflation, which should boost consumer spending. Both inflation and interest rates should continue to fall, helping to rebuild consumer confidence."
"The circular economy presents a growing opportunity for independent retailers, and with economic growth set to improve, we anticipate better trading conditions. While challenges remain, independent retailers who stay adaptable and resilient will find opportunities in the year ahead."