Higher prices for staples such as vegetable oils, wheat, cheese and sugar have pushed global costs to their highest level in 18 months, signalling more pain ahead for shoppers.
The UN Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO) food price index rose to 127.4 in October — the highest level since April 2023. The figure, published on Friday (8), was up 5.5 per cent from October last year. Prices for food commodities have risen steadily since the start of the year.
Although food costs remain well below levels reached in March 2022, consumers are already having to pay more for groceries as increases are passed on from food manufacturers to shoppers. Food price pressures across the G7 major advanced economies ticked up for the first time in two years in September, complicating rate-setters’ attempts to cut rates to support growth and jobs.
The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index spiked by 7.3 percent in October, hitting a two-year high as a result of rising quotations for palm, soy, sunflower and rapeseed oil, driven mainly by concerns about production.
The FAO Cereal Price Index increased by 0.9 percent in October, led by rising wheat and maize export prices. Global wheat prices were affected by unfavorable weather conditions in major northern hemisphere exporters as well as the re-introduction of an unofficial price floor in the Russian Federation and rising tensions in the Black Sea region.
The FAO Sugar Price Index increased by 2.6 percent amid persisting concerns over the 2024/25 production outlook in Brazil following extended dry weather conditions. Rising international crude oil prices also contributed to the increase in sugar quotations by shifting more sugarcane toward ethanol production, while the weakening of the Brazilian real against the United States dollar limited the increase.
The FAO Dairy Price Index rose by 1.9 percent in October, averaging 21.4 percent above its level the same time last year. The increase was primarily driven by higher international cheese and butter prices, while quotations for milk powders declined.
Bucking the general upward trend, the FAO Meat Price Index dropped by 0.3 percent from September, mainly due to lower pig meat prices resulting from increased slaughter rates in Western Europe amid weak domestic and international demand. World poultry prices fell slightly in October, while those of ovine meat remained stable. By contrast, bovine meat prices increased moderately, underpinned by stronger international purchases.
A vast majority of consumers still feel cash is their most widely used payment method while most consumers carry cash in case of an emergency, shows a recent survey.
According to "Why Won’t Cash Just Die?!!", a new research report from PayComplete, surveying 5,000 consumers from the UK, US, Germany, France, Italy, and Spain, 89 per cent of consumers surveyed consider the ability to pay in cash as important for their customer satisfaction. 90 per cent of consumers surveyed said that cash is their most widely used payment method
One of the strongest drivers for cash use is its close association with the community, from protecting favourite shops to education and social inclusivity, states the survey report. Cash continues to be a beacon of reliability in difficult situations with over two-thirds (69 per cent) of consumers surveyed carrying cash in case of an emergency.
More than three-quarters of consumers (81 per cent) say that they use cash to minimise data sharing while over a third (34 per cent) of those surveyed prefer using cash to manage their spending.
The report warns that organisations that tell customers that they can’t pay with cash are igniting negative emotions. These feelings range from disappointment (31 per cent) to frustration (21 per cent), and even anger (17 per cent).
One in three (33 per cent) cash users fall within the 25-44 age range, and nearly two-thirds (60 per cent) belong to the mid-range income brackets, earning between £19,000 and £63,999.
“All the noise around the death of cash is just that. While digital and electronic payment providers have been quick to kill and downplay the importance of cash in consumers’ lives, our research shows it continues to hold a significant place in the payment ecosystem, customer satisfaction, and in maintaining and strengthening communities,” said Simon James, CEO of PayComplete.
“Over half (59%) of cash users believe that the ability to pay with physical money supports the inclusivity of all members of the community. While a similar number (52%) agree that cash will continue to have a prominent place in society for the foreseeable future. Businesses that turn their back on cash risk being seen as undermining local communities.
“Saving businesses from card processing fees is not the only reason people stick with cash in the community. Our research shows that education and social inclusion are equally strong motivators. In fact, nearly two-thirds (62 per cent) of consumers believe using physical cash helps children develop financial management skills and track their spending.
“Teaching the next generation about money is critically important. Yet, research from the Money and Pensions Service has found that less than half of children aged 7-17 in the UK have received a meaningful financial education. Using cash as a tool to help educate children can help offset this trend.”
There exists a huge gap between public's intention and actions when it comes to health and wellness with cost being a major deciding factor, shows a recent report, also highlighting a shift in how people structure their meals and attitudes towards global mental and physical health.
Kantar's Who Cares Who Does: Decoding Wellness further adds thatwhile 62 per cent see processed food as harmful, only 37 per cent actively avoid it. It’s a similar pattern for sugary drinks: 73 per cent see them as harmful, but fewer than half (48 per cent) are cutting back on products high in sugar.
Savoury snacks and carbonated soft drinks have the highest product penetration of the FMCG product categories at 90 per cent and 77 per cent respectively.
Cost holds a strong influence over people’s ability to choose healthy products. More than half of people (52 per cent) cite the high cost of healthier options as the main barrier to buying them. Meanwhile, a lack of trust and confusion about what constitutes truly healthy packaged foods also prevents consumers from being able to make healthy choices.
It was seen earlier in Kantar Worldpanel’s Demand Moments that howsnacking has become a full-blown behaviour in the UK, Germany and other markets. In the UK, snacks now make up 28 per cent of eating occasions, surpassing breakfast at 27 per cent, showing a shift in how people structure their meals.
Natalie Babbage, Global Solutions Director, at Kantar Worldpanel at Kantar, said, “People want to do better but are caught in cycles of stress, unhealthy eating habits, and barriers to effective weight management, which are often exacerbated by high costs.
"Brands have a critical opportunity to make a difference. By tackling affordability, convenience, transparency, and emotional needs, they can bridge the gap between how people want to live and their reality, helping improve health outcomes for people around the world.”
The report also shows that while78 per cent of people believe they are responsible for their health, less than half proactively engage with their physical health, and even fewer invest effort into their mental wellbeing.
The Institute for Grocery Distribution (IGD) has released the report, "A Net Zero Transition Plan for the UK Food System", providing a framework for the food sector to achieve 70 per cent emissions reductions in agriculture and to fully decarbonize heat, electricity and transport.
Commissioned by IGD and developed by consultants EY and WRAP, the first of its kind report provides an independent, evidence-based view for how the UK food system in its entirety, can reduce Greenhouse Gas emissions in line with a 1.5degree SBTi outcome and to meet the UK’s legally binding national target.
Currently, food and drink is the UK’s largest manufacturing industry – it provides 4.4 million jobs, contributes over £100bn to GDP, and generates 30 per cent of all UK territorial emissions much of this relating to agriculture with significant contributions from energy and logistics. The report aims to inform and support further pre-competitive collaboration across the various sectors of the food industry, under the common goal of emissions reduction. It outlines 19 steps that the Government can take to enable this, with a particular focus on strengthening policy for agriculture and energy.
In the short term, the report proposes immediate action by industry and government to support the domestic farming transition and on a set of standards for food imports. Together with action on energy efficiency and low-carbon power generation and significant reductions in food waste, the report shows that 2030 emissions reductions targets are very challenging but achievable.
Kirsty Saddler, Director of Health & Sustainability Programmes, IGD, said: “This UK Food System Transition Plan is a first of its kind approach at unifying wide-ranging perspectives within the food industry around the aim of accelerating progress in emissions reduction. The UK food industry is deeply connected to the climate crisis both as a contributor of emissions but also as an industry that is dependent upon a stable and healthy ecosystem to grow and provide food for the country. All organisations across the system can make better progress, faster, if we work together and with government.”
The framework offered reviews pathways on both the supply side and the demand side, showing the contribution that can be made by the population through diet change, using the NHS Eatwell Guide as a basis. This report also notes the critical role reductions in food waste, particularly by households, can make. Halving food waste in the UK by 2030, in line with UN Sustainable Development Goal 12.3 and the Courtauld Commitment 2030, is estimated to remove about 5 per cent of all food-related emissions.
Catherine David, Director of Behaviour Change and Business Programmes at WRAP, said:“I'm delighted that IGD, with WRAP's support, is launching this report today, which marks a significant step forward towards action on greenhouse gas emissions in the food and drink sector. At WRAP, we are passionate about evidence driven collaborative action which is brought together by our Courtauld Commitment 2030. We hope this report, uniting the whole of UK food and drink, will help catalyse a fresh and focused phase of collaborative action on the urgent issues that industry must tackle.”
Shoppers' spending on FMCG saw a rise in the third quarter of this year, shows a latest industry data, revealing a narrowing gap between own-label and branded products as the growth rates indicate shoppers are now starting to treat themselves to small indulgences again.
According to latest NIQ Retail Spend Barometer, value growth in the FMCG sector was driven by an uptick in the personal care (+10.7 per cent), homecare (+8.7 per cent), fresh food (+5.8 per cent), and snacking (+5.1 per cent) categories. Beverages returned to growth (+2.1 per cent), from a decline of 0.9 per cent in Q2. Meanwhile, the biggest declines were experienced in tobacco (-7.9 per cent) and paper products (-4.1 per cent).
NIQ attributed the rebound largely to the sales boost from the Euros and Olympics, which took place in July and August, and slightly sunnier weather compared to last year. Despite improved consumer confidence in Q2, this stalled in Q3 as economic and financial uncertainty continued to impact consumers. However, within FMCG, lower inflation is now leading to better volume growth.
The NIQ data also reveals a narrowing gap between own-label and branded products as the growth rates indicate shoppers are now starting to treat themselves to small indulgences again. In Q1 of this year, FMCG branded unit growth was recorded at 0.7 per cent compared to 3.1 per cent for own-label. However, in Q3 branded unit growth sits at 1.1 per cent versus 1.7 per cent for own-label.
Ben Morrison, Retail Services Director UK & IRE at NIQ, said: “The first eight months of the year so far have been more optimistic compared to 2023, but shoppers remain cautious. We are seeing more considered purchasing, particularly within T&D as consumers opt to replace products when they must rather than upgrade a working one.
"This also plays to the desire for more sustainable living – beyond just energy efficiency – which is adding to the decision process. When it comes to upgrades, credit schemes offer immediate gratification and are used more often by those on higher incomes to enable upgrades for non-essential big-ticket items”.
“As for FMCG, retailers will be pleased to see a slight increase in the rate of growth in the sector in Q3, largely boosted by the big sporting events over the summer. With the gap closing between branded and own-label items, shoppers are open to spending on certain items.
"However, building financial resilience remains a challenge for consumers. According to GfK’s Consumer Confidence Barometer, a quarter of consumers reported they were ‘just managing’ at the end of Q3 and 1 in 3 said they were unlikely to be able to save in the year ahead. Shoppers, therefore, remain cautious, so as we enter the golden quarter, promotions across retailers are going to be key in persuading savvy shoppers to trade up.”
Halloween combined with Diwali celebrations and early fireworks events proved a blessing for retailers as the two boosted footfall across all UK destinations for the second consecutive week.
MRI Software data shows that footfall rose by +6.9 per cent last week compared to the week before in all UK retail destinations; high streets drove much of this rise with an +8 per cent rise in footfall recorded, followed closely by shopping centres (+7.9 per cent). Retail parks also witnessed a week on week rise however this was much more modest at +3.3 per cent.
A strong start to the week paved the way for a fruitful half-term for retailers as footfall rose by +16.1 per cent in all UK retail destinations on Sunday, compared to the week prior. Shopping centres and high streets averaged a rise of +12 per cent and +11.7 per cent, respectively, from Sunday to Friday. Retail parks, however, saw a much more modest rise of +4.8 per cent for the same time period.
According to Jenni Matthews, marketing and insights director at MRI Software, a "spooktacular" half-term week saw a week-on-week boost in footfall across all UK retail destinations for the second consecutive week, highlighting the impact of the school holidays and events on driving visitors and shoppers to retail destinations.
However, for context, it’s worth noting that in the same week last year, footfall had declined during the same period as schools had already reopened nationwide.
Matthews said, “From Sunday to Friday, high streets saw the strongest daily gains compared to the week before with shopping centres following a similar trend. Retail parks also witnessed daily week on week rises however these were much more modest and may be due to half-term events taking place in shopping centres and high streets driving much of the footfall to these destinations.
“All town types experienced substantial rises in footfall both year on year and compared to last week which is an indicator of the shift in the school half-term holidays. Coastal towns experienced the greatest rise suggesting many continued to getaway for what may be the final time this year before Christmas. Despite forecasted tube strikes for the end of the week, which were called off at the eleventh hour, footfall in the capital also remained strong particularly in office dense areas."
Regionally, Wales and Greater London saw strong performance week on week however the East of England saw double digit growth compared to 2023. The trends seen in Wales and Eastern parts of England may also align with the strong trends seen in coastal towns.
Coastal towns were the clear winners last week as footfall rose by +10.5 per cent from the week before but by almost a fifth compared to 2023 highlighting the impact of the school holidays on footfall in towns and cities across the UK. Historic and market towns also witnessed significant year on year rises of +13.1 per cent and +10.5 per cent, respectively. Footfall in Central London remained +7.4 per cent higher week on week and +18.6 per cent higher compared to last year despite the threat of tube strikes which were called off at the last minute.