Farmers have warned they have "nothing to lose", campaigners have warned, amid fears grow that parts of the farming industry may disrupt food supplies in protest against the Government's inheritance tax policy while ministers are reportedly preparing contingency plans to ensure stores shelves remain stocked.
Industry officials are closely monitoring the escalating tensions and are expected to meet with government representatives this week to assess the potential impact of any action, The Telegraph reported on Sunday (17). This comes ahead of a planned rally on Tuesday (19), where as many as 20,000 farmers are set to converge outside Parliament to protest a 20 per cent tax on inherited agricultural land valued at over £1 million.
Campaign groups cautioned on Sunday that failure to negotiate a resolution could see more radical factions resort to drastic measures, such as blockading ports, airports, and railway lines.
The threat has raised concerns about empty supermarket shelves this winter and risks bringing back memories of disruption last seen at the start of the Covid pandemic, when people stockpiled food at home.
However, Environment Secretary Steve Reed has dismissed the possibility of a policy reversal. Writing in The Telegraph, he urged farmers to “check the facts” and defended the Government’s stance.
In a further attempt to defuse tensions, one minister called for calm, while a Labour MP suggested dissenting farmers had been misled by powerful landowners. With the protest looming and supply chains under threat, the Government faces mounting pressure to address the growing unrest within the farming community.
Prime minister Sir Keir Starmer, who is currently attending the G20 summit in Brazil, defended the Government’s Budget, highlighting a record £5 billion investment in farming. Speaking to reporters aboard a flight to Rio de Janeiro, he acknowledged concerns over the controversial inheritance tax but sought to reassure farmers.
“Obviously, there’s an issue around inheritance tax, and I do understand the concern,” Starmer said. “But for a typical case—parents with a farm they want to pass on to one of their children—by the time you account for exemptions on the farm property, spouse-to-spouse transfers, and parent-to-child allowances, there’s £3 million before any inheritance tax applies. That’s why I am absolutely confident the vast majority of farms and farmers will not be affected by this.”
The National Farmers’ Union (NFU) has publicly urged its members not to strike, but some farmers are threatening action. Clive Bailye, one of the organisers of Tuesday’s protest, said he would not condone direct action but warned some farmers could take matters into their own hands.
“If they really got their act together, they could block entire train tracks and ports. English farmers are a bit more Queensberry Rules than the French, they don’t want to punish the public. I could see things like ports or airports being disrupted if the Government really does dig in, that is what we are going to see over the winter.”
Meanwhile, Andrew Opie, director of food and sustainability at the British Retail Consortium, said, “Retailers are closely monitoring the impact of the potential interventions, including strikes, but are adept at dealing with disruption and are working hard to ensure customers aren’t impacted.”
According to a new Accenture research, price remains a significant factor in spending decisions this festive season, with nearly two-thirds of Brits (62 per cent) maintaining or reducing their budget compared to last year,
Feeling the squeeze, shoppers are tightening their purse strings yet again, with consumers planning to spend on average 11 per cent less than last year. To manage festive spending, 41 per cent are setting strict budgets and 36 per cent are searching for promotions, while nearly half (45 per cent) plan to delay their shopping until November and December.
As shoppers seek more economical ways to gift, the research shows that one in five (20 per cent) UK adults plan to buy presents second-hand from resale platforms, such as Vinted or Depop, or from charity shops. This trend is even more pronounced among Gen Z, with 25 per cent incorporating thrifting into their festive shopping plans.
Stuart Chalmers, retail lead for Accenture in the UK, said, “It will be another tricky festive season for retailers this year. Not only will they need to navigate consumers who continue to be cautious with their spending, but they must account for a developing shift in shopping behaviour, especially amongst Gen Z and Gen Alpha. These younger generations are embracing ‘lifestyle commerce’, which offers seamless shopping experiences and dynamic, consumer-driven marketplaces often found on social media platforms.
"To meet sales targets, retailers must understand that shoppers are increasingly moving towards digital channels, and resale platforms, not solely for financial reasons, but because they prefer the experience. More than ever, it’s crucial for retailers to understand the underlying motivations behind these behavioural shifts and adjust their strategies to accommodate the changing landscape.”
Experience based gifts
Many consumers are moving away from material gifts altogether in 2024, opting for more specific experiences instead. Nearly half (48 per cent) of shoppers said experience-based gifts, like travel and entertainment would allow them to do something unique.
Brits are at the forefront of this trend, with 67 per cent considering buying experiences for family and friends this season with most popular gift being entertainment, such as concert or theme park tickets (49 per cent), followed by travel (44 per cent) and wellness, like gym or spa and yoga retreats (43 per cent).
Gift cards
With UK festive shoppers overwhelmed by the amount of information they need to sift through when buying a gift (76 per cent) and 77 per cent overwhelmed by the number of options, weary shoppers are turning to gift cards to solve their "buyers’ block" – with over half of Brits receiving one last year.
While gift cards are chosen for their convenience – 71 per cent of consumers cite ease as the main reason for buying them. However, 39 per cent of receivers felt disappointed that the giver did not spend enough time to plan a personalised gift. To compound this, the research found that recipients aren’t making the most of their gift cards, with fewer than half using the total balance, and a notable 27 per cent forgetting about it entirely. As a result, an average of £109 per person was left unspent on gift cards in the UK last year.
While the purchase of a gift card immediately translates into revenue for the retailer, unredeemed cards represent a significant missed opportunity for retailers, which could gain new, lifelong customers and incremental sales if used effectively.
Chalmers continued, “With Brits fed up with receiving gift cards in their current state, there is great potential for a redesign. Building creativity and interactivity into the experience can help evolve gift cards from a last-minute, mind-blank gifting solution, into a thoughtful and personal gift that customers are excited to give, and recipients are excited to use."
UK consumers have started their holiday shopping earlier this year, driven by a desire to spread out their spending and find the best value gifts. However, the cost-of-living crisis continues to have an impact on spending over the festive season, with many shoppers worried about how they will finance their holiday purchases, according to the latest EY Holiday Shopping Survey.
The EY survey, which polled 1000 UK consumers on their views and attitudes towards the upcoming holiday sales season, revealed that while 64 per cent of UK consumers enjoy sales events like Black Friday and Boxing Day, an equal percentage will only buy on sale to stay within budget.
Almost three-quarters ( 73%) are sceptical about the real value of festive season discounts with 55 per cent of consumers willing to pay full price for important gifts rather than wait for sales.
Festive promotions started earlier this year, with many retailers stocking Christmas goods alongside Halloween products. This prompted early Christmas shopping trips, with nearly half of consumers (46%) beginning their festive shopping before November. However, there is a growing focus on affordability, with more than half of consumers (53%) concerned about affording the holiday season.
To manage costs, 45 per cent plan to use credit, and 40 per cent intend to utilise ‘buy now, pay later’ options. Price is the most critical factor for 48 per cent of consumers when choosing which retailer to shop with, overshadowing other factors such as quality, availability, and promotions.
“Consumers are clearly adapting to the current economic climate by starting their holiday shopping earlier to pick off early bargains, and being more strategic with their spending. While the cost-of-living crisis remains a significant concern, it’s encouraging that shoppers are finding ways to manage their budgets and still prioritise meaningful gifts for their loved ones,” said Silvia Rindone, EY UK&I retail lead.
“Retailers have an important role to play in supporting consumers through this period by offering flexible payment options and must clearly communicate their value proposition to shoppers, attracting price-sensitive customers with great prices, and clear articulate of the value for the premium parts of their range. When it comes to sales, they need to carefully consider the timing and depth of promotions, and whether these are truly the best options for their customers.”
Bricks and clicks no longer enough
Stores remain key to festive shopping, with 70 per cent of consumers planning to make purchases in physical stores, which serve as the primary source of ideas and inspiration and allow customers to experience products before purchase.
However, the majority of UK consumers will also be shopping on online channels, with 70 per cent planning to shop with online-only retailers, 52 per cent with omnichannel retailers, 45 per cent with marketplaces, and 33 per cent with brands online.
Social shopping; the selling and buying of products directly on social media, is becoming increasingly important, with 20 per cent of consumers expecting to purchase from shoppable social content, rising to a third (33%) of Gen Z, who use social media for inspiration and rely on influencer and peer reviews. Shorter delivery propositions are also key, with 22 per cent preferring same-day delivery and 37 per cent next-day delivery, while only 30 per cent prefer to use the retailer's default delivery day.
Additionally, 53 per cent of consumers will find another item to buy to meet the minimum purchase amount for free shipping.
“To succeed, retailers must have a presence everywhere—standout stores or pop-ups, and a strong proposition across all digital channels, including social media, to drive both online conversions and in-store traffic. This broad approach adds complexity, as retailers must also tailor their messages to meet individual consumer needs on the channels that matter most to them,” Rindone added.
“The next few months are a critical time for many retailers. As their labour costs will increase next year, they need to make sure they drive margin in this Golden Quarter so that investments can be made in their proposition. Shoppers are willing to spend if the price is right, and the proposition is strong, so continuing to run as efficiently as possible while steadily improving the experience for customers is key. Much like the last few years, the market is getting tougher, and only those able to continually evolve will thrive.”
The world’s largest olive oil producer, Deoleo, has predicted a significant drop in olive oil prices, offering relief to households battered by years of rising food costs.
The Spanish company, which owns major brands including Bertolli and Carapelli, announced that the worst of the weather-driven crisis affecting the olive oil industry appears to be over. Deoleo forecasts that prices could halve in the coming months, following a record high caused by droughts and other climate-related challenges.
The anticipated price drop comes as this season’s olive harvest is expected to surpass last year’s, marking a turnaround for an industry that has struggled with extreme weather events in recent years.
This news will likely bring respite to shoppers, many of whom have seen the cost of olive oil double on supermarket shelves. In the UK, prices have surged by 150 per cent since late 2021, according to data from the Office for National Statistics, with olive oil becoming a symbol of wider food inflation pressures.
Deoleo, the maker of brands such as Bertolli and Carbonell, acknowledged that the olive oil industry has been through "one of the most difficult moments" in its history.
Miguel Ángel Guzmán, chief sales officer at Deoleo, told CNBC: “We are still going through a phase of tension in olive oil prices, especially in the higher quality oils, such as extra virgin. However, the outlook is positive for the coming months, as the market is expected to begin to stabilise and normality is expected to be gradually restored as the new harvest progresses and supply increases.”
Years of droughts and extreme weather across southern Europe, the Mediterranean’s olive oil heartland, have devastated harvests and driven prices to historic highs. Spain, which produces 40 per cent of the world’s olive oil, was particularly hard hit, with production falling to just 850,000 tonnes last year.
However, conditions are improving. The International Olive Oil Council predicts a better harvest this year across key producing countries, including Spain, Greece, Portugal, and Tunisia. Reports from Spanish farmers indicate that production could rebound to 1.4 million tonnes, nearly double last year’s output.
Guzmán added that wholesale prices are expected to decline between November and January, continuing to fall well into 2025—provided weather conditions remain stable. Current supermarket prices in Spain, which range from £7.50-£8.34 per litre, could drop to £4.17 per litre as the market stabilises.
Shoppers are becoming increasingly discerning when it comes to winning their loyalty with most now expect offers to be personalised while appetite for offers has grown over the last 12 months, shows a recent survey's findings.
In a new research from American Express, the survey of both UK consumers and retail decision makers reinforced that generic offers and incentives are not enough to win over new customers, and don’t positively impact long term loyalty.
Over seven in 10 shoppers (73 per cent) said when they receive offers like this via email, they tend to go unused. Almost three quarters (74 per cent) said they now expect offers to be personalised to them, for example, linked to products they’ve previously bought, and based on their previous interactions with the brand, or delivered at the right time, e.g. a birthday or following a recent purchase.
With consumers now seeking out tailored offers and services at every touchpoint, for retailers this means putting personalisation at the heart of their customer engagement strategy. The vast majority (93 per cent) of UK retailers surveyed acknowledge that appetite for offers has grown within their customer base over the last 12 months.
They’re taking concerted action, with personalisation being crucial; 94 per cent of retailers said their top priority for the year ahead is "making customers feel like we really know them". About a third (31 per cent) are looking to launch a new offers or loyalty programme over the next year.
The consumer research revealed a particular appetite for card-linked offers – digital offers from retailers which are directly linked to a particular payment method like a credit card, with three quarters (74 per cent) saying if a retailer gave them an offer like this, they’d choose them over an alternative retail brand that doesn’t, and two thirds (67 per cent) said they’d be likely to spend more.
Dan Edelman, general manager, UK Merchant Services at American Express, said, “Consumers have increasingly high expectations when it comes to being rewarded for their spending. Our research shows retailers recognise the need to respond to this demand as they focus on attracting and retaining customers.
"Card-linked offers such as Amex Offers can be a compelling solution for merchants – providing a strategic and efficient addition to marketing programmes, whether incentivising first-time purchase, driving up transaction values, or helping to build long term loyalty.”
Shoppers are saving on grocery essentials to be able to afford treats and indulgences during Christmas while the festive time is expected to see a boost in sales of premium private label food and drink as more people "dine at home" , shows recent industry data.
According to total till data from NIQ, sales growth in UK stores stores slowed to 4.0 per cent in the four weeks ending 2nd November, down from a 4.7 per cent rise in the previous month. The research firm suggested that this is likely due to shoppers holding back their spending in anticipation of Black Friday at the end of the month and the upcoming Christmas festivities.
Despite easing inflation, shoppers were still cautious with their grocery shop, with spend per visit down 6 per cent on last year at £18.67. They also remained savvy with how they spend, with sales of items on promotion increasing from 24 per cent to 25 per cent. NIQ noted that 36 per cent of branded sales came from promotions – up from 35 per cent a year ago – with brands heavily reliant on deals to deliver volume growth.
Meanwhile, confectionery (+10.5 per cent) was the fastest-growing category last month as shoppers stocked up on sweets for Halloween and Christmas. However, shoppers reigned in on essentials with subdued value growth in the packaged grocery category (+1.7 per cent) and a decline in unit growth (-0.8 per cent).
Moreover, despite an increased level of promotions, shoppers cut back on purchasing beer, wine and spirits with a unit sales decline of 0.4 per cent – a sign that shoppers are holding back until nearer the festivities. NIQ pointed to a recent Homescan survey showing that price reductions and promotions are almost expected by consumers ahead of Christmas. The most popular are retailer vouchers with money off (24 per cent, up from 17 per cent last year) and product promotions (35 per cent, up from 29 per cent last year), which are the key factors considered by shoppers when choosing their Christmas store.
The data also shows that the cautious consumer sentiment has put pressure on general merchandise sales in supermarkets, with value down 1.4 per cent and volumes falling 5.5 per cent.
Mike Watkins, NIQ’s UK Head of Retailer and Business Insight, said, “Total Till sales over the last four weeks have slowed, with shoppers pulling back their spend. Shoppers so far have been cautious, and it’s evident that they are saving on grocery essentials to be able to afford treats and indulgences.
“However, the start of the Christmas advertising campaigns is an opportunity for brands and retailers to entice consumers and showcase what’s new and what’s different. And given that it’s possible that many shoppers will ‘dine at home’ more in the next few weeks, we expect this to boost sales in premium private label food and drink, which NIQ expects to do very well this Christmas.”