Tobacco remains a robust and resilient category in the sales arsenal of independent retailers.
Independent retailers have had to cope with ever-increasing legislative challenges in recent years including the display ban and the European Union Revised Tobacco Products Directive (EUTPD2), which Brexit Britain still observes. Track & Trace was implemented in May 2019. EUTPD2 made it an offence for manufacturers to produce menthol cigarettes and retailers to sell menthol cigarettes from May 2020.
Now the country has returned to normal following Covid, the tobacco category is proving once again that it can stay the course, with consumers and remain a mainstay of independent retail despite all the headwinds.
According to an Imperial Tobacco report, the UK market is now worth £14 billion (before tax) per year and as it stands, there is almost a 50/50 market share split across Factory Made Cigarettes (FMC) and Roll Your Own (RYO) categories – at 52 per cent and 48 per cent respectively.
“The future of the tobacco industry lies very much within the value of the product as consumers seek out ways to save money. So, if retailers are to successfully cater to the needs of today’s customer and increase sales, then ensuring they are stocking a wide range of value tobacco products is crucial,” comments Tom Gully, Head of Consumer Marketing UK&I at Imperial Tobacco.
Photo: iStock
Given the growing cost-of living-crisis and rising energy costs, this shift towards value tobacco products is a trend that is likely to continue for some time and one that retailers should not ignore. And Gully notes that tobacco customers can generate much wider sales in store as they tend to spend more, visit more and have a higher basket spend than other shoppers.
“With household costs and inflation soaring, shoppers are now even more aware of how much they are spending. As a result, we’re seeing a move towards low-priced propositions across the entire category as a whole, resulting in the lower-priced tiered products making up a majority of tobacco sales,” Gully said.
“In fact, the sub-economy segment now makes up 63 per cent of FMC sales, while the economy segment accounts for 56 per cent of RYO, with these value segments growing at an impressive three per cent and five per cent YOY [ITUK Report on Trade, February 2022].”
Search for value
Alastair Williams, Country Director at Scandinavian Tobacco Group UK (STG UK) agrees that the impact of the cost-of-living crisis will be felt in the cigar category, just as much as any other category in-store, as consumers increasingly become price conscious. But he notes that the demand for value products in the category has been a major trend for some time now, something independent retailers have not yet tapped into.
“The search for value has been a trend in cigars for some time now, evidenced by the success of our Moments Blue brand, which offers a quality smoke at a low price. It is now the sixth best-selling cigar brand in the UK in value terms, but interestingly most of its sales go through the multiple grocery channel, so I wonder if it’s one area where independent retailers might be missing a trick by not stocking it,” he comments.
“And with the current cost-of-living crisis only likely to get worse in the coming 12 months or so, it’s sensible to assume that value products will only increase in importance across the store, and that will certainly include cigars so retailers who don’t currently stock Moments should absolutely consider doing so.”
Earlier this year, JTI has launched two of its most iconic brands into the ultra-value segment to provide retailers with high quality value for existing adult smokers. Featuring the lowest RRPs from JTI, cigarette brand Benson & Hedges Blue has unveiled a new rolling tobacco offering, Benson & Hedges Blue Rolling, whilst Mayfair introduces a new FMC range – Mayfair Silver.
JTI’s move to ultra-value – the fastest growing price segment in both FMC and RYO – is designed to cater to the growing number of adult smokers seeking affordable options from trusted tobacco brands. Driving value for customers has already shown proven results in Scotland with Kensitas Club’s move into the ultra-value segment in 2021, making it the fastest-growing brand in both FMC and RYO in the region. With Mayfair Silver and Benson & Hedges Blue Rolling, the firm looks to emulate this success in the rest of the UK.
“We know that for many existing adult smokers, price is a key factor when deciding what brand to purchase,” said Mark McGuiness, Marketing Director at JTI UK. “By offering iconic brands like Mayfair and Benson & Hedges at new ultra-low prices, retailers can capitalise on both Mayfair Silver and Benson & Hedges Blue Rolling’s brand heritage, with products that also offer a competitive price point. Retailers should price at the RRP to maximise the sales opportunity and drive incremental sales in the category.”
Benson & Hedges Blue Rolling includes quality Virginia tobacco blend and 100 papers within the 30g and 50g pouches, with an RRP of just £13.65/£22.35 per 30g/50g and will be available across England and Wales only. Mayfair Silver will be available in both King Size and Superkings at a RRP of £10.15 per 20 pack, and will be available across England, Wales and NI.
To capitalise on the sales opportunities the value segments offer, Gully suggests retailers to familiarise themselves with the key product types so they can help their customers fully understand the tobacco category and different product solutions available to them.
He notes that RYO tobacco sales are seeing a significant rise as shoppers increasingly look for products that provide value for money. The category now accounts for 48 per cent of all tobacco sales.
“With the growing cost of living crisis impacting households nationwide, we expect this consumer demand for value to increase even further in the months to come. Given this rising shift towards value products, and rolling tobacco in general, it’s important to make sure retailers cater for this demand with the right product offering,” Gully says.
“With this in mind, we’d recommend retailers checking that they have a strong variety of leading roll your own brands such as Riverstone and Players JPS, to ensure they are prepared for this rising demand for value tobacco products.”
At the same time, he notes that value could mean different things to different people, which should be an important consideration for retailers when reviewing their range.
“Some customers might be focused on the lowest price point, while others may be looking for added value formats like Players JPS Easy Rolling Tobacco which offers filters and papers in one pack. Therefore ensuring retailers stock a range that caters for these different value needs is vital in order to effectively cater for their customer base,” he explains.
From an FMC perspective, Gully recommends stocking their Embassy Signature and Richmond ranges to help unlock sales amongst adult smokers seeking out top brands at great value price points as many consumers are looking for a familiar brand that will deliver satisfaction at a low price.
Need for accessories
With more consumers now moving towards RYO products, retailers are presented with new sales opportunities within tobacco accessories, Gully notes.
“It is therefore essential that retailers cater for this rising demand by ensuring they are fully stocked up with filters, papers, lighters and other flavour-related innovations, for example, Rizla Flavour Infusions and Rizla Polar Blast Crushball filters,” he adds.
He says the Rizla Flavour Infusions range, which include flavoured cards that can be used alongside standard factory-made cigarettes or roll-your-own tobacco products, has been received well by both the trade and consumers.
Rizla Silver Kingsize Combi, which has an RRP of £1.20 and offers papers and tips together in one pack, is also gaining traction with tobacco shoppers. “Thanks to its convenient format, Rizla Combi is now proving extremely popular with shoppers looking for added value product solutions,” he says.
STG UK’s Williams says the cigar category is set to be up by 7.6 per cent in value terms on last year at just under £291 million, driven by the rise in the cigarillo segment which is now worth just over £99m and accounts for over 46 per cent of all cigar volume. However, the more traditional cigar segments are all in decline of around three to four per cent, which he attributes to a combination of factors such as some smokers moving into vaping or pouches, and people cutting down due to the on-going cost-of-living crisis.
“It’s miniatures which remain the engine room of the cigar category, so it is important retailers get this segment right. By far the biggest player here is our Signature range, which is ably supported by our Moments brand, which offers a good quality smoke at a cheaper price,” he suggests.
“Aside from cigarillos, retailers also need to consider brands in both the small and the medium/large segments to ensure they are covering their bases, so think about including the top-selling brands from each segment as a minimum. Our Henri Wintermans Half Corona is easily the best-selling brand in the medium/large segment and has enjoyed good growth over the last couple of years.”
Whilst obviously not matching the sales volumes of cigarettes or RYO tobacco, Williams notes that cigars can be an important part of the tobacco category because it’s a driver of footfall in-store and a high margin category, typically offering up to three times the margin that cigarettes do.
“For example, our Moments Blue brand offers up to 18 per cent margin when sold at its RRP. To boost cigar sales, it’s important that retailers stock the right range rather than a big range, as the top ten brands account for over 90 per cent of sales so don’t tie up your cashflow with slow moving brands,” he suggests.
He also asks retailers to think about their cigar and cigarillo offer all year round because of the margin it offers and the footfall it drives. But, Christmas season is one when the category shines.
“Certainly in the run-up to Christmas we know that cigar sales go up, so it’s really important for retailers to get their range right so they can enjoy those extra sales and rewarding profit margins which are typically three times those of cigarettes,” he says.
“It tends to be larger cigars that people will gravitate towards as a bit of a Christmas treat when they are in celebratory mood and typically have more time to enjoy it. Make sure you have brands like our Henri Wintermans Half Corona in stock as it is the UK’s best-selling medium/large cigar, and a real festive favourite.”
Know your range and customer
Shoppers will be keeping a keen eye out for any deals and value offers for the foreseeable future, so it is of key importance that retailers and their staff are well versed on what products they can offer while the demand for value is high.
“Staff who are well educated on which products offer their customers the greatest value for money will be in a far superior position to help their customers find the best products that suit their needs. This will in turn likely see these customers returning to that same store multiple times thanks to the more personable and informative purchasing experience in store,” Gully says.
He adds these value products should include those that are the lowest out of pocket spend like Embassy Signature, Richmond and Riverstone, as well as added value formats like Players JPS Easy Rolling Tobacco which offers filters and papers in one pack.
Williams concurs and adds: “When it comes to better understanding the category, nothing beats face to face communication so first and foremost we have our field sales force which goes out and visits convenience retailers daily to share their knowledge and expertise on how to maximise sales from cigars.”
If they don’t currently get regular visits from an STG rep, retailers can contact STG UK by e-mailing to Enquiries.uk@st-group.com to request a visit. He also suggests the firm’s trade website (www.stgtrade.co.uk) as a good reference point for retailers to increase their knowledge and that of their staff. They also send out quarterly e-newsletters, highlighting latest news and trends impacting the category, plus planograms, pricelists and much more.
Gully also stresses on the need for training in the category. “We recommend that retailers and their employees are fully trained and equipped to offer those shopping in their store a tailored and personal experience to ensure repeat visits and customer loyalty,” he says.
“It is key that staff are encouraged to read the latest category developments, news and features in the trade press. This is an effective way for employees to gain further insight and understanding into the key trends, different terminology and new products available.”
Photo: iStock
He adds that their Ignite app will also be a useful resource for retailers, allowing both them and their staff to stay on top of the latest news, information and all training opportunities to ensure their store runs to its fullest potential. The app offers users a range of helpful tools and advice, including incentive articles, downloadable POS, product information and key tips on how to maximise sales in store.
Understanding the customer base is also equally important as each store and the customers who shop there will be different. Gully recommends retailers to look at what their customers are most commonly purchasing, or in some cases, not buying at all and then adapt their range to suit their customers’ purchasing choices.
“For example, some stores will have shoppers who prefer premium products, while others will find their customer base is far more geared towards value tobacco products,” he explains.
“We would advise retailers in the first instance to ensure they stock a range of products across all segments and then upweight the range on offer according to customer demand, whether that be value or premium FMC and RYO tobacco products.”
Williams adds: “I think in general talking to your customers is key, but particularly with your tobacco customers, who may well be the most loyal you have so it makes sense to treat them accordingly.
“We all know that their associated basket spend can often be significant too, so always keep their brands in stock and don’t give them a reason to shop elsewhere. Now, and for the foreseeable future, many of your customers will be searching for value propositions so let them know what products you can offer them to help them save money.”
The UK retail sector is bracing for a challenging but opportunity-filled 2025, according to Jacqui Baker, head of retail at RSM UK. While the industry grapples with rising costs and heightened crime, advancements in artificial intelligence and a revival of the high street offer potential pathways to growth, she said.
The latest Budget delivered a tough blow to the retail sector, exacerbating existing financial pressures. Retailers, who already shoulder a significant portion of business rates and rely heavily on a large workforce, face increased costs from rising employers’ National Insurance Contributions.
“Higher costs will also eat into available funds for future pay rises, benefits or pension contributions – hitting retailers’ cashflow in the short term and employees’ remuneration in the longer term,” Baker said.
“Retailers must get creative to manage their margins and attract footfall and spend, plus think outside the box to incentivise employees if they’re to hold onto talented staff.”
On the brighter side, falling inflation and lower interest rates could ease operational costs and restore consumer confidence, potentially driving retail spending upward.
High street resurgence
Consumers’ shopping habits are evolving, with a hybrid approach blending online and in-store purchases. According to RSM UK’s Consumer Outlook, 46 per cent of consumers prefer in-store shopping for weekly purchases, compared to 29 per cent for online, but the preference shifts to 47 per cent for online shopping for monthly buys and to 29 per cent for in-store. The most important in-store aspect for consumers was ease of finding products (59%), versus convenience (37%) for online.
“Tactile shopping experiences remain an integral part of the purchase journey for shoppers, so retailers need to prioritise convenience and the opportunity for discovery to bring consumers back to the high street,” Baker noted.
The government’s initiative to auction empty shops is expected to make brick-and-mortar stores more accessible to smaller, independent retailers, further boosting high street revival, she added.
A security guard stands in the doorway of a store in the Oxford Street retail area on December 13, 2024 in London, EnglandPhoto by Leon Neal/Getty Images
Meanwhile, retail crime, exacerbated by cost-of-living pressures, remains a significant concern, with shoplifting incidents reaching record highs. From organised social media-driven thefts to fraudulent delivery claims, the methods are becoming increasingly sophisticated.
“Crime has a knock-on effect on both margins and staff morale, so while the government is cracking down on retail crime, retailers also have a part to play by investing in data to prevent and detect theft,” Baker said.
“Data is extremely powerful in minimising losses and improving the overall operational efficiency of the business.”
AI as a game-changer
Artificial intelligence is emerging as a transformative force for the retail sector. From personalised product recommendations and inventory optimisation to immersive augmented reality experiences, AI is reshaping the shopping landscape.
“AI will undoubtedly become even more sophisticated over time, creating immersive and interactive experiences that bridge the gap between online and in-store. Emerging trends include hyper-personalisation throughout the entire shopping journey, autonomous stores and checkouts, and enhanced augmented reality experiences to “try” products before buying,” she said, adding that AI will be a “transformative investment” that determines the long-term viability of retail businesses.
The Amazon Fresh store in Ealing, LondonPhoto: Amazon
As financial pressures ease, sustainability is climbing up the consumer agenda. RSM’s Consumer Outlook found 46 per cent would pay more for products that are sustainably sourced, up from 28 per cent last year; while 44 per cent would pay more for products with environmentally friendly packaging, compared to 36 per cent last year.
“However, ESG concerns vary depending on age and income, holding greater importance among high earners and millennials. With financial pressures expected to continue easing next year, we anticipate a renewal of sustainability and environmentally conscious spending habits,” Baker noted.
“Retailers ought to tap into this by understanding the preferences of different demographics and most importantly, their target market.”
Southend-on-Sea City Council officials have secured food condemnation orders from Chelmsford Magistrates Court, resulting in the seizure and destruction of 1,100 unauthorised soft drinks.
The condemned drinks, including Mountain Dew, 7-UP, Mirinda, and G Fuel energy drinks, were found during routine inspections of food businesses across Southend by the council’s environmental health officers.
Council said these products contained either banned additives like Calcium Disodium EDTA or unauthorised novel ingredients such as Potassium Beta-hydroxybutyrate.
Calcium Disodium EDTA has been linked to potential reproductive and developmental effects and may contribute to colon cancer, according to some studies. Potassium Beta-hydroxybutyrate has not undergone safety assessments, making its inclusion in food products unlawful.
Independent analysis certified that the drinks failed to meet UK food safety standards. Magistrates ordered their destruction and ruled that the council's costs, expected to total close to £2,000, be recovered from the businesses involved.
“These products, clearly marketed towards children, contain banned or unauthorised ingredients. Southend-on-Sea City Council will always take action to protect the public, using enforcement powers to ensure unsafe products are removed from sale,” Cllr Kevin Robinson, cabinet member for regeneration, major projects, and regulatory services, said.
“As Christmas approaches, we hope this sends a strong message to businesses importing or selling such products: they risk significant costs and possible prosecution.”
The council urged residents to check labels when purchasing imported sweets and drinks, ensuring they include English-language details and a UK importer's address.
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A customer browses clothes inside Charity Super.Mkt at Brent Cross Shopping centre in north London on, December 17, 2024
Bursting with customers one afternoon the week before Christmas, a second-hand charity shop in London's Marylebone High Street looked even busier than the upscale retailers surrounding it.
One man grabbed two puzzle sets and a giant plush toy as a present for friends, another picked out a notebook for his wife.
“Since the end of September, we've seen a huge uplift in people coming to our shops and shopping pre-loved,” said Ollie Mead, who oversees the shop displays - currently glittering with Christmas decorations - for Oxfam charity stores around London.
At the chain of second-hand stores run by the British charity, shoppers can find used, or "pre-loved", toys, books, bric-a-brac and clothes for a fraction of the price of new items.
Popular for personal shopping, charity stores and online second-hand retailers are seeing an unlikely surge in interest for Christmas gifts, a time of year often criticised for promoting consumerism and generating waste.
A report last month by second-hand retail platform Vinted and consultants RetailEconomics found UK customers were set to spend £2 billion on second-hand Christmas gifts this year, around 10 per cent of the £20 billion Christmas gift market.
A woman browses some of the Christmas gift ideas in a store on December 13, 2024 in London, England. Photo by Leon Neal/Getty Images
In an Oxfam survey last year, 33 per cent were going to buy second-hand gifts for Christmas, up from 25 percent in 2021.
“This shift is evident on Vinted,” Adam Jay, Vinted's marketplace CEO, told AFP.
“We've observed an increase in UK members searching for 'gift' between October and December compared to the same period last year.”
According to Mead, who has gifted second-hand items for the last three Christmas seasons, sustainability concerns and cost-of-living pressures are “huge factors”.
Skimming the racks at the central London store, doctor Ed Burdett found a keychain and notebook for his wife.
“We're saving up at the moment, and she likes to give things another life. So it'll be the perfect thing for her,” Burdett, 50, told AFP.
“It's nice to spend less, and to know that it goes to a good place rather than to a high street shop.”
'Quirky, weird
Wayne Hemingway, designer and co-founder of Charity Super.Mkt, a brand which aims to put charity shops in empty shopping centres and high street spaces, has himself given second-hand Christmas gifts for “many, many years”.
“When I first started doing it, it was classed as quirky and weird,” he said, adding it was now going more “mainstream”.
Similarly, when he first started selling second-hand clothes over 40 years ago, “at Christmas your sales always nosedive(d) because everybody wanted new”.
Now, however, “we are seeing an increase at Christmas sales just like a new shop would”, Hemingway told AFP.
“Last weekend sales were crazy, the shop was mobbed,” he said, adding all his stores had seen a 20-percent higher than expected rise in sales in the weeks before Christmas.
“Things are changing for the better... It's gone from second-hand not being what you do at Christmas, to part of what you do.”
Young people are driving the trend by making more conscious fashion choices, and with a commitment to a “circular economy” and to “the idea of giving back (in) a society that is being more generous and fair,” he said.
At the store till, 56-year-old Jennifer Odibo was unconvinced.
Buying herself a striking orange jacket, she said she “loves vintage”.
But for most people, she confessed she would not get a used gift. “Christmas is special, it needs to be something they would cherish, something new,” said Odibo.
“For Christmas, I'll go and buy something nice, either at Selfridges or Fenwick,” she added, listing two iconic British department stores.
Hemingway conceded some shoppers “feel that people expect something new” at Christmas.
“We're on a journey. The world is on a journey, but it's got a long way to go,” he added.
According to Tetyana Solovey, a sociology researcher at the University of Manchester, “for some people, it could be a bit weird to celebrate it (Christmas) with reusing.”
“But it could be a shift in consciousness if we might be able to celebrate the new year by giving a second life to something,” Solovey told AFP.
“That could be a very sustainable approach to Christmas, which I think is quite wonderful.”
Lancashire Mind’s 11th Mental Elf fun run was its biggest and best yet – a sell-out event with more than 400 people running and walking in aid of the mental charity, plus dozens more volunteering to make the day a huge success.
The winter sun shone on Worden Park in Leyland as families gathered for either a 5K course, a 2K run, or a Challenge Yours’Elf distance which saw many people running 10K with the usual running gear replaced with jazzy elf leggings, tinsel and Christmas hats.
And now the pennies have been counted, Lancashire Mind has announced that the event raised a fantastic £17,000.
This amount of money allows Lancashire Mind to deliver, for example, its 10-week Bounce Forward resilience programme in eight schools, reaching more than 240 children with skills and strategies that they can carry with them throughout their lives, making them more likely to ‘bounce forward’ through tough times.
The event was headline sponsored by SPAR for a third year through its association with James Hall & Co. Ltd, SPAR UK’s primary retailer, wholesaler, and distributor for the North of England.
“On behalf of the entire team at Lancashire Mind, we want to extend a heartfelt thank you to the 400+ incredible participants who joined us for Mental Elf 2024!” said Organiser Nicola Tomkins, Community and Events Fundraiser at Lancashire Mind.
“Your support, energy and commitment to raising awareness for mental health makes all the difference. Together, we've taken another important step towards breaking the stigma around mental health and promoting wellbeing for all in our community. We couldn't have done it without you!”
Worden Hall became the hub of the event where people could enjoy music from the Worldwise Samba Drummers and BBC stars Jasmine and Gabriella T, plus lots of family friendly activities and a chance to meet Father Christmas. Pets also got in on the act in the best dressed dog competition.
Lancashire Mind CEO David Dunwell said: “It was heart-warming day, full of community spirit and festive cheer, but with a serious aim to raise funds for mental health.
“We are so grateful to everyone who bought a ticket and fundraised or donated to help us smash our target. The money raised goes directly to supporting Lancashire Mind’s life-changing mental health services. These funds help provide wellbeing coaching, support groups, and educational programmes to individuals and families in need of mental health support in our community.”
The concept of Mental Elf was created by Lancashire Mind and news of the event has spread right across the country in recent years, with around 40 other local Mind charities hosting a similar event in 2024.
Lancashire schools were also encouraged to host their own Mental Elf-themed event this year, whether that was a run, bake sale or dress up day, and raised more than £1,000 in total.
Philippa Harrington, Marketing Manager at James Hall & Co. Ltd, said: “There was a lovely festive feel in the air at Mental Elf and we were delighted to see even more individuals, families, and canine companions taking part in its new home of Worden Park.
“We are also very pleased to see the uptake that Mental Elf has had in schools, and congratulations go to the Lancashire Mind team for taking it to new participants and for raising a fantastic amount of money for an important cause.”
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A woman walks past a window display promoting an ongoing sale, on December 13, 2024 in London, England.
UK retail sales rose less than expected in the runup to Christmas, according to official data Friday that deals a fresh blow to government hopes of growing the economy.
Separate figures revealed a temporary reprieve for prime minister Keir Starmer, however, as public borrowing fell sharply in November.
The updates follow news this week of higher inflation in Britain - an outcome that caused the Bank of England on Thursday to leave interest rates unchanged.
Retail sales by volume grew 0.2 per cent in November after a drop of 0.7 per cent in October, the Office for National Statistics said Friday.
That was less than analysts' consensus for a 0.5-percent gain.
"It is critical delayed spending materialises this Christmas to mitigate the poor start to retail's all-important festive season," noted Nicholas Found, senior consultant at Retail Economics.
"However, cautiousness lingers, slowing momentum in the economy. Households continue to adjust to higher prices (and) elevated interest rates."
He added that consumers were focused on buying "carefully timed promotions and essentials, while deferring bigger purchases".
The ONS reported that supermarkets benefited from higher food sales.
"Clothing stores sales dipped sharply once again, as retailers reported tough trading conditions," said Hannah Finselbach, senior statistician at the ONS.
Retail sales rose 0.2% in November 2024, following a fall of 0.7% in October 2024.
Growth in supermarkets and other non-food stores was partly offset by a fall in clothing retailers.
The Labour government's net borrowing meanwhile dropped to £11.2 billion last month, the lowest November figure in three years on higher tax receipts and lower debt-interest, the ONS added.
The figure had been £18.2 billion in October.
"Borrowing remains subject to upside risks... due to sticky interest rates, driven by markets repricing for fewer cuts in 2025," forecast Elliott Jordan-Doak, senior UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
Jacqui Baker, head of retail at RSM UK and chair of ICAEW’s Retail Group, commented that the later than usual Black Friday weekend meant November’s retail sales figures saw only a slight uptick as cost-conscious consumers held off to bag a bargain.
“Despite many retailers launching Black Friday offers early, November trade got off to a slow start which dragged on for most of the month. This was driven by clothing which fell to its lowest level since January 2022. The only saving grace was half-term and Halloween spending helped to slightly offset disappointing sales throughout November,” Baker said.
“As consumer confidence continues to build and shoppers return to the high street, this should translate into more retail spending next year. However, there are big challenges coming down the track for the sector, so retailers will be banking on a consumer-led recovery to come to fruition so they can combat a surge in costs.”
Thomas Pugh, economist at RSM UK, added: “The tick up in retail sales volumes in November suggests that the stagnation which has gripped the UK economy since the summer continued into the final months of the year.
“While the recent strong pay growth numbers may make the Bank of England uncomfortable, it means that real incomes are growing at just under 3 per cent, which suggests consumer spending should gradually rise next year. However, consumers remain extremely cautious. The very sharp drop in clothing sales in particular could suggest that consumers are cutting back on non-essential purchases.
“We still expect a rise in consumer spending next year, due to strong wage growth and a gradual decline in the saving rate, to help drive an acceleration in GDP growth. But the risks are clearly building that cautious consumers choose to save rather than spend increases in income, raising the risk of weaker growth continuing through the first half of next year.”