Investors are warming to beer stocks as a relatively cheap way to benefit from growth in alcohol brands, particularly in emerging markets, as easing cost pressures help brewers close the gap on the spirits giants that have outshone them for years.
While spirits companies enjoyed record growth during a post-pandemic boom in expensive liquors, brewers like Anheuser-Busch InBev and Heineken have struggled with huge spikes in costs of everything from energy to barely.
This slashed margins and hurt sales as they hiked prices to cover their bills, and accelerated a shift from wine and beer to spirits in Western markets.
But now brewers are set for a recovery in margins as inflation eases, and are raising growth ambitions. While Heineken, the world's No.2 brewer, recently disappointed markets with its cautious guidance, it still expects to sell more beer in 2024 and could see strong profit growth.
Meanwhile, economic downturns are hurting demand for spirits from companies like Diageo and Pernod Ricard.
Some investors wonder if they face a more serious challenge than a return to normality after the post-pandemic sales explosion, when many drinkers splashed out on pricey bottles of tequila, whisky and more.
"The big unknown thing for spirits versus beer is how much is in your cabinet at home," said Tom O'Hara, a Janus Henderson portfolio manager whose fund invests in beer stocks, adding bottles of liquor can sit in cupboards for years.
It was unclear how close drinkers were to running out, or if they would purchase at the same price tag even when they do, he added.
Unsold bottles of spirits are already piling up in some markets, shaking investor confidence in top firms like Diageo as some drinkers ditch pricey spirits for cheaper options.
Diageo and Pernod Ricard have also seen falling sales in the critical US market.
The risks to spirits businesses were possibly underestimated, O'Hara said, adding the stocks were also relatively expensive.
"Beer is easier: it's resilient, there's very little downtrading," he continued, adding there was a consensus building around this view.
The world's largest brewer AB InBev is scheduled to report full-year results on Feb 29. It is expected to benefit in 2024 from easier comparative numbers following a sharp drop in U.S. sales of key brand Bud Light last year due to a boycott.
Beer set to grow
Moritz Kronenberger, a portfolio manager at Germany's Union Investment, which invests across spirits and beer, said some drinkers appeared to be swapping back from spirits to beer.
However, Marco Scherer, a portfolio manager at Metzler Asset Management, which also holds both stocks, felt spirits companies' troubles were short-term.
Longer-term, they were better able to grow volumes, had strong brands and more pricing power than brewers, he said.
While beer is losing share in some markets, globally it is set to grow volumes and gain share in terms of litres of alcohol sold, Jefferies analysts said in a recent note.
Market research firm Euromonitor International expects beer's share of total alcohol volume to rise slightly by 2027, with spirits' share edging down.
International brewers are increasingly cementing their brands in big, emerging markets in Latin America, Africa and Asia, where demand for beer is growing as incomes rise, Jefferies' analysts said.
In Latin America, for example, both AB InBev and Heineken have invested in growth initiatives, such as offering fast deliveries of cold beers to drinkers' doorsteps.
That has helped drive sales in countries like Mexico - one of Heineken's top performing markets last year, chief executive Dolf van den Brink told Reuters.
Spirits sales are conversely falling in such markets, possibly because liquor makers hiked prices too far while beer has to remain affordable, Etienne Roux, a portfolio manager at beer investor Truffle Asset Management, said.
Spirits shares are also too expensive given the challenges they face, he continued.
Spirits companies' valuations have come down to trade more in line with historical levels after skyrocketing during the pandemic, while beer stocks remain cheaper than in the past.
But spirits stocks were undervalued by some measures too, said Joseph Gabelli, portfolio manager at Gabelli Funds, adding both sectors were primed for future growth.
"I wouldn't sell spirits and buy beer, but I would buy beer," he said, adding beer stocks were becoming more attractive as problems recede.
As the final key retail season of the year approaches, Nisa retailer NP Group is gearing up for Christmas with a renewed focus on store activation and point-of-sale (POS) strategy to drive sales following a successful Halloween.
With seasonal shopping trends in full swing, effective in-store activation and visibility are crucial for smaller retailers to capture customer attention and keep up with larger competitors.Data from Retail Economics shows that UK shoppers spent approximately £10 billion on seasonal products in 2023, with Halloween contributing £650 million alone, marking a steady increase in seasonal shopping over recent years.
POS and store activation remain pivotal in capturing these sales opportunities, as shoppers are more likely to make purchases when displays are both visually engaging and convenient to access.
Anthony Furnell, Head of Retail Operations at NP Group, which operates six stores, has significant experience in retailing. From his background with major retailers and suppliers, he understands that capitalising on seasonal periods is critical for convenience stores.
“Seasonal activation is really important. It’s a very competitive sector, and we’re not just competing with large supermarkets; we’re competing for convenience and ease for our customers. If a customer doesn’t see it, they don’t potentially buy it, so activation is key.”
NP Group’s Halloween strategy this year exemplifies how store activation can capture attention and improve sales. The Darwen store has allocated a dedicated Halloween space, complete with a hanging spider from the ceiling, vinyl window displays, and strategic POS items like floor stickers and overhead signs. This dynamic approach engages customers, driving incremental purchases and creating a one-stop shop for seasonal needs.
However, it’s not one-size-fits-all; each store location is tailored based on size, layout, and customer demographics.
“Our Menston store, for example, is our smallest, so we have to be selective about our seasonal range. Space is key—making sure the displays are in the right place is essential,” Anthony notes. “We’ve also have a group store WhatsApp to share best practices and ideas across locations, ensuring a cohesive yet unique seasonal activation for each store.”
Planning and evaluation are equally important in maximising seasonal sales. To meet the varying demands of each store, NP Group conducts pre-sales planning and end-of-season evaluations, which allows them to better anticipate the stock and POS materials required for future seasonal events.
“By evaluating what sold well and what didn’t, we can refine our approach and ensure we’re offering the right products in the right places for customers,” explains Anthony. “Seasonal displays and POS act as magnets that draw the eye and engage customers on a whole new level. In today’s fast-paced retail environment, it’s vital to have a captivating, well-organised space for seasonal items that entices shoppers, encourages browsing, and, ultimately, drives incremental sales.”
In addition to Halloween, Christmas activation is also underway, with stores gradually introducing festive products.
According to Anthony, “Christmas is another significant period where creative, well-placed POS and choice can create a festive in-store experience, encouraging customers to shop locally and find what they need without visiting larger stores.”
Both Halloween and Christmas offer strong opportunities for convenience retailers to increase footfall and improve basket spend. The rise in seasonal spending in convenience settings, combined with strategic activation, ensures that stores remain competitive and relevant for shoppers seeking both impulse buys and essential items.
For retailers, these activation strategies not only boost sales but also enhance customer satisfaction by creating an engaging shopping experience that keeps them coming back throughout the winter season.
Around two thirds (65 per cent) of people affected by the Horizon scandal have said it impacted their family and relationships, while many respondents report estrangement from family members because of the scandal, according to a paper published today (1) by the Post Office Horizon IT Inquiry’s listening project.
The paper title In Your Own Words illustrates the various challenges the Horizon scandal has inflicted on people’s relationships, with respondents reporting the breakdown of relationships, estrangement from family members, and acute loneliness. Some adult children of former sub-postmasters shared how they experienced bullying, financial issues and mental health struggles because of the scandal. Others reported how their parents have died before knowing the truth about the Horizon scandal, which magnified their grief.
For many the post office was a family business legacy, making subsequent issues more impactful. Many reference their parents dying before knowing the truth about Horizon, magnifying the grief of these bereavements.
240 people — including current and former sub-postmasters, family and friends — have anonymously submitted their stories to In Your Own Words so far. This paper covers responses from March 2024 to August 2024.
Some of the anonymous responses mentioned in the paper are as follows:
"“I’m 66. I’ve lost 18 years of a good relationship with my daughter. I’ve lost me.”
“My children had their childhoods abruptly taken from them when the gravity of the situation became too serious for me to shield them any longer.”
“My mother was worried for us and put a lot of her savings into the account. These savings were meant to be left to her grandchildren a regret I will live with until I die.”
“Seeing the effect on my children was extremely difficult and remains a sore subject for me to this day.”
“We would like to clear Dad’s name, so that this isn’t a part of our families inherited trauma and that his memory left is true.”
“What amount of compensation would be adequate for the stress and pain endured over two decades? What would be considered sufficient?”
“The scandal put an enormous strain on our young family. Instead of enjoying the early years of our marriage and our daughter's childhood, we were consumed by the issues at the Post Office. The stress affected our relationship, leading to frequent arguments and a pervasive sense of frustration and helplessness. Our daughter, though too young to understand, was indirectly impacted by the tension and reduced quality time with her parents.”
“My wife has replaced thousands of pounds of money that she thought she had lost due to her illness and died feeling a failure.”
The wholesalers have welcomed several measures announced in Chancellor Rachel Reeves's first budget but have raised concern the increase in National Living Wage and Employers National Insurance contributions will add an estimated £110 million in direct wage costs to the wholesale sector.
The wholesalers also pointed out that the lack of clarity on business rates reform means that wholesalers operating large physical premises remain disproportionately impacted by high rates. Without meaningful reform and a set timeline, these businesses will continue to shoulder a heavier burden than those in sectors with minimal property overhead.
Responding to the budget statement, Federation of Wholesale Distributors (FWD) Chief Executive James Bielby stated, “We are pleased to see a number of positive steps in today’s budget that will bolster the wholesale sector. The freeze on fuel duty for another year is a welcome relief for wholesalers facing rising costs, allowing for greater stability in our operations.
“We also commend the government’s commitment to increasing support to combat retail crime, which is essential for protecting wholesalers, but we must ensure that wholesalers are included within this to ensure a safe environment for all businesses in the supply chain.
“Over the coming weeks, we look forward to working closely with the government to ensure that our members, who are central to driving economic growth, are given the support they need within an uncertain economic climate.”
Increase in Employer National Insurance contributions
Wholesale body pointed out that the planned increase in employer National Insurance contributions will significantly impact food and drink wholesalers who are already facing mounting operational costs.
With the Employer National Insurance contribution rate rising from 13.8% to 15.8%, this change represents an additional £30.9 million in yearly NI costs for the sector.
Bielby said, "This increase adds financial pressure on businesses striving to support their workforce while maintaining competitive pricing in a challenging market. We urge the government to set out what support will be provided to wholesalers, particularly the many small businesses that are the lifeblood of the country, to ensure they can continue to invest in their people and operations without compromising their viability.”
Fuel duty freeze and Alcohol duty increase
FWD has also welcomed the decision to freeze fuel duty for another year, which provides much-needed relief for wholesalers who rely on transportation to deliver goods.
Bielby pointed out that this freeze will help mitigate some of the financial pressures facing the sector, allowing businesses to manage costs more effectively.
Delaying the alcohol duty increase until February 2025 provides wholesalers some time to prepare, FWD stated. However, the rise will still present substantial challenges in terms of adjusting prices, managing stock, and maintaining supply chain stability.
Biekby said, "We encourage the government to collaborate with wholesalers to ensure the transition is smooth and that unintended consequences, such as increased costs and disruptions, are minimised.”
FWD has also welcome the government’s increased support to combat retail crime and the commitment to clamp down on organised crime. While these measures are crucial in protecting the retail sector, it is essential that the same level of attention and resources is extended to wholesalers, Bielby said, adding that the wholesale sector plays a vital role in the supply chain, and any rise in retail crime not only impacts its members directly but also has broader implications for the economy and society.
Raising caution in terms of tobacco tax, Bielby stated that the implementation of such measures must be carefully considered to ensure it works for wholesalers as well.
"A tax increase should not drive consumers towards illicit markets, which could undermine the goals of the health agenda and create further challenges for legitimate businesses," he said.
The Federation of Independent Retailers (The Fed) has launched an exclusive benefits scheme for Fed members.
Called FedPlus, the scheme offers a range of discounts on a host of goods and activities, from everyday purchases to luxury products.
Through FedPlus, Fed members will have access to a range of fantastic money-saving benefits covering a wide variety of areas – from health and well-being to home and car essentials, and from food and drink to fashion and tech, entertainment, travel and experiences.
There is a Savings Calculator to show how much has been saved, based on monthly or annual spending, on a range of everyday categories. The Savings Calculator will generate a personal savings total and provide links to the individual deals.
Launching FedPlus, National President Mo Razzaq said: “In my inaugural speech at the Fed’s Annual Conference in June, I spoke about the importance of providing more benefits to help members make money, save money and make business easier.
“Just four months on, we are delighted to bring you FedPlus. This is an exciting new addition to our ever-growing list of member benefits which brings you quick, at your fingertips access to several offers across a wide range of categories so the money in your wallets and purses goes even further in these financially strained times.”
Members can access the scheme through thefedonline.com website. It went live yesterday (October 31).
FedPlus is managed and run for the Fed by Parliament Hill Limited, which has been providing benefit management solutions for membership organisations for the past 20 years. Top name companies offering discounts include Virgin Experience Days, Nuffield Health, Hotpoint, Halfords, Boots, Curry’s and EE.
Tom Sparke, joint managing director and client services director at Parliament Hill, said: “We are looking forward to working with the Fed to assist them in the fantastic support that it provides for its members.
“The Fed has a strong commitment to supporting its members, which aligns with the Parliament Hill ethos of placing the needs of our clients’ members at the heart of what we do.”
Consumers now want a greater commitment from retailers in cutting food waste, refilling stations, sustainable packaging, and partnering with social purpose organisations, states a recent research, which also highlights that a good majority (69 per cent) of younger consumers are more likely to shop with what they see as socially responsible retailers though price sensitivity still plays a crucial role.
According to the findings, published in Vypr’s Consumer Horizon Report, reducing food waste is the most important factor for the majority of UK consumers (29 per cent), especially for Gen Z women aged 18-24 (38 per cent). More than a third (37 per cent) of men aged 18-24 said they needed food storage advice. A similar number of women aged 18-24 (33 per cent) want meal kits with the exact amount of ingredients included for them to cut down on food waste.
Refill stations for personal care, cleaning products, dry goods, and beverages are also in high demand. Consumers, particularly Gen Z women, are keen to use these stations, provided they offer a cost-saving of 6-10 per cent compared to packaged goods. The study indicates that older shoppers are less likely to use refill stations unless prices are reduced by 15 per cent or more, which Vypr said shows the importance of price in driving consumers to adopt sustainable shopping habits.
The third priority for brands and retailers is to adopt sustainable packaging. Awareness of eco-friendly packaging is high, especially among younger generations. Two-thirds of UK consumers say they expect to pay more for sustainably packaged products, and that figure rises to 86 per cent among Gen Z and Millennials. However, Vypr’s research suggests that while shoppers express willingness to pay more, price sensitivity still plays a crucial role.
Ben Davis, founder of Vypr, said: “There’s often a disconnect between consumer intentions and actions. Brands need to understand that simply offering sustainable options may not be enough if price points don’t match consumer expectations.
“For Gen Z and Millennials, sustainable products need to be competitively priced or risk losing long-term loyalty. We tested this by presenting products with and without the label ‘100 per cent Recycled Packaging’ and found price remained the key purchase decision-making factor for most consumers.”
Another factor in building loyalty among younger consumers is to showcase social responsibility. The research reveals that 60% of shoppers are more likely to shop at retailers that partner with food rescue organisations or promote a charitable cause. Among Gen Z and Millennials, this figure jumps to 69%, showing a strong preference for brands that demonstrate a social purpose.
The report also reveals that 85% of shoppers are willing to pay a deposit for reusable products, though it is younger consumers, particularly those aged 18-24 who express the strongest support for such initiatives.
The Consumer Horizon report which provides insights shaping retail, product innovation, and consumer behaviour going into 2025, can be seen here.