The health of the retail sector could turn the corner over the next quarter, as improvements in personal finances is expected to boost households’ ability to spend, according to the KPMG Retail Health Sentiment Index.
Next three months could be a turning point where the sector will see a year-on-year improvement in retailer health, Retail Think Tank (RTT) believes. Consumers are expected to start feeling more confident around key drivers such as interest rates, price inflation and other household bills. The more positive year-on-year outlook for Q2 ‘24 comes in anticipation of headline inflation reaching the government’s 2 per cent target, and a hopefully exciting performance at Euro 2024, boosting food and drink sales, as well as football and sporting goods.
The RTT considers that whilst an interest rate cut potentially as early as June would help to settle consumer nerves, additional trigger events will be needed in order to move households to spending extra money rather than save it. Warmer weather and sporting events could deliver the necessary impact required to get consumers spending again. However, a spending boost is only likely to continue to buoy the food and drink sector, rather than non-food and big-ticket items which are expected to remain under pressure until the end of the year.
Linda Ellett, KPMG UK head of consumer, retail, leisure and Retail Think Tank member, “On the back of two years of budgeting and cost cutting, cautious consumers are releasing the purse-strings much more slowly than they tightened them, choosing to save or pay down debt. An early Easter helped end Q1 ‘24 with much stronger retail sales growth, but an early Easter does typically subdue April’s numbers by 5 per cent or more. Despite the economy still being challenging, how quickly food price inflation falls will be central to boosting consumer’s willingness to spend. It isn’t until the back half of this year that we would really expect consumer confidence and spending in non-food to gain the momentum needed to push the retail sector back on to a healthier path, but cautious steps in the next quarter will be most welcomed by the sector.”
James Sawley, head of retail & leisure, HSBC UK and Retail Think Tank member, “Economic fundamentals would have concluded that demand should have improved in Q1 ‘24 year on year, but trading data showed it was pretty neutral, not helped by generally miserable weather which kept shoppers at home. The economic conditions are improving, and retailers will be hoping that this is enough to start turning the tide on consumer confidence to the point where demand returns to the level needed to get the retail sector back on the road to good health again.”
Maureen Hinton, retail consultant and Retail Think Tank member, “Inflation and higher interest rates have made consumers much more selective with their spending, prioritising essentials, holidays and events, resulting in food retail far exceeding non-food. As inflation eases and discretionary income improves, volumes will begin to increase, offering more opportunities for retailers in non-food. However, product innovation is key to attract spend, as Zara continually proves and Nike has recently recognised. There will also be opportunities in home and electricals as the replacement cycle kicks in and the housing market improves.”
Mike Watkins, head of retailer and business insight NIQ UK and Retail Think Tank member, “We are seeing cautious optimism from consumers, and there is some light at the end of the tunnel as personal finance situations have started to shift to being more positive.
"However, the key question is whether consumers can be convinced to start spending again, particularly on non-food items and what triggers are needed to really make this happen soon. Retailers are already re-visiting cost reduction programmes in light of a rising cost base, so an uplift in demand is needed sooner rather than later to keep the sector moving towards better health overall.”
Miya Knights, Retail Technology Magazine publisher and consultant and Retail Think Tank member, “Those retailers that can effectively use tech to better match supply to demand, increase efficiency, and reduce the cost of goods sold, online particularly, will be best positioned to capitalise on any improvements in consumer demand in the months ahead.”
Charles Burton, director, Oxford Economics and Retail Think Tank member, “Wage inflation is falling more slowly than price inflation which is boosting post tax incomes and we are starting to see disposable household incomes rising quite quickly. When interest rate cuts arrive we can expect people to really start feeling more confident to spend, but this is most likely something for retailers to look forward to in the latter half of the year.”
Nick Bubb, retailing consultant, Bubb Retail Consultancy Ltd and Retail Think Tank member, “Despite reassuring news on recent trading from the likes of B&M, both the General Retail and the Food Retail stock market sectors have been a bit subdued so far in 2024 (after performing well in 2023), implying that the City is not quite sure whether the widely expected high street spending recovery in H2 will materialise as expected.”
Leading wholesale buying and marketing group Sugro UK has collaborated with Britvic Soft Drinks, a global organisation with 39 much-loved brands sold in over 100 countries, to launch a groundbreaking Fast Food Sample Box.
The sample box is specifically designed for ICS UK LTD customers, giving them a unique opportunity to sample and experience new Fast Food soft drinks offerings firsthand.
The new Fast Food Sample Box offers ICS customers an exclusive opportunity to explore a curated selection of Britvic's best-selling and new product offerings that drives incremental sales. This trial initiative is designed to provide Fast Food retailers with a hands-on experience of market-leading products, helping them identify key opportunities for growth in the Fast-Food soft drinks categories.
Sugro UK's Fast Food Sample Box represents a pioneering approach to boosting customer engagement, providing tailored solutions that meet the evolving demands of today’s consumers. This initiative is the first of its kind in the sector, giving ICS customers exclusive access to products that are proven to drive sales and offering them a competitive edge in their local markets.
Alice Graham, GB Head of Dining Route to Market Wholesale, "We are delighted to collaborate with both Sugro and ICS with this initiative. The fast-food market has seen double digit growth over the last few years and the growth is set to continue. This initiative with ICS, a leader in fast food wholesale, underscores our commitment to supporting the growth of Britvic brands and advancing our partnerships with fast food establishments.”
Sid Musa, Manager at ICS (UK) added, “At ICS UK LTD, we are thrilled to partner with Sugro UK and Britvic on this industry-first initiative. The Fast-Food Sample Box gives our fast-food customers a unique opportunity to experience top-tier products firsthand, empowering them to make informed decisions that can truly elevate their offerings. We’re confident this exclusive initiative will help our customers stay competitive and drive growth in an ever-evolving market.”
Yulia Petitt, Head of Commercial and Marketing at Sugro UK commented: “We are incredibly excited about the partnership with Britvic delivered with excellence by our member – ICS Ltd. Fast Food sector is a big part of the group commercial strategy, so we see it as a huge opportunity for the group.”
Sugro UK is proudly owned by its 90 plus independent wholesale members, with a combined turnover of over £2.5 billion. The group was recently voted number one across all buying groups in the recent Advantage Group Survey.
British plant-based ready meal maker Allplants has filed a notice of intention to appoint administrators, citing ongoing financial losses, stated recent reports.
Allplants, known as the UK’s largest vegan ready meal brand, has faced mounting losses over recent years. Filing the notice provides the company with a critical window to explore options to avoid liquidation, such as restructuring, refinancing, or negotiating a sale.
According to the founder and CEO Jonathan Petrides, Allplants is working closely with insolvency specialists Interpath Advisory to assess “all possible options for restructuring, refinancing, and ensuring the sustainability of Allplants".
The reports added that while the prospect of a buyer offers some hope, failure to finalise a deal would likely lead to the company’s remaining stock being sold off to pay creditors. The development underscores the challenges faced by plant-based food companies as they navigate a competitive and increasingly crowded market.
Allplants started off as a direct-to-consumer brand in 2016, made its retail debut in November 2022, listing its meals at Planet Organic and several independent stores, as well as online grocer Ocado. It witnessed instant success, selling six million meals within the first three months and becoming the second-most purchased frozen meal brand on the latter platform.
Allplants has raised £67m across several financing rounds from investors including Molten Ventures, Felix Capital, Octopus Ventures, The Craftery, and professional footballers Chris Smalling and Kieran Gibbs.
Allplants’s move to appoint administrators is indicative of the distressed vegan ready meal category in the UK. It was among the categories that have witnessed a drop-off in sales recently, falling by 20 per cent between 2022 and 2023, according to Circana data commissioned by the Good Food Institute, which attributed it to cost-of-living pressures that led shoppers to cut back on non-essential and convenience items.
The country’s largest meat-free company, Quorn, posted pre-tax losses of £63m in 2023, a fourfold increase from the £15m it lost the year before. Meatless Farm and VBites also came close to the brink, before being rescued by VFC (now the Vegan Food Group) and owner Heather Mills, respectively.
Entrepreneur and businessperson Stanley Morrice, an influential figure in the retail and wholesale sectors, received an Honorary Doctorate from the University of Stirling at Stirling’s winter graduation held today (22).
Stanley, from Fraserburgh, is being recognised for his services to Scottish food, drink and agriculture. He entered the sector as a school leaver. In 1993, he joined Aberdeen-based convenience stores Aberness Foods, which traded as Mace. He rose to become Sales Director, boosting income by 50 per cent and tripling profits, and went on to be Managing Director, successfully leading the business through a strategic sale to supermarket group Somerfield.
Throughout a stellar business career, Stanley has set up, led, managed and sold more than 100 companies, from retail, wholesale and property to coaching and mentoring firms, in the UK and internationally.
An MBA graduate in retailing and wholesaling from the University of Stirling and Chair of the University of Stirling Management School’s International Advisory Board, Stanley was recognised with an MBE in 2022 for his work to support sustainable food and drink production in north-east Scotland.
Collecting his degree along with more than 300 other graduates at Friday morning’s ceremony, Stanley said, “I am deeply honoured to receive this recognition from the University of Stirling, where I completed my MBA in 1998. The University has played a pivotal role in shaping my career, and it has been a privilege to serve as Chair of the International Advisory Board at Stirling Management School since early 2020.
“This honorary degree reflects the University's commitment to cultivating industry partnerships and its dedication to preparing students for success in the business world. I was grateful for the opportunity to contribute to Stirling's mission of fostering innovation and developing future leaders.”
Professor Sir Gerry McCormac, Principal and Vice-Chancellor of the University of Stirling, said: “We are delighted to be awarding an Honorary Doctorate to Stanley Morrice, who has been an influential and exemplary figure in business and entrepreneurship, and in his advisory role at the University of Stirling. We know Stanley’s accomplishments, impact and leadership will be an inspiration to those graduating alongside him this week.”
In total, more than 1,000 students will graduate from the University of Stirling this week. Three ceremonies are being held across two days (21 – 22 November) as students celebrate their academic achievements alongside their families, friends and University staff.
British consumers have turned less pessimistic following the government's first budget and the US presidential election and they are showing more appetite for spending in the run-up to Christmas, according to a new survey.
The GfK Consumer Confidence Index, the longest-running measure of British consumer sentiment, rose to -18 in November, its highest since August and up from -21 in October which was its lowest since March.
Economists polled by Reuters had expected a deterioration in the confidence indicator to -22. Neil Bellamy, GfK's consumer insights director, said consumers seemed to have moved past their nervousness in the run-up to the 30 October budget and the 4 November US elections.
Finance minister Rachel Reeves announced a big increase in taxes on 30 October but the burden fell mostly on businesses rather than individuals.
Bellamy said it was too soon to say a corner had been turned. "As recent data shows, inflation has yet to be tamed, people are still feeling acute cost-of-living pressures, and it will take time for the UK's new government to deliver on its promise of 'change'," he said.
All five of the five components of the GfK's survey rose this month, led by a gauge of shoppers' willingness to make expensive purchases which rose five point to -16.
The survey was conducted between 30 October and 15 November and was based on the responses of 2,001 people.
GfK’s survey reported modest improvements in consumer measures of their personal finances and the general economic situation over the next 12 months. The figures clash with a separate survey of 1,500 households which showed growing pessimism over job security, according to S&P Intelligence.
“Consumer confidence continues to be variable but ability to spend depends on household circumstance,” Linda Ellett, UK head of consumer and retail at KPMG, said. “Inflation and interest rates having not yet sufficiently fallen and a toughening labour market are all weighing on the minds of many people.”
The government announced a £20 billion rise in employer national insurance contributions at the budget, as part of its promise not to hit “working people” with extra levies. Labour has also cut back on winter fuel payments for all pensioners, and said it will boost pay for public sector workers this year.
British retail sales fell by much more than expected in October, according to official data that added to other signs of a loss of momentum in the economy in the run-up to the first budget of prime minister Keir Starmer's new government.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said sales volumes have fallen by 0.7 per cent in October. A Reuters poll of economists had forecast a monthly fall of 0.3 per cent in sales volumes from September.
The drop was the sharpest since June when sales fell by 1.0 per cent from May. A monthly rise in sales in September was also revised down to 0.1 per cent from a previous estimate of a 0.3 per cent gain.
The ONS said retailers across the board reported that consumers held back on spending ahead of the new government's first tax and spending budget on 30 October.
It also said a possible contributor to the weakness in sales were the school half-term holidays for England and Wales which typically fall within the October data reporting period but did not this year.
Sales of clothing were particularly weak in October, something reflected in previously released figures for the month from the British Retail Consortium, representing the industry, which linked the fall to weather that was warmer than usual.
The ONS said during the 12 months to October, sales volumes rose by 2.4 per cent, slowing from September's 3.2 per cent rise and weaker than the median forecast in the Reuters poll for a 3.4 per cent increase.
Slow start to Golden Quarter
Jacqui Baker, head of retail at RSM UK and chair of ICAEW’s Retail Group, described the figures as a “concerning start to the Golden Quarter” - the busiest period for retailers.
“With half-term falling later this year and relatively mild weather, consumers have put off buying their winter coats and boots. This has made it difficult for retailers to shift stock,” she said. Many shoppers appear to be holding out for Black Friday deals, which Baker predicts will lift sales throughout November.
Baker noted that despite a challenging October, there is hope for a recovery in the months ahead.
“The Budget didn’t deal a huge blow to consumers in the form of tax rises, plus interest rates continue to come down, and the American election is now out of the way, which should help with confidence and create a clear runway for Christmas spending,” she said.
Thomas Pugh, an economist at RSM UK, echoed these concerns, pointing to the timing of the school half-term as a significant factor in October's sales slump. However, he expressed optimism about the longer-term outlook, predicting that retail sales would grow through 2025 as “higher consumer incomes and rising consumer confidence … feed through into higher spending volumes.”
He added: “While headline inflation jumped from 1.7 per cent in September to 2.2 per cent in October, retail prices fell at an accelerated rate. Indeed, retail inflation dropped from -1.3 per cent to -1.6 per cent, meaning lower prices will help a rise in spending feed through into bigger increases in sales volumes.”
Silvia Rindone, EY UK&I Retail Lead, highlighted consumer caution as another key factor behind the October decline.
“The decline in sales volumes can be attributed to a decrease in consumer confidence, influenced by several factors including uncertainty surrounding the Autumn Statement, rising energy bills, and the impending costs of Christmas,” she commented.
EY’s latest Holiday Shopping survey revealed that nearly half of consumers began their festive shopping before November, aiming to spread out holiday expenses.
Rindone warned that retailers face a challenging period ahead, with upcoming labour cost increases, including changes to National Insurance and a minimum wage hike set for April 2025.
“The next few months are critical… Retailers will need to ensure they drive margin this Golden Quarter so that investments can be made in their proposition,” she said.
“As our survey found, shoppers are willing to spend if the price is right and the proposition is strong. Continuing to operate as efficiently as possible while steadily improving the experience for customers will be key. Much like the last few years, the market is getting tougher, and only those able to continually evolve will thrive.”