Over a third of UK of vapers will defy any new flavour restrictions brought in under the Tobacco and Vapes Bill, a poll by campaign group We Vape has found.
Commissioned after the bill's first reading in parliament, the poll showed 35 per cent of a 601-strong sample group of vapers across the UK would continue to buy flavoured vapes online, abroad or elsewhere if flavours were limited to only "tobacco", "menthol", and "fruit'.
With 5.6million vapers in the UK, that equates to nearly two million of them (1.96million) buying unregulated products if flavours are restricted.
Research has shown flavours are a significant draw for smokers looking to switch to vaping, an accepted safer way to use nicotine.
And while moves to ban flavour names specifically aimed at children – like candy floss and bubble gum – are widely welcomed, campaigners warned excessive restrictions would drive people back to cigarettes.
"Our polling shows millions of vapers are just going to ignore any measures that prevent them from accessing the flavours that help them quit smoking," said We Vape founder Mark Oates.
"If a certain vape flavour stops a person lighting up, it should be protected. Naming products in a way that clearly appeals to children, like bubblegum, must of course be banned, but there are many flavours that attract smokers looking to make the switch away from the tastes and smells associated with smoking.
"Appealing flavours must be protected to ensure we don't see a mass migration from vaping back to combustible tobacco, which is a death sentence for most users."
The poll, carried out by researchers from Britain in Focus, also showed a quarter of UK vapers would be much less likely to vote Labour if the Government restricts vape flavours.
It means 1.4million of the 5.6million vapers in the country will be lost potential voters for the party, already embattled over a tax-ramping budget and declining voter support.
Results showed that 23.3 per cent would be "much less likely" to vote Labour, while 4.5 per cent said they would be "somewhat less likely" if done as part of the new Tobacco and Vapes Bill.
Mr Oates said: "The vape vote is becoming increasingly important due to the sheer numbers of smokers who have switched to this effective harm reduction tool.
"Keir Starmer is garnering a reputation for not listening to the public. If this continues with vaping the stats are clear – it will cost him at the polls."
Worryingly, poll results also showed one fifth (20 per cent) of vapers will likely go back to smoking after any flavours ban – slightly lower than the government's own impact report.
Asked how likely they would be to return to cigarettes in the next 12 months if the Government were to restrict vape flavours, 11.5 per cent said they would be “highly likely” to go back to smoking while a further 10 per cent said they would be “quite likely”.
This could mean around 1.1 million vapers returning to cigarettes.
Of further concern, 4.8 per cent of vapers – which would equate to around 270,000 people – even stated they would make their own to circumvent any restrictions and save money after the e-liquid tax hike of £2.20 per 10ml of e-liquid.
Mr Oates said: "This government must understand smoking is most prevalent in low income households and communities.
"Keir Starmer has already announced the vape liquid tax will be increased, almost quadrupling its price, which lessens the appeal of making the switch from smoking.
"Our research now shows some people feel so strongly about further restrictions they would consider making their own vapes.
“Removing a product does not remove its demand and with so many people prepared to use illicit products, the government must protect crucial flavours or face the uphill struggle of trying to uphold laws that are impossible to enforce.”
The We Vape poll results should also worry Trading Standards, who will be tasked with enforcing the disposable vapes ban from June next year and tackling a street black market predicted to skyrocket when the new laws are introduced.
The government's disposables ban has been at the centre of some controversy, with its own impact assessment concluding it would likely lead to “health disbenefits.” It stated “29 per cent of current [vapers] will either revert/re-lapse to smoking tobacco” leading to a rise in “the sale of tobacco goods”.
In some good news for the Government however, the We Vape poll showed an overwhelming majority of the country backed a retail vaping licence – with 80 per cent supporting the move that is intended to help crack down on vapes being sold to children.
In a sample of 2400 people across the UK, 85 per cent also supported the introduction of premarket testing, to help keep illicit products off the shelves.
