Extreme weather events are expected to lead to volatile food prices throughout 2025, supply chain analysts have warned, after cocoa and coffee prices more than doubled over the past year.
According to a recent research by the consultancy Inverto, steep rises are observed in the prices of a number of food commodities in the year to January that correlated with unexpected weather.
The highest price rises were for cocoa and coffee, up 163 per cent and 103 per cent respectively, due to a combination of higher than average rainfall and temperatures in producing regions.
Sunflower oil prices increased by 56 per cent after drought caused poor crop yields in Bulgaria and Ukraine, which also continued to be affected by the Russian invasion.
Other food commodities with sharp year-on-year price rises included orange juice and butter, both up by more than a third, and beef, up by just over a quarter.
“Food manufacturers and retailers should diversify their supply chains and sourcing strategies to reduce over-reliance on any one region affected by crop failures,” Katharina Erfort, of Inverto, said.
Climate scientists said Inverto’s findings were in line with their expectations.
“Extreme weather events around the globe will continue to increase in severity and frequency in line with the ongoing rise in global temperature,” said Pete Falloon, a food security expert at the Met Office and University of Bristol.
“Crops are often vulnerable to extreme weather, and we can expect to witness ongoing shocks to global agricultural production and supply chains, which ultimately feed into food security concerns.”
The research findings come close on the heels of a report by National Preparedness Commission (NPC), stating that UK food supply chains face severe risks from climate change, trade barriers and global instability.
NPC warned that the country is not prepared for the scale of risks now facing its food supply. From climate change and geopolitical tensions to economic shocks and trade barriers, these challenges are making the current system unsustainable.
The NPC report calls for legislative action, suggesting that food security should be a significant legal mandate, akin to national security or energy.
A proposed Food Security and Resilience Act could possibly enshrine food security into law, recognising it as a critical element of the UK’s national infrastructure.
The report recommends a comprehensive overhaul, urging the establishment of a National Food Security Council.
