Shopper footfall received a welcome boost as many consumers hit the January sales in their local community, shows recent data, bringing a welcome news for high streets following a particularly difficult Golden Quarter to end 2024.
According to BRC-Sensormatic data released today (7), total UK footfall increased by 6.6 per cent in January (YoY), up from -2.2 per cent in December.
High Street footfall increased by 4.5 per cent in January (YoY), up from -2.7 per cent in December while retail park footfall increased by 7.9 per cent in January (YoY).
Shopping Centre footfall increased by 7.4 per cent in January (YoY), up from -3.3 per cent in December.
Footfall increased year-on-year in all four UK nations, with Wales improving by 8.5 per cent, England by 7.4 per cent, Northern Ireland by 3.5 per cent, while Scotland improved by 1.0 per cent.
Helen Dickinson, Chief Executive of the British Retail Consortium, said, "Shopper footfall received a welcome boost in January following a disappointing festive period.
"Store visits increased substantially in the first week of the month as many consumers hit the January sales in their local community, with shopping centres faring particularly well.
"Despite snowy weather and Storm Eowyn causing disruption in some areas, footfall was still positive across major UK cities over the whole month.
"Improved shopper traffic is welcome news for high streets following a particularly difficult ‘Golden Quarter’ to end 2024, and low consumer sentiment to start the year.
"Retailers want to invest more in stores and staff to enhance the shopping experience for customers and help to grow the economy, but the swathe of additional costs from April will limit investment and lead to job losses and higher prices at the tills. To drive growth in communities across the country, the government must ensure costs are limited in other areas.
"This can be done by delaying packaging taxes and ensuring that business rates reform leaves no shop paying more than they currently do."
Andy Sumpter, Retail Consultant EMEA for Sensormatic, commented, "After a dreary December, retailers will welcome January’s footfall jump.
"The uptick was boosted by a very strong Week 1, helped in part by New Year’s Day falling on a Wednesday, which may have prompted ambient store traffic as consumers bolted on additional days of leave, as well as retailers extending post-Christmas discounting well into January.
"Not even the significant disruption from Storm Eowyn was enough to dampen overall footfall performance. While welcome, after months of erratic and constrained footfall, the jury’s out as to whether January’s store performance signals the start of a sustained High Street revival or if it will be a flash in the pan come February.
"And, even if shopper traffic recovery has finally turned a corner, the challenge for retailers will be solving the next conundrum; how they balance enhanced footfall – which requires optimised store staffing to convert into sales – and the significant rises to labour costs borne out of the Budget on the one hand, with consumer appetite for discounts - a long-term margin-eroder - on the other, which will not be an easy circle to square."
Another report released on Thursday (6) stated that high streets need to optimise for midweek office workers as Brits return to office.
This marks the first annual increase in January footfall since 2016 (+1.2 per cent), outside of the pandemic period, suggesting that a stronger return to office work is driving retail visits as businesses push employees back to in-person work.
Footfall in February remained somewhat stable, notes a recent report, showing a considerable rise observed after the post-Christmas lull with Valentine's Day emerging as the key contributor.
MRI Software’s latest retail footfall data for February revealed a minor dip of -0.3 per cent compared to February 2024 across all UK retail destinations, driven by a -1.5 per cent decline in high street activity.
This annual fall reflects historical trends for February but may have been compounded this year by a particularly severe flu season, ongoing travel disruptions, and the arrival of Storm Herminia; all of which created further obstacles in driving retail and office-based footfall.
Shopping centres and retail parks bucked the trend recording rises of +0.2 per cent and +1.9 per cent, respectively, and continues to reinforce the benefits of enclosed retail destinations.
Despite these challenges, February’s month-on-month footfall provided welcome relief.
Total footfall rose by +7.3 per cent from January as the retail sector moved past the traditional post-Christmas lull.
Key events including the February half-term holiday provided a boost for physical retail destinations, particularly shopping centres and high streets where footfall jumped by +9 per cent and +11.6 per cent, respectively, from the previous week.
Valentine's Day was also another key contributor as footfall rose by +22.3 per cent in all UK retail destinations on this day alone compared to the week before; this was led by a +27.1 per cent rise in high streets, a +15.4 per cent uplift in retail parks, and +18.9 per cent in shopping centres.
Year on year, retail park growth was particularly strong from 5pm-11pm with footfall rising by +20.4 per cent in comparison to the same time period on Valentine's Day last year.
Looking ahead, there is cautious optimism among retailers. MRI Software’s weekly Insights from the Inside survey revealed that 55 per cent of retailers saw stronger sales during February’s half-term break compared to last year.
However, the outlook for March is more reserved, with 58 per cent of retailers expecting lower sales than in 2024 likely due to the later timing of Easter, which shifts key spending into April.
As the sector prepares for the upcoming Spring Budget, attention is turning to how financial policies may further influence consumer confidence and retail spending. Potential changes in tax, public spending, and household support will be closely monitored for its impact on disposable income and retail demand in the months ahead.
A leading retailers' body has called on to introduce interim pricing remedies to reduce card fees after a recent report showed that leading credit cards have been consistently increasing their processing fees, squeezing businesses' ability to invest and grow.
British Retail Consortium (BRC) today (6) raised a demand to introduce interim pricing remedies to reduce fees which have been an unjust burden on merchants, and working towards the introduction of a price cap in the longer term.
According to a report by Payment Systems Regulator (PSR), Mastercard and Visa increased their core scheme and processing fees to acquirers by at least 25 per cent since 2017, costing businesses at least £170 million extra per year.
This increased cost of doing business in the UK impacts on UK businesses’ ability to invest and grow, and could lead to direct economic constraints, particularly for small merchant, states the report.
In addition, a lack of easy-to-understand fee information has led to costs for acquirers and merchants, including small retailers.
The report also notes that existing alternative payment methods to cards do not exert effective competitive constraints on the fees charged by Mastercard and Visa for scheme and processing services.
Cards are the most popular way for consumers to pay for goods and services in the UK. In 2023, 61 per cent of all payments in the UK were made using cards, making up almost 86 per cent of the total value of retail transactions.
Data from BRC shows that in 2023 consumer credit and debit cards accounted for 85.7 per cent of the total value of retail transactions in the UK.
In 2012, cash was the most popular method of payment. However, since then, the use of cash has declined substantially, while cards have grown and are expected to grow even more.
Mastercard and Visa are central to this; over 95 per cent of transactions using UK issued cards are made on their rails.
However, merchants have been raising concerns about the cost of accepting cards and their limited ability to understand or negotiate fees.
Chris Owen, Payments Policy Advisor at BRC, said, "This report confirms the harms arising from the lack of competition in the card schemes market, with fees being introduced without justification or sufficient explanation.
"There has been a 25% increase in scheme fees since 2017 costing businesses an extra £170 million per year. It’s now time for meaningful action. Following the PSR’s findings, it is clear it must go further than the proposed remedies in its interim report.
"This means introducing interim pricing remedies to reduce fees which have been an unjust burden on merchants, and working towards the introduction of a price cap in the longer term."
Love was in the aisle this Valentine's as Brits spend almost £1 billion on flowers, gifts and dine-at-home meals with £962m was spent across Valentine's Day on food and gifting with £5.8m spent on toiletries gift packs and £19m on fragrances.
According to new data released today by NielsenIQ (NIQ), shoppers spent £137m on fresh ready meals (+2.9 per cent), nearly £11m on champagne (+5.7 per cent), and £38m on sparkling wine. There was also increased spend (+ 4.2 per cent) on impulse/confectionery as shoppers indulged in sweet treats to celebrate.
Discounters were the fastest growing channel (+6 per cent) whilst convenience store sales were down (-0.1 per cent).
Retailers embraced the occasion, with promotional spend contributing 24 per cent of sales, supported by continued investment in price cuts and Dine-In offers. While in-stores sales benefited the most (+4.3 per cent), online sales growth remained muted at +0.7 per cent, with market share declining to 12.9 per cent from 13.3 per cent a year ago.
Shoppers took advantage of these promotions with Valentine's food (excluding drinks) seeing value growth of +5.1 per cent and units growing at +0.6 per cent driven by cakes and morning goods indicating a new and affordable way to celebrate the day.
Over the four weeks, meat, fish and poultry was the fastest growing super category (+8.5 per cent) followed by dairy (+6.4 per cent) and produce (+5.7 per cent) as fresh foods were favoured over packaged grocery (+2.4 per cent) and frozen food growth was weaker (+0.7 per cent and -0.6 per cent units).
Beer, wine and spirits remained in decline (-2 per cent and -2.8 per cent in units).
Despite a slow start to the month, NIQ data reveals that grocery multiples saw their strongest growth leading up to Valentine's Day in the week ending 15th February driven by increased shopper visits (+5.9 per cent) as 17 per cent of households looked to celebrate and make special purchases.
Mike Watkins, Head of Retailer and Business Insight at NIQ said, "Retailers capitalised on the opportunities around Valentine's Day as shoppers wanted to create a special occasion at home.
"With the pinch of the cost of living, many shoppers dined in to save money this year, with premium food options growing and themed meals and gifts very much in vogue for treating loved ones.
"There are three things to consider looking ahead. Firstly, the GfK Consumer Confidence Index for February suggested that people don't expect the economy to show any dramatic signs of improvement and with many household bills, such as energy, water and council tax, increasing over the next few weeks, shoppers will be looking carefully at their discretionary spend."
He add, "Secondly, the recent sales trends in Hospitality from CGA show some weakness. Finally, the increase in food inflation reported by BRC NIQ this week looks to be a turning point.
"The overall impact will be that many shoppers will need to seek out more discounts when shopping, in particular from supermarket loyalty schemes - maybe switching some food and drink away from out-of-home to supermarkets."
The British Independent Retailers Association (BIRA) has expressed concern over the latest figures from the BRC-NIQ Shop Price Index for February 2025, saying that while overall shop prices remain in deflation, the rise in food prices is worrying for retailers and consumers alike.
The BRC report released on Tuesday (4) shows that shop price inflation was unchanged at -0.7 per cent while non-food inflation decreased to -2.1 per cent year on year in February.
However, food inflation increased to 2.1 per cent year on year in February, fresh Food inflation increased to 1.5 per cent year on year while ambient food inflation increased to 2.8 per cent year on year in February.
Andrew Goodacre, Bira CEO said, "The retail market is showing a split with essential categories such as food showing inflation and the non-essential sectors having to reduce prices (deflation) to drive sales.
"It is well known in retail that higher inflation in essentials (food, utilities and petrol are all increasing) has a disproportionate impact on consumer confidence and significantly reduces demand for the non-essential items.
"The extra costs for employers and the 140 per cent increase in business rates from April will add to inflation and continue to damage the wider high street supported by independent retailers."
Detailing on food inflation, Helen Dickinson OBE, Chief Executive of BRC, informed that breakfast, in particular, got more expensive as butter, cheese, eggs, bread and cereals all saw price hikes.
"Climbing global coffee prices could threaten to push the morning costs higher in the coming months. In non-food, month on month prices rose as January Sales promotions ended, especially in electricals and furniture. But discounting is still widespread in fashion as retailers tried to entice customers against a backdrop of weak demand.
"Inflation will likely rise across the board as the year progresses with geopolitical tensions running high and the imminent £7bn increase in costs from the Autumn Budget and the new poorly designed packaging levy arriving on the doorsteps of retailers.
"We expect food prices to be over 4% up by the second half of the year. If Government wants to keep inflation at bay, enable retailers to focus on growth, and help households, it must mitigate the swathe of costs facing the industry. It can start by ensuring no shop ends up paying more than they already do under the new business rates proposals, and delaying the new packaging taxes."
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Chain Stores Surge Impacting Nutrition in Low and Middle-Income Countries
A new study has unveiled a “seismic shift” in the types of food stores springing up globally over the past 15 years, with serious health implications for vulnerable low and middle-income countries.
The study by researchers from Deakin University in Australia and experts from UNICEF, analysing data from 97 countries on retail changes over the last 15 years, found that the number of chain supermarkets, hypermarkets and convenience stores per 10,000 people increased by 23.6 per cent globally over the period.
With market domination by these types of retailers being the norm in high-income countries, low and middle-income countries are copying the trend and catching up fast, the research noted.
In South Asia and Southeast Asia, the number of chain retail outlets per person has increased by nearly 10 per cent per year, with a corresponding drop off in independently owned traditional stores.
And in a sign that retail is set for an even bigger shake up, grocery sales from digital retailers increased by 325 per cent over a 10-year period across 27 countries.
The researchers showed for the first time that on a global scale, change in the density of chain retail outlets and the increasing amount of unhealthy food sold by them was associated with an increase in the prevalence of obesity, which continues to rise in every region of the world and is very much a global concern.
“Large chain retailers usually hold significant market power, using their dominance over food manufacturers to determine what food is available and what price it’s sold at, which has led to the widespread availability of unhealthy foods,” Dr Tailane Scapin, from Deakin University and the study’s lead author, commented.
“Large chain retailers and food manufacturers also use aggressive marketing strategies to promote unhealthy foods, contributing to poor dietary habits and, as consequence, negatively impacting their customers’ health.”
Dr Scapin said immediate action was needed to address the impact of changing retail food environments.
“Our findings underscore the importance of regulating the retail environment to make sure that it’s healthy foods that are promoted, while the marketing and promotion of unhealthy food products is limited,” she said.
“In low and middle-income countries where supermarkets and convenience stores are spreading the fastest, governments have a time-limited opportunity to make sure that these new, modern retail stores actually promote healthy food. We know from the experience in North America, Europe and other high-income regions that once retailers are established, they are very hard to change.”
The researchers called for urgent action from governments, from retailers and from the health promotion workforce to prioritise healthier retail food environments that support sustainable and healthy dietary patterns and positive public health outcomes.
“With this research published on World Obesity Day which has a theme of ‘Changing systems for healthier lives’, it’s important that the promising action being taken by forward-thinking retailers and governments is scaled up globally,” Dr Scapin said.
The full study report, with data by country, by geographic region and by country income group, appears in the publication in Nature Food and in an interactive dashboard here.