Nikesh Patel proved that his Northampton Costcutter is a cutting-edge vape destination when he won the Asian Trader Vape Convenience Retailer of the Year Award last November
Vaping products were the fastest growing category in UK grocery for the second year running in 2023, and Nikesh Patel, who runs the Costcutter store in Lumbertubs, Northampton, is a witness to the rapid rise of vaping over the past decade.
His success in adapting the category to meet the changing needs of his customers won him the Vape Convenience Retailer of the Year trophy at the Asian Trader Awards 2023.
In fact, he is a pioneer in the sale of vaping products in the convenience channel, having started selling them way back in 2011!
“I've got a friend who had a vape shop in Shoreditch, and he said, come down, have a look, maybe you'd like to stock some of this stuff in your shop,” Nikesh recalls.
“So we went down, had a look and it was really good. He showed us how everything worked, like how to put it together, how to fill it up. The information is very useful for the customers when we sell it on. So we tried to do a bit of research into how it all works from my friend. And then we purchased a good little range from him. And it did well.”
The vape market was just taking off in the UK at the time, and Nikesh has since ensured to stay ahead of the vaping curve, from big tanks to the disposables and now to the refillable pods.
He also caught the disposable vape trend early, again from a friend, who has been prolific smoker.
“It was just before Covid. He was smoking on the Geek Bars, and I asked him, what is this? He used to smoke one cigarette after another. One night, when I'm having dinner, he was smoking this Geek Bar, and I was asking him about it. He told me, ‘Nikki you try them, you will one million per cent sell them, because they're starting to take off’.”
It was not easy to get hold of the product at first, and he was wary of buying from van sellers. Then, one of his suppliers started stocking them, and they began stocking a small range, with Geek Bars, followed by Elfbars.
“We had a little, literally the tiniest little stand you can think of. And then obviously, what happened was the other companies started coming through with their vapes, and the flavours started to increase in variety. And we had nowhere to put all of this stuff at all.”
Refitting vape section
They were thinking about a refit of the store at the time, and he credits his suppliers and symbol group for transforming the vape section into what it is today.
“I was kind of happy with the little unit that we had on the till counter. But Costcutter said ‘Look, we will do a little refit on the front of the shop, new front area, basically’. We redesigned the whole behind-the-counter, and on the side of the counter. And what we did was, we stuck in these vape units.”
They bought the vape units themselves, but Nikesh wasn’t happy with the wooden units with glass doors. Then, the Philip Morris representative suggested Aquavape to him.
“She said, ‘Oh, do you know what? We've just partnered with a company called Aquavape. They would put in the units for free and they’ll stock it for free’. I thought, that sounds interesting, and when I went on their website, they had every single variety you could think of. It was easy ordering. It was just simple and really easy to use,” he says.
Nikesh is full of praise for Aquavape’s strategy of recognising the “in thing” in the market and pushing it, and also removing something if it is no longer in demand.
“It was doing half the job for me really. All I have to do is order, rather than worrying about this isn't selling and that's really fast and all that stuff. So I was quite happy with that,” he says.
They ordered four units and installed a two-metre vape section. And Nikesh just kept on stocking it. “Every week I'd make an order. I never let it run down, ever. Whatever you want, it was always, always there. And that really helped, because that pushed our sales to about £5,000-£6000 a week, just in vape.”
Pushing innovation
The category is set to face regulatory headwinds, with the recently introduced Tobacco and Vapes Bill proposing new powers to change how vapes are displayed in shops and restrict vape flavours and packaging, along with the ban on the sale and supply of disposable vapes, set to take effect from April 2025, (proposed under separate environmental legislation).
But Nikesh feels innovative new products will keep the momentum going in the category. They have been pushing Elfa Pod, which uses pre-filled e-liquid pods, for some time, and with several brands introducing such products, he speculates they are good candidates to replace disposables.
“Aquavape has been really great at doing this. They slowly introduced Elfa Pod mid last year. And we've been obviously pushing customer, saying, ‘Try this, it's reusable, you don't have to keep buying a new device. You can buy five, six different flavors. And you can just swap out the top, the little prefilled pods’,” he explains.
“We saw through their version one, and now we're on version two. But yeah, SKE has got theirs, IVG has got theirs. They've all got theirs now. And I know that eventually, they will take over the disposables.”
Last summer, when the pods were introduced, Nikesh extended his vape unit by another metre, and a whole unit is now dedicated for the prefilled pods, which they are slowly attracting everyone into.
He says IVG 2400 four-in-one is doing “amazingly well” for him, and he has been placing orders every week! IQOS, the heated tobacco brand from Philip Morris is another product that’s been selling a lot for Nikesh.
“Since they launched the new devices, Illuma, they've been doing them at ridiculous prices, £19 for a device, and then you get two packets for free, which is worth £12. So essentially, you're only paying £7 for the device,” he says.
“The reason they're doing that is because obviously, if everyone's got a device in their hand, then they need to rebuy these little sticks to go in there. So for them, it's a no-brainer.”
He thinks heated tobacco and even pre-filled pods will attract more regulations: “It's just a matter of when,” he says; but for retailers, the high margins the category offers and the volume of sales are irresistible.
“With Aquavape’s help, I've been able to just basically follow what they suggest, and whatever they suggest seems to be correct at the moment. So I've just been going with what they and trusting them,” he says.
Growing up in retail
Nikesh has retailing in his blood. His parents moved to Northampton, buying a store, in 1988, a year before he was born, and along with his elder siblings, brother Dipan and sister Bijal, he literally grew up in the store.
“We couldn't be left at home, obviously. So we'd be at the shop, working in boxes, just odd little bits and bobs, sweeping the floors and things like that,” Nikesh says. “As we got a little bit older, we are able to go on the tills. And that's when we started getting a little bit more involved.”
The family opened the Lumbertubs store in 1999, and the siblings took charge in around 2010-11, and they knew they could “definitely improve” on what they had.
They started with the small one, their first store, which was leased out to Co-op. A complete refit has seen sales more than doubling from £10,000 a week to £20,000-£25,000. A year later, they turned their attention to the larger store, which was taking around £30,000 a week.
“We did a complete refit in that shop as well, new fridges, new floor, new lighting, everything completely new. And it jumped up to about £50,000-£55,000 a week,” Nikesh reveals.
“And the magazine, Asian Trader, really helped,” he adds. “Just seeing what other people are doing. Most of the time, to be honest, we were either already doing it or planning to do it!”
The Covid-19 pandemic provided an opportunity to grow the business, both through expanding their customer base, as they saw an influx of customers who needed support in getting essentials, and also refitting areas of the store with a £110,000 refurbishment of several areas.
“I don't know where they were coming from. But there was just a huge influx of customers coming in. And we saw that as an opportunity to try and keep them. So we did another refit, extended the store a little bit more to the back and put in a few more extra fridges, extended the shelf, made them higher, so we can get more range into the store,” he explains.
“And we saw ourselves increase from £50,000-£55,000 a week to £80,000-£90,000 a week.”
That made them the second-best Costcutter store in the UK for weekly takings! And, Nikesh uses the top one, the Warwick University store, as a “target”.
“If they are doing £100,000 a week, I want to do £100,000 a week. So I will do as much as we possibly can,” he says.
Efficiency and range
Nikesh is always on the lookout for new technology to improve efficiency and, serving a very diverse population, he also experiments with different products from different countries to draw in customers.
Their extensive World Foods range caters well to the melting pot of nationalities who live locally, including Lithuanian, Romanian, Russian, Jamaican, Latvian, Moldovan, Ghanaian and Nigerian – and also for customers who are keen to try and experiment with different ingredients and cuisines.
“One product I can give you an example on is plantain. We have a lot of African and Caribbean customers, and a lot of them travel to the town centre to get yam, plantain and things like that. So we stock a huge Caribbean and African range. We started off with just plantain. That started drawing in the extra African and Caribbean community to come to our store to grab their fruit and veg rather than having to travel into town centre,” he explains.
Now the Patels’ extensive international range offers a whole aisle of products from around 15 countries, including 17-metres of ambient products and 4.5m of chilled products. And they built this range by continuously trialling different products. Many of their customers are not very proficient in English, but Nikesh’s store staff includes a lot of Europeans who can speak many languages, and they actively ask everyone what they would like to see in the store.
“Whatever it is, we get it in and sell it for a few weeks and if it's a good seller, we keep it,” Nikesh says. “If it's really, really slow, perhaps takes over a month to sell a case or something like that, then we might cut it and drop it for a different product.”
On the tech front, they recently implemented electronic shelf-edge labels. Another thing that they're doing is artificial intelligence (AI) cameras.
“These AI cameras, they search each section of the shelving, like a metre of shelving, it will concentrate on just that one fixture. And the moment a product is misplaced it notifies us and tells us this is wrong place, it needs to move back to here. If it's empty, it will tell us these products are empty on the shelves. They either need reordering or they need refilling from the back,” Nikesh explains.
The technology is provided by Chinese retail tech firm Hanshow, with Smethwick-based Avery Berkel implementing it in Nikesh’s store.
Proactive in crisis
Nikesh has an Aldi, a Lidl, a B&M and a Tesco right on his doorstep, and they are competing with their pricing as the cost-of-living crisis lingers on.
“To be honest, we've been quite proactive with the cost-of-living crisis. Before any of that even started affecting people, we looked at our basic stuff like milk, bread, potatoes and eggs, and at suppliers where we can get it as cheap as possible, and obviously sell it to the customers as cheap as possible, too,” he says.
They also increased their offers. “If we do 50 offers in a period, we've increased that to 100. We used to only have, say, one tea on offer, one coffee on offer, one biscuit on offer. Now we've got 2-3 teas on offer, 2-3 biscuits on offer. We've increased our offering to the customers in the hopes of them thinking, ‘Okay, there's more on offer here, it's a little bit cheaper than usual, more of the ranges on offer as well’, just to help them,” he adds.
Nikesh Patel
Nikesh stresses the importance of knowing what the customers need and stocking those products.
“Once you've got their wants and needs, you can tailor your shop to your area. Because after all, it's all about that. Costcutter or Booker or whoever, they can come in and say, ‘Look, these are the core lines, you must stock all these core lines’, but not all core lines always sell,” he says.
“Your shop is not catering for the whole of the UK, you're catering for your area. So you really need to know what your customers want and need. Stock the product even if it's just one customer that says to you, ‘Can you stock this?”
Once you've got to that point, Nikesh says the sales will invariably increase, and you can then focus on making the store look nicer and cleaner.
“Because that's very, very important,” he says. “The last thing you want to do is go and buy food from somewhere where they've got spillages and dust everywhere. When you are doing a refit, it's not going to do anything for the product, but you're just making it look more appealing for the customer.”
Merchandising is another area he puts a lot of emphasis on, and he shares his experience of the refit in 2012, when they outsourced it, and the difference it made.
“Usually we merchandise the shop ourselves between me, my brother and my sister. We were really good, we've been doing it for years. But that one time, we hired a company from Scotland. They were really expensive, but when they left, the shop looked so beautiful. It was just crazy. I just loved the way they left it. I wish I should have done it. I'm sure I have got it somewhere but they left it in such a good way. And I thought that is the way it has to be,” he says.
They also move things around every now and then. “So customers have to really look for whatever they want again. So they might see something that they didn't know that we stocked,” he adds.
Nikesh says it was exciting to take on the responsibility of running the store from his parents and “bring a new vision to it, make new things happen and take it further than they ever imagined”.
“We have embraced it 100 per cent and are passionate about continuing to build on the great foundations and legacy of the business established by them. We are a family unit and love what we do,” he concludes.
The UK retail sector is bracing for a challenging but opportunity-filled 2025, according to Jacqui Baker, head of retail at RSM UK. While the industry grapples with rising costs and heightened crime, advancements in artificial intelligence and a revival of the high street offer potential pathways to growth, she said.
The latest Budget delivered a tough blow to the retail sector, exacerbating existing financial pressures. Retailers, who already shoulder a significant portion of business rates and rely heavily on a large workforce, face increased costs from rising employers’ National Insurance Contributions.
“Higher costs will also eat into available funds for future pay rises, benefits or pension contributions – hitting retailers’ cashflow in the short term and employees’ remuneration in the longer term,” Baker said.
“Retailers must get creative to manage their margins and attract footfall and spend, plus think outside the box to incentivise employees if they’re to hold onto talented staff.”
On the brighter side, falling inflation and lower interest rates could ease operational costs and restore consumer confidence, potentially driving retail spending upward.
High street resurgence
Consumers’ shopping habits are evolving, with a hybrid approach blending online and in-store purchases. According to RSM UK’s Consumer Outlook, 46 per cent of consumers prefer in-store shopping for weekly purchases, compared to 29 per cent for online, but the preference shifts to 47 per cent for online shopping for monthly buys and to 29 per cent for in-store. The most important in-store aspect for consumers was ease of finding products (59%), versus convenience (37%) for online.
“Tactile shopping experiences remain an integral part of the purchase journey for shoppers, so retailers need to prioritise convenience and the opportunity for discovery to bring consumers back to the high street,” Baker noted.
The government’s initiative to auction empty shops is expected to make brick-and-mortar stores more accessible to smaller, independent retailers, further boosting high street revival, she added.
A security guard stands in the doorway of a store in the Oxford Street retail area on December 13, 2024 in London, EnglandPhoto by Leon Neal/Getty Images
Meanwhile, retail crime, exacerbated by cost-of-living pressures, remains a significant concern, with shoplifting incidents reaching record highs. From organised social media-driven thefts to fraudulent delivery claims, the methods are becoming increasingly sophisticated.
“Crime has a knock-on effect on both margins and staff morale, so while the government is cracking down on retail crime, retailers also have a part to play by investing in data to prevent and detect theft,” Baker said.
“Data is extremely powerful in minimising losses and improving the overall operational efficiency of the business.”
AI as a game-changer
Artificial intelligence is emerging as a transformative force for the retail sector. From personalised product recommendations and inventory optimisation to immersive augmented reality experiences, AI is reshaping the shopping landscape.
“AI will undoubtedly become even more sophisticated over time, creating immersive and interactive experiences that bridge the gap between online and in-store. Emerging trends include hyper-personalisation throughout the entire shopping journey, autonomous stores and checkouts, and enhanced augmented reality experiences to “try” products before buying,” she said, adding that AI will be a “transformative investment” that determines the long-term viability of retail businesses.
The Amazon Fresh store in Ealing, LondonPhoto: Amazon
As financial pressures ease, sustainability is climbing up the consumer agenda. RSM’s Consumer Outlook found 46 per cent would pay more for products that are sustainably sourced, up from 28 per cent last year; while 44 per cent would pay more for products with environmentally friendly packaging, compared to 36 per cent last year.
“However, ESG concerns vary depending on age and income, holding greater importance among high earners and millennials. With financial pressures expected to continue easing next year, we anticipate a renewal of sustainability and environmentally conscious spending habits,” Baker noted.
“Retailers ought to tap into this by understanding the preferences of different demographics and most importantly, their target market.”
Southend-on-Sea City Council officials have secured food condemnation orders from Chelmsford Magistrates Court, resulting in the seizure and destruction of 1,100 unauthorised soft drinks.
The condemned drinks, including Mountain Dew, 7-UP, Mirinda, and G Fuel energy drinks, were found during routine inspections of food businesses across Southend by the council’s environmental health officers.
Council said these products contained either banned additives like Calcium Disodium EDTA or unauthorised novel ingredients such as Potassium Beta-hydroxybutyrate.
Calcium Disodium EDTA has been linked to potential reproductive and developmental effects and may contribute to colon cancer, according to some studies. Potassium Beta-hydroxybutyrate has not undergone safety assessments, making its inclusion in food products unlawful.
Independent analysis certified that the drinks failed to meet UK food safety standards. Magistrates ordered their destruction and ruled that the council's costs, expected to total close to £2,000, be recovered from the businesses involved.
“These products, clearly marketed towards children, contain banned or unauthorised ingredients. Southend-on-Sea City Council will always take action to protect the public, using enforcement powers to ensure unsafe products are removed from sale,” Cllr Kevin Robinson, cabinet member for regeneration, major projects, and regulatory services, said.
“As Christmas approaches, we hope this sends a strong message to businesses importing or selling such products: they risk significant costs and possible prosecution.”
The council urged residents to check labels when purchasing imported sweets and drinks, ensuring they include English-language details and a UK importer's address.
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A customer browses clothes inside Charity Super.Mkt at Brent Cross Shopping centre in north London on, December 17, 2024
Bursting with customers one afternoon the week before Christmas, a second-hand charity shop in London's Marylebone High Street looked even busier than the upscale retailers surrounding it.
One man grabbed two puzzle sets and a giant plush toy as a present for friends, another picked out a notebook for his wife.
“Since the end of September, we've seen a huge uplift in people coming to our shops and shopping pre-loved,” said Ollie Mead, who oversees the shop displays - currently glittering with Christmas decorations - for Oxfam charity stores around London.
At the chain of second-hand stores run by the British charity, shoppers can find used, or "pre-loved", toys, books, bric-a-brac and clothes for a fraction of the price of new items.
Popular for personal shopping, charity stores and online second-hand retailers are seeing an unlikely surge in interest for Christmas gifts, a time of year often criticised for promoting consumerism and generating waste.
A report last month by second-hand retail platform Vinted and consultants RetailEconomics found UK customers were set to spend £2 billion on second-hand Christmas gifts this year, around 10 per cent of the £20 billion Christmas gift market.
A woman browses some of the Christmas gift ideas in a store on December 13, 2024 in London, England. Photo by Leon Neal/Getty Images
In an Oxfam survey last year, 33 per cent were going to buy second-hand gifts for Christmas, up from 25 percent in 2021.
“This shift is evident on Vinted,” Adam Jay, Vinted's marketplace CEO, told AFP.
“We've observed an increase in UK members searching for 'gift' between October and December compared to the same period last year.”
According to Mead, who has gifted second-hand items for the last three Christmas seasons, sustainability concerns and cost-of-living pressures are “huge factors”.
Skimming the racks at the central London store, doctor Ed Burdett found a keychain and notebook for his wife.
“We're saving up at the moment, and she likes to give things another life. So it'll be the perfect thing for her,” Burdett, 50, told AFP.
“It's nice to spend less, and to know that it goes to a good place rather than to a high street shop.”
'Quirky, weird
Wayne Hemingway, designer and co-founder of Charity Super.Mkt, a brand which aims to put charity shops in empty shopping centres and high street spaces, has himself given second-hand Christmas gifts for “many, many years”.
“When I first started doing it, it was classed as quirky and weird,” he said, adding it was now going more “mainstream”.
Similarly, when he first started selling second-hand clothes over 40 years ago, “at Christmas your sales always nosedive(d) because everybody wanted new”.
Now, however, “we are seeing an increase at Christmas sales just like a new shop would”, Hemingway told AFP.
“Last weekend sales were crazy, the shop was mobbed,” he said, adding all his stores had seen a 20-percent higher than expected rise in sales in the weeks before Christmas.
“Things are changing for the better... It's gone from second-hand not being what you do at Christmas, to part of what you do.”
Young people are driving the trend by making more conscious fashion choices, and with a commitment to a “circular economy” and to “the idea of giving back (in) a society that is being more generous and fair,” he said.
At the store till, 56-year-old Jennifer Odibo was unconvinced.
Buying herself a striking orange jacket, she said she “loves vintage”.
But for most people, she confessed she would not get a used gift. “Christmas is special, it needs to be something they would cherish, something new,” said Odibo.
“For Christmas, I'll go and buy something nice, either at Selfridges or Fenwick,” she added, listing two iconic British department stores.
Hemingway conceded some shoppers “feel that people expect something new” at Christmas.
“We're on a journey. The world is on a journey, but it's got a long way to go,” he added.
According to Tetyana Solovey, a sociology researcher at the University of Manchester, “for some people, it could be a bit weird to celebrate it (Christmas) with reusing.”
“But it could be a shift in consciousness if we might be able to celebrate the new year by giving a second life to something,” Solovey told AFP.
“That could be a very sustainable approach to Christmas, which I think is quite wonderful.”
Lancashire Mind’s 11th Mental Elf fun run was its biggest and best yet – a sell-out event with more than 400 people running and walking in aid of the mental charity, plus dozens more volunteering to make the day a huge success.
The winter sun shone on Worden Park in Leyland as families gathered for either a 5K course, a 2K run, or a Challenge Yours’Elf distance which saw many people running 10K with the usual running gear replaced with jazzy elf leggings, tinsel and Christmas hats.
And now the pennies have been counted, Lancashire Mind has announced that the event raised a fantastic £17,000.
This amount of money allows Lancashire Mind to deliver, for example, its 10-week Bounce Forward resilience programme in eight schools, reaching more than 240 children with skills and strategies that they can carry with them throughout their lives, making them more likely to ‘bounce forward’ through tough times.
The event was headline sponsored by SPAR for a third year through its association with James Hall & Co. Ltd, SPAR UK’s primary retailer, wholesaler, and distributor for the North of England.
“On behalf of the entire team at Lancashire Mind, we want to extend a heartfelt thank you to the 400+ incredible participants who joined us for Mental Elf 2024!” said Organiser Nicola Tomkins, Community and Events Fundraiser at Lancashire Mind.
“Your support, energy and commitment to raising awareness for mental health makes all the difference. Together, we've taken another important step towards breaking the stigma around mental health and promoting wellbeing for all in our community. We couldn't have done it without you!”
Worden Hall became the hub of the event where people could enjoy music from the Worldwise Samba Drummers and BBC stars Jasmine and Gabriella T, plus lots of family friendly activities and a chance to meet Father Christmas. Pets also got in on the act in the best dressed dog competition.
Lancashire Mind CEO David Dunwell said: “It was heart-warming day, full of community spirit and festive cheer, but with a serious aim to raise funds for mental health.
“We are so grateful to everyone who bought a ticket and fundraised or donated to help us smash our target. The money raised goes directly to supporting Lancashire Mind’s life-changing mental health services. These funds help provide wellbeing coaching, support groups, and educational programmes to individuals and families in need of mental health support in our community.”
The concept of Mental Elf was created by Lancashire Mind and news of the event has spread right across the country in recent years, with around 40 other local Mind charities hosting a similar event in 2024.
Lancashire schools were also encouraged to host their own Mental Elf-themed event this year, whether that was a run, bake sale or dress up day, and raised more than £1,000 in total.
Philippa Harrington, Marketing Manager at James Hall & Co. Ltd, said: “There was a lovely festive feel in the air at Mental Elf and we were delighted to see even more individuals, families, and canine companions taking part in its new home of Worden Park.
“We are also very pleased to see the uptake that Mental Elf has had in schools, and congratulations go to the Lancashire Mind team for taking it to new participants and for raising a fantastic amount of money for an important cause.”
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A woman walks past a window display promoting an ongoing sale, on December 13, 2024 in London, England.
UK retail sales rose less than expected in the runup to Christmas, according to official data Friday that deals a fresh blow to government hopes of growing the economy.
Separate figures revealed a temporary reprieve for prime minister Keir Starmer, however, as public borrowing fell sharply in November.
The updates follow news this week of higher inflation in Britain - an outcome that caused the Bank of England on Thursday to leave interest rates unchanged.
Retail sales by volume grew 0.2 per cent in November after a drop of 0.7 per cent in October, the Office for National Statistics said Friday.
That was less than analysts' consensus for a 0.5-percent gain.
"It is critical delayed spending materialises this Christmas to mitigate the poor start to retail's all-important festive season," noted Nicholas Found, senior consultant at Retail Economics.
"However, cautiousness lingers, slowing momentum in the economy. Households continue to adjust to higher prices (and) elevated interest rates."
He added that consumers were focused on buying "carefully timed promotions and essentials, while deferring bigger purchases".
The ONS reported that supermarkets benefited from higher food sales.
"Clothing stores sales dipped sharply once again, as retailers reported tough trading conditions," said Hannah Finselbach, senior statistician at the ONS.
Retail sales rose 0.2% in November 2024, following a fall of 0.7% in October 2024.
Growth in supermarkets and other non-food stores was partly offset by a fall in clothing retailers.
The Labour government's net borrowing meanwhile dropped to £11.2 billion last month, the lowest November figure in three years on higher tax receipts and lower debt-interest, the ONS added.
The figure had been £18.2 billion in October.
"Borrowing remains subject to upside risks... due to sticky interest rates, driven by markets repricing for fewer cuts in 2025," forecast Elliott Jordan-Doak, senior UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
Jacqui Baker, head of retail at RSM UK and chair of ICAEW’s Retail Group, commented that the later than usual Black Friday weekend meant November’s retail sales figures saw only a slight uptick as cost-conscious consumers held off to bag a bargain.
“Despite many retailers launching Black Friday offers early, November trade got off to a slow start which dragged on for most of the month. This was driven by clothing which fell to its lowest level since January 2022. The only saving grace was half-term and Halloween spending helped to slightly offset disappointing sales throughout November,” Baker said.
“As consumer confidence continues to build and shoppers return to the high street, this should translate into more retail spending next year. However, there are big challenges coming down the track for the sector, so retailers will be banking on a consumer-led recovery to come to fruition so they can combat a surge in costs.”
Thomas Pugh, economist at RSM UK, added: “The tick up in retail sales volumes in November suggests that the stagnation which has gripped the UK economy since the summer continued into the final months of the year.
“While the recent strong pay growth numbers may make the Bank of England uncomfortable, it means that real incomes are growing at just under 3 per cent, which suggests consumer spending should gradually rise next year. However, consumers remain extremely cautious. The very sharp drop in clothing sales in particular could suggest that consumers are cutting back on non-essential purchases.
“We still expect a rise in consumer spending next year, due to strong wage growth and a gradual decline in the saving rate, to help drive an acceleration in GDP growth. But the risks are clearly building that cautious consumers choose to save rather than spend increases in income, raising the risk of weaker growth continuing through the first half of next year.”