The impacts of the Ukraine war have not even hit the UK’s supermarket shelves yet, the food and drink industry has warned, stating that the full effect is yet to hit the country.
Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February, energy prices and fertiliser costs have surged, while certain products such as vegetable oil have also increased in price.
Although this has caused high production costs for businesses, the Food and Drink Federation has warned these increased prices have yet to hit consumers, despite inflation hitting 9.1 per cent in May.
“It typically takes seven to 12 months for producer cost rises to filter into final consumer prices, which means that the real impacts of the conflict will begin to manifest towards the end of 2022 and start of 2023,” Dr Liliana Danila, economic policy manager for federation, said, speaking to the Standard.
“In terms of products, most food and drink production is energy intensive, which means most manufacturers are impacted, and most products will see some price rises due to the significant rise in energy costs.”
Food inflation currently stands at 6.7 per cent but the Food and Drink Federation has warned that figure will rise to 15 per cent by the end of the year and may remain high next year as the impact due to the war.
“Food inflation will remain high during 2023 and it’s unlikely that it will return to lower levels any time soon,” Danila added.
“The pandemic pushed up all costs- of agricultural commodities, labour, energy, international shipping, packaging, fertilisers, and we are currently in the midst of inflationary pressures brought on by the pandemic.
“The war in Ukraine gave a further push to prices of agricultural commodities, energy and fertilisers, which rose at an accelerated pace since the war started.
“So pressures on production costs have continued relentlessly, but these impacts are yet to filter through into final consumer prices.”
Speaking at a conference in Portugal this week, Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England, Britons should expect higher inflation for longer than other economies.
Around two thirds (65 per cent) of people affected by the Horizon scandal have said it impacted their family and relationships, while many respondents report estrangement from family members because of the scandal, according to a paper published today (1) by the Post Office Horizon IT Inquiry’s listening project.
The paper title In Your Own Words illustrates the various challenges the Horizon scandal has inflicted on people’s relationships, with respondents reporting the breakdown of relationships, estrangement from family members, and acute loneliness. Some adult children of former sub-postmasters shared how they experienced bullying, financial issues and mental health struggles because of the scandal. Others reported how their parents have died before knowing the truth about the Horizon scandal, which magnified their grief.
For many the post office was a family business legacy, making subsequent issues more impactful. Many reference their parents dying before knowing the truth about Horizon, magnifying the grief of these bereavements.
240 people — including current and former sub-postmasters, family and friends — have anonymously submitted their stories to In Your Own Words so far. This paper covers responses from March 2024 to August 2024.
Some of the anonymous responses mentioned in the paper are as follows:
"“I’m 66. I’ve lost 18 years of a good relationship with my daughter. I’ve lost me.”
“My children had their childhoods abruptly taken from them when the gravity of the situation became too serious for me to shield them any longer.”
“My mother was worried for us and put a lot of her savings into the account. These savings were meant to be left to her grandchildren a regret I will live with until I die.”
“Seeing the effect on my children was extremely difficult and remains a sore subject for me to this day.”
“We would like to clear Dad’s name, so that this isn’t a part of our families inherited trauma and that his memory left is true.”
“What amount of compensation would be adequate for the stress and pain endured over two decades? What would be considered sufficient?”
“The scandal put an enormous strain on our young family. Instead of enjoying the early years of our marriage and our daughter's childhood, we were consumed by the issues at the Post Office. The stress affected our relationship, leading to frequent arguments and a pervasive sense of frustration and helplessness. Our daughter, though too young to understand, was indirectly impacted by the tension and reduced quality time with her parents.”
“My wife has replaced thousands of pounds of money that she thought she had lost due to her illness and died feeling a failure.”
The wholesalers have welcomed several measures announced in Chancellor Rachel Reeves's first budget but have raised concern the increase in National Living Wage and Employers National Insurance contributions will add an estimated £110 million in direct wage costs to the wholesale sector.
The wholesalers also pointed out that the lack of clarity on business rates reform means that wholesalers operating large physical premises remain disproportionately impacted by high rates. Without meaningful reform and a set timeline, these businesses will continue to shoulder a heavier burden than those in sectors with minimal property overhead.
Responding to the budget statement, Federation of Wholesale Distributors (FWD) Chief Executive James Bielby stated, “We are pleased to see a number of positive steps in today’s budget that will bolster the wholesale sector. The freeze on fuel duty for another year is a welcome relief for wholesalers facing rising costs, allowing for greater stability in our operations.
“We also commend the government’s commitment to increasing support to combat retail crime, which is essential for protecting wholesalers, but we must ensure that wholesalers are included within this to ensure a safe environment for all businesses in the supply chain.
“Over the coming weeks, we look forward to working closely with the government to ensure that our members, who are central to driving economic growth, are given the support they need within an uncertain economic climate.”
Increase in Employer National Insurance contributions
Wholesale body pointed out that the planned increase in employer National Insurance contributions will significantly impact food and drink wholesalers who are already facing mounting operational costs.
With the Employer National Insurance contribution rate rising from 13.8% to 15.8%, this change represents an additional £30.9 million in yearly NI costs for the sector.
Bielby said, "This increase adds financial pressure on businesses striving to support their workforce while maintaining competitive pricing in a challenging market. We urge the government to set out what support will be provided to wholesalers, particularly the many small businesses that are the lifeblood of the country, to ensure they can continue to invest in their people and operations without compromising their viability.”
Fuel duty freeze and Alcohol duty increase
FWD has also welcomed the decision to freeze fuel duty for another year, which provides much-needed relief for wholesalers who rely on transportation to deliver goods.
Bielby pointed out that this freeze will help mitigate some of the financial pressures facing the sector, allowing businesses to manage costs more effectively.
Delaying the alcohol duty increase until February 2025 provides wholesalers some time to prepare, FWD stated. However, the rise will still present substantial challenges in terms of adjusting prices, managing stock, and maintaining supply chain stability.
Biekby said, "We encourage the government to collaborate with wholesalers to ensure the transition is smooth and that unintended consequences, such as increased costs and disruptions, are minimised.”
FWD has also welcome the government’s increased support to combat retail crime and the commitment to clamp down on organised crime. While these measures are crucial in protecting the retail sector, it is essential that the same level of attention and resources is extended to wholesalers, Bielby said, adding that the wholesale sector plays a vital role in the supply chain, and any rise in retail crime not only impacts its members directly but also has broader implications for the economy and society.
Raising caution in terms of tobacco tax, Bielby stated that the implementation of such measures must be carefully considered to ensure it works for wholesalers as well.
"A tax increase should not drive consumers towards illicit markets, which could undermine the goals of the health agenda and create further challenges for legitimate businesses," he said.
The Federation of Independent Retailers (The Fed) has launched an exclusive benefits scheme for Fed members.
Called FedPlus, the scheme offers a range of discounts on a host of goods and activities, from everyday purchases to luxury products.
Through FedPlus, Fed members will have access to a range of fantastic money-saving benefits covering a wide variety of areas – from health and well-being to home and car essentials, and from food and drink to fashion and tech, entertainment, travel and experiences.
There is a Savings Calculator to show how much has been saved, based on monthly or annual spending, on a range of everyday categories. The Savings Calculator will generate a personal savings total and provide links to the individual deals.
Launching FedPlus, National President Mo Razzaq said: “In my inaugural speech at the Fed’s Annual Conference in June, I spoke about the importance of providing more benefits to help members make money, save money and make business easier.
“Just four months on, we are delighted to bring you FedPlus. This is an exciting new addition to our ever-growing list of member benefits which brings you quick, at your fingertips access to several offers across a wide range of categories so the money in your wallets and purses goes even further in these financially strained times.”
Members can access the scheme through thefedonline.com website. It went live yesterday (October 31).
FedPlus is managed and run for the Fed by Parliament Hill Limited, which has been providing benefit management solutions for membership organisations for the past 20 years. Top name companies offering discounts include Virgin Experience Days, Nuffield Health, Hotpoint, Halfords, Boots, Curry’s and EE.
Tom Sparke, joint managing director and client services director at Parliament Hill, said: “We are looking forward to working with the Fed to assist them in the fantastic support that it provides for its members.
“The Fed has a strong commitment to supporting its members, which aligns with the Parliament Hill ethos of placing the needs of our clients’ members at the heart of what we do.”
Brewer Carlsberg is shifting some of its marketing focus to cheaper brands, it said on Thursday (31), as consumers in major markets bought cheaper beer and in reduced quantities.
The maker of Kronenbourg 1664, Tuborg and Somersby said beer sales volumes fell by 1.3 per cent in the third quarter, noting declines in China, France and the United Kingdom. Premium sales fell 0.5 per cent in the quarter."In Western Europe, there's no doubt that the average consumer is holding back," CEO Jacob Aarup-Andersen told Reuters.
"In Asia, China stands out as a market where the consumer is very weak. Most other Asian markets are actually okay," he said, adding the company had not yet seen Chinese stimulus measures having any impact on consumer behaviour.For years, brewers have relied on a strategy of developing and promoting their more expensive premium brands to offset an overall decline in drinking.
Aarup-Andersen said he remained confident in the long-term growth potential of premium beer and that the category will comprise a significantly larger portion of Carlsberg's business in a decade.For now, however, the company is adjusting its marketing.
"In markets where we are seeing a significant pressure on premium, we are reallocating some of our focus into making sure that we are promoting properly around the right mainstream brands," he said.
The world's third-largest brewer behind Anheuser-Busch Inbev and Heineken said third-quarter sales rose 1 per cent to 20.5 billion Danish crowns ($2.98 billion), compared with 20.7 billion expected on average by analysts in a poll gathered by the company.
Despite the shift in consumer behaviour, Carlsberg said it still expects full-year organic operating profit growth to be between 4 per cent and 6 per cent. The company lifted its full-year guidance in August.
Also on Thursday (31), the world's largest beer maker Anheuser-Busch InBev reported third-quarter profits, revenues and volumes behind forecasts. AB InBev's third-quarter statement highlighted stronger growth for its more expensive beers, like Corona, which grew 10.2% outside of its home market, Mexico, during the period.
Consumers now want a greater commitment from retailers in cutting food waste, refilling stations, sustainable packaging, and partnering with social purpose organisations, states a recent research, which also highlights that a good majority (69 per cent) of younger consumers are more likely to shop with what they see as socially responsible retailers though price sensitivity still plays a crucial role.
According to the findings, published in Vypr’s Consumer Horizon Report, reducing food waste is the most important factor for the majority of UK consumers (29 per cent), especially for Gen Z women aged 18-24 (38 per cent). More than a third (37 per cent) of men aged 18-24 said they needed food storage advice. A similar number of women aged 18-24 (33 per cent) want meal kits with the exact amount of ingredients included for them to cut down on food waste.
Refill stations for personal care, cleaning products, dry goods, and beverages are also in high demand. Consumers, particularly Gen Z women, are keen to use these stations, provided they offer a cost-saving of 6-10 per cent compared to packaged goods. The study indicates that older shoppers are less likely to use refill stations unless prices are reduced by 15 per cent or more, which Vypr said shows the importance of price in driving consumers to adopt sustainable shopping habits.
The third priority for brands and retailers is to adopt sustainable packaging. Awareness of eco-friendly packaging is high, especially among younger generations. Two-thirds of UK consumers say they expect to pay more for sustainably packaged products, and that figure rises to 86 per cent among Gen Z and Millennials. However, Vypr’s research suggests that while shoppers express willingness to pay more, price sensitivity still plays a crucial role.
Ben Davis, founder of Vypr, said: “There’s often a disconnect between consumer intentions and actions. Brands need to understand that simply offering sustainable options may not be enough if price points don’t match consumer expectations.
“For Gen Z and Millennials, sustainable products need to be competitively priced or risk losing long-term loyalty. We tested this by presenting products with and without the label ‘100 per cent Recycled Packaging’ and found price remained the key purchase decision-making factor for most consumers.”
Another factor in building loyalty among younger consumers is to showcase social responsibility. The research reveals that 60% of shoppers are more likely to shop at retailers that partner with food rescue organisations or promote a charitable cause. Among Gen Z and Millennials, this figure jumps to 69%, showing a strong preference for brands that demonstrate a social purpose.
The report also reveals that 85% of shoppers are willing to pay a deposit for reusable products, though it is younger consumers, particularly those aged 18-24 who express the strongest support for such initiatives.
The Consumer Horizon report which provides insights shaping retail, product innovation, and consumer behaviour going into 2025, can be seen here.