Retailers to face weak demand and higher costs in New Year: industry report
Shoppers shelter from the heavy rain as they walk in the Oxford Street retail district on December 19, 2023 in London, England. (Photo by Leon Neal/Getty Images)
Falling consumer demand combined with a barrage of rising costs is set to create a challenging six months ahead for the retail sector, an assessment by KPMG/RetailNext Retail Think Tank (RTT) members has shown.
With early indications of a disappointing Christmas trading period for some retailers, particularly in non-food categories, and food retailers resorting to increasing the level of promotions in order to drive sales this year, there will be very little respite for the retail sector as it enters 2024, according to the latest KPMG/RetailNext Retail Health Index (RHI).
The RHI, which assesses the state of health of the UK retail sector by considering the three key drivers of demand, margin, and cost, concluded that beleaguered consumers will hit the pause button on spending even further in the opening months of 2024.
Despite having more money in their pockets than they did in the first quarter of 2023, consumer sentiment is likely to remain low as the mood music around an ailing economy impacts their willingness to spend, the RTT concluded.
The RHI has recorded a deterioration of retail health every quarter since Spring 2022 and this is predicted to continue in the first half of 2024, hitting 66 points by the close of the first quarter of 2024, a figure last seen in the height of the pandemic in 2020 when the UK was in lockdown.
While the opening months of 2024 are likely to see a continued downturn in consumer demand, especially in non-food categories, it is just the calm before the storm as the second quarter will see the sector hit by rising costs, including a hike in the minimum wage and a 6.7 per cent business rate increase for most retailers, it noted.
While demand is likely to pick up in Spring 2024 as consumer confidence builds, rising costs will hit retailers, particularly those whose finances are not stabilized, RTT concluded, signaling potentially higher insolvency rates for small retailers and a boost in M&A activity – particularly in fashion and pure online retail, where there will be pressure on consolidation.
Highlights from the KPMG/RetailNext Retail Health Index included:
Savers enjoying higher interest rates are unlikely to be tempted to spend savings in early 2024
Health and beauty are expected to be the only non-food category to see growth in the opening months of 2024
Luxury retail and big-ticket categories will continue to experience a downturn in sales
Sales growth for the big supermarkets in 2024 is likely to be more subdued, with the boost from grocery price inflation dropping away and pressure on volumes continuing
Growth in 2024 will come from the discount and value retail channels
London retailers face a ‘double whammy’ of rising business rates given the bulk of London’s retailers are multiples, and the fact that business rates in London are significantly higher than in the rest of the UK
Further promotional activity is expected as retailers look to clear down excess stock and react to falling consumer demand
Commenting on the RHI, Paul Martin, UK head of retail at KPMG, said: “Despite Black Friday sales going deeper and lasting longer than last year, indicators so far are that Christmas trading this year has been one of the worst since the pandemic hit, and although there is still all to play for in the final weeks of December, it is looking as if it’s too late turn fortunes around.
“Whilst food retailing sales growth has been weaker than seen over Christmas last year, sales of non-essential goods have been deteriorating rapidly and will continue to do so as consumers keep an even tighter grip on the household purse strings.
“It has taken a long time for the economic challenges to feed through to consumer resilience, but it looks as if it’s happening now, and is set to stay with us, at least until spring. The UK retail sector will likely continue to see significant downward pressures on demand, and margin, for the early part of 2024 but this could turn a corner by April, just as hefty increases in minimum wage and business rates hit the bottom line. Retailers will be holding their breath for some good news in the chancellor’s Budget in March.
“Retailers have been remarkably resilient over the last few years and are now well versed in being agile to cope with economic shocks and changing consumer demands. Pressures on consumers from high inflation may be easing, but the economy faces headwinds from the lagged impact of monetary policy tightening and rigid fiscal policy settings. For the next few months, we expect the retail sector to continue to tread water as it moves from dealing with one shock to another.”
Kepak Group has announced the acquisition of Summit Foods, a UK-based company specialising in chilled and frozen convenience foods. With annual revenues of £24 million and a team of 200 employees, Summit Foods is an established player in the UK’s convenience food sector. The acquisition, is part of Kepak’s strategic plan to further grow its food business organically and via acquisition.
“We are pleased to welcome Summit Foods to the Kepak Group," said Brian Farrell, CEO of Kepak Foods. "This acquisition aligns with our growth strategy, developing our presence in the UK convenience and out-of-home food channels. Summit's portfolio of fresher for longer sandwiches, chilled and frozen meals & snacks complements our existing micro snacking offerings and allows us to deepen our presence across these markets”.
Summit Foods will continue to operate from its current base in Preston, with no immediate changes to its operations, branding, or customer offerings. The leadership team from Summit will remain in place for a six-month transition period to facilitate a smooth transition.
Kepak plans to leverage its existing distribution network and market expertise to support future growth for Summit Foods. This acquisition strengthens Kepak’s position in the UK’s growing Food To Go and micro-snacking market, valued at £6.8 billion.
Kepak remains focused on delivering business as usual for Summit’s customers and employees, the acquisition provides opportunities for long-term growth. For the immediate future, the two companies will work closely to align operations and explore potential synergies, particularly in the areas of product development and distribution.
Managing Director of Mangrove Global and outspoken industry commentator, Nick Gillett, has provided his reaction to the Labour Government’s Autumn Budget. With doom and gloom forecast by the media well in advance of the Budget’s publication – the new fiscal regime was never expected to be "good for business". That said, there will be many in the hospitality and spirits industries wondering exactly how they’ll manage when the bulk of changes take effect in April next year. Nick says it’s an age-old tale of the government introducing more costs and offering no assistance:
“Prior to the Budget being announced, I said the best we could hope for as an industry was to be left well alone. But sadly, that was a pipe dream.
“And whilst the unprofessional trailing of details hinted it was going to be a lot worse than it was – it’s still nothing to shout about. A vast increase in employment costs, rises to alcohol duty for spirits, and a lessening of the rates relief currently available to the hospitality sector, means that more businesses are bound go under.
“Since Covid and Brexit, many companies have never fully recovered, continuing to operate on the slightest of margins – and these added costs and lessening of support will be the final nail in the coffin for many.”
Since Covid, the Hospitality, Retail, and Leisure sectors have received significant business rates relief to help bolster the struggling sector – in the last few years the relief has remained at 75 per cent. This was hard fought for by industry lobbyists such as UKHospitality, in an attempt to protect businesses and employees alike. In the last Autumn Statement the Conservative Government extended the relief by another year, and still 50 venue closures a month were reported in the first six months of 2024. The latest Budget marks the end of the current relief, with a reduction to 40 per cent confirmed for April 2025.
He added: “To fully understand how damaging this is for hospitality, you need to go way back. The sector was first struck by Covid and the lockdowns. It was hit by increasing costs in alcohol, thanks to increased duty and bureaucracy. Cost of living continues to reduce disposable income and custom. And Brexit has forced out swathes of the workforce that was the lifeblood of the industry.
“Now, the Government continues to pile on costs – and we’ll need to wait and see if any of this actually increases the public’s spending power by putting more money in their pockets. One thing that is for sure – the only way businesses will survive is by increasing prices. And that will have an added effect on inflation.”
The Autumn Budget also detailed a mixed bag of changes that will affect spirits producers - including alcohol duty. Whilst duty on alcoholic drinks served on "draught" will reduce by 1.7 per cent, wine, spirits, bottled beers, and cider will see duty rise by retail price inflation. Both the lower and higher rates of the soft drink levy will also increase to £1.94 and £2.59 per ten litres respectively. Not only will this push up the price of tipple for great British drinkers, but it will also stifle growth.
“Previous, recent rises in alcohol duty have shown that the rise is passed onto consumers, leading to fewer sales, and less money raised for the treasury. So, to confirm another rise seems illogical," Nick continued.
“But let’s get this straight. The hospitality and spirits industries are bursting with talented, creative, and entrepreneurial people. Where these businesses thrive, local economies succeed.
“As much as the Government’s Budget hasn’t gifted us any giveaways, I have no doubt the industry will pull together, weather the storm, and come out the other side. All off the back of the exceptional people behind it.
“And when that happens – the UK economy will once again reap the benefits our success, as it always does.”
The retail technology company Jisp is set to launch its “Jispmas” seasonal campaign to drive additional sales for its brand and retailer partners, and special savings on a range of products for its shoppers.
Jisp introduced its Jispmas campaign two years ago and it proved a huge success for retailers, creating added opportunities for engagement and incremental sales. The campaign has grown in success each year since launch.
Redemptions of the Jispmas promotions through the Scan & Save app jumped by 877 per cent in 2023 versus its inaugural year (2022), with retail sales for the campaign also jumping a massive 807 per cent year-on-year.
The Jispmas campaign in 2023 performed 95 per cent better than a standard promotional period* in terms of retail sales value, demonstrating the impact the campaign has in driving sales for brands and retailers.
The Jispmas campaign provides two opportunities to promote a different special deal daily for a period of 12 days in both November and December** and this year features brands such as Brewdog, Asahi, KP Snacks, Pladis and Hovis.
KP Snacks, Asahi and Hovis all ranked in the top five most popular brand deals in 2023’s promotion, and their return in 2024 is further recognition of the power of Jispmas as a sales driver.
Alex Rimmer
“Jispmas has performed extremely well for us over the last two years providing added theatre and increasing the opportunities for brands to get their products in front of customers with a tantalising discount to aid purchase,” said Jisp’s marketing and communications director, Alex Rimmer.
“The campaign has delivered improved results each year and has been proven to secure an uplift in sales across the promoted products for both brands and retailers, with retailers enjoying the added benefit of increased incremental sales in store.”
The deals are communicated through Jisp’s omni-channel retail media platform, comprising targeted emails, push notifications, in-app pushes, digital advertising, social media and more.
Jisp’s Scan & Save still runs promotions through the entirety of these three-week promotional periods (20/11/24 - 10/12/24 & 11/12/24 - 31/12/24), ensuring no one misses out, but the special Jispmas deals receive additional daily promotion providing added value for brands.
*Comparison is between the two three-week promotional periods prior to the two three-week promotional periods of Jispmas.
**Jispmas campaign runs from 20/11/24 to 01/12/24 and then from 11/12/24 to 22/12/24
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Volumatic employees ‘Wear It Pink’ to support Breast Cancer Now, with Mandy House positioned second from right
Employees from cash handling experts Volumatic have taken part in a special "Wear It Pink" day to raise money for cancer charity, Breast Cancer Now.
Around 40 staff members based at Volumatic’s Head Office in Coventry donned something pink – from socks, scarves and wigs to full head-to-toe outfits in pink, to raise funds for a charity very close to their hearts.
Having been affected by breast cancer both within her own family and team at work, Volumatic Customer Service Representative Mandy House organised the charity day, which took place on 18 October to help raise money for the 600,000 people currently living with breast cancer in the UK.
Not only did Mandy encourage her colleagues to wear something pink for the day and decorate the staff canteen in pink, but she also arranged a pink bake sale, held games and sweepstakes for everyone to take part in throughout the day, all themed around the charity.
Mandy also made an impassioned speech at the start of the day, encouraging everyone to check themselves regularly for signs of cancer and to seek medical help for even the slightest concern – highlighting that prompt action really can make a difference and save lives.
Thanks to the generosity of everyone throughout the day, the Volumatic team raised £656, a sum that was then doubled by the Volumatic Board, to make a fantastic final total of £1,312.
Breast Cancer Now is the UK’s largest breast cancer charity with the aim of changing the lives of anyone affected by breast cancer with both research and support. As well as funding world-class researchers to develop better treatments, preventable measures and earlier diagnoses, they also provide a helpline, health information and support services for those affected and their loved ones.
Mandy, who has worked for Volumatic for over 25 years, was thrilled with the amount of money raised and praised her colleagues for their fundraising efforts. “A huge thanks to everyone at Volumatic for taking part in ‘Wear It Pink’ day. It was so amazing to see so many in pink – especially our Sales Manager Tom, who wore pink shorts for the day! I personally laughed a lot on Friday and the spirit of Volumatic and the coming together was fantastic!”
James Harris, Managing Director at Volumatic, said: “We always choose a different charity to support every year, and when Mandy suggested raising money for Breast Cancer Now, we all wanted to get behind the ‘Wear It Pink’ day for this extremely worthy cause.
“Cancer is a terrible disease in all its forms and several members of the Volumatic team are dealing with it right now, either personally or through their immediate family. I would like to thank Mandy for leading this fundraiser to help treatment continue to get better for all concerned,” he added.
Following the initial response condemning the Budget as 'the most damaging for independent retailers in recent memory' from the British Independent Retailers Association (Bira), members have shared their stark reactions to the triple burden of doubled business rates, increased National Insurance, and higher minimum wage costs.
Multiple retailers have calculated specific impacts on their businesses, with costs ranging from £90,000 to £150,000 per year.
"This budget was horrendous for us as a company. Estimated costs to be around £110,000 - £120,000 per year," said Andrew Massey of Masseys DIY in Swadlincote, Derbyshire.
The immediate impact on employment is already evident. Peter Massey of R Massey & Son Ltd, employing 38 staff, said: "We decided last night that we will not replace the next two members of staff that leave. We are also considering what to do with our coffee shop that employs quite a few youngsters."
Kevin Arthur of Pewsey RadioVision in Wiltshire highlighted the broader staffing implications: "The minimum wage rising to £25.5k per year (40hr week) is scandalous. Having to pay this type of salary for your most basic of employees will mean less employees, resentment amongst 'more valuable' staff who believe they are 'worth' far more than a basic employee, and less ability to pay staff bonuses. I am now looking to reduce staff hours, reduce staff numbers, and Christmas bonuses will be curtailed and any other 'perks' reduced."
A store owner in the South West, whose business has traded for over a century, revealed: "Prior to the budget we were looking at taking on a new store and creating 12 new jobs. The colossal impact that Labour has imposed on our business means that not only will this new store not happen, but we will be reviewing our sites and having to make redundancies in order to survive."
William Coe, of Coes in Ipswich, highlighted the challenge facing customer-focused businesses: "We all want the same thing – Growth – however for growth businesses need to make a profit to enable them to invest. With the cost rises put upon them yesterday this gets harder and harder especially for the retail and leisure sectors where the ability to make savings through technology is limited."
John Jones, Managing Partner of Philip Morris Direct in Hereford, warned: "We've been saying for months that the issue for small business is the cumulative effect of so many extra costs. These add up to a level of costs that just aren't sustainable, and I fear there will be a blood bath of small business on the high street."
The impact threatens the very existence of some long-established businesses.
A West Midlands clothing retailer with over 100 years of trading history confirmed they are "closing the doors in the near future," adding that "the cumulative effect of the rate hike, NI increase and the Minimum Living Wage increases mean that already emptying towns will become wastelands."
For smaller independents, the situation is particularly acute. Tracey Clark of Albert's Hardware in Somerset revealed: "I work in excess of 70 hrs a week with little to no personal financial gain. I can't see myself surviving the next six months."
The disparity between high street retailers and online competition was highlighted by several members, with concerns raised about UK-based businesses bearing the cost burden while international competitors selling cheap imported clothing operate with minimal tax liability.
A Greater Manchester fashion retailer emphasised the disconnect between policy makers and small business reality: "They are completely detached from reality. They need someone advising that has lived and breathed a small business. There should at least have been a threshold where businesses below a certain turnover aren't hit by these things."
The impact extends beyond retail to related sectors.
A West Midlands builders' merchant warned of broader economic consequences. The owner said: "The Government has put the boot in to small business. We are paying for everything. Farmers are in real trouble now and the economy will suffer. They went round telling businesses rates were unfair and would sort it out, then just put them up. They lied to us all and now jobs will go and inflation will rise."
Many retailers expressed frustration at what they see as broken promises. A Birmingham-based jewellery store owner said: "High Streets are the cash cow for Governments and when most have disappeared, they will scratch their heads and wonder why."
The combined impact of these measures threatens not just individual businesses but entire local economies. With many retailers already reporting worse trading conditions - Bira's recent survey showed 46% reported worse trading in early 2024 compared to 2023 - these additional costs could prove the final straw for many independent businesses.
Andrew Goodacre, CEO of Bira said: "For some, the Budget has forced immediate operational decisions. Several retailers mentioned reviewing staffing levels, reconsidering expansion plans, and in some cases, accelerating closure plans. The impact on future generations is particularly concerning, with multiple family businesses questioning their long-term viability."
A Midlands hardware store owner summed up the common challenge: "This will make trading near impossible with wage increases and the business rates, and no one wants to pay any more for goods."