Legal tobacco sales have nearly halved since 2021 despite little change in the number of smokers, a recent report has shown, highlighting the scale of “out of control” illegally smuggled tobacco in the UK.
The number of cigarettes bought on the legal market fell by 45.5 per cent between 2021 and 2024 while over the same period the number of smokers declined by just 0.5 per cent.
According to the Institute of Economic Affairs, the only plausible explanation for this can be a rapid growth in tobacco sales on the black market.
Dr Christopher Snowdon said, "Official figures recently published by HMRC indicate a huge rise in illicit tobacco sales in the UK since 2021.
"The number of duty-paid cigarettes sold plummeted from 23.6 billion in 2021 to 13.2 billion in 2024, a decline of 44.4 per cent. In the same period, sales of duty-paid hand rolling tobacco (HRT) have dropped from 8.6 million kilograms to 4.5 million kilograms, a decline of 47.6 per cent.
"Overall, the number of cigarettes bought on the legal market fell by 45.5 per cent between 2021 and 2024.
"This unprecedented decline in legal tobacco sales occurred despite the number of smokers falling only modestly. When population growth is taken into account, the number of smokers declined by just 0.5 percentage points between 2021 and 2024, a relative decline of 5 per cent.
"Nor can the decline in legal sales be explained by smokers consuming fewer cigarettes. Research published last year found that daily cigarette consumption has remained stable since 2020 at around 10.5 cigarettes per smoker on average.”
Dr Snowden added, “The only plausible explanation for the collapse in legal tobacco sales is that there has been rapid growth in tobacco sales on the black market.
“These figures should act as a wake-up call to the government. Official estimates of the tobacco tax gap lack all credibility. It is clear that the illicit trade in Britain is very large and has grown dramatically since 2021.”
