Grocery sales continue to fall as rising prices influence shopper behaviour

Supermarket sales fell by 3.7 per cent over the 12 weeks to 20 February, latest figures from Kantar has shown, continuing the decline in the previous month when sales fell by 3.8 per cent over the 12 weeks to 23 January.

However, sales remain 8.4 per cent higher than the same period before the pandemic in 2020. The market researcher noted that annual decline reflects last year’s winter lockdown when the public was eating more meals and snacks at home.

The fall in spending comes despite a new high in grocery prices as inflation stands at 4.3 per cent in February.

Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar, said: “Apart from the start of the pandemic, when we saw grocers cut promotional deals to maintain availability, this is the fastest rate of inflation we’ve recorded since September 2013. Added to this, ongoing supply chain pressures and the potential impact of the conflict in Ukraine are set to continue pushing up prices paid by consumers.”

Households spent on average £26.07 less at supermarkets in February and own label sales did better than brands for the first time in three months, McKevitt noted.

“It’s important to flag that the drop in monthly spending isn’t all down to savvy budgeting. With the formal end to Covid restrictions in England, more of us are now eating on the go, buying sandwiches, salads and snacks on our lunch breaks, and enjoying meals out with friends and family. That means we’re buying less food and drink to have at home,” he said.

As in last month, independent stores suffered the worst decline year on year, with 14.4 per cent fall in sales in the 12-week period, reflecting the tough comparison against the high demand of the lockdowns at the start of 2021

When compared to the same period in 2020, before the pandemic struck, spending remains 4.2 per cent higher at independent stores. Last month the respective figures were 13.5 per cent and 4.6 per cent.

Further evidence that shoppers are moving beyond the pandemic can be seen in online sales, down by almost 20 per cent year on year over the past month.

McKevitt said: “It’s clear that some shoppers are shrugging off their pandemic habits. 835,000 fewer people bought groceries online over the past four weeks. That’s compared with the record 6.6 million buyers we saw last year. Digital sales now account for 13.3 per cent of all spending, down 2.1 percentage points from last year.”

The majority of bricks and mortar retailers saw take-home grocery sales fall this period compared with last year, though all were in growth against 2020.