The latest findings highlighted by Lumina Intelligence Convenience Tracking Programme reveal a shift towards lighter shopping trips, the impact of weather on daytime meal occasions, and strategic growth in forecourt impulse purchases driven by expanded meal deal offerings.
The Convenience Tracking Programme has uncovered significant shifts in the UK's convenience shopping landscape, indicating a continued rise in market penetration with a notable trend towards "lighter" shopping. The number of shoppers in the market has grown, with an impressive +2.8 percentage point increase in year-on-year penetration. Managed convenience channels are driving much of this growth, reflecting heightened consumer interest in convenience store options.
However, while more shoppers are making trips to convenience outlets, they are increasingly favouring lighter shopping trips. The data indicates a -10 per cent decrease in items per trip, paired with a modest -0.4 per cent decline in total spend per visit. This shift suggests a consumer preference for smaller, more frequent purchases as opposed to larger basket sizes, with customers prioritising efficiency and value.
The data also revealed an increase in share for daytime meal occasions, rising by +0.8 percentage points. This shift is partly due to a rebalancing in food-to-go purchases, which peaked last year during an extended period of favourable weather. This year’s comparatively poorer weather has driven shoppers to consume more meals at home, leading to a greater focus on in-home meal preparation. Consumers are purchasing ingredients and essentials to make meals at home, highlighting a sustained demand for convenient meal solutions that align with at-home dining.
In an otherwise stabilised market, forecourts have emerged as a unique growth channel for impulse purchases, registering a +1.3 percentage point increase year-on-year. Meal deals have been a pivotal driver of this growth, up +4.1ppts as a reason for purchasing on impulse. Leading forecourt operators, including BP and Shell, have expanded meal deal offerings in partnership with established retailers, delivering enhanced value and variety to time-pressed consumers. This strategic move addresses the evolving needs of busy shoppers, who are seeking quick, affordable meal solutions.
October saw shop prices fall marginally further into deflation for the third consecutive month with food inflation eased, particularly for meat, fish and tea along with chocolate and sweets as retailers treated customers to spooky season deals, shows industry data released today (29).
According to British Retail Consortium (BRC), shop price deflation was at 0.8 per cent in October, down from deflation of 0.6 per cent in the previous month. This is below the 3-month average rate of -0.6 per cent. Shop price annual growth was at its lowest rate since August 2021.
Food inflation slowed to 1.9 per cent in October, down from 2.3% in September. This is above the 3-month average rate of 2.1 per cent . The annual rate continues to ease in this category and inflation remained at its lowest rate since November 2021.
Fresh Food inflation decelerated in October, to 1.0 per cent , down from 1.5 per cent in September. This is below the 3-month average rate of 1.2 per cent . Inflation was its lowest since October 2021.
Ambient Food inflation decelerated to 3.1 per cent in October, down from 3.3 per cent in September. This is below the 3-month average rate of 3.3 per cent and remained at its lowest since March 2022.
Helen Dickinson OBE, Chief Executive of the BRC, said, “October saw shop prices fall marginally further into deflation for the third consecutive month. Food inflation eased, particularly for meat, fish and tea as well as chocolate and sweets as retailers treated customers to spooky season deals. In non-food, discounting meant prices fell for electricals such as mobile phones, and DIY as retailers capitalised on the recent pick-up in the housing market.
“With fashion sales finally turning a corner this Autumn, prices edged up slightly for the first time since January as retailers started to unwind the heavy discounting seen over the past year.”
“Households will welcome the continued easing of price inflation, but this downward trajectory is vulnerable to ongoing geopolitical tensions, the impact of climate change on food supplies, and costs from planned and trailed Government regulation. Retail is already paying more than its fair share of taxes compared to other industries.
“The Chancellor using tomorrow’s Budget to introduce a Retail Rates Corrector, a 20 per cent downwards adjustment, to the business rates bills of all retail properties will allow retailers to continue to offer the best possible prices to customers while also opening shops, protecting jobs and unlocking investment.”
Mike Watkins, Head of Retailer and Business Insight, NielsenIQ, said, “Inflation in the food supply chain continues to ease and this helped slow the upward pressure of shop price inflation in October, however other cost pressures remain.
“Consumers remain uncertain about when and where to spend and with Christmas promotions now kicking in, competition for discretionary spend will intensify in both food and non-food retailing.”
An exclusive look at the challenges and opportunities for retail businesses, as revealed in the Future of the High Street report the Federation of Small Businesses.
Supporting pop-ups for new businesses, creating mobile phone-based loyalty programmes and helping bricks and mortar businesses improve their online presence are some of the recommendations set out to revive the UK’s villages, towns and city centres, in a major new report by the Federation of Small Businesses (FSB).
The Future of the High Street report builds up a picture of small firms in and around the high street, including the retail sector, and sets out a vision to help transform high streets into places that meet future needs and support the next generation of entrepreneurs.
The report revealed that the biggest risks for local high streets, according to the retail businesses based on them, were falling consumer spending (74%), rising online shopping and delivery services (55%), plummeting footfall (53%) and crime or anti-social behaviour (48%).
Almost two thirds (63%) of local retail and wholesale small businesses say a diverse range of independent businesses is one of the most important factors for the future of their local high street.
Tina McKenzie
Tina McKenzie, policy chair at the FSB, notes that these businesses also need to be “well equipped” for the future.
“The retail and wholesale sector has been hard hit in recent years, with pressure from the cost-of-living crisis, as well as increasing energy and supply costs and the tightening of consumer purse strings,” she says.
“On top of this there’s been seismic changes on the retail scene in recent decades, with the growth of chain stores, the introduction of out-of-town retail and the arrival of the internet all making their mark. Our high streets continue to evolve and that’s why it’s so important that small businesses at their heart are well equipped for the future.”
The report, which features in depth analysis following a large-scale survey of small businesses, suggests a specialised fund to support mobile phone-based loyalty programmes for high street firms and launching community-specific online marketplaces to showcase local shops and services.
Loyalty schemes tailored to local retailers and communities can encourage repeat visits, higher spending, and a stronger sense of connection between shoppers and their high street. The research found that some sectors on the high street are more likely to offer and make use of these loyalty schemes such as food and beverage businesses (36%) and retail (22%).
The business group’s report is also calling for local authorities to finance support for pop-ups, markets, and temporary use initiatives for first-time businesses to encourage new ventures and help them set up on the high street. This could benefit business owners who are already utilising the benefits of social media to create businesses and interact with customers, but who want a physical presence on the high street.
(Photo: FSB)
Sheri-Ann Bhim started her online business during the Covid-19 pandemic, creating and selling greetings cards and gifts online. Currently selling online from her home in London allows her time to engage with her customer base across the country and develop her products.
The entrepreneur has considered expanding into a retail store that would provide her with storage space but is put off by the challenges that come alongside a physical shop, like “business rates and other overheads”.
“The high street seems so volatile in comparison to online. Yes, online sales can go up or down, but you don’t have as much investment or overheads in comparison to being on the high street,” Bhim says.
“It would be great to have more use of flexible space on the high street. I would love to have a pop-up shop from February to June, so from Valentine’s Day to Father’s Day and maybe two months ahead of Christmas as they’re busy periods for card sales. In the summer when my business isn’t so busy another small independent retailer could take over.”
The future of the high street “needs to be flexible” she adds. “It won’t be the same bricks and mortar businesses that have been there for 200 years, it will have a range of businesses that change with the season. We need to move away from long leases - flexibility is key.”
The integration of physical high street presence with online commerce is vital for the survival and growth of small businesses. With 39 per cent of local businesses selling to their customers via their own website it’s important that high streets remain competitive and appealing to consumers via their online presence.
Abdul Arain
Abdul Arain, owner of Al-Amin grocery store in Cambridge, emphasises the importance of small independent firms being helped to showcase their businesses online.
“Traditionally we have shops on the high street that are independent, then you have [stores like] Tesco Express and Sainsburys, which have a much stronger corporate identity and are more visible. If they want high streets to have a variety of businesses, something needs to be done to allow local businesses to be recognised for what they are offering. That would be powerful and could have large gains for small businesses,” he says.
FSB’s report suggests support could range from basic online marketing and advertising strategies, to utilising online platforms for retail only businesses. To help bridge the gap between more traditional retail and digital marketplaces, a fund could be introduced to support businesses develop their own websites and e-commerce operations.
“As well as core recommendations targeting fundamental issues for small firms on the high street, including business rates, transport and parking, this report also lays out innovative asks to ensure these businesses can survive into the future and ultimately help revive our town centres,” McKenzie says.
“High streets must be helped to evolve to changes in consumer behaviour as well as how small firms want to work. Introducing loyalty schemes should encourage local businesses to collaborate and incentivise consumers to shop, eat, and drink locally.
“We heard from many online small firms who want to take steps to open up in a bricks and mortar premises on the high street and this is exciting to hear. These businesses need support to make that change – and should be given the flexibility to access pop-up and temporary units.”
According to the report’s other findings, empty units are a major blight on shopping streets across the UK, with more than two thirds (69%) of local businesses reporting them on their nearby high street. FSB is asking for a band of on-site high street chiefs responsible for the growth and wellbeing of high streets across the country, creating promotion plans and monitoring vacant units within their area.
(Photo: FSB)
The research also highlights the need for well-maintained and accessible modern public toilets and family-friendly services like creche facilities, encouraging visitors to stay longer, upping footfall and supporting the local economy.
Business rates remain a huge burden on high street small businesses, with the current Small Business Rate Relief (SBRR) a key part of their survival. Half (50%) of local retail and wholesale small businesses say they would not survive without SBRR. With more than half (54%) of high street small businesses claiming they would invest in or grow their businesses if the SBRR threshold was increased from £12,000 of rateable value to £25,000, FSB believes doing so would be a crucial step in allowing small firms to further foster growth.
The report calls for a high street hop scheme providing free bus fares on key routes during peak shopping days to help increase footfall. Offering free parking on at least two Saturdays and two additional days a month, would bring in more visitors and support local businesses by making high streets more accessible, it adds.
A third (34%) of local retail and wholesale small firms say a reduced ability to accept cash payments in the future would pose one of the biggest risks to their local high street. The report calls for a Banking Hub Setup Fund, paid for by high street banks to cover the cost of setting up a hub on a high street, supporting local economies and ensuring essential financial services remain available to businesses and the community.
“Our small businesses are an integral part of the high street and will be central in leading the transformation of their local economies. By providing the infrastructure, flexibility and digital connectivity that modern businesses demand, high streets will then have the resources available to become resilient, dynamic hubs ready for the future,” McKenzie concludes.
The number of adults in England who report vaping for more than six months has increased substantially from around one in 80 in 2013 to one in 10 in 2023, according to a new study led by UCL researchers.
The study, published in The BMJ, found that much of this increase had occurred since 2021, coinciding with the rapid rise in popularity of disposable vapes, especially among young adults, including those who had never regularly smoked.
It was already established that vaping rates have increased substantially in England since new disposable e-cigarettes became popular in mid-2021, particularly among adolescents and young adults, but it was unclear how far this reflected an increase in experimental use versus long term (more than six months) regular use, the researchers noted.
Little was also known about how the types of products used by long term vapers were changing over time.
To explore this further, researchers drew on data for 179,725 adults taking part in the Smoking Toolkit Study, a nationally representative survey that collects detailed data on vaping among adults in England each month.
Between October 2013 and October 2023, participants were asked about use of a range of nicotine products, depending on their smoking status.
Those who reported vaping for more than six months were considered long-term vapers. Details of vaping frequency (daily or non-daily), main type of device used (disposable, refillable, or pod), age, sex, and occupational social grade were also recorded.
Over the study period, the proportion of adults reporting long-term vaping increased from 1.3 per cent in October 2013 to 10 per cent in October 2023, with a particularly sharp rise from 2021. This included an increase in long-term daily vaping, from 0.6 per cent to 6.7 per cent.
The increase in long term vaping occurred predominantly among current and former smokers, but a recent rise also occurred among those who had never regularly smoked (from less than 0.5 per cent up to March 2021 to 3 per cent by October 2023).
Growth was also more pronounced in young adults (reaching 23 per cent of 18-year-olds v 4.3 per cent of 65-year-olds) including among those who had never regularly smoked (reaching 16 per cent of 18-year-olds v 0.3 per cent of 65-year-olds).
The rate of long-term vaping was higher among men than women between June 2015 and December 2022, but by October 2023 the rates were similar between men and women.
The rate of long-term vaping was also consistently higher among those from less advantaged social grades compared with more advantaged social grades.
The researchers also note that half of long-term vapers now mainly or exclusively use disposable devices.
“Our results show there has been an exceptionally steep rise in the number of young adults vaping for more than six months since new disposable e-cigarettes were introduced to the market. While most long-term vapers have a history of smoking, rates have also increased among those who have never regularly smoked,” lead author Dr Sarah Jackson, of the UCL Institute of Epidemiology & Health Care, said.
“In addition to helping people quit smoking, vaping is probably diverting some people away from ever starting to smoke, which will reduce their exposure to harmful toxicants.
“However, it is likely that a growing number of adults who vape would not have otherwise smoked. For these people, vaping regularly over a sustained period will expose them to more harm than if they had neither smoked nor vaped.”
Senior author Professor Jamie Brown, of the UCL Institute of Epidemiology & Health Care, added: “New vaping policies are needed to curb youth vaping in England but must be balanced to avoid discouraging smokers from using vaping products to quit smoking.
“Policies most likely to achieve this balance may be those focused on retail displays, appealing product design and packaging, product descriptions and cost.
“England has excellent vaping and smoking surveillance and will be able to provide a rapid indication of the extent to which new policies achieve these goals. Future regulations should include a degree of flexibility to allow recalibration as required.”
As the study was observational, no firm conclusions can be drawn about cause and effect, and the authors acknowledged several limitations relating to study design and measures that may have influenced their results.
More cases of spirits such as vodka and whisky than of wine are set to be sold globally, a report from the World Spirits Alliance predicted on Wednesday, as drinking preferences have shifted.
The report, whose predictions came from Oxford Economics and alcohol market research firm IWSR, said 2.67 billion cases of spirits were sold in 2022, almost as many as the 2.8 billion cases of wine sold that year.
"Should current trends in both categories continue, spirits volumes will soon surpass those of wine," it said.
Trends, including a shift towards drinking fewer, more expensive drinks, notably a growing range of cocktails, have seen spirits displace wine.
The wine industry has faced a global supply glut, difficult weather and falling demand, which has hit a 27-year low. Beer companies are also grappling with a shift to spirits in some markets.
By the numbers
Beer accounted for 75.2 per cent of total beverage alcohol volumes in 2022, followed by wine at 10.4 per cent and spirits at 9.9 per cent
In terms of the value of sales in 2022, spirits accounted for 40 per cent of total beverage alcohol sales followed by beer at 38.1 per cent and wine at 17.6 per cent
Indian whisky is set to be the fastest growing spirits category between 2022 and 2027, growing by 50 million cases, with tequila, rum and gin all expected to rise between 10 and 20 million cases. Cognac and armagnac are set to grow the least in the spirits market.
The production and sale of spirits contributed some $730 billion to the global economy in 2022, when activity ranging from farming and manufacturing to shipping and sales in shops, bars and restaurants is included.
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Illegal tobacco and non-compliant vapes seized from Rushden shops (Photo: North Northamptonshire Council)
Buying illegal tobacco products is in danger of becoming normalised behaviour, with four in 10 (43 per cent) adult smokers now finding themselves comfortable with the idea of buying cigarettes, even if they know they are produced or sold illegally, a new study has found.
The report, "Fighting the Dark Underworld: How the illegal trade in tobacco threatens to overwhelm us", noted that compromised living standards are forcing greater numbers of consumers into making difficult lifestyle decisions, creating ripe environments for criminals to push a larger number of smokers towards cheaper illegal channels and illegal products.
The study commissioned by JTI sheds new light on the pervasiveness of organised crime within global society, focusing on four countries with high levels of illicit tobacco trade: Canada, France, Philippines, and the UK.
“A combination of factors ranging from poor border controls and ineffective penalties to corruption, excessive taxation and legislation, are contributing to both the increase in demand for illicit products while making it easier for criminals to grow substantial criminal empires,” said Vincent Byrne, global anti-illicit trade operations director, JTI.
The report highlights key indicators – found across the four countries – that are allowing illegal trade to flourish, and these include excessive taxation and loss in government revenue globally that funds criminal activity, the challenge to enforcement due to the rapid technological progress, not cracking down on illegal tobacco trade to curb other serious crime and existing penalties being not severe enough to deter criminals, along with the cost of living crisis, which leads to black market purchasing decisions.
According to the World Bank, governments globally are estimated to be losing out on $40-50 billion annually in excise alone due to consumers being lured into buying illegal tobacco products. According to 88 per cent surveyed in the study, governments’ inability to collect tax revenue because of illegal trade is a significant issue.
The criminal shift towards e-commerce and the advancement of Artificial Intelligence is leading to an increased sophistication of production, distribution, and sale of illegal goods. Of those adult smokers surveyed, 14 per cent have claimed to have recently purchased illegal tobacco via social channels.
The study found that policy makers underestimate the extent of the worry for the public, with 50 per cent of respondents citing illegal tobacco trade as being a threat to their country, which is close to parity with those citing drugs/narcotics (54 per cent) and terrorism (49 per cent) as national dangers. The sale of illegal tobacco is not a victimless crime, according to 61 per cent of those surveyed.
“While the drivers fueling illegal trade are evident in each of the four countries, they have global impact,” Byrne said. “Given the borderless nature of illegal trade, in the future, countries that currently do not have an illicit tobacco problem, are advised to notice the triggers to avoid the onset and spread of criminality linked to illicit trade in their countries.”
The study found that 72 per cent of UK adult tobacco consumers would be happier paying the tax on tobacco products if the government spent more of these taxes on law enforcement.
While many UK authorities, including Customs & Excise, Trading Standards, Border Force, the police, and the National Crime Agency, have significant roles to play in tackling illegal trade, often times they have conflicting and overlapping responsibilities and dwindling resources.
The HMRC estimates that in 2021, the loss in revenue to the UK exchequer due to illegal tobacco trade was a steep £2.5 billion.
This comes as the country is experiencing its largest ever cost-of-living crisis, with public debt standing at over 184 per cent GDP, and with 11.7 million of the UK’s 67 million population living in poverty according to official figures.
The report says harsher deterrents and penalties are needed for criminals who are only too eager to exploit these loopholes.