Food sales continued to see an uptick last month against overall dip in sales as shopper confidence rose a little as retailers brace of additional costs and legislative changes in the coming months, shows industry data released today (11).
According to British Retail Consortium (BRC), total retail sales increased by 1.1 per cent year on year in February, against a growth of 1.1 per cent in February 2024. This was below the 3-month average growth of 2.4 per cent and above the 12-month average growth of 0.8 per cent.
Food sales increased by 2.3 per cent year on year in February, against a growth of 5.6 per cent in February 2024. This was level with the 3-month average growth of 2.3 per cent and below the 12-month average growth of 2.8 per cent.
Non-Food sales were flat year on year in February, against a decline of 2.7 per cent in February 2024
Commenting on the figures, Helen Dickinson OBE, Chief Executive of the British Retail Consortium, said, “Retail sales saw more modest growth in February. While sales growth across non-food categories was generally muted, it was propped up by online purchases, particularly in computing and electronics.
"Jewellery, watches and fragrance sold well thanks to Valentine’s Day, reversing declines seen last year, and furniture also returned to growth. Fashion performed poorly due to the gloomy weather throughout the month, but retailers are hopeful the early March sunshine kickstarts spending on Spring and Summer wardrobes.
“This weak performance makes many retailers uneasy, especially as they brace for £7bn of new costs from the Budget and packaging levy in 2025, as well as the potential impact of the Employment Rights Bill.
"The industry is already doing all it can to absorb existing costs, but they will be left with little choice but to increase prices or reduce investment in jobs and shops, or both.
"The focus of the Employment Rights Bill should be on unscrupulous employers but instead the industry faces ongoing uncertainty and a trajectory that risks punishing responsible businesses who provide valuable employment, particularly at entry level. It is time for government to course correct to ensure investment and growth are not undermined.”
Regarding the performance in food and drink sector, Sarah Bradbury, CEO at IGD, said, "Despite upcoming cost challenges, shopper confidence rose to 2 (from -3 in January) due to wage growth and the impending rise in the National Living Wage.
"Early February saw positive retail value sales, likely from Valentine’s promotions, but overall, February's volume sales dipped. Shopper confidence is expected to remain volatile in response to the external environment."
Retail footfall rebounded last week from the week before in high streets and retail parks whereas shopping centres continued to see a decline, shows the latest figures.
The rise in high street activity is being attributed to warmer weather, and schools reopening following the half term break across the UK which will also signal a return to the office.
According to MRI Software, footfall rose on four out of seven days last week peaking on Sunday and Wednesday in all UK retail destinations, however the drop in activity came on Friday which was far more significant in shopping centres.
High streets benefitted from the warmer weather on Saturday with a rise in footfall recorded however retail parks and shopping centres saw a drop in activity on this day compared to the week before.
All town types seemingly benefited from the milder weather conditions with footfall rising from the week before, especially in coastal towns and Greater London where double digit rises were recorded from the week before.
Market and historic towns also witnessed strong activity, alongside MRI Software’s Central London Back to Office benchmark. Apart from the West Midlands, regional footfall in all UK retail destinations remained strong particularly in the East of England and the South West.
Retail footfall rose by +1.8 per cent overall last week from the week before driven by a +4.2 per cent rebound in high street activity and by +0.1 per cent in retail parks.
Shopping centres, however, saw a -1.6 per cent decline in footfall, reflecting cautious consumer behaviour ahead of Mother’s Day and Easter, which fall two weeks later this year than in 2024. This suggest shoppers may be planning purchases more intentionally.
Week on week, Sunday and Wednesday were the strongest days with footfall in all UK retail destinations but driven predominantly by high streets experiencing strong rises.
This upward trend continued into the weekend with activity rising by +4% on Saturday whereas retail parks and shopping centres saw a much quieter day with footfall declining, a sign of milder weather conditions encouraging people to outdoor retail destinations.
Coastal towns also benefitted from the improved weather conditions as footfall rose by +11 per cent week on week, a double digit trend which was also echoed in Greater London (+10.6 per cent). The return to office was evident in Central London.
Compared to 2024 levels, high street footfall remained flat whereas shopping centres and retail parks saw a footfall decline.
With seasonal shifts in major events that typically drive retail footfall, including Mother’s Day and Easter moving to later in March and into April, these annual fluctuations are expected to level out over time.
Footfall in February remained somewhat stable, notes a recent report, showing a considerable rise observed after the post-Christmas lull with Valentine's Day emerging as the key contributor.
MRI Software’s latest retail footfall data for February revealed a minor dip of -0.3 per cent compared to February 2024 across all UK retail destinations, driven by a -1.5 per cent decline in high street activity.
This annual fall reflects historical trends for February but may have been compounded this year by a particularly severe flu season, ongoing travel disruptions, and the arrival of Storm Herminia; all of which created further obstacles in driving retail and office-based footfall.
Shopping centres and retail parks bucked the trend recording rises of +0.2 per cent and +1.9 per cent, respectively, and continues to reinforce the benefits of enclosed retail destinations.
Despite these challenges, February’s month-on-month footfall provided welcome relief.
Total footfall rose by +7.3 per cent from January as the retail sector moved past the traditional post-Christmas lull.
Key events including the February half-term holiday provided a boost for physical retail destinations, particularly shopping centres and high streets where footfall jumped by +9 per cent and +11.6 per cent, respectively, from the previous week.
Valentine's Day was also another key contributor as footfall rose by +22.3 per cent in all UK retail destinations on this day alone compared to the week before; this was led by a +27.1 per cent rise in high streets, a +15.4 per cent uplift in retail parks, and +18.9 per cent in shopping centres.
Year on year, retail park growth was particularly strong from 5pm-11pm with footfall rising by +20.4 per cent in comparison to the same time period on Valentine's Day last year.
Looking ahead, there is cautious optimism among retailers. MRI Software’s weekly Insights from the Inside survey revealed that 55 per cent of retailers saw stronger sales during February’s half-term break compared to last year.
However, the outlook for March is more reserved, with 58 per cent of retailers expecting lower sales than in 2024 likely due to the later timing of Easter, which shifts key spending into April.
As the sector prepares for the upcoming Spring Budget, attention is turning to how financial policies may further influence consumer confidence and retail spending. Potential changes in tax, public spending, and household support will be closely monitored for its impact on disposable income and retail demand in the months ahead.
A leading retailers' body has called on to introduce interim pricing remedies to reduce card fees after a recent report showed that leading credit cards have been consistently increasing their processing fees, squeezing businesses' ability to invest and grow.
British Retail Consortium (BRC) today (6) raised a demand to introduce interim pricing remedies to reduce fees which have been an unjust burden on merchants, and working towards the introduction of a price cap in the longer term.
According to a report by Payment Systems Regulator (PSR), Mastercard and Visa increased their core scheme and processing fees to acquirers by at least 25 per cent since 2017, costing businesses at least £170 million extra per year.
This increased cost of doing business in the UK impacts on UK businesses’ ability to invest and grow, and could lead to direct economic constraints, particularly for small merchant, states the report.
In addition, a lack of easy-to-understand fee information has led to costs for acquirers and merchants, including small retailers.
The report also notes that existing alternative payment methods to cards do not exert effective competitive constraints on the fees charged by Mastercard and Visa for scheme and processing services.
Cards are the most popular way for consumers to pay for goods and services in the UK. In 2023, 61 per cent of all payments in the UK were made using cards, making up almost 86 per cent of the total value of retail transactions.
Data from BRC shows that in 2023 consumer credit and debit cards accounted for 85.7 per cent of the total value of retail transactions in the UK.
In 2012, cash was the most popular method of payment. However, since then, the use of cash has declined substantially, while cards have grown and are expected to grow even more.
Mastercard and Visa are central to this; over 95 per cent of transactions using UK issued cards are made on their rails.
However, merchants have been raising concerns about the cost of accepting cards and their limited ability to understand or negotiate fees.
Chris Owen, Payments Policy Advisor at BRC, said, "This report confirms the harms arising from the lack of competition in the card schemes market, with fees being introduced without justification or sufficient explanation.
"There has been a 25% increase in scheme fees since 2017 costing businesses an extra £170 million per year. It’s now time for meaningful action. Following the PSR’s findings, it is clear it must go further than the proposed remedies in its interim report.
"This means introducing interim pricing remedies to reduce fees which have been an unjust burden on merchants, and working towards the introduction of a price cap in the longer term."
Love was in the aisle this Valentine's as Brits spend almost £1 billion on flowers, gifts and dine-at-home meals with £962m was spent across Valentine's Day on food and gifting with £5.8m spent on toiletries gift packs and £19m on fragrances.
According to new data released today by NielsenIQ (NIQ), shoppers spent £137m on fresh ready meals (+2.9 per cent), nearly £11m on champagne (+5.7 per cent), and £38m on sparkling wine. There was also increased spend (+ 4.2 per cent) on impulse/confectionery as shoppers indulged in sweet treats to celebrate.
Discounters were the fastest growing channel (+6 per cent) whilst convenience store sales were down (-0.1 per cent).
Retailers embraced the occasion, with promotional spend contributing 24 per cent of sales, supported by continued investment in price cuts and Dine-In offers. While in-stores sales benefited the most (+4.3 per cent), online sales growth remained muted at +0.7 per cent, with market share declining to 12.9 per cent from 13.3 per cent a year ago.
Shoppers took advantage of these promotions with Valentine's food (excluding drinks) seeing value growth of +5.1 per cent and units growing at +0.6 per cent driven by cakes and morning goods indicating a new and affordable way to celebrate the day.
Over the four weeks, meat, fish and poultry was the fastest growing super category (+8.5 per cent) followed by dairy (+6.4 per cent) and produce (+5.7 per cent) as fresh foods were favoured over packaged grocery (+2.4 per cent) and frozen food growth was weaker (+0.7 per cent and -0.6 per cent units).
Beer, wine and spirits remained in decline (-2 per cent and -2.8 per cent in units).
Despite a slow start to the month, NIQ data reveals that grocery multiples saw their strongest growth leading up to Valentine's Day in the week ending 15th February driven by increased shopper visits (+5.9 per cent) as 17 per cent of households looked to celebrate and make special purchases.
Mike Watkins, Head of Retailer and Business Insight at NIQ said, "Retailers capitalised on the opportunities around Valentine's Day as shoppers wanted to create a special occasion at home.
"With the pinch of the cost of living, many shoppers dined in to save money this year, with premium food options growing and themed meals and gifts very much in vogue for treating loved ones.
"There are three things to consider looking ahead. Firstly, the GfK Consumer Confidence Index for February suggested that people don't expect the economy to show any dramatic signs of improvement and with many household bills, such as energy, water and council tax, increasing over the next few weeks, shoppers will be looking carefully at their discretionary spend."
He add, "Secondly, the recent sales trends in Hospitality from CGA show some weakness. Finally, the increase in food inflation reported by BRC NIQ this week looks to be a turning point.
"The overall impact will be that many shoppers will need to seek out more discounts when shopping, in particular from supermarket loyalty schemes - maybe switching some food and drink away from out-of-home to supermarkets."
The British Independent Retailers Association (BIRA) has expressed concern over the latest figures from the BRC-NIQ Shop Price Index for February 2025, saying that while overall shop prices remain in deflation, the rise in food prices is worrying for retailers and consumers alike.
The BRC report released on Tuesday (4) shows that shop price inflation was unchanged at -0.7 per cent while non-food inflation decreased to -2.1 per cent year on year in February.
However, food inflation increased to 2.1 per cent year on year in February, fresh Food inflation increased to 1.5 per cent year on year while ambient food inflation increased to 2.8 per cent year on year in February.
Andrew Goodacre, Bira CEO said, "The retail market is showing a split with essential categories such as food showing inflation and the non-essential sectors having to reduce prices (deflation) to drive sales.
"It is well known in retail that higher inflation in essentials (food, utilities and petrol are all increasing) has a disproportionate impact on consumer confidence and significantly reduces demand for the non-essential items.
"The extra costs for employers and the 140 per cent increase in business rates from April will add to inflation and continue to damage the wider high street supported by independent retailers."
Detailing on food inflation, Helen Dickinson OBE, Chief Executive of BRC, informed that breakfast, in particular, got more expensive as butter, cheese, eggs, bread and cereals all saw price hikes.
"Climbing global coffee prices could threaten to push the morning costs higher in the coming months. In non-food, month on month prices rose as January Sales promotions ended, especially in electricals and furniture. But discounting is still widespread in fashion as retailers tried to entice customers against a backdrop of weak demand.
"Inflation will likely rise across the board as the year progresses with geopolitical tensions running high and the imminent £7bn increase in costs from the Autumn Budget and the new poorly designed packaging levy arriving on the doorsteps of retailers.
"We expect food prices to be over 4% up by the second half of the year. If Government wants to keep inflation at bay, enable retailers to focus on growth, and help households, it must mitigate the swathe of costs facing the industry. It can start by ensuring no shop ends up paying more than they already do under the new business rates proposals, and delaying the new packaging taxes."