Ahead of the Budget next Wednesday (30), ACS has modelled the potential impact on the sector of some of the policy changes that have been widely discussed by the media and government MPs.
While the Government has committed to not raising the headline rates of income tax, VAT, or national insurance on ‘working people’, there are concerns that the rates of employer National Insurance Contributions could be increased, as well as changes to the way that pension contributions are taxed. There is also concern over the cost of business rates next year and the removal of the 75% retail and hospitality relief.
National Living Wage: The current projection for the rate of the National Living Wage in April 2025 is £12.10 per hour, a 5.8% increase on the current rate. This would take the convenience sector wage bill from £7.2bn to over £7.6bn.
Employers’ National Insurance Contributions: The biggest determinant of the cost of Employer NICs to the sector is the rate of the National Living Wage. At a rate of £12.10 per hour and with no other changes, Employer NICs would increase in 2025 from £312m to £364m. If there were to be a one percentage point increase in the rate of Employer NICs (from 13.8% to 14.8%), the cost would increase to over £404m.
Pension Contributions: In the convenience sector, 74% of colleagues are enrolled into a workplace pension. The total cost of pension contributions for the convenience sector is set to rise from £101m currently to £110m in 2025. If employers were required to pay national insurance contributions on their pension contributions, this would cost an additional £15m.
Business Rates: In 2024/25, the business rates bill for the convenience sector is set to be around £245m (up from £199m last year), with retailers currently benefitting from 75% retail and hospitality reliefs (up to a maximum of £110,000 for large companies). If this discount were to be removed, the sector’s rates bill would increase to around £300m.
Looking at the cost increases that retailers are already facing in changes to NLW rates and business rates valuations/multipliers, bills are set to increase by £524m next year. If the changes in policy above were to be announced in the Budget, this would rise to £634m.
ACS chief executive James Lowman said: “The Government has spoken of promoting investment and growth. Each of these measures, that have been widely trailed in the run up to the budget, would inhibit this ambition and mitigate against investment and growth in the convenience sector. The cumulative impact of more than one of these measures could be extremely serious, threatening the viability of the only businesses that remain to provide a lifeline in countless villages and housing estates across the country.
“Our sector is at the sharp end of the fight against retail crime, faces pressure on operating margins, and is set to be impacted by a host of new regulations. Local shops owners are facing what could be another half a billion pounds of new costs as a result of the budget, and just as the Chancellor has to make tough decisions, so these business owners will be choosing between some unpalatable options as a result; cutting investment, cutting employment or cutting back on the services they provide. The Chancellor must share the burden of taxes and new costs fairly, and recognise the vital role that local shops play in more communities than any other physical business, right across the country.”
In its submission to the Treasury ahead of the Budget, ACS made the following recommendations to support local shops:
Increase the employer NICs threshold to £185 per week and uprate it each year
Maintain small business rate relief and the 75% retail and hospitality relief
Introduce an alternative rating methodology for online distribution warehouses
Ring fence revenues from the upcoming vaping products levy to fund local enforcement
A Rossendale shop has had a licence bid rejected after repeatedly selling vapes to children and having illegal products on its premises.
Management at the Ibra Superstore at 34 Burnley Road, Bacup, have shown ‘no regard’ for children’s protection and safety, and have insufficient controls for licensing, Rossendale councillors have ruled.
Ibrahim Mohammad, director of the Ibra Superstore, had recently applied to Rossendale Council for a new premises licence. But the borough’s licensing sub-committee rejected his bid after a meeting which heard allegations from the police and trading standards officers.
The Burnley Road shop has been subject to various licensing changes and concerns in recent years. In the past, it was called Bacup Wines.
Ibrahim Mohammad, the applicant, attended the Rossendale licensing sub-committe meeting with his father,Amin Mohammad. Also there was PC Mick Jones, of Lancashire Constabulary, and Jason Middleton of Lancashire Trading Standards. Councillor Bob Bauld attended as an observer.
Mr Mohammad wanted a premises license for alcohol sales and opening hours from 8am to 11pm, seven days a week. He already had a personal licence. He said the Bacup shop would install a CCTV system, keep an incident log and a refusals record, check customers’ ages, display information about staff and give them regular training.
Trading standards officer Jason Middleton said Ibra Superstore Ltd was incorporated as a company in April 2023. Since then, trading standards had received 11 complaints about under-age sales and carried out visits.
Breaches included non-compliant vapes being found which broke a 2ml limit on the quantity of nicotine-containing liquid, no age checks and no information on display.
During one visit, Amin Mohammad tried to leave with a bag containing 10 illegal vapes. In test purchases by trading standards, an ‘Elf Bar’ vape was sold to a 14-year-old by Amin Mohammad and an illegal Hayati Pro Max vape to a 13-year-old by Ibrahim Mohammad. The shop claimed a phone call distracted staff during the 13-year-old’s purchase and illegal vapes came from ‘a man in car’.
Councillors heard different speakers, looked at written reports and also some video footage from the applicant. But they rejected the premises licence bid.
Giving their reasons, they stated: “There was a repeated history and pattern of behaviour regarding under-age sales of age-restricted items, such as tobacco products and vapes to children. You must not sell vapes to anyone under the age of 18. This is a criminal offence which the council takes very seriously.
“It is clear you breached the law by failing a test purchase operation in which you sold an illegal vape to an under-age child. The sub-committee feels that you have no regard to the protection and safety of children.
“The sub-committee feels that there is insufficient management control at the premises. There is no credible system to prevent under-age sales of age-restricted products and no measures in place to avoid harm to children and to prevent crime and disorder
“Therefore, given the number of incidents, the circumstances surrounding the incidents and the fact that the matter involves safeguarding issues relating to young, vulnerable minors, we consider that the seriousness of the incidents and the crimes committed against young children undermines the licensing objectives to prevent crime and disorder, and protect children from harm.”
The shop has the right of appeal to a magistrates court within 21 days of the date of the notice.
SPAR North of England retailer Dara Singh Randhawa’s family store has been awarded £100,000 of free stock after hitting all his targets since moving to the symbol.
Dara and his family, who have their SPAR store in Patrington in the East Riding of Yorkshire, joined SPAR through its association with James Hall & Co. Ltd in August 2023 having taken the decision to maximise the store’s potential.
It is a decision they have not looked back on, with sales increasing by up to 25% and margins also showing significant uplift in the last 12 months.
Key to the store’s improved performance is the complete overhaul of products available in-store, particularly the fresh food range, to better support people who live in Patrington and the surrounding area.
A new store layout and refrigeration, better Food To Go and meal deal options, a coffee machine, and a Calippo slush machine were also installed during a major refurbishment prior to launch.
Dara said: “Our move to SPAR has been excellent. We have seen fantastic sales uplift and the support from the team at James Hall & Co. Ltd has been brilliant. The £100,000 of free stock is the cherry on the cake.
“We have been very impressed with the Price Locked promotions, in particular. These give customers confidence to do bigger shops with us as they see value on our shelves and the products at the same prices for longer.
“At times over the summer when tourists and visitors to the area add trade, we have seen sales £6,000 a week higher than our average. This is against a backdrop of the popular caravan park in the village being closed almost all year.
“We are really pleased with the position we are in, and we will be looking to achieve more in 2025.”
Peter Dodding, Sales Director at James Hall & Co. Ltd and Chairman of the SPAR Northern Guild, said: “Congratulations to Dara and the Randhawa family on hitting their targets and earning £100,000 of free stock.
“We recognise switching brand is a big decision for a retailer which is why this isn’t a gimmick, and we offer this to all retailers who join the SPAR family with James Hall & Co. Ltd.
“As well as our £100,000 incentive, we also offer retailers the chance to achieve up to an additional £5,000 of free stock if they successfully refer a friend.
“These opportunities provide additional motivation to retailers alongside the comprehensive benefits that joining the SPAR brand brings with it.”
James Hall & Co. Ltd is a fifth-generation family business which serves a network of independent SPAR retailers and company-owned SPAR stores across Northern England six days a week from its base at Bowland View in Preston.
The government has on Wednesday announced its acceptance of the Low Pay Commission’s (LPC) recommendations on the rates of the National Minimum Wage (NMW), including the National Living Wage (NLW).
The rates which will apply from 1 April 2025 are as follows:
NMW Rate
Increase (£)
Percentage increase
National Living Wage (21 and over)
£12.21
£0.77
6.7
18-20 Year Old Rate
£10.00
£1.40
16.3
16-17 Year Old Rate
£7.55
£1.15
18.0
Apprentice Rate
£7.55
£1.15
18.0
Accommodation Offset
£10.66
£0.67
6.7
The recommended NLW rate is expected to equal two-thirds of median earnings and to have the highest real value in the history of the UK’s minimum wage. The increase in the 18-20 Year Old Rate narrows the gap between that and the NLW, in anticipation of the adult rate being extended to 18 year olds in future years.
“The government have been clear about their ambitions for the National Minimum Wage and its importance in supporting workers’ living standards. At the same time, employers have had to deal with the adult rate rising over 20 per cent in two years, and the challenges that has created alongside other pressures to their cost base,” Baroness Philippa Stroud, chair of the LPC, said.
“It is our job to balance these considerations, ensuring the NLW provides a fair wage for the lowest-paid workers while taking account of economic factors. These rates secure a real-terms pay increase for the lowest-paid workers. Young workers will see substantial increases in their pay floor, making up some of the ground lost against the adult rate over time.”
Stroud admitted that the data show some signs of employers finding it harder to adapt to minimum wage increases.
“The tightening of the labour market since the pandemic has unwound, but the overall picture is similar to 2019. The economy is expected to grow over the next year, although productivity growth remains subdued,” she noted.
Business secretary Jonathan Reynolds said:
Good work and fair wages are in the interest of British business as much as British workers. This government is changing people’s lives for the better because we know that investing in the workforce leads to better productivity, better resilience and ultimately a stronger economy primed for growth.
The recommended increase in the 16-17 Year Old Rate restores that rate to its original value relative to the adult minimum wage. In line with previous recommendations, the Apprentice Rate will remain equal to the 16-17 Year Old Rate.
October saw shop prices fall marginally further into deflation for the third consecutive month with food inflation eased, particularly for meat, fish and tea along with chocolate and sweets as retailers treated customers to spooky season deals, shows industry data released today (29).
According to British Retail Consortium (BRC), shop price deflation was at 0.8 per cent in October, down from deflation of 0.6 per cent in the previous month. This is below the 3-month average rate of -0.6 per cent. Shop price annual growth was at its lowest rate since August 2021.
Food inflation slowed to 1.9 per cent in October, down from 2.3% in September. This is above the 3-month average rate of 2.1 per cent . The annual rate continues to ease in this category and inflation remained at its lowest rate since November 2021.
Fresh Food inflation decelerated in October, to 1.0 per cent , down from 1.5 per cent in September. This is below the 3-month average rate of 1.2 per cent . Inflation was its lowest since October 2021.
Ambient Food inflation decelerated to 3.1 per cent in October, down from 3.3 per cent in September. This is below the 3-month average rate of 3.3 per cent and remained at its lowest since March 2022.
Helen Dickinson OBE, Chief Executive of the BRC, said, “October saw shop prices fall marginally further into deflation for the third consecutive month. Food inflation eased, particularly for meat, fish and tea as well as chocolate and sweets as retailers treated customers to spooky season deals. In non-food, discounting meant prices fell for electricals such as mobile phones, and DIY as retailers capitalised on the recent pick-up in the housing market.
“With fashion sales finally turning a corner this Autumn, prices edged up slightly for the first time since January as retailers started to unwind the heavy discounting seen over the past year.”
“Households will welcome the continued easing of price inflation, but this downward trajectory is vulnerable to ongoing geopolitical tensions, the impact of climate change on food supplies, and costs from planned and trailed Government regulation. Retail is already paying more than its fair share of taxes compared to other industries.
“The Chancellor using tomorrow’s Budget to introduce a Retail Rates Corrector, a 20 per cent downwards adjustment, to the business rates bills of all retail properties will allow retailers to continue to offer the best possible prices to customers while also opening shops, protecting jobs and unlocking investment.”
Mike Watkins, Head of Retailer and Business Insight, NielsenIQ, said, “Inflation in the food supply chain continues to ease and this helped slow the upward pressure of shop price inflation in October, however other cost pressures remain.
“Consumers remain uncertain about when and where to spend and with Christmas promotions now kicking in, competition for discretionary spend will intensify in both food and non-food retailing.”
Independent retailers are demanding tougher police action, more bobbies on the beat and harsher punishments as shoplifting levels reach an all-time high, a new survey reveals.
A whopping ninety-one per cent of respondents to a survey conducted by the Federation of Independent Retailers (the Fed) called for more police patrols on streets, while a similar number - 90 per cent - said that shoplifters should be handed harsher sentences.
Seven out of 10 respondents (72 per cent) said their stores had experienced shoplifting, break ins and damage to property, while they and their staff had been physically or verbally threatened.
Just under half of respondents (47 per cent) said they and their employees had been threatened or had suffered abuse and violence when asking for proof of age ahead of selling an age-restricted product.
Forty-four per cent reported that they and their staff had faced abuse or violence because they had refused to make a proxy sale – selling an age restricted product to a customer buying for a minor.
The results of the Fed’s survey came as new figures from the Office of National Statistics revealed that shoplifting was at a record high, with almost half a million offences recorded last year.
According to the ONS, 469,788 offences were logged by forces in the year to June 2024 – a 29 per cent increase on the previous 12 months.
The ONS added that this figure was the highest since records began – in March 2003.
“Inadequate responses from the police and a slap on the wrist for offenders means that shoplifting is soaring, and offenders are becoming more aggressive and brazen,” said Fed National President Mo Razzaq.
“From the responses we received, it is clear that real action is needed by police, by courts and by the government to stem the overwhelming tide of crime against retailers and their staff. Everyone deserves to feel safe at work and for their businesses to be protected against criminals.
“Fed members are also sending a clear message that one of the catalysts for verbal and physical abuse in stores is asking for proof of age before selling an age restricted product. If the government presses ahead with its plans to phase out smoking and vaping through a progressive ban to gradually end the sale of tobacco products across the country, independent retailers will be subject to even greater levels of violence, abuse and theft.”
Calling for action from the government and not just words, Mr Razzaq continued: “Without effective deterrent, criminals and opportunistic members of the public will continue to commit crimes.”
According to Ministry of Justice statistics, during the year to March 2024, 431 fines were handed out for retail theft under £100, while Home Office statistics for the same period show that 2,252 cautions were accepted for shoplifting.