Retailers could find themselves facing a New Year spending squeeze as public confidence in the state of the economy took a nosedive, show recent industry data.
According to BRC-Opinium data released today (23), consumer expectations over the next three months of their personal financial situation remained at -3 in December, the same as in November.
Confidence in state of the economy worsened to -27 in December, down from -19 in November. Confidence on personal spending on retail also fell while confidence in personal spending overall dropped to +11 in December, down from +17 in November.
Helen Dickinson, Chief Executive of the British Retail Consortium, said,“Public confidence in the state of the economy took a nosedive, falling 8pts to -27.
"This created a widening gap between expectations of the economy and of people’s own finances, which remained unchanged. Perceptions were heavily skewed by age, with 18 to 35 year olds considerably more upbeat than older generations on both questions.
"The public’s spending intentions – both in retail and beyond – dropped 6pts, with expectations of spending in nearly every retail category falling. If these expectations are realised, retailers could find themselves facing a New Year spending squeeze just as they unveil their January sales.
“The weak spending intentions could pave the way for a challenging year for retailers, who face being buffeted by low consumer demand and £7bn of new costs from the Budget set to hit the industry in 2025."
Dickinson added that with sales growth unable to keep pace, retailers will have no choice but to raise prices or cut costs – closing stores and freezing recruitment.
"To mitigate the impact this will have on growth, Government must ensure that its proposed business rates reform does not result in any shops paying higher rates than they already do," she said.
Grocers must focus on their price positioning to remain competitive as food and grocery spending in UK convenience stores is projected to outpace the hypermarkets, supermarkets, and discounters channel.
According to GlobalData, food and grocery spending in convenience stores is projected to reach £43.2 billion by 2028, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.0 per cent between 2024 and 2028.
Between 2023 and 2024, the traditional big four grocers, Tesco, Sainsbury’s, ASDA, and Morrisons, collectively added 800 new convenience stores to their portfolios, with ASDA and Morrisons leading the growth with acquisitions. This rapid expansion underscores increasing competition in the convenience market.
After successfully focusing on price in large format stores to appeal to consumers during the cost-of-living crisis, grocers must shift their focus on agile pricing to convenience locations.
Sainsbury’s and Tesco are notable examples within convenience, with Sainsbury's recently introducing Aldi price matching in its Local stores and Tesco announcing price reductions on over 200 products in its Express stores.
Aliyah Siddika, Retail Analyst at GlobalData, comments, “This replication of price focus from larger format stores to grocers’ expanding their convenience offer will encourage consumers to impulse buy due to increased affordability.
"The shift in UK consumer behaviour towards frequent top-up shopping has also created substantial growth potential in the convenience market.”
Before the pandemic, 81.6 per cent of UK consumers stated they would visit a grocer on the way home from work, and 78.4 per cent reported the same now.
Budget limitations have primarily driven this change, followed by the rise of hybrid working. Pre-pandemic, consumers working in the office full-time had less time to cook dinner after work.
However, with the shift to hybrid work models, consumers now go into the office a few times a week and are more likely to have the time to prepare meals ahead of the days they are in the office to save money.
Convenience retailers should promote low prices on their fakeaway options to entice consumers to visit on their way home from work for an affordable yet indulgent meal.
Siddika concludes,“When offering deeper price cuts in convenience formats, grocers must target price promotions towards items that consumers are more inclined to purchase during the workweek. Such as food-to-go ranges, ready meals, quick dinners, and treats to capture spending from commuters."
Sales of fresh meat and poultry have soared as shoppers cut back on takeaways and eating out – but they are increasingly shunning so-called ‘meat-free’ options.
NIQ data released today (14) shows that over the last 12 months, British consumers did more scratch cooking, with sales of fresh meat (+£481.3m), fresh fruit (+£463.5m), fresh vegetables (+£374m), fresh salad (+£285.3m) and fresh poultry (+£247.6m) all among the top 10 fastest growing categories.
In a further sign that more meals are being freshly prepared, dried herbs and spices enjoyed the biggest volume percentage gains out of all the 127 categories in this year’s report.
Sales of beef (+£242.1m) and chicken (+£212m) were among the most popular and fastest growing products in British supermarket baskets in 2024, but lamb and duck also enjoyed strong growth.
But the meat-free category (-£37.1m) continues to decline, dipping below £500m in value. Market leader Quorn (-£16.5m) was the biggest casualty, although some brands are still in growth.
Inflation
The NIQ data also shows that UK shoppers have cut back on some dairy products, with milk (-£223.3m) and butter, spreads & margarine (-£63.7m) among the fastest falling categories, as the massive inflation in these categories over the past two years has taken its toll.
With inflation now largely under control in grocery retail, the reintroduction of branded promotions has helped stem the slump in overall branded volumes. But inflation is still having a material impact on the market.
A less obvious casualty is chocolate confectionery (+£532.6m), which actually recorded the biggest increase in value sales across the Top Products Survey. But volumes fell and most of the value gains reflect price hikes linked to soaring cocoa commodity prices, as cocoa beans futures reached an all-time high of $12,000/tonne earlier this year.
It was a similar story for Cadbury Dairy Milk (+£72.4m), where the leading chocolate brand’s strong value sales again masked lower volumes.
The cost of living crisis is likely also to blame for the decline in sales in many alcoholic drinks categories, although the government’s duty hikes have also played a part. Spirits (-£52.6m), sparkling wine (-£19.9m) and champagne (-£12.1m) all fared badly. And alcohol brands accounted for 50% of the top 10 fastest falling products, including lager brands Foster’s (-£34m) and Carling (-£22.2m) as well as the UK’s leading gin brand Gordon’s (-£21.4m).
Sales of wine (+£242.4m) performed better, although Hardys (-£41m), and Blossom Hill (-£22.7m) were some of the biggest losers overall in terms of value sales.
It was a different story in energy drinks.
Monster (+£103.6m) and Red Bull (+£84.7m) were the strongest performing brands in terms of value sales. But after enjoying stratospheric growth, following its social-media fuelled launch, sales of Prime (-£63.1m) came crashing down to earth.
The biggest overall casualty, however, was disposable vaping brand ElfBar (-£284m), amid signs that the vaping category may have passed its peak ahead of duty hikes and increased legislative restrictions. On the other hand the overall fastest growing product was SKE Crystal Bar (+£240.8m) which shows how prone to fast-moving fads the vaping category is.
The fortunes of the wrapped bread market were also highly variable. Hovis (-£37.7m) experienced the biggest downturn in sales of any food brand; while Warburtons (+£57.6m) was the biggest food brand to be in value and volume growth.
Fastest-growing grocery categories of 2024
Category
Actual growth (£ millions) in value sales
1
Chocolate
£532.6m
2
Fresh Meat
£481.3m
3
Fresh Fruit
£463.5m
4
Fresh Veg
£374m
5
Fresh Salad
£285.3m
6
Crisps & Snacks
£247.6m
7
Fresh Poultry
£247.6m
8
Eggs
£246m
9
Light Wine
£242.4m
10
Sweet Biscuits
£238.9m
Fastest-falling grocery categories of 2024
Category
Actual decline (£ millions) in value sales
1
Milk
-£223.3m
2
Toilet Tissue
-£106.2m
3
Butter, Spreads & Marge
-£63.7m
4
Spirits
-£52.6m
5
Meat-Free
-£37.1m
6
Frozen Fish
-£21.3m
7
Sparkling Wine
-£19.9m
8
Kitchen Roll
-£12.9m
9
Champagne
-£12.1m
10
Dry Pasta
-£6.8m
Rachel White, Managing Director UK & Ireland at NIQ, said, “Shopping habits have changed once again. What we are seeing in this year’s survey is a return to scratch cooking and the preparation of fresh meals.
"Perhaps this is a nod to trends in healthier living – with consumers taking the time to prepare meals together, sourcing fresh and healthy products and consuming less alcohol – but it’s also a product of the cost of living crisis, as shoppers cut back on takeaways and eating out to save money.”
Retailers can capitalise on the rising demand for premium pet food by offering innovative, high-quality products like nutrient-rich supplements and superfood treats amid the evolving bond between pets and their owners, states a recent survey report's findings.
The UK has the largest dog population (13.02m) and one of the largest cat populations (11.71m) in Europe, with one in three UK households owning a dog, and one in four owning a cat.
According to Mars Petcare's research based on insights from over 20,000 pet parents in 20 countries, the bond between owners and pets driving trends in premium nutrition, personalised care, and sustainability - all of which are shaping the future of petcare.
An impressive 37 per cent of pet parents consider their pets the most important part of their lives — a sentiment even stronger among younger generations, with 45 per cent of Gen Z and 40 per cent of Millennials expressing this bond.
Globally, the number of pet parents is rising, with a large portion of first-time owners. Out of the 56 per cent of pet parents surveyed who own a dog or cat, nearly half (47 per cent) are first-time owners, reflecting a new generation of pet parents keen to embrace tailored and innovative solutions for their pets' needs.
The report also shows that sustainability is a key consideration for pet parents, with 45 per cent believing it is very important when purchasing pet food. This sentiment is particularly strong amongst the younger generations, indicating a shift towards a demand for more sustainable and ethically produced products.
In the UK, one in three owners don’t change the food they originally feed their pet throughout their lifetime. This demonstrates the importance for retailers and brands alike to target the growing number of first-time pet owners, many of whom prioritise sustainable products.
Brands like Sheba Kitten for example, are continuing to build lifelong value by targeting first-time pet parents early in their journey. With kittens comprising 14 per cent of the UK cat population, this premium, grain-free range of wet food made of natural ingredients, vitamins and minerals, is designed to secure long-term brand loyalty while meeting nutritional needs.
Adelina Bizoi, Category & Market Activation Director at Mars Petcare, comments: “The evolving bond between pets and their owners signifies a shift in behaviour that the industry must react to.
"We know the strong relationship between owners and their furry friends means that petcare continues to be one of the last categories that pet parents will look to decrease spending on, making sure they provide offerings that are beneficial to their pets’ health even during tough time economically.
“Retailers have a significant opportunity to tap into the growing demand for premium petcare by offering a diverse range of innovative products. High-quality, nutrient-rich options such as supplements and superfood treats appeal to wellness-focused owners prioritising their pets' digestion, immunity, and joint health.
“Retailers can also tap into the rise of first-time pet parents and demand for sustainable products by offering starter kits and sustainability-driven initiatives. Starter kits, especially those tailored for first-time pet parents, can simplify pet ownership and create loyalty from the outset.”
The findings from Mars Global Pet Parent Study highlights the substantial opportunity for retailers to diversify their product offerings and build stronger, more meaningful connections between pets and their owners in an increasingly competitive market.
On average, each of the 5.5 million small and medium-sized businesses (SMB) in the UK lost almost £11,000 this year through fraud, claims a new research.
Commissioned by Mollie, the study found that over half (54 per cent) of UK SMBs were the victims of online fraud in 2024.
Specifically, more than half (58 per cent) dealt with phishing scams in the past 12 months, where scammers pretended to be trusted companies to steal their personal information through email. Additionally, 42 per cent dealt with refund fraud, where customers manipulated refund policies to obtain reimbursements for products or services they were not entitled to.
Similarly, three in ten (30 per cent) said they experienced attempts at account takeovers, where unauthorized parties tried to gain access to their online business accounts. Additionally, a quarter (26 per cent) experienced chargebacks on completely legitimate transactions, and over two in ten (23 per cent) faced carding attacks, where stolen cards were tested at checkout, leading to spikes in failed transactions.
In addition to the financial toll, online fraud is impacting the productivity of small businesses. Mollie’s research found that they spend an average of 15 days—or 120 hours—each year managing and mitigating fraud-related issues. This time commitment diverts resources from core business operations, further straining already limited budgets.
Richard Wivell, Marketing Manager at Nemesis Now, said, "Experiencing gateway attacks was a costly and stressful ordeal for our business. We dealt with fake orders, refunded fraudulent payments, and worked overtime with developers to manage thousands of malicious requests.
"Unfortunately, the lack of urgency from our previous provider forced us to take matters into our own hands working with our trusted web development agency to identify vulnerabilities and blocking attacks.”
Dave Smallwood, UK Managing Director of Mollie, said, “As the backbone of the UK economy, it’s crucial that UK SMBs –especially e-commerce ones– are equipped with practical solutions to manage their money and fight fraud effectively. Many small businesses lack the resources to cover a single fraudulent incident, and without support and action, we risk stifling business innovation and growth.
"Fighting fraudulent activity is taking resources away from day-to-day business operations, and we need this to change. We need to provide businesses large and small with access to the support needed to safeguard against increasingly sophisticated threats so they can focus on the job at hand."
UK food businesses are expected to face significant financial challenges in 2025, grappling with multiple cost pressures. The cost of food items is predicted to rise by up to 4.9 per cent next year, according to the Institute of Grocery Distribution (IGD).
IGD’s latest Viewpoint Special Report, “Hungry For Growth”, highlights food inflation as one of the most significant challenges for UK households. However, it also places the increase in food prices within a wider context of overall industry pressures.
IGD’s forecast for food inflation in 2025 is based on a full overview of all the cost pressures on food businesses for the next 12 months. While energy and commodity prices will remain stable albeit a little higher in 2025, there will be significantly increased employment and regulatory costs for food businesses in the coming year which will mean food inflation could hit anywhere between 2.4 per cent - 4.9 per cent.
In July 2024, IGD forecast that retail food inflation in 2025 would average 2.1 per cent. This forecast has been revised upward principally on the basis of measures announced in the budget.
In forming these new forecasts, IGD assumed that major policy changes raising business costs will arrive in three phases over the next year:
April: rising costs to employment staff due to increases in National Insurance and National Living Wage
July: rising costs of food imports due to implementation of the Windsor Agreement framework with the EU
Oct: first payments are due to fall on Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR), increasing costs on packaging
IGD estimates that the food sector will only be able to absorb between 20 per cent - 40 per cent of these costs, meaning the remainder will be passed onto the consumer.
Food inflation is likely to continue to exceed inflation in other items, not just in 2025 but also 2026.
“We do not see food prices going down in the foreseeable future," said IGD Chief Economist James Walton. "The rising cost of living, combined with increased employment and regulatory costs, will keep inflation elevated. Consumers will undoubtedly look for ways to save money, but the impact of these cost pressures will be felt across the economy.
"For the food sector, the increased financial burdens are becoming harder to absorb, particularly for smaller players in the sector. The cumulative impact of multiple changes landing within a short period of time will drive significant cost into all food businesses across the UK.”