In changing climate, retailers turning to weather strategies
Retailers use weather data for advertising, inventory and pricing decisions
A shopper gazes at empty shelves that contained bottled water in a supermarket in Falls Church, VA, as a severe snowstorm hits the Washington D.C. area February 5, 2010.
Big-name retailers such as Walmart are increasingly using analytics to blunt the impact of one of the most unpredictable performance variables of shopping: weather.
Weather data, once used strictly for inventory planning, is now helping retailers localise advertising and decide when to discount seasonal items such as sweaters.
Walmart, whose inventory planning with artificial-intelligence software incorporates weather analysis, reduced sunscreen prices a couple weeks earlier than usual this year in parts of the US. Weather data forecasting a wetter-than-usual autumn in some US regions was a factor in its decision, whereas several years ago, it likely would not have been, said Kirby Doyle, a skin-care category replenishment adviser to the world's biggest retailer.
"In the beginning, (weather data) was just a forecast model for high-level planning," said Doyle, who works for Beiersdorf, which makes personal-care products. "Now we’re infusing it into pre-season planning and throughout the season to diagnose the impact of weather, and for things like scheduling promotions.”
A niche group of weather consultants — from Germany's Meteonomiqs to US firms Planalytics and Weather Trends International — is using breakthroughs such as cloud computing to process once-unimaginable amounts of data.
Demand for such data is growing amid heightened weather volatility due to climate change. The National Retail Federation in the US, which is chaired by a Walmart executive, issued a report with Planalytics in July, recommending retailers pay more attention to weather analysis.
New weather-data tools, centred on pricing, may soon be hitting the market. Planalytics and BearingPoint, a management consultancy, are partnering to build software retailers can integrate into their analytical models for setting prices.
“Weather is something you can’t control,” BearingPoint managing consultant Ryan Orabone said at an industry workshop last month to unveil the new initiative. “But you can control the analytics. And pricing, you absolutely control.”
It is natural for a warm October, like this year's in the US, to cause retailers to sweat ahead of the holidays. "It needs to get cold for our business to really perform well in Q4,” Tractor Supply CEO Hal Lawton said last month on a quarterly call.
The company, which uses weather analytics, sells cold-weather products like heating pellets and outerwear.
Weather analytics can help companies like Tractor Supply decide whether to discount winter items, said Planalytics CEO Fred Fox, whose clients include Dick's Sporting Goods and Ross Stores.
If November temperatures in the US drop below 2023 levels - which forecasts suggest is likely - a discount now could mean a missed opportunity later, Fox said.
As intuitive as that may seem to a retailer, they do not always get it right.
In August, Lowe's chief financial officer Brandon Sink cited cold, wet weather in May as the reason for weaker sales in the prior quarter.
But that description is inaccurate, said Bill Kirk, founder of Weather Trends, whose clients include Target, Gap, and Tractor Supply.
May was indeed wet, Kirk's data shows, but not cold. It was the hottest May in six years for the US, he said, and third-hottest in four decades. "Welcome to the world of retail excuses not based on facts," he said.
Rising temps, rising demand
About every three weeks in the US, a natural disaster causes $1 billion or more in damages, according to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, up from once every three months in the 1980s.
Planalytics, which uses computer models to help retailers understand how weather affects sales, is on pace to provide clients with twice as many models in 2024 as it did last year, said Evan Gold, the company’s executive vice president of partnerships. Since 2019, that figure has shot up ninefold.
Retailers typically see weather's impact in foot traffic and sales, said Stefan Bornemann, head of Meteonomiqs, whose clients include retailers using the e-commerce platform Shopify. "The impact could get bigger, given more severe weather patterns,” he said.
Kirk has analysed how sales for a given product rise or fall with each degree of temperature change. Sales of horse blankets rise 7 per cent per degree colder and Starbucks coffee sales climb 2 per cent, he said.
Some clients use Kirk's data for so-called dynamic pricing, the practice of adjusting prices to demand. If a sales season looks particularly weak, clients may implement small markdowns early, rather than be forced to impose larger ones later to clear excess inventory, Kirk said.
The days of retailers using weather as an excuse for a poor earnings season should be over, he added.
“Wall Street hates that excuse,” Kirk said. “What you’re saying to your investors is, ’We can’t control our business.’”
New rules about how and where foods high in fat, salt and sugar (HFSS) can be promoted and displayed in larger shops and online have been passed by the Senedd.
The regulations are designed to prevent impulse purchases and over-consumption and expected to help to tackle the growing problem of obesity in Wales.
The Food (Promotion and Presentation) (Wales) Regulations 2025, which largely mirror rules already in place in England, will:
restrict promotions that can encourage over-consumption, such as multi-buy offers and free refills of sugary drinks
restrict the presentation of foods high in fat, sugar and salt products at prime selling locations such as store entrances, checkouts and website homepages
apply to medium and large businesses with 50 or more employees
The Welsh government said, citing research, up to 83 per cent of purchases made on promotion are impulse buys, with almost half (43%) of food and drink products in prominent store locations promoting sugary foods and drinks.
“These regulations are a key part of our strategy to tackle Wales’ growing obesity problem,” Welsh health secretary Jeremy Miles said after the vote in the Senedd.
“We want to make it easier for people to make healthier choices and we’ll achieve this by improving the food environment around them. If we ensure healthier food and drinks are more available, accessible and visible to people in shops and stores, it will support our efforts to reduce obesity rates and improve public health.”
Miles has earlier said that the government will continue to support businesses and local authorities to implement and enforce the requirements introduced by these regulations.
The regulations will come into force in March next year following a 12-month implementation period.
JET New North Road store in Ilford, London is expecting its flower sales to cross £85,000 this year from popular calendar days, including Mother’s Day, International Women’s Day and Valentine’s Day.
Tulips, roses and mixed bunches are among the bouquets expected to sell well this Mother’s Day weekend, with predicted sales of £20-25,000.
Valentine’s Day remains the most popular flower-buying event, with sales of £35,000, while the increasingly popular International Women’s Day celebration recently led to sales of £25,000 for the family-run business.
JET New North Road in Ilford
“We’ve seen our flower sales skyrocket over the years – helped along by calendar days like these,” Kayur Patel, business manager at JET New North Road, said.
“Flowers bring so much joy, and we’re proud to be a part of helping customers bring that joy to their loved ones with a beautiful bouquet!”
Offering high-quality flowers from Amsterdam and Kenya, the Ilford-based service station has become the go-to place for quality flowers in the community - with more than 1,000 customers expected to buy Mother’s Day flowers this weekend.
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Victoria Lockie leaves Unitas for a new adventure.
Unitas Wholesale retail director and executive board member Victoria Lockie is to leave the business in April as she looks to take on a new challenge, the buying group confirmed to Asian Trader today (27).
Lockie joined the business in September 2024.
In a span of six months, she has played a pivotal role in strategically reviewing the Unitas retail proposition and the overall service provided to Unitas members.
Heading up the retail and commercial functions, she has made a significant impact by identifying strategic opportunities, developing her team and revitalising Unitas’ DE&I agenda.
Managing Director John Kinney said, “I would like to thank Victoria for her hard work and commitment in the time that she has worked at Unitas. We all wish her the best of luck with her next opportunity.”
Lockie also oversaw Unitas' Plan for Profit scheme, which is a subscription service offering independent retailers business updates, rewards, and resources to help them succeed in the convenience market, including core range guides and promotional packages.
Prior to Unitas, Lockie spent more than 12 years at NISA.
Joining in 2012 as a sales support manager, Lockie served in positions such as head of retail operations and head of key accounts. Her time at Nisa was transformative, both for herself and the company.
She also led the symbol group’s retail team through significant transitions, including Nisa’s shift from a mutual-style ownership structure to a corporate governance model.
Lockie also became a trustee for MADL (Making A Difference Locally), where she worked to help independent retailers support their local communities.
She is an ambassador for Diversity in Wholesale, Women in Wholesale, GroceryAid, and WiHTL ‘Women to Watch 2024. or many years has heavily supported the Association of Convenience Stores including the more recent Shopkind campaign.
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Brian Eagle Brown with new ShopMate 360 EPoS solution
ShopMate has introduced ShopMate 360, a “streamlined and affordable” EPoS system designed for convenience retailers.
ShopMate said the new solution ihas been developed with small retailers in mind, offering an easy-to-use till interface that requires minimal training. With an intuitive design, even those new to retail technology can quickly get up to speed, ensuring smooth daily operations.
“One thing we often hear is that many EPoS systems come with complex features that small retailers just don’t need. Their tech needs to be smart, but that doesn’t mean loading it up with all the bells and whistles – it actually means the opposite,” Brian Eagle Brown, managing director at ShopMate, told Asian Trader.
The system separates store operations from business management, allowing retailers to focus on till functionality while still having access to key back-office tools like:
Product and category management
Hotkeys and SELs
Wholesaler promotions
User management and reporting
Retailers will benefit from automatic wholesaler pricing and promotions, removing the hassle of manual price updates and ensuring accurate pricing.
Helen and Andrew Wood of Edith Weston Village Store in Edith Weston, Rutland
Additionally, integrated payments with ShopMate Pay simplify payment workflows and reduce overhead costs, offering retailers a single, streamlined solution.
“We understand that convenience retailers need a reliable, easy-to-use solution that helps them run their stores efficiently,” Eagle Brown said. “ShopMate 360 delivers just that – essential functionality without distractions.”
Helen Wood, owner of Edith Weston Village Store, has been among the first to trial ShopMate 360 alongside ShopMate Pay. She praises its intuitive interface: “We’ve found the till interface intuitive and easy to use; everything is precisely where you think it should be. And ShopMate Pay works seamlessly, exactly as you hope it would – it’s just really easy.”
Among the last few tea drinkers, Brits still have profound loyalty for their cup of tea, with Yorkshire Tea standing out as a true favourite, shows a recent survey, also highlighting fall in the popularity of tea among younger generations.
According to a national survey of 6,000 adults by Tracksuit, brand tracking expert for more than 650 consumer labels, those who drink tea, Yorkshire Tea was crowned the favourite brew, surpassing its long-standing rivals PG Tips and Tetley.
Some 24 per cent of tea drinkers said that Yorkshire Tea was their favourite, ahead of PG Tips at 17 per cent and Tetley’s at 15 per cent. Twinings came fourth with 11 per cent, well ahead of Typhoo with 3 per cent.
The survey also found a striking level of loyalty among British tea drinkers, with 39 per cent refusing to switch from their preferred tea brand, which was far higher than the typical 13 per cent loyalty rate across food and drink brands generally.
However, the survey also shows lays bare the rapidly decreasing popularity of tea among younger generations.
Some 37 per cent of people aged under 35 said that they would choose coffee as their favourite hot drink, according to a national survey of 6,000 adults by Tracksuit, brand tracking expert for more than 650 consumer labels.
Tea came third with 25 per cent of those under 35 choosing it as their favourite drink, after hot chocolate in second with 31 per cent.
Analysts said that the figures “suggest [tea’s] popularity could continue to fall in future generations”, raising concerns that beloved cuppa could face extinction as Millennials and Gen Z prefer coffee and hot chocolate to the traditional brew.
Matt Herbert, the author of the report and co-founder of Tracksuit, said, “Our research uncovers the profound loyalty Brits have for their tea, with Yorkshire Tea standing out as a true favourite.
“The data reveals that brand preference goes far beyond taste; it’s an emotional connection. British tea drinkers are weirdly loyal, which speaks to how brands have successfully woven themselves into the fabric of daily life and national identity.”