Prices of everyday basics like Bounty paper towels and Cadbury chocolate may rise again this year while those of others like Clorox Co wipes and Diet Pepsi are likely to stay steady, as manufacturers make differing bets on the strength of the consumer and their brands.
Consumer goods makers' strategies on further price hikes depends on their leverage with retailers such as Walmart and Tesco, who are pushing back against more increases, how much consumers need and want the items and their arrangements for buying volatile commodities, some of which are falling in price.
Once-in-a-generation levels of inflation, stemming from pandemic supply chain snarls, government stimulus and the Ukraine war, have pinched shoppers' pocketbooks globally.
In Britain, consumers paid 16.7 per cent more for food in the month to Jan. 22 compared to the same period last year, while US prices for food eaten at and away from home rose 10.1 per cent in the 12 months ended in January.
But, there are small signs the pressure is easing, with US consumer prices a month earlier declining for the first time in two-and-a-half years, due in part to gas prices.
As the "tide is turning a little bit," some retailers are also now asking suppliers for "rollbacks" as the cost of fuel, for example, falls, another factor driving companies' decisions, said KPMG consultant Sunder Ramakrishnan.
"The retailer would drop the shelf price, because manufacturers agree to sell it for less to the retailer," Ramakrishnan said. "It's been a fairly recent phenomenon. Not a lot of manufacturers are willing to volunteer to cut price."
The cost of cardboard cases has decreased by as much as 50 per cent, and transportation costs have plummeted as well, by 25-30 per cent, Reuters reported last week. Some plastics and chemicals used in household goods have risen, executives have said, and labour remains costly.
Price hikes - or halts - are set to take center stage at the Consumer Analyst Group of New York annual conference on Feb. 20 in Boca Raton, Florida.
Different Predictions
After more than a year of consistent price hikes, some consumer goods makers such as Kraft Mac & Cheese manufacturer Kraft Heinz Co are pressing pause as they weigh consumer demand for their items.
Kraft's prices went up 13.2 percentage points in 2022 over the prior year, according to financial disclosures. US supermarket chain Kroger is promoting a 20-ounce bottle of Heinz ketchup for $2.49 - below the $3.18 average price per unit of the condiment according to IRI, a Chicago-based market research firm.
Kraft-Heinz chief execuitve Miguel Patricio said last week that private label, or store brands, are gaining market share, mainly from the company's competitors.
It's riskier for national brands to hike prices on products where consumers are increasingly buying store brand items, such as grocery and baby products, according to data from market research firm Numerator.
But other companies like Nestle, the world's biggest food company, continue to plan price hikes in the future to recoup margins squeezed by high labour and fuel costs, a whiplash for consumers aiming to make sense of their household expenses.
Prices on Nestle's products already rose 8.2 per cent last year, with an 11.75 ounce package of its Stouffer's French bread pizza selling for $3.48 at Walmart. Frozen pizza prices have risen about 14 per cent in the last year, according to IRI data.
(Credit: Reuters)
Price, always a major factor for consumers along with quality, is now becoming even more important, said Mark Hosbein, an executive at consulting firm Magid. Magid's data from surveys shows that consumers are spending dramatically more on groceries, rent and gas, forcing them to cut back on savings and eat out less.
"Consumer sensitivity to prices is going up, even in the last couple months," Hosbein said, adding that data tracked by his firm shows shoppers are becoming less discriminating in what they buy and opting for whatever is cheaper.
For example, a shopper who wants blue, 100-thread count sheets but sees cheaper, lower-quality beige ones is now more likely to purchase those, Hosbein said.
Big Brands Differ
Brands that retailers and consumers see "core" or "very strong" in their segment also have more pricing power, Ramakrishnan said, because they help build sales for chains.
Coca-Cola Co's chief executive James Quincey, for example, said on Tuesday the company had "earned the right" to push prices on to consumers because its classic Coke and Fanta sodas lead the beverage category.
Executives at Bounty maker Procter & Gamble said the company was confident the US "consumer is going to hold up well" over the next few quarters, and planning more increases. A 16-ounce bottle of P&G's Dawn Powerwash dish soap costs $5.99 on Target.com, after debuting at $4.99 about three years ago according to media reports.
"Retailers cannot truly push back on prices … if the company has an important brand," Bernstein analyst Bruno Monteyne said.
The average prices consumers are paying for Kraft-Heinz and PepsiCo products have risen faster than Nestle's, another reason why both Kraft-Heinz and PepsiCo may be holding off on hikes for now.
PepsiCo chief executive Ramon Laguarta has said he expects shoppers to become more price-sensitive later in the year due to fears of a recession in the US, its major market.
Local shops will face significant new pressures as a result of today’s Budget, the Association of Convenience Stores (ACS) has warned.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves' budget's impact will be felt unevenly across the UK’s 50,000 convenience stores, with some measures such as business rate relief and the increased employment allowance mitigating costs for smaller independent stores, while providing no help for chains and larger independent businesses.
The key measures for local shops announced by the Chancellor, and the costs for local shops associated with them, are:
National Living Wage to increase to £12.21 per hour
National Minimum Wage (18-20 rate) to increase to £10 per hour
Cost to the convenience sector next year: £7.739bn (increase of £513m)
Employers’ National Insurance Contributions to rise to 15 per cent
Threshold for Employers’ National Insurance contributions to fall to £5,000 per year
Employment Allowance to rise to £10,500 a year
Cost to the convenience sector next year: £397m (increase of £85m)
Retail and hospitality rate relief reduced from 75 per cent to 40 per cent
Small business multiplier frozen for 2025/26
Cost to the convenience sector: £267m (increase of £68m)
Total cost of main announcements (year-on-year difference): £666m
ACS Chief Executive James Lowman said: “The cold hard facts are that the measures announced in the past 24 hours have added two-thirds of a billion pounds to the direct cost base of the UK’s local shops. At a time when trade is tough and operating costs are stubbornly high, this will be challenging for our members to absorb and there will be some casualties on high streets and in villages and estates across the country.
“Not all shops will be impacted the same. The smallest retailers, with low NICs bills and lower rateable values for their shops, will benefit from the welcome increase in the employment allowance and the retention of 40% of the retail, hospitality and leisure business rates relief. Retailers with a larger store, a number of sites or those operating a chain will receive limited benefit from these mitigations, and this will impact their ability to invest and to continue to offer services in the communities they serve.
The following additional measures were announced by the Chancellor in the Budget speech today:
Flat rate levy on vaping liquids from October 2026 of £2.20 per 10ml
Fuel duty frozen and the 5p cut extended for another year
A new commitment to tackling shop theft and funding directed to tackling organised gangs
Lowman continued: “The Chancellor’s commitment to tackling shop theft will be warmly welcomed by our members, but they are interested only in action and in crime against their stores and their colleagues being tackled effectively. We stand ready to help implement a new, and better-funded strategy to stop shop theft, abuse and violence against our members.”
Parliament is to launch an inquiry into delays in compensation settlements for sub postmasters affected by the Horizon scandal.
The newly-formed Business and Trade Select Committee will call ministers, subpostmasters and their lawyers to give evidence next week with a second session to follow in mid-November. The Committee’s chair, Liam Byrne MP told ITV News that there was “definitely a delay” in people coming forward for payment.
“What we’re hearing from subpostmasters is that if there is an argument about how much should be paid out, the first offer is made quite quickly but if there’s a negotiation, that negotiation is dragging.
“We on the committee are going to batter away at this, week in, week out, until it is job done. All of us on our committee are frankly horrified and outraged by how long this has taken and we’re just not going to give up, ” he said.
Sir Alan Bates, the Post Office campaigner and chair of the Justice for Subpostmasters Alliance, is expected to be invited to give evidence. Earlier this month, Sir Alan states that his own claim had not been addressed and that he had written to prime minister Sir Keir Starmer asking for his intervention.
“Like many of the groups, my claim has not been completed. It’s ridiculous. I am one of just many in this position. This is why I wrote to the Prime Minister at the start of October, asking that he instruct the department to ensure that all claims – and I’m talking about in the GLO group, the original 555 – have been completed by March next year," he said.
This comes weeks after the Post Office's outgoing CEO agreed the government is using the company as a "shield" over compensation schemes. Nick Read, who resigned last month, was giving evidence at the Post Office Horizon IT Inquiry for the second day, with a focus on delays to victims' financial redress.
He also admitted that the compensation process has been "overly bureaucratic" and expressed "deep regret" that the Post Office had not lived up to delivering "speedy and fair redress".
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Bacup Wine and Convenience shop, 34 Burnley Road, Bacup.
A Rossendale shop has had a licence bid rejected after repeatedly selling vapes to children and having illegal products on its premises.
Management at the Ibra Superstore at 34 Burnley Road, Bacup, have shown ‘no regard’ for children’s protection and safety, and have insufficient controls for licensing, Rossendale councillors have ruled.
Ibrahim Mohammad, director of the Ibra Superstore, had recently applied to Rossendale Council for a new premises licence. But the borough’s licensing sub-committee rejected his bid after a meeting which heard allegations from the police and trading standards officers.
The Burnley Road shop has been subject to various licensing changes and concerns in recent years. In the past, it was called Bacup Wines.
Ibrahim Mohammad, the applicant, attended the Rossendale licensing sub-committe meeting with his father,Amin Mohammad. Also there was PC Mick Jones, of Lancashire Constabulary, and Jason Middleton of Lancashire Trading Standards. Councillor Bob Bauld attended as an observer.
Mr Mohammad wanted a premises license for alcohol sales and opening hours from 8am to 11pm, seven days a week. He already had a personal licence. He said the Bacup shop would install a CCTV system, keep an incident log and a refusals record, check customers’ ages, display information about staff and give them regular training.
Trading standards officer Jason Middleton said Ibra Superstore Ltd was incorporated as a company in April 2023. Since then, trading standards had received 11 complaints about under-age sales and carried out visits.
Breaches included non-compliant vapes being found which broke a 2ml limit on the quantity of nicotine-containing liquid, no age checks and no information on display.
During one visit, Amin Mohammad tried to leave with a bag containing 10 illegal vapes. In test purchases by trading standards, an ‘Elf Bar’ vape was sold to a 14-year-old by Amin Mohammad and an illegal Hayati Pro Max vape to a 13-year-old by Ibrahim Mohammad. The shop claimed a phone call distracted staff during the 13-year-old’s purchase and illegal vapes came from ‘a man in car’.
Councillors heard different speakers, looked at written reports and also some video footage from the applicant. But they rejected the premises licence bid.
Giving their reasons, they stated: “There was a repeated history and pattern of behaviour regarding under-age sales of age-restricted items, such as tobacco products and vapes to children. You must not sell vapes to anyone under the age of 18. This is a criminal offence which the council takes very seriously.
“It is clear you breached the law by failing a test purchase operation in which you sold an illegal vape to an under-age child. The sub-committee feels that you have no regard to the protection and safety of children.
“The sub-committee feels that there is insufficient management control at the premises. There is no credible system to prevent under-age sales of age-restricted products and no measures in place to avoid harm to children and to prevent crime and disorder
“Therefore, given the number of incidents, the circumstances surrounding the incidents and the fact that the matter involves safeguarding issues relating to young, vulnerable minors, we consider that the seriousness of the incidents and the crimes committed against young children undermines the licensing objectives to prevent crime and disorder, and protect children from harm.”
The shop has the right of appeal to a magistrates court within 21 days of the date of the notice.
SPAR North of England retailer Dara Singh Randhawa’s family store has been awarded £100,000 of free stock after hitting all his targets since moving to the symbol.
Dara and his family, who have their SPAR store in Patrington in the East Riding of Yorkshire, joined SPAR through its association with James Hall & Co. Ltd in August 2023 having taken the decision to maximise the store’s potential.
It is a decision they have not looked back on, with sales increasing by up to 25% and margins also showing significant uplift in the last 12 months.
Key to the store’s improved performance is the complete overhaul of products available in-store, particularly the fresh food range, to better support people who live in Patrington and the surrounding area.
A new store layout and refrigeration, better Food To Go and meal deal options, a coffee machine, and a Calippo slush machine were also installed during a major refurbishment prior to launch.
Dara said: “Our move to SPAR has been excellent. We have seen fantastic sales uplift and the support from the team at James Hall & Co. Ltd has been brilliant. The £100,000 of free stock is the cherry on the cake.
“We have been very impressed with the Price Locked promotions, in particular. These give customers confidence to do bigger shops with us as they see value on our shelves and the products at the same prices for longer.
“At times over the summer when tourists and visitors to the area add trade, we have seen sales £6,000 a week higher than our average. This is against a backdrop of the popular caravan park in the village being closed almost all year.
“We are really pleased with the position we are in, and we will be looking to achieve more in 2025.”
Peter Dodding, Sales Director at James Hall & Co. Ltd and Chairman of the SPAR Northern Guild, said: “Congratulations to Dara and the Randhawa family on hitting their targets and earning £100,000 of free stock.
“We recognise switching brand is a big decision for a retailer which is why this isn’t a gimmick, and we offer this to all retailers who join the SPAR family with James Hall & Co. Ltd.
“As well as our £100,000 incentive, we also offer retailers the chance to achieve up to an additional £5,000 of free stock if they successfully refer a friend.
“These opportunities provide additional motivation to retailers alongside the comprehensive benefits that joining the SPAR brand brings with it.”
James Hall & Co. Ltd is a fifth-generation family business which serves a network of independent SPAR retailers and company-owned SPAR stores across Northern England six days a week from its base at Bowland View in Preston.
The government has on Wednesday announced its acceptance of the Low Pay Commission’s (LPC) recommendations on the rates of the National Minimum Wage (NMW), including the National Living Wage (NLW).
The rates which will apply from 1 April 2025 are as follows:
NMW Rate
Increase (£)
Percentage increase
National Living Wage (21 and over)
£12.21
£0.77
6.7
18-20 Year Old Rate
£10.00
£1.40
16.3
16-17 Year Old Rate
£7.55
£1.15
18.0
Apprentice Rate
£7.55
£1.15
18.0
Accommodation Offset
£10.66
£0.67
6.7
The recommended NLW rate is expected to equal two-thirds of median earnings and to have the highest real value in the history of the UK’s minimum wage. The increase in the 18-20 Year Old Rate narrows the gap between that and the NLW, in anticipation of the adult rate being extended to 18 year olds in future years.
“The government have been clear about their ambitions for the National Minimum Wage and its importance in supporting workers’ living standards. At the same time, employers have had to deal with the adult rate rising over 20 per cent in two years, and the challenges that has created alongside other pressures to their cost base,” Baroness Philippa Stroud, chair of the LPC, said.
“It is our job to balance these considerations, ensuring the NLW provides a fair wage for the lowest-paid workers while taking account of economic factors. These rates secure a real-terms pay increase for the lowest-paid workers. Young workers will see substantial increases in their pay floor, making up some of the ground lost against the adult rate over time.”
Stroud admitted that the data show some signs of employers finding it harder to adapt to minimum wage increases.
“The tightening of the labour market since the pandemic has unwound, but the overall picture is similar to 2019. The economy is expected to grow over the next year, although productivity growth remains subdued,” she noted.
Business secretary Jonathan Reynolds said:
Good work and fair wages are in the interest of British business as much as British workers. This government is changing people’s lives for the better because we know that investing in the workforce leads to better productivity, better resilience and ultimately a stronger economy primed for growth.
The recommended increase in the 16-17 Year Old Rate restores that rate to its original value relative to the adult minimum wage. In line with previous recommendations, the Apprentice Rate will remain equal to the 16-17 Year Old Rate.