Why brewers aren't worried about Wegovy users drinking less beer
A 0.25 mg injection pen of Novo Nordisk's weight-loss drug Wegovy is shown in this photo illustration in Oslo, Norway, September 1, 2023. (REUTERS/Victoria Klesty/Illustration/File Photo)
Global brewers AB InBev and Carlsberg this week played down concerns among some investors that demand for weight-loss drugs may lead to a sharp drop in beer drinking.
Huge demand for new treatments such as Novo Nordisk's Wegovy has prompted questions about the implications for a range of industries, including brewers, and sparked share sell offs in companies involved in everything from food to healthcare.
Surveys of current users offer some anecdotal evidence that the drugs dull their appetite for more than just food, with drinks and even tobacco potentially affected. Some respondents have reported reducing or cutting out alcohol altogether.
But AB InBev chief executive Michel Doukeris likened the concerns to others, such as how cannabis could disrupt various sectors, which he said were often short-lived.
"Two years down the road and that conversation is gone," he said in an interview after AB InBev's results on Tuesday, adding that forecasts showed beer drinking would rise.
While the world's biggest brewer was watching the data carefully, it was too limited to draw conclusions, he added.
Carlsberg's new chief executive Jacob Aarup-Andersen said on Tuesday that the world's third largest brewer had seen no "significant change" so far as a result of the use of weight-loss drugs, and that retailers had not mentioned any impact.
"It's early days and we can be proven wrong, but we are relaxed about it," he told Reuters after a trading update.
Both CEOs said their portfolios include low-calorie and low-carbohydrate beers, while they also have significant businesses in markets where obesity is less of an issue than in those where demand for weight-loss drugs is exploding.
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A bottle of AB InBev's Budweiser has around 116 calories, while one can of its zero-alcohol version has just 46. The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends a healthy adult should consume between 2,000 and 2,400 calories per day.
The WHO says alcohol consumption is a causal factor in more than 200 diseases, injuries and other health conditions.
As a result, brewers face more immediate threats than weight loss drugs from regulators and lawmakers which are aimed at limiting consumption, such as higher taxes and health warnings.
Glass half full?
One reason that Wegovy, the first highly effective weight-loss drug to market, and similar medications have triggered concerns is that they belong to a class called GLP-1 agonists.
These were originally developed to treat type 2 diabetes, but in addition to controlling blood sugar levels, they affect hunger signals to the brain and slow the rate at which a person's stomach empties, making them feel full for longer.
Some clinical trials on rodents have found treatment with GLP-1 agonists reduces alcohol consumption, eases symptoms of alcohol withdrawal and more.
Clinical trials with humans are limited and largely focused on people with alcohol use disorder, rather than consumption generally. A number are still underway.
One trial looking at the impact of a different GLP-1 agonist on alcohol intake among humans showed mixed results. It decreased total alcohol consumption for some, but not others.
Nevertheless, some investors are worried about the potential impact on brewers if such drugs reduce overall consumption.
"You have to drink something, but you don't have to drink beer," said Moritz Kronenberger, portfolio manager at Germany's Union Investment, adding he wants more proactive communication on the topic from the brewers, and more of their data.
Brewers could try to leverage relationships with big retailers to access data, Janus Henderson portfolio manager Tom O'Hara said, although any negative impact was likely to be small given brewers' diversified footprints and growth prospects.
"They shouldn't be complacent to it but equally they shouldn't worry too much," O'Hara said.
Overweight
With more than 650 million adults worldwide categorised as obese by the WHO and 1.3 billion more overweight, more than half a dozen big and small drugmakers are working on products similar to Wegovy.
Since its launch in 2021, Wegovy has been flying off the shelves in the US, where 40 per cent of the population is categorised as obese.
AB InBev has a big US business, but earns more revenue in the Middle Americas and has a large footprint in countries like Brazil. For Carlsberg, Asia, driven by China, represents its second-largest region by revenue, while the Danish brewer does not sell in the US.
Such emerging markets often have lower obesity rates, while weight-loss drugs are unlikely to be available or affordable there any time soon.
Local shops will face significant new pressures as a result of today’s Budget, the Association of Convenience Stores (ACS) has warned.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves' budget's impact will be felt unevenly across the UK’s 50,000 convenience stores, with some measures such as business rate relief and the increased employment allowance mitigating costs for smaller independent stores, while providing no help for chains and larger independent businesses.
The key measures for local shops announced by the Chancellor, and the costs for local shops associated with them, are:
National Living Wage to increase to £12.21 per hour
National Minimum Wage (18-20 rate) to increase to £10 per hour
Cost to the convenience sector next year: £7.739bn (increase of £513m)
Employers’ National Insurance Contributions to rise to 15 per cent
Threshold for Employers’ National Insurance contributions to fall to £5,000 per year
Employment Allowance to rise to £10,500 a year
Cost to the convenience sector next year: £397m (increase of £85m)
Retail and hospitality rate relief reduced from 75 per cent to 40 per cent
Small business multiplier frozen for 2025/26
Cost to the convenience sector: £267m (increase of £68m)
Total cost of main announcements (year-on-year difference): £666m
ACS Chief Executive James Lowman said: “The cold hard facts are that the measures announced in the past 24 hours have added two-thirds of a billion pounds to the direct cost base of the UK’s local shops. At a time when trade is tough and operating costs are stubbornly high, this will be challenging for our members to absorb and there will be some casualties on high streets and in villages and estates across the country.
“Not all shops will be impacted the same. The smallest retailers, with low NICs bills and lower rateable values for their shops, will benefit from the welcome increase in the employment allowance and the retention of 40% of the retail, hospitality and leisure business rates relief. Retailers with a larger store, a number of sites or those operating a chain will receive limited benefit from these mitigations, and this will impact their ability to invest and to continue to offer services in the communities they serve.
The following additional measures were announced by the Chancellor in the Budget speech today:
Flat rate levy on vaping liquids from October 2026 of £2.20 per 10ml
Fuel duty frozen and the 5p cut extended for another year
A new commitment to tackling shop theft and funding directed to tackling organised gangs
Lowman continued: “The Chancellor’s commitment to tackling shop theft will be warmly welcomed by our members, but they are interested only in action and in crime against their stores and their colleagues being tackled effectively. We stand ready to help implement a new, and better-funded strategy to stop shop theft, abuse and violence against our members.”
Parliament is to launch an inquiry into delays in compensation settlements for sub postmasters affected by the Horizon scandal.
The newly-formed Business and Trade Select Committee will call ministers, subpostmasters and their lawyers to give evidence next week with a second session to follow in mid-November. The Committee’s chair, Liam Byrne MP told ITV News that there was “definitely a delay” in people coming forward for payment.
“What we’re hearing from subpostmasters is that if there is an argument about how much should be paid out, the first offer is made quite quickly but if there’s a negotiation, that negotiation is dragging.
“We on the committee are going to batter away at this, week in, week out, until it is job done. All of us on our committee are frankly horrified and outraged by how long this has taken and we’re just not going to give up, ” he said.
Sir Alan Bates, the Post Office campaigner and chair of the Justice for Subpostmasters Alliance, is expected to be invited to give evidence. Earlier this month, Sir Alan states that his own claim had not been addressed and that he had written to prime minister Sir Keir Starmer asking for his intervention.
“Like many of the groups, my claim has not been completed. It’s ridiculous. I am one of just many in this position. This is why I wrote to the Prime Minister at the start of October, asking that he instruct the department to ensure that all claims – and I’m talking about in the GLO group, the original 555 – have been completed by March next year," he said.
This comes weeks after the Post Office's outgoing CEO agreed the government is using the company as a "shield" over compensation schemes. Nick Read, who resigned last month, was giving evidence at the Post Office Horizon IT Inquiry for the second day, with a focus on delays to victims' financial redress.
He also admitted that the compensation process has been "overly bureaucratic" and expressed "deep regret" that the Post Office had not lived up to delivering "speedy and fair redress".
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Bacup Wine and Convenience shop, 34 Burnley Road, Bacup.
A Rossendale shop has had a licence bid rejected after repeatedly selling vapes to children and having illegal products on its premises.
Management at the Ibra Superstore at 34 Burnley Road, Bacup, have shown ‘no regard’ for children’s protection and safety, and have insufficient controls for licensing, Rossendale councillors have ruled.
Ibrahim Mohammad, director of the Ibra Superstore, had recently applied to Rossendale Council for a new premises licence. But the borough’s licensing sub-committee rejected his bid after a meeting which heard allegations from the police and trading standards officers.
The Burnley Road shop has been subject to various licensing changes and concerns in recent years. In the past, it was called Bacup Wines.
Ibrahim Mohammad, the applicant, attended the Rossendale licensing sub-committe meeting with his father,Amin Mohammad. Also there was PC Mick Jones, of Lancashire Constabulary, and Jason Middleton of Lancashire Trading Standards. Councillor Bob Bauld attended as an observer.
Mr Mohammad wanted a premises license for alcohol sales and opening hours from 8am to 11pm, seven days a week. He already had a personal licence. He said the Bacup shop would install a CCTV system, keep an incident log and a refusals record, check customers’ ages, display information about staff and give them regular training.
Trading standards officer Jason Middleton said Ibra Superstore Ltd was incorporated as a company in April 2023. Since then, trading standards had received 11 complaints about under-age sales and carried out visits.
Breaches included non-compliant vapes being found which broke a 2ml limit on the quantity of nicotine-containing liquid, no age checks and no information on display.
During one visit, Amin Mohammad tried to leave with a bag containing 10 illegal vapes. In test purchases by trading standards, an ‘Elf Bar’ vape was sold to a 14-year-old by Amin Mohammad and an illegal Hayati Pro Max vape to a 13-year-old by Ibrahim Mohammad. The shop claimed a phone call distracted staff during the 13-year-old’s purchase and illegal vapes came from ‘a man in car’.
Councillors heard different speakers, looked at written reports and also some video footage from the applicant. But they rejected the premises licence bid.
Giving their reasons, they stated: “There was a repeated history and pattern of behaviour regarding under-age sales of age-restricted items, such as tobacco products and vapes to children. You must not sell vapes to anyone under the age of 18. This is a criminal offence which the council takes very seriously.
“It is clear you breached the law by failing a test purchase operation in which you sold an illegal vape to an under-age child. The sub-committee feels that you have no regard to the protection and safety of children.
“The sub-committee feels that there is insufficient management control at the premises. There is no credible system to prevent under-age sales of age-restricted products and no measures in place to avoid harm to children and to prevent crime and disorder
“Therefore, given the number of incidents, the circumstances surrounding the incidents and the fact that the matter involves safeguarding issues relating to young, vulnerable minors, we consider that the seriousness of the incidents and the crimes committed against young children undermines the licensing objectives to prevent crime and disorder, and protect children from harm.”
The shop has the right of appeal to a magistrates court within 21 days of the date of the notice.
SPAR North of England retailer Dara Singh Randhawa’s family store has been awarded £100,000 of free stock after hitting all his targets since moving to the symbol.
Dara and his family, who have their SPAR store in Patrington in the East Riding of Yorkshire, joined SPAR through its association with James Hall & Co. Ltd in August 2023 having taken the decision to maximise the store’s potential.
It is a decision they have not looked back on, with sales increasing by up to 25% and margins also showing significant uplift in the last 12 months.
Key to the store’s improved performance is the complete overhaul of products available in-store, particularly the fresh food range, to better support people who live in Patrington and the surrounding area.
A new store layout and refrigeration, better Food To Go and meal deal options, a coffee machine, and a Calippo slush machine were also installed during a major refurbishment prior to launch.
Dara said: “Our move to SPAR has been excellent. We have seen fantastic sales uplift and the support from the team at James Hall & Co. Ltd has been brilliant. The £100,000 of free stock is the cherry on the cake.
“We have been very impressed with the Price Locked promotions, in particular. These give customers confidence to do bigger shops with us as they see value on our shelves and the products at the same prices for longer.
“At times over the summer when tourists and visitors to the area add trade, we have seen sales £6,000 a week higher than our average. This is against a backdrop of the popular caravan park in the village being closed almost all year.
“We are really pleased with the position we are in, and we will be looking to achieve more in 2025.”
Peter Dodding, Sales Director at James Hall & Co. Ltd and Chairman of the SPAR Northern Guild, said: “Congratulations to Dara and the Randhawa family on hitting their targets and earning £100,000 of free stock.
“We recognise switching brand is a big decision for a retailer which is why this isn’t a gimmick, and we offer this to all retailers who join the SPAR family with James Hall & Co. Ltd.
“As well as our £100,000 incentive, we also offer retailers the chance to achieve up to an additional £5,000 of free stock if they successfully refer a friend.
“These opportunities provide additional motivation to retailers alongside the comprehensive benefits that joining the SPAR brand brings with it.”
James Hall & Co. Ltd is a fifth-generation family business which serves a network of independent SPAR retailers and company-owned SPAR stores across Northern England six days a week from its base at Bowland View in Preston.
The government has on Wednesday announced its acceptance of the Low Pay Commission’s (LPC) recommendations on the rates of the National Minimum Wage (NMW), including the National Living Wage (NLW).
The rates which will apply from 1 April 2025 are as follows:
NMW Rate
Increase (£)
Percentage increase
National Living Wage (21 and over)
£12.21
£0.77
6.7
18-20 Year Old Rate
£10.00
£1.40
16.3
16-17 Year Old Rate
£7.55
£1.15
18.0
Apprentice Rate
£7.55
£1.15
18.0
Accommodation Offset
£10.66
£0.67
6.7
The recommended NLW rate is expected to equal two-thirds of median earnings and to have the highest real value in the history of the UK’s minimum wage. The increase in the 18-20 Year Old Rate narrows the gap between that and the NLW, in anticipation of the adult rate being extended to 18 year olds in future years.
“The government have been clear about their ambitions for the National Minimum Wage and its importance in supporting workers’ living standards. At the same time, employers have had to deal with the adult rate rising over 20 per cent in two years, and the challenges that has created alongside other pressures to their cost base,” Baroness Philippa Stroud, chair of the LPC, said.
“It is our job to balance these considerations, ensuring the NLW provides a fair wage for the lowest-paid workers while taking account of economic factors. These rates secure a real-terms pay increase for the lowest-paid workers. Young workers will see substantial increases in their pay floor, making up some of the ground lost against the adult rate over time.”
Stroud admitted that the data show some signs of employers finding it harder to adapt to minimum wage increases.
“The tightening of the labour market since the pandemic has unwound, but the overall picture is similar to 2019. The economy is expected to grow over the next year, although productivity growth remains subdued,” she noted.
Business secretary Jonathan Reynolds said:
Good work and fair wages are in the interest of British business as much as British workers. This government is changing people’s lives for the better because we know that investing in the workforce leads to better productivity, better resilience and ultimately a stronger economy primed for growth.
The recommended increase in the 16-17 Year Old Rate restores that rate to its original value relative to the adult minimum wage. In line with previous recommendations, the Apprentice Rate will remain equal to the 16-17 Year Old Rate.