Cost of living is still consumers’ number one concern, shows recent data, highlighting how shoppers are turning to scratch cooking to both save money and have a healthier diet.
According to new data released today byNielsenIQ (NIQ), total till sales grew at UK supermarkets (+5.3 per cent) in the last four weeks ending 27th January 2025, up from +3.6 per cent recorded in December.
With a better outlook on food inflation (+1.6 per cent) compared to last year (+6.4 per cent), there was good unit growth of +0.9 per cent at the Grocery Multiples. However, growth slowed after the new year.
January is typically a time of year for a healthy reset for consumers, and NIQ data shows 12 per cent of British households purchased meat-free substitutes in the last four weeks. Whilst this is a small drop from 14 per cent last year, shoppers have not cut back on healthy diets with double-digit growth in freshly prepared fruit (+16 per cent) and fresh veg accompaniments which grew by +9 per cent.
Meat, fish and poultry was the fastest growing super category (+9.1per cent) as shoppers sought to cook protein-rich meals as part of New Year diets. This was followed by pet care (+8.3 per cent) and dairy products (+6.8 per cent).
In addition, NIQ data shows that half of all UK households now say they cook from scratch every day or most days, with around 16 per cent doing so more due to the rising cost of living.
The impact of this shift in behaviour marks a spike in demand for easy hacks to speed up or elevate the dining experience, with a boost in sales for fresh gravy (+28 per cent), fresh dough and pastry (+18 per cent), fresh dips (+15 per cent) and fresh cream and custard (+14 per cent).
In terms of retailer performance, Ocado led with a sales growth of +15.6 per cent compared with the same period last year.
This was followed by Marks & Spencer (+9.7 per cent) helped by its bigger store formats motivating shoppers to add more items to their baskets as well as its dine-at-home deals. There was also continued growth at the discounters Lidl (+7.8 per cent) and Aldi (+3.8 per cent) with both retailers gaining new shoppers and more store visits.
Mike Watkins, Head of Retailer and Business Insight at NIQ said, “The lift to grocery sales in the last four weeks was helped by the timing of the New Year, with a proportion of sales coming from the new year festivities which was week ending 4th January (+10.0 per cent).
"However, after this, weekly growth in January was slightly lower. Whilst overall Total Till sales growth was higher than December, the underlying trend is closer to +3 per cent which is the average growth in the most recent three weeks.”
Watkins adds, “NIQ Homescan data shows that the cost of living is still firmly consumers’ number one concern at the start of 2025. Shoppers are looking to save money and eat healthier leading to a growing trend in scratch cooking, which is one of the key behaviours driving the strong unit growth (+2 per cent) and value growth (+6.8 per cent) in fresh food categories in the last four weeks.”
Meat and dairy products saw a rise in sales in January, while their meat-free counterparts and dairy-free products experienced less demand compared with 2024.
According to a report released by Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB), while the meat, fish and poultry (MFP) category saw volume growth of 1.4 per cent, meat-free products had their fourth consecutive year of decline.
This was mostly driven by vegetable-based products such as bean burgers, rather than meat imitation products (like Quorn), as vegetable-based products saw a -12.4 per cent decline.
This weaker performance is likely due to declining engagement with Veganuary, according to Google searches, and only a small proportion of the population (5.65 per cent) taking part in the challenge this year.
Of those who took part, 1.29 per cent are vegan all year round, 2.30 per cent completed Veganuary and 2.06 per cent did not. Of those who managed to maintain a vegan diet for the entire month, 39 per cent stated they are not going to continue with the diet beyond January, states AHDB.
Promotions played a big part in performance this January, and according to Kantar, meat-free product saw a 9.1 per cent decline in promotions year-on-year, which, along with high inflation, likely contributed to its performance.
While meat imitation products did see spend and volume growth in January, it was the only meat-free category to see increases in both, however, this isn’t expected to continue, as historically (2021–2024) there has been an average decline in volume of -22.5 per cent from January to February (Kantar 4 w/e 26 January 2025).
Cow’s dairy volumes increased by 6.1 per cent in January and saw volume increases in almost all product categories, while plant-based dairy sales increased by just 1 per cent, with volume declines in nearly all plant-based dairy categories, including plant-based cheese, spreads and butter.
Hannah McLoughlin, an AHDB analyst, said, “Our data highlights that consumer interest in meat and dairy-free products is not as strong as it was in previous years.
“The demand for meat and dairy remains resilient, with many consumers showing a preference for traditional products over plant-based options.
“This shift in consumption patterns, coupled with fluctuating promotional activity, suggests that the traditional meat and dairy sectors continue to hold their ground in the face of changing dietary trends.
“AHDB continues to promote the benefits of eating meat and dairy year-round, with our Milk Every Moment, Let’s Eat Balanced and Love Pork campaigns focusing on the great taste and health benefits of these products as part of a healthy balanced diet.”
Footfall in February remained somewhat stable, notes a recent report, showing a considerable rise observed after the post-Christmas lull with Valentine's Day emerging as the key contributor.
MRI Software’s latest retail footfall data for February revealed a minor dip of -0.3 per cent compared to February 2024 across all UK retail destinations, driven by a -1.5 per cent decline in high street activity.
This annual fall reflects historical trends for February but may have been compounded this year by a particularly severe flu season, ongoing travel disruptions, and the arrival of Storm Herminia; all of which created further obstacles in driving retail and office-based footfall.
Shopping centres and retail parks bucked the trend recording rises of +0.2 per cent and +1.9 per cent, respectively, and continues to reinforce the benefits of enclosed retail destinations.
Despite these challenges, February’s month-on-month footfall provided welcome relief.
Total footfall rose by +7.3 per cent from January as the retail sector moved past the traditional post-Christmas lull.
Key events including the February half-term holiday provided a boost for physical retail destinations, particularly shopping centres and high streets where footfall jumped by +9 per cent and +11.6 per cent, respectively, from the previous week.
Valentine's Day was also another key contributor as footfall rose by +22.3 per cent in all UK retail destinations on this day alone compared to the week before; this was led by a +27.1 per cent rise in high streets, a +15.4 per cent uplift in retail parks, and +18.9 per cent in shopping centres.
Year on year, retail park growth was particularly strong from 5pm-11pm with footfall rising by +20.4 per cent in comparison to the same time period on Valentine's Day last year.
Looking ahead, there is cautious optimism among retailers. MRI Software’s weekly Insights from the Inside survey revealed that 55 per cent of retailers saw stronger sales during February’s half-term break compared to last year.
However, the outlook for March is more reserved, with 58 per cent of retailers expecting lower sales than in 2024 likely due to the later timing of Easter, which shifts key spending into April.
As the sector prepares for the upcoming Spring Budget, attention is turning to how financial policies may further influence consumer confidence and retail spending. Potential changes in tax, public spending, and household support will be closely monitored for its impact on disposable income and retail demand in the months ahead.
A leading retailers' body has called on to introduce interim pricing remedies to reduce card fees after a recent report showed that leading credit cards have been consistently increasing their processing fees, squeezing businesses' ability to invest and grow.
British Retail Consortium (BRC) today (6) raised a demand to introduce interim pricing remedies to reduce fees which have been an unjust burden on merchants, and working towards the introduction of a price cap in the longer term.
According to a report by Payment Systems Regulator (PSR), Mastercard and Visa increased their core scheme and processing fees to acquirers by at least 25 per cent since 2017, costing businesses at least £170 million extra per year.
This increased cost of doing business in the UK impacts on UK businesses’ ability to invest and grow, and could lead to direct economic constraints, particularly for small merchant, states the report.
In addition, a lack of easy-to-understand fee information has led to costs for acquirers and merchants, including small retailers.
The report also notes that existing alternative payment methods to cards do not exert effective competitive constraints on the fees charged by Mastercard and Visa for scheme and processing services.
Cards are the most popular way for consumers to pay for goods and services in the UK. In 2023, 61 per cent of all payments in the UK were made using cards, making up almost 86 per cent of the total value of retail transactions.
Data from BRC shows that in 2023 consumer credit and debit cards accounted for 85.7 per cent of the total value of retail transactions in the UK.
In 2012, cash was the most popular method of payment. However, since then, the use of cash has declined substantially, while cards have grown and are expected to grow even more.
Mastercard and Visa are central to this; over 95 per cent of transactions using UK issued cards are made on their rails.
However, merchants have been raising concerns about the cost of accepting cards and their limited ability to understand or negotiate fees.
Chris Owen, Payments Policy Advisor at BRC, said, "This report confirms the harms arising from the lack of competition in the card schemes market, with fees being introduced without justification or sufficient explanation.
"There has been a 25% increase in scheme fees since 2017 costing businesses an extra £170 million per year. It’s now time for meaningful action. Following the PSR’s findings, it is clear it must go further than the proposed remedies in its interim report.
"This means introducing interim pricing remedies to reduce fees which have been an unjust burden on merchants, and working towards the introduction of a price cap in the longer term."
Love was in the aisle this Valentine's as Brits spend almost £1 billion on flowers, gifts and dine-at-home meals with £962m was spent across Valentine's Day on food and gifting with £5.8m spent on toiletries gift packs and £19m on fragrances.
According to new data released today by NielsenIQ (NIQ), shoppers spent £137m on fresh ready meals (+2.9 per cent), nearly £11m on champagne (+5.7 per cent), and £38m on sparkling wine. There was also increased spend (+ 4.2 per cent) on impulse/confectionery as shoppers indulged in sweet treats to celebrate.
Discounters were the fastest growing channel (+6 per cent) whilst convenience store sales were down (-0.1 per cent).
Retailers embraced the occasion, with promotional spend contributing 24 per cent of sales, supported by continued investment in price cuts and Dine-In offers. While in-stores sales benefited the most (+4.3 per cent), online sales growth remained muted at +0.7 per cent, with market share declining to 12.9 per cent from 13.3 per cent a year ago.
Shoppers took advantage of these promotions with Valentine's food (excluding drinks) seeing value growth of +5.1 per cent and units growing at +0.6 per cent driven by cakes and morning goods indicating a new and affordable way to celebrate the day.
Over the four weeks, meat, fish and poultry was the fastest growing super category (+8.5 per cent) followed by dairy (+6.4 per cent) and produce (+5.7 per cent) as fresh foods were favoured over packaged grocery (+2.4 per cent) and frozen food growth was weaker (+0.7 per cent and -0.6 per cent units).
Beer, wine and spirits remained in decline (-2 per cent and -2.8 per cent in units).
Despite a slow start to the month, NIQ data reveals that grocery multiples saw their strongest growth leading up to Valentine's Day in the week ending 15th February driven by increased shopper visits (+5.9 per cent) as 17 per cent of households looked to celebrate and make special purchases.
Mike Watkins, Head of Retailer and Business Insight at NIQ said, "Retailers capitalised on the opportunities around Valentine's Day as shoppers wanted to create a special occasion at home.
"With the pinch of the cost of living, many shoppers dined in to save money this year, with premium food options growing and themed meals and gifts very much in vogue for treating loved ones.
"There are three things to consider looking ahead. Firstly, the GfK Consumer Confidence Index for February suggested that people don't expect the economy to show any dramatic signs of improvement and with many household bills, such as energy, water and council tax, increasing over the next few weeks, shoppers will be looking carefully at their discretionary spend."
He add, "Secondly, the recent sales trends in Hospitality from CGA show some weakness. Finally, the increase in food inflation reported by BRC NIQ this week looks to be a turning point.
"The overall impact will be that many shoppers will need to seek out more discounts when shopping, in particular from supermarket loyalty schemes - maybe switching some food and drink away from out-of-home to supermarkets."
The British Independent Retailers Association (BIRA) has expressed concern over the latest figures from the BRC-NIQ Shop Price Index for February 2025, saying that while overall shop prices remain in deflation, the rise in food prices is worrying for retailers and consumers alike.
The BRC report released on Tuesday (4) shows that shop price inflation was unchanged at -0.7 per cent while non-food inflation decreased to -2.1 per cent year on year in February.
However, food inflation increased to 2.1 per cent year on year in February, fresh Food inflation increased to 1.5 per cent year on year while ambient food inflation increased to 2.8 per cent year on year in February.
Andrew Goodacre, Bira CEO said, "The retail market is showing a split with essential categories such as food showing inflation and the non-essential sectors having to reduce prices (deflation) to drive sales.
"It is well known in retail that higher inflation in essentials (food, utilities and petrol are all increasing) has a disproportionate impact on consumer confidence and significantly reduces demand for the non-essential items.
"The extra costs for employers and the 140 per cent increase in business rates from April will add to inflation and continue to damage the wider high street supported by independent retailers."
Detailing on food inflation, Helen Dickinson OBE, Chief Executive of BRC, informed that breakfast, in particular, got more expensive as butter, cheese, eggs, bread and cereals all saw price hikes.
"Climbing global coffee prices could threaten to push the morning costs higher in the coming months. In non-food, month on month prices rose as January Sales promotions ended, especially in electricals and furniture. But discounting is still widespread in fashion as retailers tried to entice customers against a backdrop of weak demand.
"Inflation will likely rise across the board as the year progresses with geopolitical tensions running high and the imminent £7bn increase in costs from the Autumn Budget and the new poorly designed packaging levy arriving on the doorsteps of retailers.
"We expect food prices to be over 4% up by the second half of the year. If Government wants to keep inflation at bay, enable retailers to focus on growth, and help households, it must mitigate the swathe of costs facing the industry. It can start by ensuring no shop ends up paying more than they already do under the new business rates proposals, and delaying the new packaging taxes."