About £100,000 of illegal cigarettes and tobacco were seized from multiple shops in an East Yorkshire town last week. This seizure joined a slew of other similar operations across the country including cigarettes and rolling tobacco worth around £28,000 being seized from East Sussex, seizure of £10,500 worth of illicit cigarettes and tobacco from Derry City and from Bolton shops over the last few days. And many more are being reported at the moment.
In fact, under Operation Cece, more than five million illegal cigarettes have been seized from local retail outlets in Wales and England during the first six months of the year as part of the operation.
In the first year of a major Trading Standards operation, 13 million cigarettes and 4,300 kilos of hand-rolling tobacco worth more than more than £7 millionhave been seized across the country. The actions involved raids on shops and homes in England and Wales, with seizures at the border of smuggled tobacco and cash and the closure of illegal factories abroad.
However, authorities are prodding at just the tip of the iceberg.
Tobacco and e-cigarette products represent the largest annual sales category for both independent retailers (34 percent) and the overall convenience market (21 percent), according to the Association of Convenience Stores.
Clearly, the illicit cigarettes and tobacco trade continue to have an extraordinarily negative impact on retailers. The issue is a constant thorn in the business, eating out both on the profit of convenience stores as well as of the government in the form of lost taxes.
According to the most recent HMRC Tax Gap data, illegal smuggling and consumption of illicit tobacco cost the government £2.3 billion in lost revenue 2019-201. In total, the government has lost close to £49 billion in revenue since 2000, that equates to £2.45 billion in lost tax every year, which could be spent on vital public services.
Startling Revelations!
As illicit tobacco and cigarettes continue to be seized from across the country, the problem seems like an endless vicious loop. While the supply here definitely does not seem to be an issue, it is shocking to see equally-high demands!
As per the findings of Tobacco Manufacturers’ Association’s annual survey unveiled recently, almost one-third of smokers in the country have brought illicit tobacco in the last 12 months.
One major challenge which emerges here is that few consumers have moral reservations about purchasing illicit products. A whopping 68 percent of survey participants said they had no issue with buying tobacco this way, says the report.
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The findings are based on the responses of 12,000 smokers taken in November and December 2021. While 71 percent of those surveyed bought tobacco in the last year that was not subject to UK tax, one in five smokers claim to only buy ‘branded’ tobacco even though it has been illegal in the UK since 2016.
As the inflation in the country reaches 30-year-high levels, the lower price of such products seem to entice smokers. Pricing seems to be the key here. Since illicit cigarettes are available at £4 and £6 as compared to legit cigarettes that are priced at £10 to £12, it is no-brainer that these sell like hot cakes.
Not only are these illegal cigarettes available at half the prices, they are known to offer better margins for retailers and store-owners.
However, over the last five years, the awareness level has increased. Today, about 32 percent of those surveyed reported illicit tobacco when they were aware of it – compared to 12 percent in 2017.
TMA’s survey’s finding further adds that 37 percent of respondents were aware that illicit tobacco is used as a front for other illegal activity such as people trafficking or modern slavery compared to 25 percent in 2020.
Lack of awareness among smokers certainly does not seem to be that huge an issue here than mere indifference on their part.
Snippet from TMA's Anti Illicit Trade Survey
Although the size of the illicit tobacco market is on the long term decline, as shown in national statistics from HMRC, the fact remains that the scale of the problem is still very huge and complex.
According to the latest KPMG report on illicit tobacco, the UK is ranked second for illicit cigarette consumption out of 30 European nations included in the study. More than 17 percent of cigarettes here were recorded as counterfeit and contraband (C&C) – that’s a staggering 5.2 billion individual cigarettes.
Scotland’s consumption of C&C soared from 9 percent of all cigarettes consumed in 2019 to 15 percent in 2020 – the highest rise recorded for any part of the UK last year.
Within the UK, northern parts are more notorious when it comes to this illegal trade. A report by KPMG has found that illegal cigarettes are a bigger problem in the north east of England than other parts of the UK.
The report released recently, which was commissioned by cigarette manufacturer Philip Morris, said that Yorkshire and the Humber are among the worst-hit regions for illicit sales.
The KPMG report also says that although cigarette consumption in the UK was down 7 percent to 30.6bn in 2020 compared to 2019, the proportion of contraband cigarettes was up. It rose 17.1 percent to 5.2bn, with £2.2bn lost tax revenue as a result.
The KPMG report says a growing proportion of counterfeit cigarettes are made in illegal factories within the European Union.
New Age Problems
Illicit tobacco products are now readily available to purchase with little effort and minimal risk – through online marketplaces, purpose-built hosted websites and social media platforms especially Facebook.
TMA’s survey findings also suggest a surge in online activity over the last two years. As per the report, social media is seeing a surge in illicit tobacco sales with 19 percent of respondents buying from social media and/or websites advertising cheap tobacco. This figure was just 4 percent before the pandemic.
Social media, the growth of e-commerce, and the proliferation of postal and small parcel delivery services are in fact revolutionising illicit trade in tobacco products. Small parcel delivery service in particular, has emerged as an issue of great concern.
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Evidence suggests that there are two distinct types of offender selling illicit tobacco products online- opportunist individual sellers with no links to organised crime and organised criminals with international contacts, access to a steady supply of illicit products, and sophisticated distribution networks.
In fact, in a few of the seizures that happened over last year, the traders were using social media to find buyers. One of the largest seizures done by Trading Standard over the past one year was the one where more than 680,000 cigarettes with a market value of up to £200,000 was found in a house at Banbury, Oxfordshire- it was advertised on Facebook.
The exploitation of the internet and delivery services to sell and transport illicit tobacco products in Europe are trends that are set to persist in the coming years. Evidently, existing responses are arguably not well suited to combat these new smuggling methods.
Wrap
JTI, Imperial Tobacco and other leading tobacco companies are known to regularly undertake test-purchasings to identify retailers that are selling illegal tobacco. The info is then passed on to law enforcement agencies and local councils after which corrective actions are taken, that include imposing fines and cancellation of trading licence.
Shops suspected of selling illegal tobacco can be subject to raids by HMRC or trading standards with sniffer dogs. Apart from potentially losing their alcohol licence or lottery terminal and loss of reputation, shops caught dealing in trading illicit tobacco can face:
A hefty fine or up to two years imprisonment for breaching Standard Packaging of Tobacco Products Regulations 2015 or Tobacco and Related Products Regulations 2016.
Up to £5,000 fine for sale of tobacco without a fiscal mark.
Up to £1,000 for sale of loose cigarettes
Up to £1,000 for failure to display the correct statutory notice
Up to £2,500 fine for selling tobacco to under 18s: Repeat offenders risk a restricted premises order, a restricted sales order or both. Breaching these can mean a fine of up to £20,000.
The maximum penalty for trade marks offences is 10 years imprisonment
Retailers here can play their part by reporting any signs of such trading immediately to the right authorities like trading standards or the Keep it Out website or local council. They can also contact HM Revenue & Customs’ Fraud Hotline on 0800788887, Trading Standards via the Citizens Advice consumer helpline on 08082231133 or the independent charity Crimestoppers anonymously on 0800555111.
Retailers should also report and red-flag social media accounts selling cigarettes or tobacco with attributes like “cheap” or fake or “duty free stock bought in error”, if they happen to come across any.
To identify the authenticity of the products, retailers are advised to look out for:
Branded, non-standardised packaging
Unfamiliar brand names
Foreign health warnings and no picture warnings
Flaws in packaging
Tobacco being offered by unexpected sales people – most likely linked to criminals
Cheaper prices – usually around half the price of legal tobacco
Assessing illicit tobacco trade is no easy task. As a clandestine activity by definition, illicit trade remains hidden until discovered. At the end of the day, the trade in illegal tobacco is underpinned by criminals who want to make money and consumers who are looking to save money by buying cheaper versions- the ones who also ironically continue to believe that the purchase and consumption of illicit tobacco is largely a victimless crime.
UK retail sales rose less than expected in the runup to Christmas, according to official data Friday that deals a fresh blow to government hopes of growing the economy.
Separate figures revealed a temporary reprieve for prime minister Keir Starmer, however, as public borrowing fell sharply in November.
The updates follow news this week of higher inflation in Britain - an outcome that caused the Bank of England on Thursday to leave interest rates unchanged.
Retail sales by volume grew 0.2 per cent in November after a drop of 0.7 per cent in October, the Office for National Statistics said Friday.
That was less than analysts' consensus for a 0.5-percent gain.
"It is critical delayed spending materialises this Christmas to mitigate the poor start to retail's all-important festive season," noted Nicholas Found, senior consultant at Retail Economics.
"However, cautiousness lingers, slowing momentum in the economy. Households continue to adjust to higher prices (and) elevated interest rates."
He added that consumers were focused on buying "carefully timed promotions and essentials, while deferring bigger purchases".
The ONS reported that supermarkets benefited from higher food sales.
"Clothing stores sales dipped sharply once again, as retailers reported tough trading conditions," said Hannah Finselbach, senior statistician at the ONS.
Retail sales rose 0.2% in November 2024, following a fall of 0.7% in October 2024.
Growth in supermarkets and other non-food stores was partly offset by a fall in clothing retailers.
The Labour government's net borrowing meanwhile dropped to £11.2 billion last month, the lowest November figure in three years on higher tax receipts and lower debt-interest, the ONS added.
The figure had been £18.2 billion in October.
"Borrowing remains subject to upside risks... due to sticky interest rates, driven by markets repricing for fewer cuts in 2025," forecast Elliott Jordan-Doak, senior UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
Jacqui Baker, head of retail at RSM UK and chair of ICAEW’s Retail Group, commented that the later than usual Black Friday weekend meant November’s retail sales figures saw only a slight uptick as cost-conscious consumers held off to bag a bargain.
“Despite many retailers launching Black Friday offers early, November trade got off to a slow start which dragged on for most of the month. This was driven by clothing which fell to its lowest level since January 2022. The only saving grace was half-term and Halloween spending helped to slightly offset disappointing sales throughout November,” Baker said.
“As consumer confidence continues to build and shoppers return to the high street, this should translate into more retail spending next year. However, there are big challenges coming down the track for the sector, so retailers will be banking on a consumer-led recovery to come to fruition so they can combat a surge in costs.”
Thomas Pugh, economist at RSM UK, added: “The tick up in retail sales volumes in November suggests that the stagnation which has gripped the UK economy since the summer continued into the final months of the year.
“While the recent strong pay growth numbers may make the Bank of England uncomfortable, it means that real incomes are growing at just under 3 per cent, which suggests consumer spending should gradually rise next year. However, consumers remain extremely cautious. The very sharp drop in clothing sales in particular could suggest that consumers are cutting back on non-essential purchases.
“We still expect a rise in consumer spending next year, due to strong wage growth and a gradual decline in the saving rate, to help drive an acceleration in GDP growth. But the risks are clearly building that cautious consumers choose to save rather than spend increases in income, raising the risk of weaker growth continuing through the first half of next year.”
Dutch dairy collective FrieslandCampina has agreed to merge with smaller Belgian rival Milcobel, creating a leading dairy cooperative.
FrieslandCampina, whose brands include Yazoo and Chocomel, said the merger will provide the foundation for a future-oriented organisation that has dairy front and centre for member dairy farmers, employees, consumers, and customers.
The proposed merger is subject to approval by FrieslandCampina’s members’ council, Milcobel’s extraordinary meeting of shareholders, and antitrust authorities. The companies said member dairy farmers, employees, works councils and trade unions have been informed about the merger proposal.
Both companies, owned by dairy farmers for many generations, complement each other well in market positions and product portfolios. The merger offers further business development opportunities in market segments such as consumer cheese, mozzarella, white dairy products (such as milk, buttermilk, and yoghurt), and ingredients, as well as benefits in efficiency and expertise, for example in the area of sustainability.
“The combination of FrieslandCampina and Milcobel is bigger than the sum of its parts. It creates a future-oriented, combined dairy cooperative that is resilient and capable of capitalising on opportunities in the dynamic global dairy market,” said Sybren Attema, chair of the board of Zuivelcoöperatie FrieslandCampina.
“This strengthens our appeal to member dairy farmers, business partners and employees. Moreover, this step supports us in realising a leading milk price for our member dairy farmers, now and in the future.”
Betty Eeckhaut, chair of the board of Milcobel, said: “The cooperative philosophy, which is deeply rooted at both Milcobel and FrieslandCampina, is the bedrock for this proposed merger. Our goal remains to create added value for our member dairy farmers.
“Through our regional complementarity we will become the cooperative dairy partner of choice for current and new members, with a solid milk supply for a successful future. For employees, the new organisation provides great opportunities to grow in an international environment. For customers, this merger means more innovation, an expanded product portfolio and further professionalisation of our services.”
Based on the combined 2023 annual figures of FrieslandCampina and Milcobel - excluding Milcobel's Ysco business, which is in the process of being divested - the new, combined organisation has a pro forma revenue of more than €14 billion (£11.6bn) , operates in 30 countries, employs nearly 22,000 staff worldwide, and processes a total volume of approximately 10 billion kilograms of milk.
The boards of the cooperatives and executive management of the two parties have signed a framework agreement regarding the proposed merger. The companies aim to finalise a detailed merger proposal in the first half of 2025, which will then be discussed with the members of FrieslandCampina and the shareholders of Milcobel.
The UK government has pledged stronger measures to combat anti-social behaviour and shoplifting, which it acknowledges as serious crimes that disrupt communities and harm businesses.
Addressing a House of Lords debate on Monday, Home Office minister Lord Hanson detailed plans to abolish the controversial £200 shoplifting threshold and to introduce a new offence for assaults on retail workers.
“Anti-social behaviour and shop theft are not minor crimes. They cause disruption in our communities,” Lord Hanson stated.
“Shop theft in particular costs retailers across the nation millions of pounds, which is passed on to us as customers, and it is not acceptable. That is why, on shop theft, we are going to end the £200 effective immunity. For shop workers, we will protect them by introducing a new offence, because they are very often upholding the law in their shops on alcohol, tobacco and other sales.”
He also emphasised the government’s commitment to restoring visible neighbourhood policing, with 13,000 additional officers and Police Community Support Officers (PCSOs) planned, as well as piloting new “respect orders” to ban repeat offenders from town centres.
Later on Wednesday, the home secretary announced a £1 billion funding boost for police across England and Wales to restore neighbourhood policing. The money will include new funding of £100 million to kickstart the recruitment of 13,000 additional neighbourhood officers, community support officers and special constables.
The debate was initiated by Labour peer Baroness Ayesha Hazarika, who painted a vivid picture of the toll anti-social behaviour takes on workers and communities. “Many people who work in shops feel like they are living in a war zone,” she said. “Anti-social behaviour can so often be the canary down the coal mine and tell a wider story about what kind of society we are living in.”
Baroness Hazarika also urged the use of technology such as facial recognition to target hardened criminals responsible for terrorising shops and local residents.
Lord Hanson agreed, adding that the government is equipping police with the resources to better address persistent offenders, including funding initiatives like Operation Pegasus, which targets organised retail crime.
Retail trade union Usdaw has welcomed the Lords debate tackling anti-social behaviour and shoplifting.
“We very much welcome that Baroness Hazarika has raised this hugely important issue for our members. It is shocking that over two-thirds of our members working in retail are suffering abuse from customers, with far too many experiencing threats and violence,” Paddy Lillis, Usdaw general secretary, said.
“After 14 years of successive Tory governments not delivering the change we need on retail crime, we are pleased that the new Labour government announced a Crime and Policing Bill in the King’s Speech and all the measures that it contains, as set out by Lord Hanson.
“The chancellor announced in the Budget funding to tackle the organised criminals responsible for the increase in shoplifting, and the government has promised more uniformed officer patrols in shopping areas. It is our hope that these new measures will help give shop workers the respect they deserve.”
In response to the mounting pressures faced by postmasters across the UK, the Post Office has unveiled a centralised wellbeing platform aimed at simplifying access to support resources.
Post Office said the surge in shoplifting and violent incidents, documented in the 2024 ACS Crime Report, has only intensified the demand for comprehensive support.
With shoplifting on the rise year-on-year since 2021, and the Christmas trading period presenting heightened risks due to increased footfall and stock levels, the wellbeing of postmasters has become a pressing concern.
The new wellbeing platform, accessible via the Branch Hub app, provides a single point of access to a range of resources designed to meet Postmasters' immediate and ongoing needs. It is divided into three sections:
‘I Need Help Right Now’: Offers urgent support, including access to emergency services, mental health first aiders, , area and business support managers and organisations like Samaritans.
‘More Support and Guidance’: Provides practical tools such as security advice, social media abuse resources, and connections to organisations like Citizens Advice and Mind.
‘Access Community Support’: Encourages peer connections through WhatsApp and Facebook groups, as well as in-person meetings.
The initiative, a collaboration between the Post Office, the National Federation of Sub-Postmasters (NFSP), and Voice of the Postmaster, underscores a shift towards a more cooperative approach between historically independent groups, and creates a shared wellbeing network that is accessible to all postmasters, regardless of affiliation.
Mark Eldridge, postmaster experience director at Post Office, said the initiative will ensure that anyone who needs help can find it quickly and easily.
“It’s about creating a culture of care and resilience in the face of the challenges our postmasters face every day. If the initiative means helping just one postmaster, then we have done our job successfully,” Eldridge added.
Tony Fleming, postmaster at Thorne Post Office, shared how the initiative provided vital support following a traumatic armed robbery at his branch.
“It was incredibly difficult for the person faced with this violent threat, as well as the wider team. It’s a traumatic experience to go through as part of your day job and having the immediate support of the Wellbeing resource was invaluable – it really was wellbeing personified and gave me and everyone in the branch the support to get back to doing what we do best, serving our fantastic community in Thorne,” Fleming said.
Paul Patel, a Hampshire-based postmaster, echoed this sentiment, highlighting the platform’s ability to combat isolation and foster collaboration:
“It has been a difficult time for all postmasters who continue to serve their communities every day often feeling alone in their daily work life. It’s such a privilege to collaborate across the network to support Postmasters wellbeing from forming friendships to guiding for more professional support.”
Christine Donnelly of the NFSP highlighted the initiative’s accessibility and symbolic value.
“From a postmaster perspective this works on several levels. It is an easily accessible resource that offers advice and facts, but it also says by implication that we care, that participants from different areas of the business recognised a need and worked together to make it the best it could be,” Donnelly noted.
“It says you are not alone or the only one - how can you be if there is a whole site available?”
The Post Office plans to evolve the platform based on postmaster feedback, ensuring it remains relevant to emerging challenges.
Earlier this week, Post Office has announced a £20 million boost for postmasters to address their concerns that their income has not kept up with inflation over the past decade.
Both independent postmasters and Post Office’s retail partners that operate branches on its behalf will receive the top-up payment ahead of Christmas. The top-up payment will be based on both the standard fixed and variable remuneration the branch received in November.
Independent retailers have weathered one of their most challenging years in 2024, with multiple headwinds affecting the sector, according to the British Independent Retailers Association (Bira).
With pressures mounting throughout the year, independent retailers have faced an increasingly difficult trading environment marked by changing consumer behaviour and economic uncertainties.
"2024 has presented unprecedented challenges for independent retailers,” said Andrew Goodacre, CEO of Bira. “Consumer spending on non-food items has declined significantly, while persistent footfall problems and fragile consumer confidence have impacted high streets nationwide. Despite inflation coming under control, interest rates are falling slowly, affecting both business and consumer spending."
"The retail landscape has become increasingly competitive, with large chains implementing deeper and longer discount periods. The rise of ultra-fast fashion retailers like Shein and Temu has created additional pressure on margins, whilst deflation on non-food items has further squeezed profits," he added.
The sector has also grappled with retail crime, with Bira's latest survey showing 78.79 per cent of businesses reporting increased frequency or severity of theft incidents.
Research from PwC earlier this year also highlighted the scale of the challenge, with 6,945 outlets shutting – equating to 38 store closures per day, up from 36 per day in 2023. The figure outnumbered the rate of new store openings, which rose modestly to 4,661, averaging 25 openings each day.
Mr Goodacre said: "The key difficulties independent retailers are grappling with include low consumer demand, as consumer confidence remains fragile and shoppers are highly value-focused. Independent shops struggle to compete on price as large chains are able to discount more deeply and for longer periods."
Looking ahead to 2025, retailers face new challenges. He added: "Medium-sized retailers will see a significant increase in employment costs, while thousands of smaller retailers will be hit with higher business rates as relief drops from 75per cent to 40 per cent."
However, Mr Goodacre said he sees reasons for optimism and added: "We expect 2025 to bring some positive changes. Wages are set to rise faster than inflation, which should boost consumer spending. Both inflation and interest rates should continue to fall, helping to rebuild consumer confidence."
"The circular economy presents a growing opportunity for independent retailers, and with economic growth set to improve, we anticipate better trading conditions. While challenges remain, independent retailers who stay adaptable and resilient will find opportunities in the year ahead."