UK economy ekes out growth in first quarter but March drop underscores fragility
A pedestrian wheels a shopper past a shop advertising a closing-down sale in Bolton, north west England on January 20, 2023. (Photo by Oli SCARFF / AFP) (Photo by OLI SCARFF/AFP via Getty Images)
Britain's economy grew 0.1 percent in the first quarter after narrowly avoiding recession last year, official data revealed Friday, as output continues to be hit by high inflation and strikes.
After gross domestic product advanced 0.5 percent in January, output flattened in February and slid 0.3 percent in March, the Office for National Statistics said in a statement.
"The fall in March was driven by widespread decreases across the services sector," noted ONS director of economic statistics, Darren Morgan.
"Despite the launch of new number plates, cars sales were low by historic standards - continuing the trend seen since the start of the pandemic - with warehousing, distribution and retail also having a poor month," he added.
The data comes one day after the Bank of England forecast that the UK economy would avoid recession this year despite the country's annual inflation stuck above 10 percent.
With consumer prices continuing to rise at a fast pace, the BoE on Thursday hiked its key interest rate by a further quarter-point to 4.5 per cent.
It was the central bank's 12th increase in a row, putting the rate at the highest level since the global financial crisis in 2008.
Elevated inflation is eroding the value of workers' wages, causing mass strikes across Britain, the latest being stoppages on the railway network Friday.
"The UK appears to be stuck in limbo. This is the third broadly flat quarter for GDP in a row. Whilst the data suggests the UK is performing far better than most expected last year, it remains a challenge to reconcile how the UK economy can escape a recession after such a steep rise in interest rates," Jonathan Moyes, head of investment research at Wealth Club, commented.
"Nonetheless, whilst strike action continued to affected the data, particularly for services, manufacturing and construction are clearly pockets of strength. If confidence surveys are to be believed, there has been a notable uptick in services in April, which may give a boost Q2 numbers."
Britain's economy remained 0.5 per cent smaller than in the fourth quarter of 2019, shortly before the coronavirus pandemic -a weaker rebound than any other major advanced economy.
"With the key services side of the economy continuing to slow in the face of higher borrowing costs and rising prices, it still feels like we’re walking through treacle," said Tom Stevenson, personal investing director at Fidelity International.
"With inflation still in double digits, it feels depressingly like a re-run of 1970s stagflation."
Output in March was only 0.1 per cent higher than in February 2020, the last full pre-pandemic month.
"A weaker economy in March underscores its fragility despite a fall in wholesale energy prices, improving supply chain conditions, and consumer confidence that has also recovered from multi-year lows," KPMG economist Yael Selfin said.
"While recession is probably no longer on the cards, vulnerabilities resulting from higher borrowing costs and tighter credit are likely to dampen business and household activity this year."
Vimto owner Nichols plc is eyeing more international growth after enjoying a “strong” year as the cost of living crisis eased.
In a brief trading update, the soft drinks supplier noted that trading in the second half of last year had continued the positive momentum from the first and was in line with its growth strategy and medium-term financial ambitions.
Group revenue rose by 0.8 per cent to £172.1m as Nichols continued to perform well within its packaged business, which saw sales grow by 3.8 per cent. This was driven by particularly solid trading in the UK, where sales rose by 5.4 per cent, largely due to innovation and distribution gains.
However, in line with the company’s expectations, Out of Home (OoH) revenue fell by 8.2 per cent following exits from unprofitable accounts as part of plans outlined in its 2022 strategic review.
Meanwhile, gross margins continued to improve as inflationary pressures eased during the year and as its overall product mix improved. Nichols noted that this stability has enabled increased investment in the long-term strategic development of the business.
Whilst inflationary pressures now appear to be moderating in the UK, Nichols stated that it “remains mindful” of continued uncertainty affecting some of its markets and necessary mitigating actions are in place.
Vimto has a huge international reach and is particularly popular in cordial form in the Middle East during Ramadan. Nichols said full year revenues were in line with 2023 “despite the shift to a lower revenue but margin enhancing concentrate model across several African markets”.
“The group continues to derive considerable benefit from its diversified business model, with an established UK position complemented by the significant growth opportunities within the International business.
"Within the Packaged business, the Group continues its strategy of investing in extending the product range and in the development of its international markets, both of which are expected to continue to provide growth over the medium-term."
Chief Executive Andrew Milne commented, “I’m pleased to report Nichols delivered a strong performance in FY24, with good progress made against our strategic plan and towards our medium-term financial ambitions.
“Our strategy will drive a high-margin, highly cash-generative, diversified business, built on the unique strength of the Vimto brand. Looking ahead, we remain focused on continuing to execute our strategic plans and driving further progress against our medium-term ambitions.”
John Noel Nichols invented Vimto in Manchester in 1908. His grandson John Nichols is still on Nichols plc's board of directors. Last year his son Matthew Nichols, already Commercial Director – International in the group’s packaged drinks business, joined him on the board.
Carlsberg's £3.3 billion deal to buy J2O maker Britvic has been approved by a High Court judge, paving the way for Carlsberg UK Holdings Limited to acquire the company.
According to recent reports, the court sanctioned the takeover at a short hearing on Wednesday (15), stating the scheme "could be and should be approved", BBC reported.
The approval by the court is the final step in a process that began with an agreement between Britvic and Carlsberg on July 8, 2024.
The Danish brewery, which also owns brands including 1664 and Brooklyn, said it planned to create a single integrated drinks business called Carlsberg Britvic following the takeover.
The company said it will create an "enlarged international group" that could expand into "multiple drinks sectors".
Britvic holds an exclusive licence with US partner PepsiCo to make and sell brands such as Pepsi, 7up and Lipton Ice Tea in the UK.
Andrew Thornton KC, for Britvic, said in written submissions that the company was "the largest supplier of branded still soft drinks and the number two supplier of carbonated soft drinks in Great Britain".
The hearing in London was told that the deal will see Britvic taken over by Carlsberg UK Holdings Limited, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Carlsberg A/S, which Thornton described as "one of the world's largest international brewing groups" with a market capitalisation of £13bn.
The acquisition was approved by Britvic's shareholders last August, with the Competition and Markets Authority giving its approval in December.
The companies said they have also received the clearance from the European Commission to proceed with the acquisition, satisfying all regulatory conditions.
Discount chain Poundland has announced a new initiative to tackle theft from their stores and protect their staff.
The ‘Against Retail Crime’ initiative, launched across its 800 UK stores, is part of the retailer’s ongoing efforts to address increasing shop theft, along with abuse and harassment of staff.
Store staff will soon wear communication headsets to communicate quickly when incidents occur. Following a successful trial across its estate, Poundland is also now rolling out body cameras to the stores with the most significant crime issues, providing a visual deterrent for offenders and record of incidents.
Preliminary results from the trials are promising, with the retailer reporting an 11 per cent decrease in violence against staff and a noticeable reduction in theft.
Poundland, which revealed that it lost more than £40 million worth of stock last year due to crime, added that it is working closely with local enforcement agencies and police forces to aid prosecution.
“The rate of store theft and colleague abuse has accelerated significantly across our stores in the last 18 months, and this has been very challenging for our people,” Christina Jesty, Head of Loss Prevention at Poundland, said.
“Whether it’s store theft undermining all our colleagues’ hard work, or incidents of violence and abuse making our colleagues feel unsafe at work, something must change.”
According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), police in England and Wales recorded 443,995 shoplifting offences in the 12 months leading up to March 2024, marking a 30 per cent increase from the previous year's 342,428 incidents. This figure represents the highest level of shoplifting offences since records began in 2003.
Retailers have expressed concerns that many incidents go unreported, suggesting the actual number of offences may be higher.
Retail trade union Usdaw has welcomed the new investment by Poundland.
“It is shocking that over two-thirds of our members working in retail are suffering abuse from customers, with far too many subjected to threats and violence. Seven in ten of these incidents were triggered by theft from shops and it has become increasingly common for retail stores to be targeted by organised crime gangs stealing to order amid a retail crime epidemic. So, we welcome initiatives taken by employers like Poundland in tackling retail crime and helping to protect staff and we share their view that ‘enough is enough’,” Bally Auluk, Usdaw national officer, said.
The recently announced new buying group The Wholesale Group has begun the new year with the addition of six brand-new members
The buying group, which was announced at the end of last year and came into effect on Jan 1 2025, brings together the wholesale members of Confex and Fairway Foodservice to create "the home for independent wholesalers".
With 255 members, The Wholesale Group is now the UK’s largest foodservice buying group and the second largest retail buying group. The group has seen interest from unaffiliated wholesalers as well as members of other buying groups.
The new members to join the group are HRH International, Lancashire; Clegg’s Chilled Foodservice Ltd, Preston; Warley Stores Ltd, West Midlands; Eagle Foods Ltd, Peterborough; Café Deli Wholesale Ltd, Surrey and Tinsdale Distribuciones, based in Alicante, Spain.
“We are delighted to welcome so many new members to the group so soon into the new year,” said Jess Douglas, joint managing director.
“As a group, we provide a strong, supportive, collaborative platform for growth which secures our members’ future. Our offer is tailored to meet the needs of family businesses and we provide the best of both retail and foodservice expertise and efficiency.
"And, at a time when every business is faced with rising costs, our members pay no membership fees and all members receive a share of the profits – it’s an incredibly compelling offer.”
With £4.47bn buying power, the group is claiming to revolutionise UK independent wholesale sector.
As reported earlier, The Wholesale Group MD Tom Gittins is confident that the group will reach the £5bn mark “pretty quickly”, and has a chance “in five years’ time to be the biggest group”, amidst further consolidation in the industry.
On Tuesday (14), The Wholesale Group held a senior supplier briefing session ahead of its first trade show in March at Cheltenham Racecourse.
A survey from Too Good To Go has revealed that despite 60.4 per cent of adults claiming to be aware of the financial impact of food waste on their budgets, many underestimate the true cost.
The research uncovers a startling misconception among Brits, with 41.8 per cent believing they only waste £100-£200 worth of food annually. The reality is very different and in fact ten times higher, with UK households wasting on average, £1,000 every single year [WRAP, 2023].
With a long January ahead and Britons starting to think about the rest of the year, the surplus food marketplace noted that an additional £1,000 could provide some much-needed relief for the household budgets.
The main food items falling victim to waste are fresh produce (30.1 per cent), bread and bakery items (27.8 per cent) and leftovers (27.4 per cent). In fact, the equivalent of 1.3 million loaves of bread are thrown away every day in the UK, often due to incorrect storage.
Reducing food waste is not just a smart financial move; it’s an opportunity to be more sustainable. Food waste plays a huge part in the climate crisis – responsible for a massive 10 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions globally. By reducing food waste, households can also significantly cut their carbon footprint and contribute to a healthier planet.
When asked if willing to alter shopping and cooking habits on realising they were wasting such significant amounts, a staggering 87.6 per cent confirmed they would. This willingness is driven primarily by a desire to save money (67.4 per cent), followed by a want to be more sustainable (33.1 per cent) and contributing to broader food waste reduction efforts (31.6 per cent).
Findings show that nearly half of respondents (45.8 per cent) already seek discounts as a cost-cutting measure.
Too Good To Go said its app provides the perfect opportunity for those looking to purchase food at a reduced cost. Users can purchase and pick up Surprise Bags of quality food from their favourite local spots that would otherwise have gone to waste, at a discounted price.
Too Good To Go shares some tips and tricks to help reduce household waste:
When in doubt, freeze those leftovers. Virtually anything can be frozen if you don’t think you’re going to be able to eat it in time.
Don’t be afraid to get creative with adapting a simple dish. For example, you can change a classic bolognese sauce into a chilli con carne, meat pie or even a lasagne.
Don’t forget storage. Cloth bags are ideal for storing bread as they help maintain its properties and prevent it from drying out, especially if you add a piece of potato to the bag.
Freshly made bread should not be stored in airtight bags to allow it to breathe and stay as fresh as possible; instead use a bread basket or cloth bag to cool it at room temperature.
For sliced bread, store it in the fridge to extend its shelf life, and always check its condition before eating.