Skip to content
Search
AI Powered
Latest Stories

Global rice supplies at risk as harsh weather hits top exporters

Global rice supplies at risk as harsh weather hits top exporters

Adverse weather across top rice suppliers in Asia, including the biggest exporter India, is threatening to reduce the output of the world's most important food staple and stoke food inflation that is already near record highs.

Rice has bucked the trend of rising food prices amid bumper crops and large inventories at exporters over the past two years, even as COVID-19, supply disruptions and more recently the Russia-Ukraine conflict made other grains costlier.


But inclement weather in exporting countries in Asia, which accounts for about 90 per cent of the world's rice output, is likely to change the price trajectory, traders and analysts said.

"There is an upside potential for rice prices with the possibility of production downgrades in key exporting countries," said Phin Ziebell, agribusiness economist at National Australia Bank.

"An increase in rice prices would add to already major challenges for food affordability in parts of the developing world," Ziebell told Reuters.

Patchy rains in India's grain belt, a heatwave in China, floods in Bangladesh and quality downgrades in Vietnam could curb yields in four of the world's top five rice producers, farmers, traders and analysts told Reuters.

"Rice has remained accessible even as overall food prices reached record levels earlier this year," said UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation economist, Shirley Mustafa.

"We are now witnessing weather-related setbacks in some key rice producing countries, including India, China and Bangladesh, which could result in lower output if conditions don't improve in the next few weeks," Mustafa added.

'Production drop is certain'

India's top rice producing states of Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh have recorded a monsoon rainfall deficit of as much as 45 per cent so far this season, data from the state-run weather department shows.

That has in part led to a 13 per cent drop in rice planting this year, which could result in production falling by 10 million tonnes or around 8 per cent from last year, said BV Krishna Rao, president of the All India Rice Exporters Association.

The area under rice cultivation is down also because some farmers shifted to pulses and oilseeds, Rao said.

India's summer-sown rice accounts for more than 85 per cent of its annual production, which jumped to a record 129.66 million tonnes in the crop year to June 2022.

"A production drop is certain, but the big question is how the government will react," a Mumbai-based dealer with a global trading firm said.

Milled and paddy rice stocks in India as of July 1 totalled 55 million tonnes, versus the target of 13.54 million tonnes.

That has kept rice prices down in the past year together with India's record 21.5 million tonnes shipment in 2021, which was more than the total shipped by the world's next four biggest exporters - Thailand, Vietnam, Pakistan and the United States.

"But the government is hypersensitive about prices. A small rise could prompt it to impose export curbs," the trader said.

In Vietnam, rains during harvest have damaged grain quality.

"Never before have I seen it rain that much during harvest. It's just abnormal," said Tran Cong Dang, a 50-year-old farmer based in the Mekong Delta province of Bac Lieu.

"In just ten days, the total measured rain is somewhat equal to the whole of previous month," said Dang, who estimated a 70 per cent output loss on his 2-hectare paddy field due to floods.

Imports, prices

China, the world's biggest rice consumer and importer, has suffered yield losses from extreme heat in grain growing areas and is expected to lift imports to a record 6 million tonnes in 2022-23, according to the US Department of Agriculture.

China imported 5.9 million tonnes a year ago.

The world's third-biggest consumer, Bangladesh, is also expected to import more rice following flood-damage in its main producing regions, traders said.

The full extent of shortfalls in countries other than India has yet to be estimated by analysts or government agencies that often only publish output data later in the year.

But the impact of unfriendly crop weather can already be seen in the slight rise in export prices from India and Thailand this week.

"Rice prices are already close to the bottom and we see the market rising from current levels," said a Singapore-based trader at one of the world's biggest rice merchants.

"The demand is picking up with buyers such as the Philippines and others in Africa looking to book cargoes."

More for you

Parfetts app 2025 interface with barcode scanner for retailers
Parfetts

Parfetts unveils major update to its app to boost retailers

Parfetts has unveiled a major update to its app to enable retailers to purchase more efficiently and benefit from improved management information.

The update brings a completely refreshed look and feel, ensuring the app remains a cutting-edge tool for retailers.

The new features include an enhanced accounts section to give retailers greater control over spending and transactions. It now includes the Parfetts card, a dynamic spend target infographic, and a personalised spending chart, all aimed at helping users manage their budgets more effectively.

Additionally, retailers can create shopping lists, review previously ordered items for a seamless reordering experience, and easily make online payments.

Melanie Clayton, digital marketing manager at Parfetts, said, “The app provides an elevated level of functionality that enables retailers to work more efficiently and make informed purchasing decisions.

Keep ReadingShow less
Elfbar 2025 UK vapers survey showing 35% may switch to smoking
Single-use disposable vapes are displayed for sale on October 27, 2024 in London, England
Alishia Abodunde/Getty Images

Vape restrictions could drive two million to illegal vapes or smoking, study warns

Around 2 million UK vapers (35%) say they would either buy illicit single-use vapes, return to smoking, or increase tobacco use if the government places restrictions on vape flavours, display and packaging – on top of the already confirmed single-use vape ban, set to take effect from 1 June, according to new research from leading vape brand Elfbar.

Among single-use vape users, this figure rises to 50 per cent.

Keep ReadingShow less
Tobacco and Vapes Bill passed the House of Commons

Store sign in London, England

Photo: iStock

Commons clears Tobacco and Vapes Bill

The House of Commons passed the Tobacco and Vapes Bill on Wednesday after MPs voted 366 to 41 to approve it at third reading.

The Bill, which will now proceed to the House of Lords, proposes to increase the legal age for tobacco sales by one year every year, starting in 2027, ensuring that individuals born on or after January 1, 2009, will never legally be able to buy tobacco.

Keep ReadingShow less
Nick’s experience will drive growth for our Manchester depot and Northwest customers

Nick Edwards

New manager for Hancocks in Manchester

Confectionery wholesaler Hancocks has a new manager at its Manchester store.

Nick Edwards has taken over at the helm of the store in Gorton, overseeingten staff and working closely with existing and new customers.

Keep ReadingShow less
Rachel Reeves delivers Spring Statement 2025 as retail costs rise with no relief
Photo by Ian Forsyth/Getty Images

Spring Statement fails to address independent retailers' concern

Costs are set to continue rising amid a difficult economic outlook following the Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ Spring Statement, which brought no significant change to major tax plans announced in the October budget despite urgent calls for support.

The Spring Statement released today (26) made no specific provisions for the independent retail sector, which is facing unprecedented challenges including rising business rates, an increase in employer national insurance contributions to 15 per cent above £5,000 per annum and an above-inflation increase in the minimum wage to £12.21.

Keep ReadingShow less