Crippled by inadequate remuneration, rising costs, and a strained relationship with their corporate overseers, local Post Office branches seem to be in crisis, bringing forth an urgent need for a wholesome systemic change.
While the fallout from the Horizon scandal lingers, relationship between sub postmasters and the Post Office is seemingly on a downhill and continues to remain somewhat toxic.
The mistrust and skepticism among sub post masters towards Post Office run high, as found by Asian Trader, often bordering into a sense of being intimidated.
According to ACS Local Shop Report 2024, 20 per cent of about 50,387 convenience stores in the UK provide Post Office services. In many communities, these branches are often the sole providers of essential banking as well.
While it is often argued that having a Post Office branch boosts retail footfall, sub post masters, in candid conversations with Asian Trader, paint a starkly different picture of the grim reality they face.
Once touted as vital hubs of community life and profitable assets for retailers, local Post Office branches now find themselves as loss-making appendages.
For sub postmaster Jerry Brown, who has been running a Suffolk branch for 17 years, the footfall generated by his branch amounts to little more than "the dirt that falls off people's shoes” and his branch, at First Class Greetings and Plum Green in Hadleigh, costs him £500 monthly.
This sentiment is echoed by others too, including convenience store retailer Benedict Selvaratnam, who has been running a Post Office in Croydon’s Freshfield Market for the past four years.
Despite being a busy branch, the remuneration received from Post Office for the services translates to £6 an hour, far below minimum wage. The financial model, according to the retailer, fails to compensate for the significant responsibility that sub postmasters shoulder.
His frustration is compounded by the Post Office clientele that comes in—most in a hurry, often irate, and sometimes abusive.
He said, “We are a busy post office yet it does not generate a profit. It's actually a cost to the business. But overall, because it brings a football in, that's what we hope and bank upon.
Retailer Benedict Selvaratnam
“I love running the Post Office branch and determined to continue providing the services. However, the amount of responsibility that we shoulder, we are not compensated enough for that.”
Elsewhere in Northamptonshire, sub post master and retailer Vidur Pandya finds himself in a similar predicament. While his unique position as the sole Post Office in the area results in footfall for the retail side, the remuneration does not cover even the minimum wage costs.
Echoing the frustration of sub post masters, the National Federation of Sub Postmasters (NFSP) delivers a damning indictment of the Post Office network’s broken promises.
Calum Greenhow - Chief Executive Officer of NFSP, told Asian Trader, “The anecdotal evidence shows that owning a post office doesn't necessarily make money. Actually, it's the retail side that's actually subsidising the post office branches.”
“In fact, there is evidence that shows that if you've got a strong retail that's actually a benefit to the post office, which is the exact opposite to what Post Office tends to claim.”
The root of the problem lies in the Network Transformation Programme (NTP) introduced in 2012 that saw sub-postmasters paid per transaction instead of receiving a fixed salary.
Under NTP, remuneration rates for local Post Office Branches (as seen by Asian Trader) have been woefully inadequate. Amounts such as 6.00p per £1 sales of First Class stamp sales, a mere 31.00p per completed transaction for Home Shopping Returns, and just 23p per Completed Transaction in Auto Cash Withdrawals (Personal) fail to reflect the critical role the local branches play.
The subsequent removal of profitable government services and increased use of online services have left sub post masters clinging to a shrinking portfolio of less fruitful offerings.
Greenhow revealed, “In 2011, we were being led to believe by government that it was going to lead to a new profitable system. The figure of 300 million pounds was thrown around, and also that we, as investors in the network, would actually have ownership in the business.”
Today, the optimism of that era has soured into disillusionment.
“There is this feeling amongst sub postmasters today of being manipulated about network transformation plan in 2011. It absolutely wasn't fair, because what was sold to us back then and reality is something different,” Greenhow lamented, revealing bare the deep structural issues plaguing the Post Office network.
Toxic Relationship?
The NFSP points to survey data showing declining trust among current sub postmasters towards Post Office. Many sub postmasters feel their concerns are ignored, and their investments in the network go unacknowledged. Some even fear to speak up openly.
Greenhow pointed out, “The level of trust between the two has gone down. Despite everything that the post office is saying that it is doing, it is clearly not making any difference. Their efforts feel like a PR exercise, rather than something substantial or tangible.”
To fill the void, NFSP is coming up with an “oversight committee” to make some space for sub post masters in the system and give them a voice.
Greenhow said, “We must have a better say, we want to work towards mutualisation, because only then sub postmasters will be in a situation where they can really challenge the post office and the government to do better for everyone.”
Once again, Post Office has set out an ambitious five-year Transformation Plan to deliver a “New Deal for Postmasters” that significantly increases their total annual income through revenue sharing and strengthens their role in the direction of the organisation.
Calum Greenhow - Chief Executive Officer of National Federation of Sub Postmasters
The “New Deal for Postmasters” , announced on Nov 13, follows a Strategic Review initiated by Post Office Chair Nigel Railton in May. The Transformation Plan sets out an ambition to deliver a £250 million boost to postmasters’ income by 2030. These improvements to remuneration are subject to funding discussions with the government.
Alongside this, the Post Office is establishing a new Postmaster Panel as well as a new Consultative Council.
However, as the NFSP chief and other sub post masters pointed out, much remains uncertain and there are no details yet. For many, these commitments are viewed skeptically, given the Post Office’s historical track record.
Greenhow acknowledges improvements in leadership but warns of potential pitfalls.
“What if they again come up with something that doesn’t suit the Postmasters? That’s the big problem,” Greenhow said.
Lingering Shadow of Horizon
Be it remuneration or dismissive attitude, the relationship between sub postmasters and the Post Office corporate leadership is sour. The lingering scars of the Horizon scandal have only compounded this situation.
For Brown (also a member of Voice of the Postmaster), the psychological toll of unexplained financial shortfalls under Horizon was profound. Describing the Post Office senior executives as “Post Office leeches”, he stated how the scandal has not only caused financial losses but eroded trust in the organisation’s leadership forever.
Brown told Asian Trader, “I believe every sub postmaster suffered some losses under Horizon. We certainly experienced losses over a number of years that we just covered on our own because at the time we had no choice.
“But what still gives me chills is that it could have easily been a £50,000 shortfall instead of a £500 one. These shortfalls, no matter how small, had psychological consequences as we used to get stressed out to find where we made a mistake, even started doubting our staff.”
Greenhow too thanks his stars that he was not caught in the Horizon scandal despite running a branch for over 29 years.
He said, “In truth, there is absolutely nothing that I have done differently as compared to the victims.”
Sub post master Jerry Brown
For current sub postmasters like Selvaratnam, knowing the details of the scandal -Post Office’s attitude towards sub postmasters’ complaints of shortfalls and later the legal actions bestowed upon them- is nerve wracking.
He said, “For us current sub postmasters, the ITV drama was really an eye opener. It really made us think twice about what we are doing daily. We also deal with a lot of cash. We just hope that such a callous miscarriage of justice never happens again.”
NFSP meanwhile underscores the long history of Post Office malfeasance, noting before Horizon, there were other faulty systems that also led to prosecutions, suggesting that prosecution regimes against sub postmasters date back over three decades.
Greenhow revealed, “There are two other programs that the post office provided before Horizon that were faulty. Recent KROLL report shows that there were bugs, defects and errors within Capture, a pre-Horizon system.
“There was another one called ECCO+ that was in operation between 1992 to 1999 and within that period. I have learned, (just in the last few days) that post office undertook 334 prosecutions over that eight year period- that's equivalent to what went on in the Horizon years.
“So we're talking about a prosecution regime over a 32-year period, not a 25-year period.”
Clearly, the Horizon scandal was not an isolated incident but part of a broader pattern of neglect, exploitative and dismissive attitude of the Post Office. Sadly, it is the same attitude that led to prosecution of hundreds of sub post masters, leading to bankruptcy of many, broken families, destroyed reputation and even suicides.
What is disturbing here is the attitude somewhat still remains the same and seemingly not much has changed.
Glimmer of hope?
Some sub postmasters, like Brown and Pandya, express cautious optimism in the leadership of Railton and Brocklehurst, whose relatable approach and apparent commitment to reform have sparked hope for change.
Meanwhile, Post Office area managers are also commended for “humanising” the corporate relationship, providing a much-needed bridge between the top-level management and those on the ground.
“What I see in the forums is that the approach of senior management is changing, albeit very slowly,” observes Pandya, calling for same remuneration rates for all kinds of branches.
Despite the tension and conflicts within the system, the bond between sub postmasters and their communities continues to remain steadfast.
Retailer Vidur Pandya
As Greenhow explained, “There might be a negative feeling against post office as a corporate but there's a real affinity and a real connection between the local postmaster and the community. That relationship has remained very strong.”
What Post Office network needs to comprehensive overall reform and shift in mindset.
As Selvaratnam said, "The government and the post office have got to value and support local branches as essential community assets in such a way that the branches are protected and can continue to provide key services.
“Just because they got us on a commission should not mean they can get away with underpaying us. We are offering services nine to six 365 days a year and we are paid peanuts. This needs to be changed.”
As Greenhow aptly states, “We are talking about the fate of generational family businesses here. The Post Office must treat sub postmasters as partners, respecting their investment and hard work.”
It is clear that the sub postmasters are the backbone of Post Office network and many communities too, providing essential services despite the odds stacked against them.
Yet, the pressing question that remains here is how long can sub postmasters' resilience can sustain a flawed model? And, is it fair?
Britain's annual inflation rate unexpectedly fell to 2.5 per cent last month, official data showed Wednesday, easing some pressure on the Labour government faced with economic unrest.
Analysts had forecast no change in the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) from the 2.6 percent figure in November.
The latest reading from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) comes one day after chancellor Rachel Reeves was forced to defend the government's handling of the economy following a recent sharp runup in state borrowing costs and a hefty drop in the pound.
"Inflation eased very slightly as hotel prices dipped" after rising in December 2023, noted Grant Fitzner, chief ONS economist.
"The cost of tobacco was another downward driver, as prices increased" less than a year earlier, he added.
"This was partly offset by the cost of fuel and also second-hand cars, which saw their first annual growth since July 2023," Fitzner said in the release.
Wednesday's data showed also that on a monthly basis, CPI rose 0.3 percent in December, down from 0.4 percent a year earlier.
The ONS added that core CPI - excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco - increased by 3.2 percent in the 12 months to December, down from 3.5 percent in November.
Reeves told parliament Tuesday that the government needed to "go further and faster" in its bid to kickstart economic growth in the face of UK markets turmoil.
The chancellor of the exchequer, in the role for just over six months following Labour's election win, faced a renewed call to resign by the main opposition Conservative party during a heated exchange.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer has given his full backing to Reeves.
UK 10-year bond yields, a key indicator of market confidence, reached last week the highest level since the 2008 global financial crisis.
That puts fiscal pressure on the government and could force it to cut spending and further hike taxes.
Reeves' maiden budget in October included tax rises for businesses - a decision blamed for Britain struggling to grow its economy in recent months.
Britain's big retailers, including Tesco, Sainsbury's, M&S and Next, say they are stepping up their drive for efficiency through automation and other measures, to limit the impact of rising costs on the prices they charge their customers.
As the UK economy struggles to grow, the new Labour government's solution is a hike in employer taxes to raise money for investment in infrastructure and public services, which has prompted criticism from the business community.
Retailers have said the increased social security payments, a rise in the national minimum wage, packaging levies and higher business rates - all coming in April - will cost the sector £7 billion a year.
Concerns of the wider economic impact sent retail share prices sharply lower this week and drove up government borrowing costs.
In the retail sector, larger players have more scope to adapt and are cushioned by previous healthy profits, but analysts have said smaller players could find themselves under severe pressure.
Clothing retailer Next said it faced a £67 million increase in wage costs in its year to end-January 2026, but still forecast profit growth.
It reckons it can offset the higher wage bill with measures including a 1 per cent increase in prices that it said was "unwelcome, but still lower than UK general inflation". It can also increase operational efficiencies in its warehouses, distribution network and stores, the company said.
CEO Simon Wolfson said more automation was inevitable across the sector.
"With any mechanisation project you're always looking at a pay-back on it - you're saying 'what's the saving versus the cost of the mechanisation, or AI or software'," he told Reuters.
"If the price of the mechanisation doesn't go up, but the price of the labour it saves does go up, it's going to mean that more projects can be justified."
More robots?
Baker and food-to-go chain Greggs last year opened a highly automated production line at its Newcastle, northeast England, site, meaning it can make up to 4 million more steak bakes and other products each week from its current 10 million.
Tesco, Britain's biggest supermarket, is also increasing automation and will open a robotic chilled distribution centre in Aylesford, southeast England, this year.
No. 2 grocer Sainsbury's is encouraging more shoppers to use its SmartShop handheld self-scanning technology.
Even though Tesco faces a £250m annual hit from the hike in employer national insurance contributions alone, CEO Ken Murphy said it would cope.
Having navigated the Covid pandemic, supply chain disruption and commodity and energy inflation, he said Tesco was used to dealing with rising costs by finding savings elsewhere.
Finance chief Imran Nawaz said Tesco's "Save to Invest" programme was on track to deliver £500m of efficiency savings in its year to February 2025, having delivered £640m in 2023/24.
"As we look ahead it's clear it's going to be another year where we'll need to do a stellar job," Nawaz said, singling out savings from better buying by Tesco's procurement organisation, in logistics, in freight, and in cutting waste.
Sainsbury's, facing an additional £140m national insurance headwind, is similarly targeting £1bn of cost savings by March 2027.
Clothing and food retailer M&S, facing £120m of extra wage costs, said it aimed to pass on "as little as possible" to consumers.
One of the biggest names on the British high street, the 141-year-old retailer is in the middle of a successful turnaround programme and believes it can continue to grind out further savings, modernising its distribution and supply chain.
"My summary is: big job, but lots in our control and we've got to be ruthlessly focused on costs in these next 12 months," CEO Stuart Machin said.
"We talk a lot about volume growth, because the more we sell, the more that offsets some of these cost pressures."
Ian Lance, fund manager at Redwheel, one of M&S's biggest investors, said the firm was likely to be able to weather the cost challenges better than most. "They have an exceptionally capable management team and a product offering which is clearly resonating with consumers for its quality and value," he said.
But for many smaller players raising prices is the only option.
A British Chambers of Commerce survey of 4,800 businesses, mostly with fewer than 250 staff, found 55 per cent planned price increases - potentially hampering the fight to contain inflation and grow the economy.
And for some, more drastic action may be required.
British discount retailer Shoe Zone has said the additional costs of the budget meant some stores had become unviable and would be closed.
Food price inflation remained stable last month though experts are warning that with a series of price pressures on the horizon, shop price deflation is likely to become a thing of the past.
According to figures released by British Retail Consortium (BRC) on Thursday (9), shop price deflation was 1.0 per cent in December, down from deflation of 0.6 per cent in the previous month. This is below the three-month average rate of -0.8 per cent. Shop price annual growth remained at its lowest rate since August 2021.
Non-Food remained in deflation at -2.4 per cent in December.
Food inflation was unchanged at 1.8 per cent in December. This is in line with the three-month average rate of 1.8 per cent. The annual rate has eased considerably since the start of the year and inflation remained at its lowest rate since December 2021.
Fresh Food inflation was unchanged in December, at 1.2 per cent. This is slightly above the three-month average rate of 1.1 per cent. Inflation was its lowest since November 2021.
Ambient Food inflation edged up to 2.8 per cent in December, from 2.7 per cent in November. This is in line with the three-month average rate of 2.8 per cent and remained at its lowest since February 2022.
Commenting on the figures, Helen Dickinson, Chief Executive of the BRC, said, “Retailers discounted heavily for Black Friday this year as they attempted to make up for weaker sales earlier in the year.
"However, the later Black Friday timing brought many of the non-food discounts into the measurement period, making non-food prices look more deflationary than the underlying trend. With food inflation bottoming out at 1.8 per cent, and many price pressures on the horizon, shop price deflation is likely to become a thing of the past.
“As retailers battle the £7 billion of increased costs in 2025 from the Budget, including higher employer NI, National Living Wage, and new packaging levies, there is little hope of prices going anywhere but up.
"Modelling by the BRC and retail CFOs suggest food prices will rise by an average of 4.2 per cent in the latter half of the year, while Non-food will return firmly to inflation.
"Government can still take steps to mitigate these price pressures, and it must ensure that its proposed reforms to business rates do not result in any stores paying more in rates than they do already.”
Mike Watkins, Head of Retailer and Business Insight, NielsenIQ, added, “During December, shoppers benefited from both lower inflation than last year and bigger discounts as both food and non-food retailers were keen to drive sales after a slow start to the quarter.
"However, higher household costs are unlikely to dissipate anytime soon so retailers will need to carefully manage any inflationary pressure in the months ahead.”
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People walk pass a Christmas tree as they exit a store in Manchester, northern England on December 16, 2024.
Photo by Paul ELLIS / AFP) (Photo by PAUL ELLIS/AFP via Getty Images
Shares in Britain's Marks & Spencer and other retailers fell on Thursday, with £2 billion ($2.45 billion) wiped off the sector, as concern about ebbing consumer confidence and economic weakness overshadowed healthy Christmas trading.
Retailers, already facing weak consumer sentiment, are bracing for higher costs from April, when employer taxes and the minimum wage are set to rise.
The economic outlook has been clouded by a leap in Britain's government borrowing costs in recent days that adds to pressure on government finances and has prompted analyst warnings that further tax rises could be needed.
With inflation also forecast to tick up, retailers anticipate a tough year.
"There is that cautious customer confidence out there," M&S chief executive Stuart Machin told reporters, after announcing the group had delivered the highest food sales over the lucrative Christmas period on the UK high street.
M&S reported above-expectations growth of 8.9 per cent in food sales and 1.9 per cent in clothing, home and beauty sales, but the retailer's shares fell 6.5 per cent. Tesco, the country's biggest supermarket group, posted a 4.1 per cent rise in sales, while its shares traded down 1.3 per cent.
"The year ahead won't be all smooth sailing for the retail giants, as the sector gears up to battle imminent tax hikes," Hargreaves Lansdown equity analyst Matt Britzman said.
While those two retailers were helped by booming grocery sales, other categories struggled.
Growth at food-on-the-go specialist Greggs slowed in the final months of 2024 and discounter B&M posted a fall in underlying sales of 2.8 per cent, sending the stocks down by 10 per cent and 12 per cent respectively.
While retailers fell, Britain's globally focused blue-chip index. The FTSE traded higher at 0.5 per cent.
Challenges continue
Greggs Chief Executive Roisin Currie said consumers were cautious about spending.
"It's been a challenging second half in 2024. I think you have to make some assumptions that that continues in 2025," she told Reuters.
Greggs had performed well in recent years as its value sausage rolls and steak bakes gained popularity, but its underlying sales growth fell to 2.5 per cent in the final quarter of 2024, down from five per cent in the previous period.
Next, the UK's biggest clothing retailer by market capitalisation, on Tuesday warned sales growth would slow in its 2025/26 year as the impact of the government's tax hike begins to hit employment levels and raise prices.
Ken Murphy, the boss of Tesco, was more sanguine.
Although consumers who "really celebrated over Christmas" would be more value-focused in January, that was always the case at the beginning of the year, he said.
After the pandemic, a supply chain crisis, and high levels of commodity and energy inflation, Murphy said Tesco, which is forecasting 250 million pounds of additional costs from the employer tax hikes, was used to handling rising costs.
The implementation of new age-of-sale regulations under the Tobacco and Vapes Bill could present significant hurdles for retailers, according to Inga Becker-Hansen, policy adviser for retail products at the British Retail Consortium (BRC).
Speaking before a House of Commons committee on Tuesday, Becker-Hansen outlined the complexities of enforcing a rolling age limit for tobacco and vape products, as well as concerns about staff training, licensing schemes, and advertising restrictions.
One of the central issues identified by Becker-Hansen is the rolling age limit, a key provision aimed at creating a “smoke-free generation.” She noted that while current rules are straightforward - with a fixed age of sale for tobacco and alcohol products - the rolling age limit could introduce operational difficulties.
“At this point, it is quite identifiable, with those under the regulation being 15,” she explained. “But in 30 years’ time, if you have someone who is 45 versus 44 from the date of January 2009, it may lead to ID for each sale of a given product. This will eventually lead to potential issues.”
Becker-Hansen highlighted that points of sale are often flashpoints for violence and abuse against retail workers, raising concerns about the practical implementation of the regulations. “It is a real concern for retailers that that could be an issue in the future,” she said.
To mitigate these challenges, the BRC is advocating for the use of digital ID systems, which are already being promoted by the Department for Business and Trade for alcohol sales. “A digital ID could possibly make things easier,” she suggested, adding that it could streamline age verification processes for both retailers and consumers.
Licensing scheme
The introduction of a licensing scheme for tobacco and vape products also drew attention, particularly regarding its impact on smaller retailers. Becker-Hansen expressed concerns about the administrative and financial burdens such a scheme could impose.
“Smaller retailers may not have as much capacity with regard to the licensing scheme,” she noted. “It is quite difficult to comment on it at this point, because we do not know the full detail.”
“We would also like to highlight that if the licensing scheme were to follow something such as the tobacco licensing scheme—the idea that licensing authorities could approve or deny certain applications—that could affect long-standing, established, compliant retailers, and that could lead to a loss of revenue for them,” she added.
Additionally, she warned against requiring individual premises licenses for multi-site retailers, citing potential inconsistencies that could affect customer confidence. “If individual licenses had to be applied for, that could lead to divergence across a retail brand, and that affects your overall public retail image for customers,” she explained.
She reiterated the need for clear guidelines and consistent regulations, suggesting that a unified licensing scheme bundling tobacco, alcohol, and vapes could reduce costs and complexity.
“Adding on an additional licensing scheme with additional costs and a separate administrative system makes it more difficult for retailers to handle those things at the same time, particularly smaller retailers and independents,” she said.
“We would also encourage alignment across the regulations in terms of new regulations coming through, such as secondary legislation on the licensing scheme,” she said, calling for ongoing consultation with the industry.
Advertising and recycling challenges
Restrictions on the advertisement, display, and flavours of e-cigarettes also present challenges for retailers, Becker-Hansen revealed.
“Some of the challenges with the restrictions on advertising will be at the point of sale of products for some retailers,” she said.
She also highlighted concerns about how recycling schemes for vapes could be implemented - if they cannot be advertised under the new restrictions.
A robust public awareness campaign is essential to the successful implementation of the Bill, Becker-Hansen argued. “A public awareness campaign would hopefully reduce any potential violence against or abuse of retail workers,” she said.
The Tobacco and Vapes bill is currently at the committee stage in the House of Commons. Witnesses who provided evidence on Tuesday included chief medical officers for the four nations, along with the representatives from health charities, trading standards experts, academic experts and representatives from Royal Colleges.