In these relatively good times for the convenience channel – some would say booming times –where enticing offers from symbol groups are thick on the ground, what does the franchise retail model have to offer in addition?
Mike Fitton is the man to ask. He joined Southern Co-op with a remit to turn its Welcome franchise into a formidable presence. Fitton has vast retail experience, having worked since 1990 with the multiples and afterwards with Budgens, Nisa and Spar, and he can cast a weathered eye over the sector when judging what will and will not work – and especially what retailers will and will not be happy within the somewhat more stringent franchise model.
Southern Co-op was established in Portsmouth in 1873, and is a big presence in the southern counties from Kent to Cornwall. The Welcome franchise is expanding steadily but not hastily, successful wherever it goes. That is down to the model and the management system set up by Mike Fitton, who understands independent retailers and the competing expectations of the group and the individual.
What a retail club is to a symbol group, a symbol group probably is to a franchise model. In each case there’s a step up in terms of both joining conditions and accrued advantages. To be a franchisee, at least with Welcome, which is closely affiliated to Southern Co-op, even down to the staff uniforms, you need to sign up for the whole package. Mike admits this is not for everyone, and everyone is not for Welcome, either. It’s all about finding the right people and the right relationships. Mike says he started to learn about that with Budgens.
“I joined Budgens in 1996,” he says.“That was my first introduction to independent retailers, once we decided to go the independent route. When I joined Budgens it was a company owned group, and then we decided to start doing some franchise stuff. And then eventually Musgrave saw what we were doing and bought the company and then sold it onto Booker’s.”
A new system
Welcome started as part of Southern Co-op when it acquired some stores back in 2007, and Mike was brought on board in 2012 to organise and develop the operation – something that went steadily but pretty slowly until about three years ago, mostly due to technological issues.
“I was taken on for that role – heading up the Welcome operation and pushing it forward. It was using the EPoS system that Manchester Co-op used for their company-owned stores, which is a great system for store managers, but it's not so great for independent retailers.”
It was OK for a time “because that's all there was”, he says.“And the retailers were mostly ex Alldays [bought by Co-op in 2002]. So joining from Alldays, they ended up getting the access to all the fruit and fresh, chilled, own-label and so on. Having an EPoS system that wasn't brilliant for the independent retailer, they could live with, because their sales were going straight up, from the ex-Alldays offer to what the Co-op offer was.”
What the EPoS system didn’t offer was the flexibility needed to attract new independents to the franchise.
“I started getting a lot of them saying things like, ‘Mike, can we have this, can we have some of this?’” he recalls.“But when they saw the EPoS system, because they already had the benefit of fresh food and things like that, albeit not the same as a Co-op, they said, ‘We can't use this system. It's just not for us.’”
The problem was that the company-wide EPoS tech could not give cost price and lacked the ability to price skus locally, which is what a regional organisation needed to give it the flexibility for success.
Mike says it slowed things down and there were not many new retailers added to the Welcome signage.
So two and a half years ago, they dropped the old Co-op system and installed a different one. “It's a new EPoS that we got from a company called VME, who also deal with other Cooperative societies,” he explains. And it was this which proved the turning point in perfecting the offer to prospective Welcome retailers. As Mike says, the system was already in use by a lot of other Co-op societies, and vitally, it details local depots and allows margins to be adjusted.
“And since then, we've managed to get all those retailers that wanted to join that hadn't so far. And that's been the start of our growth in the south.” he says. “In the last two years, we've added 28 new stores. And that's basically doubled our estate.”
Welcome Taunton Belvedere Gardens till area
That’s an explosive rate of growth, achieving in a very short time what Welcome had previously barely managed over more than a decade.
“We opened another store last Wednesday in a place called Carshalton, and we opened a store two weeks before that in Taunton, and one before that in in Colchester, and about that same time, one in Faversham in Kent,” Mike happily reels off the latest members of the franchise family.
The Welcome journey
“We don't just open a store and you might see somebody eight weeks later,” Fitton says of the “bespoke” route of acceptance into the Welcome family.
And on top of that, the regional location and identity seems to be vital. “We can only go so far and then our support starts dropping. I've had people reach out from all over the place saying, for example, can we do a store in Manchester? No, sorry, we don't go that far.”
Why not?
“We could do because we go off the back of the Co-op depot,” he answers.“The Co-op has depots all over the country. But how do I get an area manager to come and support you? My big point of difference, that I always play on – and it's sort of my history as well when I worked for other companies – is the support we give our franchisees.
“These are people, these are independent retailers, the money they're earning is for them and their families. And we understand that. So anything we can do to help them, we will do that. And the level of support we give them is far better than anybody else can.”
The key is the personal relationship and the physical presence – regular, nearby – that means an eye is constantly kept on the business and problems can be addressed immediately – something you can’t do from the other end of the country.
“We are there. So for example, before we opened Carshalton and Taunton, the first thing we did is talk to them: Do you want to join? They might say, ‘Yes, we do.’ And then one of my operations managers will get in touch and we'll hold their hand from then onwards. We will then look at the layout and suggest things for them. We don't just say,‘Look, come on board, join us and sign there and you're another number.’”
Mike says he cannot imagine getting to the point of having 300 stores, (“I can't see that happening in our area”) and adds the proviso that the stores have to be the right type. That doesn’t just mean they must be at least 1600 sq ft with a weekly turnover of at least £24k. Those are minimum requirements, beyond which there are further benchmarks in terms of presentation and service that must be met before a retailer can qualify for a Welcome sign – a bit like SAS selection for retailers?
On the contrary: Mike says that although it might not suit every retailer, the model is not exclusive or elitist but instead concerned with finding the right fit. He stresses that the selection procedure is for the retailer’s benefit, too, accepting that there are always niggles and objections, so it’s best to have them out in the open, “so the retailer knows us,” he says.
“We'd normally say to them to go and talk to our franchisees, and we would give them two or three addresses. And then they come back to us and say, ‘You know, we spoke to that person, we're really happy.’ And then we'll say, okay, nobody's perfect. Let's just go through some of the things that might annoy you with us.”
He says that for example, no EPoS system is perfect. “Every single one's got this little bit of a problem here or there: ‘Why did you do it that way?’ So we always say that if you come on board, you'll see this, this and this, which might not be you are used to but you’ll find it works, because all our 53 stores say they're happy with it. We're as upfront as possible so there's as few little surprises as possible.”
It is a strategy that is paying off.
“I was head of sales for Nisa, I was retail director for Spar Blakemore, I was head of franchise support for Budgens,” he says. “So I know how all those other companies will work. The difference between us and a fascia is that we give more far more support. And they will operate the stores under a lot more discipline.”
Too much disciple, though, will put people off and kill the local character of the store – flexibility is needed, as Mike goes on to explain.
“We are not a McDonald's franchise,” he stresses. “But we're not a symbol either. As you know, a symbol operator could join with a fascia, and then buy ten per cent of their stock from there, then go and do whatever else they wanted. With us, if we stock it in our depot, you have to buy it from us. But they have freedom to look at their retail prices, look at the range, get in local products, and then we are there to support them.”
The McDonalds example is a good one: join up and head office dictates your every move; the burger will taste the same here as in Beijing or Boston.
“Some people want that,” says Mike.“But if you’re a McDonald's franchise you can't sell fish and chips in a wrapper, even though it's a great idea, because it's not part of McDonald's.
“With us, if you've got a local version of fish and chips, for example, you can sell that in-store as long as it's ethically correct.”
How far does the tolerance or encouragement for local variation extend and what are the criteria?
“If you had a local supplier for, say, factory eggs from hens in battery farms, you can't do that,” Mike answers: it’s a standard sku that would come from depot, so you use the Co-op. “But if you've a local supplier who's got eggs from the local hatchery or a small producer, then they can sell as long as they are farmed correctly.”
Local. Ethical. It strikes me that the more paternalistic overtones of the franchise model are leavened by the flexibility.
“The store in Taunton that opened two or three weeks ago sells plants from the local nursery,” says Mike. “They've got greetings cards from a local supplier, they don't go with the big boys, they go with the local ones. And part of that is because they already had another store in Taunton, for ages, which swapped to Welcome as well last year. But they've had the same card supplier for 20 years. So why would you keep that out?”
It’s an viewpoint that has really caught the spirit of the past year, which has seen the opening of 15 new Welcomes despite the pandemic (“and the year before that we opened 13”). The local aspect has been magnified by the lockdown, strengthening ties between the stores and the local producers when there were national shortages.
“Yes,” says Mike, “we found that where the franchisees have gotten these long-term relationships with local suppliers, the local suppliers stepped up to the plate. It was a lifeline both ways.”
Mike says he knows that not every chain could have pulled off such logistical gymnastics. “There's a big tranche of stores out there couldn't have done anything with those local suppliers.” But because they've done it, new relationships have been forged and new friends made for the future. What is more, “They've got more kudos in the local community, because they kept that going. And our franchisees love it.”
How not to wear out a Welcome
Discipline makes everything work, and you can tell that Mike Fitton is a disciplined fellow. He knows exactly where he is coming from as a Co-op man but he understands what he can offer to the right retailers who can live with his rules – and what he can accept in terms of their individual variation within the franchise identity.
“From our point of view, from a Co-op point of view, the fact that the Co-op’s got the buying power that it does, it can develop new products, it can change ranges when it needs to, the Grow range, which I'm sure you're aware of came out about a year ago, that's grown – excuse the pun – that’s been growing a good percentage. And [Welcome] couldn’t have done that on our own, you need that buying power,” he says, acknowledging the big guns of a national organisation.
But Fitton’s ambitions for the Welcome group are not unlimited, and that is the secret of both its character and its success. Knowing the limits as a regional force safeguards against over-reach and the dilution of the personal element that makes everything work.
“For the next quite a few years, we're still going to be a certain size. We're going to grow quite nicely every year in our area where we can, with the right sort of stores, but also still give that personal touch where we know everybody. So if we're if we're high single, low double figures then that would be okay with us. And it's very much very much quality over quantity.”
Mike admits he is not really sure how many other groups there are in the country that could manage it. “Booker, Nisa and so on – they are all one big company, they don't have the secondary levels underneath them. The nearest you get to that, I suppose, would be Spar, with their separate wholesalers, and so all of those offer different spins on the Spar.”
Welcome sounds like a great club to belong too, but it is strictly limited membership. What are the other essentials a retailer needs to have to be in with a chance?
“They need to be in our area, of course,” Mike nods.“If you are south of the M4, if you are within the M25, we're happy to help. And they need to be a quality retailer. So when I do go and see them, I will go in their store, unannounced, and just see how their standards are, and if their standards aren't quite right, we will not be having the conversation!”
Everyone's got flexibility within the umbrella of the Co-op, he says, but only so far. “Our promotions, for example, are the same as the Co-op, they all come down every week, you cannot stop that. If one of our franchisees wanted to increase the price of a product, they've got the freedom to do that. But they can't turn off the Co-op promotions. So whereas with most other symbol groups, they could say, ‘I don't want to run that promotion’, with us, you cannot turn it off because you want to make a bit more margin. Sorry, you’ve got to buy in the whole thing.”
Buying into the whole ethos is the philosophy, as Fitton sums it up. People come because of the Co-op, so make the most of the opportunity:
“Embrace it, be part of it. And we don’t look at individual products, we do cost price, not wholesale price, right? So the way that works is we can't then give franchisees a ‘What's your price on this compared to what I'm paying currently?’ We say no, you can't do that, you need to look at the overall margin, not the price of cigarettes, or a can a drink or another product, which is what most people normally do – they give you the top 20 and or whatever, and say, ‘My price is cheaper and that's cheaper’. No. You have to embrace the whole thing. You're running it differently, you run it as an overall store, look at the overall margin for the shop and spend the time running the shop, and serving your customers and not looking at individual products. Just look at the overall margin and 53 franchisees growing by 15 stores and 13 sales for last two years. They can't be wrong.”
To cap it all, last year Welcome became a full member of the British Franchise Association, which is even harder to join than Welcome itself.
“We had to show all our processes, and they did an anonymous survey of all our franchisees, with a questionnaire on what they thought of us,” says Mike. “Currently, we're the only retail chain that's got full membership with the BFA. And we're quite proud of that,” he adds, with justifiable pride.
And finally, what’s the biggest complaint about Welcome?
The UK retail sector is bracing for a challenging but opportunity-filled 2025, according to Jacqui Baker, head of retail at RSM UK. While the industry grapples with rising costs and heightened crime, advancements in artificial intelligence and a revival of the high street offer potential pathways to growth, she said.
The latest Budget delivered a tough blow to the retail sector, exacerbating existing financial pressures. Retailers, who already shoulder a significant portion of business rates and rely heavily on a large workforce, face increased costs from rising employers’ National Insurance Contributions.
“Higher costs will also eat into available funds for future pay rises, benefits or pension contributions – hitting retailers’ cashflow in the short term and employees’ remuneration in the longer term,” Baker said.
“Retailers must get creative to manage their margins and attract footfall and spend, plus think outside the box to incentivise employees if they’re to hold onto talented staff.”
On the brighter side, falling inflation and lower interest rates could ease operational costs and restore consumer confidence, potentially driving retail spending upward.
High street resurgence
Consumers’ shopping habits are evolving, with a hybrid approach blending online and in-store purchases. According to RSM UK’s Consumer Outlook, 46 per cent of consumers prefer in-store shopping for weekly purchases, compared to 29 per cent for online, but the preference shifts to 47 per cent for online shopping for monthly buys and to 29 per cent for in-store. The most important in-store aspect for consumers was ease of finding products (59%), versus convenience (37%) for online.
“Tactile shopping experiences remain an integral part of the purchase journey for shoppers, so retailers need to prioritise convenience and the opportunity for discovery to bring consumers back to the high street,” Baker noted.
The government’s initiative to auction empty shops is expected to make brick-and-mortar stores more accessible to smaller, independent retailers, further boosting high street revival, she added.
A security guard stands in the doorway of a store in the Oxford Street retail area on December 13, 2024 in London, EnglandPhoto by Leon Neal/Getty Images
Meanwhile, retail crime, exacerbated by cost-of-living pressures, remains a significant concern, with shoplifting incidents reaching record highs. From organised social media-driven thefts to fraudulent delivery claims, the methods are becoming increasingly sophisticated.
“Crime has a knock-on effect on both margins and staff morale, so while the government is cracking down on retail crime, retailers also have a part to play by investing in data to prevent and detect theft,” Baker said.
“Data is extremely powerful in minimising losses and improving the overall operational efficiency of the business.”
AI as a game-changer
Artificial intelligence is emerging as a transformative force for the retail sector. From personalised product recommendations and inventory optimisation to immersive augmented reality experiences, AI is reshaping the shopping landscape.
“AI will undoubtedly become even more sophisticated over time, creating immersive and interactive experiences that bridge the gap between online and in-store. Emerging trends include hyper-personalisation throughout the entire shopping journey, autonomous stores and checkouts, and enhanced augmented reality experiences to “try” products before buying,” she said, adding that AI will be a “transformative investment” that determines the long-term viability of retail businesses.
The Amazon Fresh store in Ealing, LondonPhoto: Amazon
As financial pressures ease, sustainability is climbing up the consumer agenda. RSM’s Consumer Outlook found 46 per cent would pay more for products that are sustainably sourced, up from 28 per cent last year; while 44 per cent would pay more for products with environmentally friendly packaging, compared to 36 per cent last year.
“However, ESG concerns vary depending on age and income, holding greater importance among high earners and millennials. With financial pressures expected to continue easing next year, we anticipate a renewal of sustainability and environmentally conscious spending habits,” Baker noted.
“Retailers ought to tap into this by understanding the preferences of different demographics and most importantly, their target market.”
Southend-on-Sea City Council officials have secured food condemnation orders from Chelmsford Magistrates Court, resulting in the seizure and destruction of 1,100 unauthorised soft drinks.
The condemned drinks, including Mountain Dew, 7-UP, Mirinda, and G Fuel energy drinks, were found during routine inspections of food businesses across Southend by the council’s environmental health officers.
Council said these products contained either banned additives like Calcium Disodium EDTA or unauthorised novel ingredients such as Potassium Beta-hydroxybutyrate.
Calcium Disodium EDTA has been linked to potential reproductive and developmental effects and may contribute to colon cancer, according to some studies. Potassium Beta-hydroxybutyrate has not undergone safety assessments, making its inclusion in food products unlawful.
Independent analysis certified that the drinks failed to meet UK food safety standards. Magistrates ordered their destruction and ruled that the council's costs, expected to total close to £2,000, be recovered from the businesses involved.
“These products, clearly marketed towards children, contain banned or unauthorised ingredients. Southend-on-Sea City Council will always take action to protect the public, using enforcement powers to ensure unsafe products are removed from sale,” Cllr Kevin Robinson, cabinet member for regeneration, major projects, and regulatory services, said.
“As Christmas approaches, we hope this sends a strong message to businesses importing or selling such products: they risk significant costs and possible prosecution.”
The council urged residents to check labels when purchasing imported sweets and drinks, ensuring they include English-language details and a UK importer's address.
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A customer browses clothes inside Charity Super.Mkt at Brent Cross Shopping centre in north London on, December 17, 2024
Bursting with customers one afternoon the week before Christmas, a second-hand charity shop in London's Marylebone High Street looked even busier than the upscale retailers surrounding it.
One man grabbed two puzzle sets and a giant plush toy as a present for friends, another picked out a notebook for his wife.
“Since the end of September, we've seen a huge uplift in people coming to our shops and shopping pre-loved,” said Ollie Mead, who oversees the shop displays - currently glittering with Christmas decorations - for Oxfam charity stores around London.
At the chain of second-hand stores run by the British charity, shoppers can find used, or "pre-loved", toys, books, bric-a-brac and clothes for a fraction of the price of new items.
Popular for personal shopping, charity stores and online second-hand retailers are seeing an unlikely surge in interest for Christmas gifts, a time of year often criticised for promoting consumerism and generating waste.
A report last month by second-hand retail platform Vinted and consultants RetailEconomics found UK customers were set to spend £2 billion on second-hand Christmas gifts this year, around 10 per cent of the £20 billion Christmas gift market.
A woman browses some of the Christmas gift ideas in a store on December 13, 2024 in London, England. Photo by Leon Neal/Getty Images
In an Oxfam survey last year, 33 per cent were going to buy second-hand gifts for Christmas, up from 25 percent in 2021.
“This shift is evident on Vinted,” Adam Jay, Vinted's marketplace CEO, told AFP.
“We've observed an increase in UK members searching for 'gift' between October and December compared to the same period last year.”
According to Mead, who has gifted second-hand items for the last three Christmas seasons, sustainability concerns and cost-of-living pressures are “huge factors”.
Skimming the racks at the central London store, doctor Ed Burdett found a keychain and notebook for his wife.
“We're saving up at the moment, and she likes to give things another life. So it'll be the perfect thing for her,” Burdett, 50, told AFP.
“It's nice to spend less, and to know that it goes to a good place rather than to a high street shop.”
'Quirky, weird
Wayne Hemingway, designer and co-founder of Charity Super.Mkt, a brand which aims to put charity shops in empty shopping centres and high street spaces, has himself given second-hand Christmas gifts for “many, many years”.
“When I first started doing it, it was classed as quirky and weird,” he said, adding it was now going more “mainstream”.
Similarly, when he first started selling second-hand clothes over 40 years ago, “at Christmas your sales always nosedive(d) because everybody wanted new”.
Now, however, “we are seeing an increase at Christmas sales just like a new shop would”, Hemingway told AFP.
“Last weekend sales were crazy, the shop was mobbed,” he said, adding all his stores had seen a 20-percent higher than expected rise in sales in the weeks before Christmas.
“Things are changing for the better... It's gone from second-hand not being what you do at Christmas, to part of what you do.”
Young people are driving the trend by making more conscious fashion choices, and with a commitment to a “circular economy” and to “the idea of giving back (in) a society that is being more generous and fair,” he said.
At the store till, 56-year-old Jennifer Odibo was unconvinced.
Buying herself a striking orange jacket, she said she “loves vintage”.
But for most people, she confessed she would not get a used gift. “Christmas is special, it needs to be something they would cherish, something new,” said Odibo.
“For Christmas, I'll go and buy something nice, either at Selfridges or Fenwick,” she added, listing two iconic British department stores.
Hemingway conceded some shoppers “feel that people expect something new” at Christmas.
“We're on a journey. The world is on a journey, but it's got a long way to go,” he added.
According to Tetyana Solovey, a sociology researcher at the University of Manchester, “for some people, it could be a bit weird to celebrate it (Christmas) with reusing.”
“But it could be a shift in consciousness if we might be able to celebrate the new year by giving a second life to something,” Solovey told AFP.
“That could be a very sustainable approach to Christmas, which I think is quite wonderful.”
Lancashire Mind’s 11th Mental Elf fun run was its biggest and best yet – a sell-out event with more than 400 people running and walking in aid of the mental charity, plus dozens more volunteering to make the day a huge success.
The winter sun shone on Worden Park in Leyland as families gathered for either a 5K course, a 2K run, or a Challenge Yours’Elf distance which saw many people running 10K with the usual running gear replaced with jazzy elf leggings, tinsel and Christmas hats.
And now the pennies have been counted, Lancashire Mind has announced that the event raised a fantastic £17,000.
This amount of money allows Lancashire Mind to deliver, for example, its 10-week Bounce Forward resilience programme in eight schools, reaching more than 240 children with skills and strategies that they can carry with them throughout their lives, making them more likely to ‘bounce forward’ through tough times.
The event was headline sponsored by SPAR for a third year through its association with James Hall & Co. Ltd, SPAR UK’s primary retailer, wholesaler, and distributor for the North of England.
“On behalf of the entire team at Lancashire Mind, we want to extend a heartfelt thank you to the 400+ incredible participants who joined us for Mental Elf 2024!” said Organiser Nicola Tomkins, Community and Events Fundraiser at Lancashire Mind.
“Your support, energy and commitment to raising awareness for mental health makes all the difference. Together, we've taken another important step towards breaking the stigma around mental health and promoting wellbeing for all in our community. We couldn't have done it without you!”
Worden Hall became the hub of the event where people could enjoy music from the Worldwise Samba Drummers and BBC stars Jasmine and Gabriella T, plus lots of family friendly activities and a chance to meet Father Christmas. Pets also got in on the act in the best dressed dog competition.
Lancashire Mind CEO David Dunwell said: “It was heart-warming day, full of community spirit and festive cheer, but with a serious aim to raise funds for mental health.
“We are so grateful to everyone who bought a ticket and fundraised or donated to help us smash our target. The money raised goes directly to supporting Lancashire Mind’s life-changing mental health services. These funds help provide wellbeing coaching, support groups, and educational programmes to individuals and families in need of mental health support in our community.”
The concept of Mental Elf was created by Lancashire Mind and news of the event has spread right across the country in recent years, with around 40 other local Mind charities hosting a similar event in 2024.
Lancashire schools were also encouraged to host their own Mental Elf-themed event this year, whether that was a run, bake sale or dress up day, and raised more than £1,000 in total.
Philippa Harrington, Marketing Manager at James Hall & Co. Ltd, said: “There was a lovely festive feel in the air at Mental Elf and we were delighted to see even more individuals, families, and canine companions taking part in its new home of Worden Park.
“We are also very pleased to see the uptake that Mental Elf has had in schools, and congratulations go to the Lancashire Mind team for taking it to new participants and for raising a fantastic amount of money for an important cause.”
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A woman walks past a window display promoting an ongoing sale, on December 13, 2024 in London, England.
UK retail sales rose less than expected in the runup to Christmas, according to official data Friday that deals a fresh blow to government hopes of growing the economy.
Separate figures revealed a temporary reprieve for prime minister Keir Starmer, however, as public borrowing fell sharply in November.
The updates follow news this week of higher inflation in Britain - an outcome that caused the Bank of England on Thursday to leave interest rates unchanged.
Retail sales by volume grew 0.2 per cent in November after a drop of 0.7 per cent in October, the Office for National Statistics said Friday.
That was less than analysts' consensus for a 0.5-percent gain.
"It is critical delayed spending materialises this Christmas to mitigate the poor start to retail's all-important festive season," noted Nicholas Found, senior consultant at Retail Economics.
"However, cautiousness lingers, slowing momentum in the economy. Households continue to adjust to higher prices (and) elevated interest rates."
He added that consumers were focused on buying "carefully timed promotions and essentials, while deferring bigger purchases".
The ONS reported that supermarkets benefited from higher food sales.
"Clothing stores sales dipped sharply once again, as retailers reported tough trading conditions," said Hannah Finselbach, senior statistician at the ONS.
Retail sales rose 0.2% in November 2024, following a fall of 0.7% in October 2024.
Growth in supermarkets and other non-food stores was partly offset by a fall in clothing retailers.
The Labour government's net borrowing meanwhile dropped to £11.2 billion last month, the lowest November figure in three years on higher tax receipts and lower debt-interest, the ONS added.
The figure had been £18.2 billion in October.
"Borrowing remains subject to upside risks... due to sticky interest rates, driven by markets repricing for fewer cuts in 2025," forecast Elliott Jordan-Doak, senior UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
Jacqui Baker, head of retail at RSM UK and chair of ICAEW’s Retail Group, commented that the later than usual Black Friday weekend meant November’s retail sales figures saw only a slight uptick as cost-conscious consumers held off to bag a bargain.
“Despite many retailers launching Black Friday offers early, November trade got off to a slow start which dragged on for most of the month. This was driven by clothing which fell to its lowest level since January 2022. The only saving grace was half-term and Halloween spending helped to slightly offset disappointing sales throughout November,” Baker said.
“As consumer confidence continues to build and shoppers return to the high street, this should translate into more retail spending next year. However, there are big challenges coming down the track for the sector, so retailers will be banking on a consumer-led recovery to come to fruition so they can combat a surge in costs.”
Thomas Pugh, economist at RSM UK, added: “The tick up in retail sales volumes in November suggests that the stagnation which has gripped the UK economy since the summer continued into the final months of the year.
“While the recent strong pay growth numbers may make the Bank of England uncomfortable, it means that real incomes are growing at just under 3 per cent, which suggests consumer spending should gradually rise next year. However, consumers remain extremely cautious. The very sharp drop in clothing sales in particular could suggest that consumers are cutting back on non-essential purchases.
“We still expect a rise in consumer spending next year, due to strong wage growth and a gradual decline in the saving rate, to help drive an acceleration in GDP growth. But the risks are clearly building that cautious consumers choose to save rather than spend increases in income, raising the risk of weaker growth continuing through the first half of next year.”