New analysis from Suntory Beverage & Food GB&I (SBF GB&I) has revealed the increased importance of soft drinks to stores post-pandemic.
Study of the last ten years of soft drinks category data has also uncovered, for the first time, the true effect of Covid-19 on sales, and how this feeds into the category for the future.
The data shows that not only are soft drinks more important to retailers than ever before, but that there is also an opportunity to unlock an extra £1.2 billion in soft drink sales.
Between 2012and 2018, soft drink sales value grew from£13.4bn to just over £16bn – a total market growth in six years of 19.9 per cent.
As the pandemic took hold in 2020, there was a predictable initial sales dip which led to an overall annual sales drop to just under £15bn. Since that drop, however, sales have grown consistently to hit a high of almost £19bn in 2022. This represents sales growth in that period of an astonishing 27 per cent - demonstrating faster growth than pre-pandemic.
This growth is being driven by an overall rise in purchase frequency. Total soft drinks penetration – the number of households that buy a soft drink over a year – now stands at 95.2 per cent. This represents a rise from 90 per cent in 2012 and continued growth from 94.8 per cent in the summer immediately prior to the pandemic.
While soft drink prices have risen and inflation has played a part in value growth, there is a measurably increased appetite from shoppers to buy into the soft drinks category.
Changing habits and demographic drivers
Habits have changed since the pandemic. More people are buying into the category, and this is driven largely by growth across three key demographics – Pre-Families, Empty Nesters and Retirees. Men, in particular, are purchasing soft drinks more often than before – with a 3.7 per cent share change in consumption.
Not only are men purchasing more but, for the first time ever, they are purchasing more than women. An analysis of the frequency of purchase of soft drinks over the last 10 years shows that females consistently tracked above males by around 0.2 per cent. This continued until the middle of 2020, and since then the gap has widened. Overall frequency of purchases have grown across the piece, but now males purchase more frequently than females by 0.2 per cent.
More consistent sales
Sales have also seen less pronounced 'ups and downs' since the pandemic. While summer remains the biggest selling period, more people are buying into the category as part of their regular routines during the winter.
The gap between sales at the summer peak and the end of January (traditionally the point at which category sales are lowest) is narrowing. A comparison of the summer sales highs of 2013 and 2014, and the corresponding dips in January 2014 and 2015, reveals an average gap between the two of 5.6 percentage points.The gap between sales in August 2021 and the following winter, however, was only 3.7 percentage points.
Pre-pandemic, the lowest overall penetration point was 88.6 per cent. Since the pandemic, the lowest point has been 91.2 per cent, a 1.6 percentage point increase in households buying into the category at its lowest point. More people are buying into the category, more of the time.
Sales stimulated post-pandemic
Within the broader category trends, there are clear success stories. The performance of stimulation drinks post-pandemic, for example, is insightful.
In April 2020, as the pandemic was starting, penetration of stimulation drinks in the UK was at 5.8 per cent. This puts it almost exactly the same level as it was ten years prior. Since then, however, the category has spiked significantly, and continued to grow. In summer 2021, it reached 7.1 per cent, then a new high of 9 per cent in summer 2022.
The continued impact of the pandemic on the positive growth of stimulation sales can be seen through an analysis of the highest and lowest penetration points. In the three years leading into the pandemic, the midpoint of the penetration of the category was 3.4 per cent. The three years since the pandemic, this has risen to 3.7 per cent. More people are buying stimulation drinks, more of the time.
Alongside Stimulation sales, sport drinks have performed well since the pandemic. This tallies with a broader increase in focus on health following the impact of Covid-19. Penetration of sport drink sales grew by 66 per cent from February 2020 to February 2022. While a lower base than stimulation, the trend within Sports matches the upward swing in the broader Sports & Energy segment.
The amount of money spent per trip has seen similar growth across Colas, Bottled Water, Flavoured Carbs and Mixers as has been seen in the Stimulation segment.
Drinks sales are getting healthier!
Alongside this, another thing remains clear – health is here to stay. Key health aspects (lower in sugar; added vitamins; more natural drinks) of soft drink consumption have grown when compared with 2014. The number of occasions where soft drink shoppers cite health as the major reason for their purchase has grown to 8.3 per cent from 1.8 per cent in 2014.
The double-whammy of Covid-19 and the cost-of-living crisis has helped keep take-home drinks very firmly on the agenda. An analysis of volume sales (in litres bought) per household between 2013, and 2015 shows that the amount bought per household at the lowest sales point of the year was 17.4 litres. The average of the highest amounts bought at the busiest sales point across those three years was 20.5 litres. In 2020, ‘21 and ‘22, those numbers sat at 18.7 litres (lowest point of the year, in terms of litres bought per week) and 22.9 litres (highest point of the year, in terms of litres bought per week). The overall volume of drinks bought has gone up, as they look for a value offering to take home.This is true across all key segments of the soft drink category.
Claire Woolridge,Category Controller at Suntory Beverage & Food GB&I, says: “The pandemic saw many different purchasing habits creeping into everyday lives as routines changed. People have now settled into different routines, and with them different purchasing habits and patterns. These are impacting retail sales in interesting ways.
“Thanks to these changes, the soft drinks category is more valuable than ever before for convenience retailers, more people are buying into the category, and people are physically buying more drinks. Soft drinks have consistently delivered ahead of other categories and remained stable during tough economictimes.
“There are clear things that, if they’re not already doing them, retailers should ensure they focus on to tap into these embedded behavioural changes in store. Health has been a growing factor and the pandemic accelerated this – so ensure you have a strong range of branded low- and no-sugar soft drinks in your range. Large-format and multipack drinks to take-home have seen sales increases, so they are essential to focus on.”
What the past means for the future
These findings have helped inform SBF GB&I’s renewed and reformulated category vision. There is a real opportunity to unlock an extra £1.2bn in soft drink sales if retailers can take advantage of the above knowledge and tap into the emerging and growing trends.
SBF GB&I’s category vision is underpinned by five key areas of opportunity – the five key drivers – that show the sub-categories and brands retailers should look at to unlock that £1.2BN opportunity over the next five years.
Choose wellness: A £289m opportunity that can be unlocked by ensuring the 7/10 consumers who say they are interested in purchasing functional drinks can find what they need, at a price they can afford; and the 54 per cent of the population who say they are focusing on their mental health can find drinks that positively impact their mood and emotions.
Recharge the moment: This driver can deliver up to£238m, if the 75 per cent of society who say they are concerned about tiredness buy into buying drinks that energise and refuel them.
Elevate the experience: This £186m opportunity can be unlocked by getting the 30 per cent of people who claim to be teetotal to buy into soft drinks for special moments and occasions.
Enjoy hydration: A £203m opportunity for retailers if they can encourage more shoppers to buy into tastier hydration options than water, get shoppers to understand the functionality of sports drinks such as Lucozade Sport, and by growing sales of categories like this to cater for the 66 per cent of adults who identify themselves as physically active.
Enhance food moments: While 25 per cent of soft drink occasions are with food, for 20 per cent of these, tap water is chosen. To open up £263m over the next five years, retailers need to make soft drinks easier to buy into for the 9 per cent of people who buy into the category with their evening meal.
Claire Woolridge concludes: “Soft drink sales have delivered great value in recent years, and we know from our research that by focusing on five key simple areas of opportunity, we can unlock even more value across the category.
“By tackling these five growth drivers head on, there is a tremendous opportunity for retailers to delight customers, bring more shoppers through their doors, and deliver soft drink ranges that are truly fit for the future”.
Seabrook Crisps has unveiled a new price marked pack for the popular Fire Eaters.
Part of Seabrook’s Loaded sharing range, Fire Eaters Smokehouse Cayenne and Trinidad Scorpion Chilli flavours are now available in a 65g bag with a price mark of £1.25.
“Shoppers rely on Seabrook to deliver flavour and great value by the bagful and our retailers look to us to drive snack sales – which is exactly what we have done with our Fire Eater price marked packs,” Claire Hooper, marketing director for Calbee UK, owner of Seabrook, commented.
“Spicy notes are a key trend, especially from brands that consumers know and love, which is why our Smokehouse Cayenne and Trinidad Scorpion Chilli flavours are already a huge hit. Combine the popularity of these flavours with a price mark and we know that taste buds and tills will sing!”
Luxury chocolate brand Cox & Co. is targeting dark chocolate lovers with its brand new Blood Orange Crunch bar, crafted from 60 per cent single-origin Colombian cacao.
With almost two-thirds of chocolate buyers enjoying two or more flavours in a chocolate bar, it’s easy to see why Cox & Co.’s flavour combinations of velvety rich dark chocolate and delicious superfoods are so popular and its latest addition to the range is sure to be no different.
Blood orange is characterised by its deep red flesh and sweet citrusy taste and in its new Blood Orange Crunch Bar, Cox & Co. has paired Blood Orange oil with raw cacao nibs for a zesty flavour, and balanced it with subtle vanilla notes and a moreish crunch.
“We are thrilled to be launching a brand new flavour of our popular 75g dark chocolate bars. Orange-flavoured chocolate is one of the most sought-after amongst chocolate buyers, so we wanted to deliver on this, but with a Cox & Co. twist!” said founder, Gavin Cox. ”The combination of zesty, citrusy flavours with the slightly bitter coffee notes, make the new Blood Orange Crunch bar the perfect treat for dark chocolate fans.”
Blood Orange Crunch is joining Cox & Co.’s range with six other delicious vegan flavours to choose from, including Miso & Caramel, Mint Crunch, Bee Pollen & Honey, Raw Cacao Nibs, 71 per cent Dark Chocolate and Single Origin Pure Cacao (100 per cent).
“Our original range of dark chocolate bars continue to be our best-selling product, with customers continuing to enjoy the unique flavour combinations, blended with our single-origin Colombian cacao. We expect our new Blood Orange Crunch to be very well received and look forward to hearing what customers think,” added Gavin.
Cox & Co.’s cacao is sourced from Colombia’s Luker Chocolate estate as part of "The Chocolate Dream" initiative, which invests in farmers, communities and sustainable farming methods to produce chocolate that’s as ethical as possible.
Cox & Co.’s NEW Blood Orange Crunch Bar is available to retailers nationwide (priced from £13.50, 3 x 70g bars).
Tapping into “new-stalgia” (an anticipated hot food trend in 2025), Gnaw has been working tirelessly to rethink Great British puddings by creating a number of “Hug in a Mug” classics (Crème Brulée, Bakewell Tart, Sticky Toffee Pud) in conjunction with an impressive “pudfolio” of dessert-flavoured bars: New York Cheesecake, Christmas Pudding, Banoffee Pie and Sticky Toffee Pudding.
Desserts may prove divisive. For many the last course will always be a fitting finale to a great meal spent with friends of family, enticing comfort food that offers a nostalgic peek into happy custard drenched, ice cream topped memories from yesteryear. For others, desserts are an unwitting dalliance with guilt-filled soft sponges, buttery pastry, seductively sweet fillings, crumbly toppings, sticky sauces …
Gnaw’s new-for-Christmas “Hugs in Mugs” hot chocolate and bars represent the perfect halfway house; a fresh twist on timeless classics using hot chocolate and meticulously crafted bars as the perfect portion-controlled mediums for reacquainting our taste buds with sweet-themed flavour marriages from times gone by. After all the very definition of “new-stalgia” is revisiting comforting classics in a cooler, more modern way.
“In today’s fast-paced world, we’ve drawn upon our deep love of quality chocolate and indulgent sweet treats to create our range of gooey-centred choc spoons,” said Gnaw Head of Brand, Muhammad Karim. “Perfect for savouring during precious ‘me-time’ moments Or sharing with someone you love, they’re designed to bring a little dash of luxury to your day.”
120g Gooey Pudding Hot Chocolate Spoons PLUS marshmallows (x3) £11.95
80g Pud bars (Banoffee, New York Cheesecake, Christmas Pud) RSP £3.50
Fresh on the heels of joining The Scottish Bee Company under a Natural Larder umbrella, adult soft drinks evangelist Nuisance Drinks is putting the final touches to a New Year launch of Damson & Dandelion tonic, which will become the latest addition to an exquisitely branded range of low-calorie botanical brews that include: Bramble & Rosemary, Nettle & Elderflower, Pink Grapefruit & Basil, Rhubarb & Ginger and Mint, Chilli and Cucumber.
Born at the height of the Pandemic back in 2020, Nuisance Drinks is an ambitious adult soft drinks business, initially born from the foraging exploits of entrepreneur Hugo Morrisey, who first set out to re-create his mother’s celebrated nettle cordial.
The instant popularity of his quirky brew within the UK’s forward-thinking farmer’s markets convinced Morrisey that there was real potential for a far-reaching range of ambitious flavour marriage soft drinks that paired familiar, everyday flavours with more historically forgotten, left-field ingredients.
Morrisey could see the scope to champion a range of beautifully balanced nostalgic flavours that harked back to simpler times.
“I knew from the outset that I wanted to create a range of clean-deck, low-calorie (less than 50 calories) adult soft drinks with clear sustainable convictions that could be drunk either straight from the can or as the perfect mixer with vodka or gin. In each instance the vision was to blend deliciously distinct everyday flavours with some of the British countryside’s unceremoniously shunned shrubbery,” Morrisey said.
Damson & Dandelion Tonic pairs the light, bitter twang with a hint of sweetness associated with dandelions with the sharp, astringent taste of damsons, tapping into the hot trend of ‘new-stalgia,’ which revisits comforting classics in a cooler, more modern way.
Leading sausage roll brand Wall’s has introduced a brand-new format to the hot pie fixture with the launch of its Deep Dish Pizza Pies, as it aims to add variety and attract younger consumers and families to the chilled savoury pastry category.
The new range is a unique hybrid of a pie and a deep-dish pizza, available in two classic recipes: Three Cheese and Pepperoni (both 150g, RRP £2). Both are now available across the convenience channel, along with Asda.
The launch follows incredible growth for Wall’s, which has doubled in size over the past two and a half years to become a £59 million brand, driven by a series of NPD aimed at attracting younger consumers and tapping into new meal occasions. Its latest fusion has been designed to offer younger shoppers and families new ways to enjoy hot pies in a category traditionally dominated by classic ingredients like steak and chicken, which is typically bought into by older consumers.
The Deep Dish Pizza Pies are filled with popular pizza topping combinations. The Three Cheese recipe features a blend of extra mature cheddar, mozzarella and Red Leicester cheeses, while the Pepperoni version is packed with tomato, extra mature cheddar and pepperoni. Available as an individual serving, the pies offer a convenient hot meal solution that can be oven baked or air fried.
“The typical chilled savoury pastry shopper is older, so the category must become more relevant for younger consumers if it’s going to continue to grow,” Jason Manley, brand director at The Compleat Food Group, home of Wall’s, said.
“Wall’s is uniquely positioned to meet this challenge as a leading brand in chilled savoury pastry, with a strong brand presence and resonance amongst younger shoppers. That’s why we’re innovating within the more traditional categories such as hot pies and introducing greater variety with our Deep Dish Pizza Pies.
“The Wall’s Deep Dish Pizza Pie is ideal for satisfying hungry kids after school, as well as working well as an after-work snack or part of a larger dinner. Launching with two popular pizza toppings, we are confident they will be a hit, and we look forward to introducing more recipes in the new year.”